Meadow Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Meadow Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to investigations by AreaSearch, the population of Meadow Heights stands at approximately 14,847 as of May 2026. This represents a decline of 43 individuals (0.3%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 14,890 residents. This shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 14,841 combined with 86 validated new addresses registered after the Census. The resulting population density is 3,206 persons per square kilometer, placing the locality in the top quartile of Australian areas analyzed. The primary driver of population growth has been overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 69.7% of all population increases recently.

Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024, using 2022 as a baseline, are used for each SA2. For areas lacking this data, projections rely on the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA releases, adjusted via weighted aggregation of growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Age cohort growth rates from these models are applied to all locations for the years 2032 to 2041. Future projections indicate substantial expansion in the top national quartile, with the population forecast to rise by 5,222 people to 2041 relative to the current annual ERP, representing a 35.1% total increase over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Meadow Heights is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Around 31 residential building approvals are granted annually in Meadow Heights, totaling 158 over the last 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 29 approvals have been logged. With the population declining recently, this rate of development has been relatively sufficient, which benefits buyers, and new homes carry an average construction value of $227,000—a figure below the regional average that points to more budget-friendly choices. Furthermore, $336,000 of commercial building approvals have been registered this financial year, reflecting quiet commercial building activity.

Building activity in Meadow Heights is significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average, sitting 83.0% below the regional per capita figure. This restricted new supply generally underpins demand and values for existing properties. Construction rates are also below national averages, reflecting the established state of the area and potential planning limitations. New approvals comprise 56.0% detached houses and 44.0% semi-detached dwellings or apartments, offering varied price alternatives ranging from family houses to compact options. This marks a clear departure from the current housing stock of 82.0% houses, showing a reduction in developable land, shifting resident needs, and demand for varied, affordable housing. There are approximately 634 residents for each dwelling approval, pointing to a mature market.

Future estimates indicate Meadow Heights will add 5,216 inhabitants by 2041 based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly projections. If construction remains at its current pace, housing availability may fall behind population gains, which could increase competition among buyers and support upward price pressure.

Meadow Heights has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, developments, and planning guidelines play a significant role in area performance. AreaSearch has identified 7 projects expected to influence the locality. Significant projects include the Meadow Heights Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Canadian Court Reserve Playspace Improvements, Redwood Close Reserve Playspace Upgrade, and the 1500 Pascoe Vale Road Business Park, with key details provided in the list below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Meadow Heights are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Meadow Heights has a skilled labor force, with a high concentration of workers in construction, an unemployment rate of 13.5%, and an estimated job growth rate of 4.9% over the past year. In March 2026, 5,057 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate of 8.7% was higher than the Greater Melbourne level of 4.8%, highlighting areas for progress. Labor force participation is also lower at 49.6% compared to 70.2% across Greater Melbourne. Census records show a moderate 13.8% of employed residents worked from home, though this may reflect pandemic lockdown measures.

The primary employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. The locality displays a high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment shares 2.0 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical roles are underrepresented, accounting for only 4.3% of local workers compared to 10.1% across Greater Melbourne. Comparing the Census working population against the resident population suggests this largely residential district provides few local job opportunities.

AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS figures shows that during the 12 months to March 2026, employment rose by 4.9% and the labor force shrank by 0.7%, resulting in a 4.6 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.1%, the labor force grow by 2.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.2 percentage points. National employment projections from May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide context for future local demand. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model potential growth. Nationwide employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though trends vary across sectors. Applying these industry rates to Meadow Heights indicates local employment could rise by 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, representing a basic weighted projection that does not factor in local population growth trends.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to aggregated ATO postcode data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023, the median taxpayer income in the Meadow Heights SA2 is $43,214, with an average of $49,012. These figures are below national benchmarks, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated figures for March 2026 are approximately $47,371 for the median and $53,727 for the average. Census data places household incomes in the 18th percentile ($1,274 weekly), and individual incomes in the 1st percentile. The income distribution is dominated by the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly bracket, which accounts for 30.2% of residents (4,483 people), close to the regional rate of 32.8%. Housing affordability is under pressure, with only 80.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 16th percentile.

Meadow Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

According to the latest Census, residential structures in Meadow Heights consisted of 82.3% houses and 17.7% other housing types like semi-detached properties and apartments, compared to 67.9% houses and 32.1% other housing types across Melbourne metro. Home ownership rates in Meadow Heights were slightly lower than the Melbourne average at 27.9%, with remaining properties held under mortgages (40.3%) or rented (31.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,460 was below the Melbourne metro average of $2,000, and the median weekly rent was $346 compared to the metro average of $390. Nationally, Meadow Heights has lower monthly mortgage costs than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national average of $375.

Meadow Heights features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up 82.4% of households, consisting of 44.3% couples with children, 16.8% couples without children, and 19.5% single-parent households. Non-family households account for 17.6%, with single-person households at 14.8% and group living situations at 2.9%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Meadow Heights faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The locality presents educational disparities, with university graduation rates at 17.9%, which is significantly below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This scenario provides an opportunity for targeted academic programs. Bachelor degrees represent 12.3% of qualifications, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.8% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational education is prominent, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding technical qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (16.6%).

Enrolment in formal education is high, with 35.1% of residents currently studying. This consists of 11.8% of the population in primary school, 9.5% in high school, and 5.6% in higher education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport options in Meadow Heights include 62 stops serviced by buses. These stops cover 7 routes, generating 1,863 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is rated highly, with residents living an average of 177 meters from the nearest stop. Because it is a residential suburb, most workers commute out of the area, and cars are the main transport mode at 91%. Vehicle ownership stands at 1.5 per household, which is higher than the regional average. Census figures from 2021 show 13.8% of residents worked from home, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

Daily bus services average 266 trips across all routes, which translates to roughly 30 weekly trips for each transport stop.

Health performance in Meadow Heights is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch evaluations of mortality rates and chronic illness prevalence point to health challenges in Meadow Heights, with common conditions visible across youth and older cohorts, alongside a low private health coverage rate of 46% of the population (~6,844 people). This is lower than the 56.7% rate in Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%.

Asthma and diabetes are the most common medical conditions, affecting 7.2% and 6.9% of residents. Meanwhile, 71.6% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health statistics for working-age residents are typical. Those aged 65 and over represent 14.0% of the population (2,077 people), lower than the Greater Melbourne share of 15.0%. Health outcomes for seniors present challenges, with national rankings aligning with the overall population.

Meadow Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Meadow Heights has high cultural diversity, with 50.0% of residents born outside Australia and 74.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Islam is the primary religion, followed by 52.7% of the population, compared to 5.6% in Greater Melbourne.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups represented in Meadow Heights are Other at 50.9% (higher than the regional average of 14.6%), Australian at 11.5% (lower than the regional average of 18.4%), and English at 8.9% (lower than the regional average of 20.1%). There is also a high representation of specific ethnic backgrounds, with Lebanese residents accounting for 8.5% of the area (compared to 0.8% regionally), Vietnamese at 3.6% (compared to 1.9%), and Samoan at 1.2% (compared to 0.3%).

Meadow Heights hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

The median age in Meadow Heights is 34 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Meadow Heights has a higher proportion of people aged 55 - 64 (12.5%) but fewer aged 35 - 44 (12.6%). Since the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 age bracket grew from 7.4% to 8.6%, while the 45 to 54 group fell from 12.2% to 11.1%. Demographic projections for 2041 suggest changes, with the 45 to 54 age group expected to see the largest growth at 49%, adding 806 residents to reach a total of 2,457.