Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's population was around 9,699 as of May 2026. This reflected an increase of 220 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,479. The change was inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 9,699 in June 2025 and 64 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level equated to a density ratio of 1,092 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth, contributing approximately 76.7% of overall gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth was predicted over the period, with an expected increase of 3,935 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 40.6% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has approved approximately 6 residential properties annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 33 homes were granted approval. In FY-26, 2 homes have been approved so far.

The population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate development activity relative to other areas, benefiting buyers due to more affordable housing options with an average construction cost value of $251,000. This financial year has seen $4.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has significantly less development activity, being 94.0% below the regional average per person. The limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This trend is also evident when compared nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New developments consist of 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, providing more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This shift indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring diverse housing options. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is expected to grow by 3,935 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Twelve infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. These include major projects like Somerton Intermodal Terminal in Melbourne, Roxburgh Park Pavilion Upgrade, Roxy Central, and Halcyon Highlands - Over 55s Community. The following list details those considered most relevant.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Roxburgh Park South Somerton has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 9.3% as of December 2018. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 0.6%.

As of December 2025, there were 4,383 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 4.6%, which is above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Roxburgh Park South Somerton lagged significantly at 59.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 17.5% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area had a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Professional & technical employed just 5.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. There were 0.9 workers for each resident as at the Census, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.6%, while labour force decreased by 0.8%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Roxburgh Park South Somerton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $40,955 and an average of $46,573. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated median income is approximately $44,895 and average income is around $51,053 as of March 2026. The 2021 Census reports individual incomes at the 4th percentile ($517 weekly) but household incomes at the 44th percentile. Income distribution shows that 34.7% of residents (3,365 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the surrounding region's 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 82.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton had 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings in the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 25.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.6% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent was $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.2% of all households, including 51.7% couples with children, 16.8% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 12.7% and group households making up 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 26.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (16.6%). Educational participation is high at 35.3%, with 11.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has 53 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by 10 individual routes, providing a total of 5,622 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest stop. The area is primarily residential, with most residents commuting outward using cars (89%) and trains (7%). Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 17.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 803 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Roxburgh Park South - Somerton faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,490 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (6.4%) and arthritis (6.2%), with 74.8% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 12.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,199 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a population where 51.2% were born overseas and 69.0% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, with 42.7%. Islam is significantly higher than the Melbourne average at 37.9%.

In ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 48.1%, Australian is 11.1%, and English is 8.0%. Lebanese, Sri Lankan, and Filipino groups are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a median age of 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (17.8%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.4%). The proportion of residents aged 15-24 is also higher than the national average of 12.7%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 55 to 64 has increased from 12.5% to 14.6%, while those aged 65 to 74 have risen from 6.0% to 8.0%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has declined from 14.8% to 11.6%, and those aged 5 to 14 have dropped from 14.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton, with the strongest growth projected for the 65-74 age group, which is expected to increase by 92%, adding 715 residents to reach a total of 1,489.