Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's population is approximately 9,907 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 428 people, a 4.5% rise since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 9,479. The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 9,731 in June 2024 and an additional 69 validated new addresses post-Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,115 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.6% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, placing the area in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, based on latest population numbers, the area is expected to increase by 3,962 persons, a total increase of 38.2% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park South has seen approximately six residential approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 33 homes were approved, with one more granted in FY26 so far. The population decline in recent years has been matched by adequate development activity relative to other areas.

New homes are being built at an average cost of $251,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $4.6 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne and nationally, Roxburgh Park South has significantly less development activity, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. New developments consist of 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 88.0% houses. This change reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. By 2041, Roxburgh Park South is expected to grow by 3,786 residents.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include Somerton Intermodal Terminal (Melbourne Intermodal Terminal), Upfield Line Extension to Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn, Roxburgh Park Pavilion Upgrade, and Roxy Central. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Roxburgh Park South - Somerton has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominently represented. The unemployment rate was 10.7% in June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.6% over the past year.

As of this date, 4,472 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 6.0%, which is above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was 54.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a notable specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employed only 5.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. There were 0.9 workers per resident at the Census, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, while the labour force grew by 4.5%, resulting in a rise of 0.8 percentage points in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6%. Over ten years, this growth rate is projected to be 13.7%. Applying these projections to Roxburgh Park South - Somerton's employment mix indicates potential local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton had a median income among taxpayers of $39,012 in financial year 2022. The average income was $44,886 during the same period. These figures are below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $43,756 and average income will be around $50,344, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census showed individual incomes lagging at the 5th percentile ($517 weekly), while household income was at the 44th percentile. Income distribution data indicates that 34.7% of residents (3,437 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, which is similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 44th percentile.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. This is similar to Melbourne metro's distribution of 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton stood at 25.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.6% and rented ones at 23.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,834. Median weekly rent in the area was $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.2% of all households, including 51.7% couples with children, 16.8% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 12.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 26.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (16.6%). Educational participation is high at 35.3%, with 11.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,479 students. The area has varied educational conditions, with balanced provision including 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 25.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.5, indicating that the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has 51 active public transport stops operating. These are a mix of train and bus services. There are 10 individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 8,891 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 217 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,270 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 174 weekly trips per individual stop.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton had strong health metrics with low prevalence of common conditions in the general population. However, prevalence was higher than national averages for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover was relatively low at approximately 49% (~4,864 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions were asthma (6.4%) and arthritis (6.2%). 74.8% reported no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 76.3%. The area had 11.7% residents aged 65 and over (1,155 people). Health outcomes among seniors required more attention than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a population where 51.2% were born overseas, with 69.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton, comprising 42.7% of its population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented, making up 37.9%, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 24.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other at 48.1%, Australian at 11.1%, and English at 8.0%. Notably, Lebanese (6.0%), Sri Lankan (1.4%), and Filipino (3.2%) ethnic groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 4.2%, 1.1%, and 1.8% respectively.

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.2%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.5%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 55 to 64 has increased from 12.5% to 14.5%, while the 65 to 74 age group has risen from 6.0% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 14.8% to 12.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 14.0% to 12.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Roxburgh Park (South) - Somerton, with the 65 to 74 age cohort projected to grow by 106%, adding 777 residents to reach a total of 1,515.