Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's population was around 9,911 as of Aug 2025. This reflected an increase of 432 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,479 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,731 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 70 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 1,116 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 75.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth, placing the area in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation, is predicted over the period with an expected increase of 3,962 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, indicating a total increase of 38.2% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park South Somerton has received approximately six residential approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development data on a financial year basis, showing 33 homes approved between FY21 and FY25, with none yet in FY26. Population decline suggests new supply may meet demand, providing good buyer choice.

Commercial approvals this year total $4.6 million, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park South Somerton has less development activity, supporting stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, activity is also lower, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 17% detached houses and 83% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition. By 2041, Roxburgh Park South Somerton is projected to gain 3,782 residents. If current construction levels persist, supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Looking ahead, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is expected to grow by 3,782 residents through to 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely to influence the region. Notable initiatives include Somerton Intermodal Terminal (Melbourne Intermodal Terminal), extending the Upfield Line to Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn, developing The Base Craigieburn, and upgrading Roxburgh Park Pavilion.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Roxburgh Park South - Somerton has a skilled labour force with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 10.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. There are 4,472 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 6.0%, above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation stands at 54.4%, below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing is particularly specialized with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Professional & technical employs only 5.6% of local workers, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, labour force grew by 4.5%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. As of Sep-25, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts project employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Roxburgh Park South - Somerton suggests local growth of approximately 6.1%% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton had a median taxpayer income of $39,012 and an average income of $44,886 in the financial year 2022. This was below the national average of $54,892 and Greater Melbourne's average of $73,761. By March 2025, estimated median and average incomes would be approximately $42,956 and $49,424 respectively, based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census reported individual incomes at the 5th percentile ($517 weekly) and household incomes at the 44th percentile. Income distribution showed that 34.7% of residents (3,439 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the surrounding region's 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 44th percentile.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. This is similar to Melbourne metro's distribution of 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton was higher at 25.9%, with mortgaged properties at 50.6% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of the latest data, was $1,647, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,834. The median weekly rent figure for Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton was $375, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower at $1,647 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.2% of all households, including 51.7% couples with children, 16.8% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households making up 12.7%, and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 26.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (16.6%).

Educational participation is high at 35.3%, including secondary education (11.0%), primary education (9.8%), and tertiary education (7.0%). Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,479 students. The area has varied educational conditions, with balanced provision including 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs at 25.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.5, indicating it serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has 51 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of train and bus routes, totalling 10 individual routes. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 8,891.

Residential accessibility to transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 217 metres from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,270 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 174 weekly trips per individual stop.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton had low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, but higher rates were seen in older, at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Private health cover was found to be relatively low, with approximately 49% of the total population (~4,866 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common conditions were asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.4% and 6.2% of residents respectively. 74.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.3% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 20XX (exact year not specified), 11.7% of residents were aged 65 and over (1,155 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a population where 51.2% were born overseas, with 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 42.7%. Islam is overrepresented at 37.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 24.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (48.1%), Australian (11.1%), and English (8.0%). Notably, Lebanese (6.0% vs regional 4.2%), Sri Lankan (1.4% vs 1.1%), and Filipino (3.2% vs 1.8%) groups are overrepresented.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 at 18.2%, but fewer residents aged 35-44 at 12.5%. This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 55 to 64 age group has increased from 12.5% to 14.5%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has grown from 6.0% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 14.8% to 12.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 14.0% to 12.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton, with the 65 to 74 cohort projected to grow by 105%, adding 777 residents to reach a total of 1,515.