Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's population was around 9,907 as of Nov 2025. This reflected an increase of 428 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,479 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,731 in June 2024 and an additional 69 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population resulted in a density ratio of 1,115 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 75.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally, was predicted over the period with an expected increase of 3,962 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 38.2% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park South Somerton has seen approximately six residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 33 homes were approved, with two more approved in FY26 so far. Despite a declining population in recent years, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, benefiting buyers due to affordable housing options, with new homes averaging an expected construction cost of $251,000, below regional norms.

This financial year, there have been $4.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne and nationally, Roxburgh Park South Somerton has significantly less development activity, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New developments consist of 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points suitable for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 88.0% houses. By 2041, Roxburgh Park South Somerton is expected to grow by 3,786 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Looking ahead, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is expected to grow by 3,786 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include the Upfield Line Extension to Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn, Somerton Intermodal Terminal (Melbourne Intermodal Terminal), Roxburgh Park Pavilion Upgrade, and Roxy Central. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Roxburgh Park South - Somerton has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 10.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9% over the past year.

There are 4,364 residents employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Melbourne's by 6.2%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags at 54.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.6% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. There is a ratio of 0.9 workers per resident, suggesting substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.9%, while the labour force grew by 1.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and a labour force growth of 3.3%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Roxburgh Park South - Somerton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $39,012 and an average income of $44,886. These figures are below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $43,756, with average income estimated at $50,344. The 2021 Census reports individual incomes at the 4th percentile ($517 weekly) and household incomes at the 44th percentile. Income distribution shows that 34.7% of residents (3,437 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the surrounding region's 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 82.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. This is similar to Melbourne metro's composition of 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton stood at 25.9%, with mortgaged properties at 50.6% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,834. The median weekly rent figure was $375, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 85.2% of all households, including 51.7% couples with children, 16.8% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 12.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (16.6%). Educational participation is high, with 35.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising secondary education (11.0%), primary education (9.8%), and tertiary education (7.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has 51 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus services. There are 10 routes operating in total, serving 8,891 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 217 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 1,270 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 174 weekly trips per individual stop.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton. Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average in older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 49% of the total population (~4,864 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are asthma (6.4%) and arthritis (6.2%). 74.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 76.3% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 11.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,155 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a population where 51.2% were born overseas, with 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in this area, comprising 42.7% of its population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented, making up 37.9%, which is substantially higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 24.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other at 48.1%, Australian at 11.1%, and English at 8.0%. Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Lebanese at 6.0% (regional average 4.2%), Sri Lankan at 1.4% (regional average 1.1%), and Filipino at 3.2% (regional average 1.8%).

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 at 18.2%, but fewer residents aged 35-44 at 12.5%. This 15-24 age group is well above the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the latest data, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 12.5% to 14.5%, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 6.0% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 14.8% to 12.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group dropped from 14.0% to 12.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton, with the 65 to 74 cohort projected to grow by 106%, adding 777 residents to reach a total of 1,515.