Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton

An assessment of population growth drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's population is around 9,863 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 384 people (4.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,479 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,731 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 66 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,110 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 75.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of statistical areas across the nation, is predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 3,962 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 38.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has recorded around 6 residential properties granted approval each year, with 33 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 2 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, which is a positive for buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $251,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. There have also been $4.6 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has significantly less development activity. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New development consists of 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 88.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options.

Looking ahead, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is expected to grow by 3,830 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 14 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Upfield Line Extension to Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn, the Somerton Intermodal Terminal (Melbourne Intermodal Terminal), the Roxburgh Park Pavilion Upgrade, and Roxy Central, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton possesses a skilled workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 9.3%, and 0.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,383 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 4.6% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 17.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of 0.9 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates substantial local employment opportunities.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.6% and the labour force decreased by 0.8%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $40,955 with the average level standing at $46,573. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $44,334 (median) and $50,415 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, individual incomes lag at the 4th percentile ($517 weekly), while household income performs better at the 44th percentile. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 34.7% of residents (3,422 people), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton lagged that of Melbourne metro, at 25.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (50.6%) or rented (23.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,647, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are comparable to the national figure of $375.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 85.2% of all households, comprising 51.7% couples with children, 16.8% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 12.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 3.4 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (23.3%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 26.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (16.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 53 active transport stops operating within Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 10 individual routes, collectively providing 5,622 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 89%, with 7% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 17.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 803 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,566 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.4 and 6.2% of residents, respectively, while 74.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 12.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,254 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 51.2% of its population born overseas and 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is Christianity, making up 42.7% of the population. However, there is a significant overrepresentation of Islam, which comprises 37.9% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton are Other, comprising 48.1% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%), Australian, comprising 11.1% of the population (notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%), and English, comprising 8.0% of the population (notably lower than the regional average of 20.1%). Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Lebanese is overrepresented at 6.0% in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton (vs 0.8% regionally), Sri Lankan at 1.4% (vs 0.8%), and Filipino at 3.2% (vs 1.3%).

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

At 34 years, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's median age is somewhat lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and similarly considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a higher concentration of 15 - 24 residents (18.1%) but fewer 35 - 44 year-olds (12.3%). This 15 - 24 concentration is well above the national 12.5%. Since the 2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 12.5% to 14.7% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 6.0% to 8.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.8% to 11.6% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 14.0% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton. The 65 to 74 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 90%, adding 716 residents to reach 1,515.