Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's population is around 9,863 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 384 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,479 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,731 in June 2024 and an additional 66 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,110 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 75.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing the area in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally. The area is expected to increase by 3,962 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 38.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park South Somerton has seen approximately six residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 33 homes were approved, with two more approved in FY26 so far. The population has declined recently, yet development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, benefiting buyers and offering new homes at an average construction cost of $251,000, below regional norms.

This financial year, there have been $4.6 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park South Somerton has significantly less development activity, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this activity is also lower, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift contrasts with the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 88.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. By 2041, Roxburgh Park South Somerton is projected to grow by 3,830 residents.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 14 such projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable among these are the extension of the Upfield Line to Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn, the Somerton Intermodal Terminal (Melbourne Intermodal Terminal), the upgrade of the Roxburgh Park Pavilion, and Roxy Central. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

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Employment conditions in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Roxburgh Park South Somerton has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominently represented. Its unemployment rate was 10.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9% over the past year. As of that date, 4364 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 6.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was lower at 60.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 17.5% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area had particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical employed only 5.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of 0.9 workers per resident indicated substantial local employment opportunities. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.9% and labour force grew by 1.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. Meanwhile, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a smaller rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Roxburgh Park South Somerton's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on 1st July 2023 for the financial year 2023, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $40,955. The average income stood at $46,573. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $44,334 (median) and $50,415 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, individual incomes lag at the 4th percentile with a weekly income of $517, while household income performs better at the 44th percentile. Distribution data shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates with 34.7% of residents (3,422 people), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton, as assessed at the latest Census, consisted of 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton stood at 25.9%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 50.6% and rented dwellings making up 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was recorded at $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were comparable at $375.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.2% of all households, including 51.7% couples with children, 16.8% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 12.7% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (16.6%). Educational participation is high at 35.3%, comprising secondary education (11.0%), primary education (9.8%), and tertiary education (7.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has 53 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that collectively facilitate 5,622 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the primary mode of transportation at 89%, while train usage stands at 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 17.5% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 803 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Roxburgh Park South Somerton faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population, around 4566 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.4% and 6.2% of residents respectively. Around 74.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Under-65s have better health outcomes than average. The area has 12.7% of residents aged 65 and over, around 1254 people, lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park South-Somerton has a high level of cultural diversity, with 51.2% of its population born overseas and 69.0% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in this area, comprising 42.7% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented at 37.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

Regarding ancestry, the top groups are Other (48.1%), Australian (11.1%), and English (8.0%). Notably, Lebanese ethnicity is overrepresented at 6.0% versus the regional average of 0.8%, Sri Lankan at 1.4% versus 0.8%, and Filipino at 3.2% versus 1.3%.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a median age of 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.1%), but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.3%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the proportion of residents aged 55 to 64 has increased from 12.5% to 14.7%, while those aged 65 to 74 have risen from 6.0% to 8.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 14.8% to 11.6%, and those aged 5 to 14 have dropped from 14.0% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 65 to 74 age group, which is expected to increase by 90%, adding 716 residents to reach a total of 1,515.