Craigieburn - South

Craigieburn - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Craigieburn South's population is approximately 24,277 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 2,604 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,673. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 and the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,038 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Craigieburn South's growth rate of 12.0% since the 2021 census exceeds both the national average (9.7%) and state averages, indicating it as a growth leader in its region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 58.8% to recent population gains, with all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Population growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Craigieburn South is expected to experience exceptional population growth, placing it in the top 10% of national statistical areas. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 18,460 persons, reflecting a total increase of 75.2%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Craigieburn - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Craigieburn - South recorded approximately 142 residential properties approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 712 homes were granted approval, with a further 9 approved in FY-26. On average, about 4.8 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these years.

This indicates that supply is lagging behind demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost of new properties was around $248,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $25.4 million in commercial development approvals were recorded, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - South has roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 47th percentile of areas assessed nationally, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing properties.

New building activity in Craigieburn - South consists of 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options to cater to various price brackets. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (92.0%). The shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The area has approximately 366 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established population. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Craigieburn - South is projected to gain around 18,269 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Craigieburn - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Craigieburn West Precinct Structure Plan, Mickleham Fire Station (Donnybrook Road), Merrifield Masterplanned Community, and Merrifield City Shopping Centre. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Craigieburn - South faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Craigieburn - South has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 8.1% as of September 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 0.8% over the past year. As of September 2025, 11,739 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses in 2021, 18.6% of residents worked from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a high specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (1.9 times the regional level), but professional & technical employs only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.8% while labour force grew by 2.0%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Craigieburn - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,551 and an average level of $60,896. Both figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for median income would be approximately $57,969 as of September 2025, with average income estimated at $65,920 during the same period. Census data indicates household income ranks at the 55th percentile ($1,835 weekly) and personal income at the 23rd percentile. Distribution data shows that 39.7% of locals (9,637 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, which is slightly higher than the broader area's 32.8%. Housing costs consume 18.8% of income, leaving disposable income at the 52nd percentile.

Craigieburn - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Craigieburn - South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - South was at 17.7%, with mortgaged properties at 56.1% and rented ones at 26.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,900, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure for Craigieburn - South was $375, comparable to Melbourne metro's $390 but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Craigieburn - South's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863.

Craigieburn - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.0% of all households, including 53.7% couples with children, 17.1% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.0%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Craigieburn - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 25.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (18.2%). Educational participation is high at 35.8%, with 12.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn - South has 77 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 17 different routes, facilitating 9,210 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is deemed good with residents typically situated 228 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 88%, while trains account for 8%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 18.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 1,315 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 119 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Craigieburn - South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Craigieburn South demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 49% of Craigieburn South's total population (~11,944 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.6 and 5.3% of residents respectively. 78.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Craigieburn South has 8.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,937 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 14.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Craigieburn - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn-South, as of the 2016 Census, had a population where 49.4% were born overseas. A total of 61.7% spoke languages other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion with 46.1%.

The 'Other' category comprised 8.3%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%. In terms of ancestry, 'Other' topped at 39.0%, much higher than the regional average of 14.6%. Australian ancestry stood at 13.7%, while English was at 11.1%, notably lower than the region's 20.1%. Sri Lankan ancestry was overrepresented at 1.6% compared to the region's 0.8%. Indian ancestry was also high at 9.2% (regional average: 4.2%), and Samoan ancestry stood at 1.4%, significantly higher than the regional average of 0.3%.

Craigieburn - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn-South's median age is 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (1.9%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 55 to 64 has increased from 9.2% to 10.2%. Conversely, the age group of 25 to 34 has decreased from 16.5% to 14.2%, and the age group of 0 to 4 has dropped from 8.7% to 7.3%. Demographic projections suggest that Craigieburn-South's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45 to 54 age group, which is expected to grow by 117%, adding 3,358 residents to reach a total of 6,238.