Craigieburn - South

Craigieburn - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Craigieburn - South's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 24,447. This figure represents a growth of 2,774 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,673. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 24,431 in June 2025 and an additional 327 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,052 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Craigieburn - South's growth rate of 12.8% from 2021 to May 2026 exceeds both the state average (9.3%) and the national average, indicating significant population growth in the area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.1% of this overall population increase during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Craigieburn - South is expected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. By 2041, the area's population is projected to increase by 17,473 persons, reflecting a total increase of 71.4% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Craigieburn - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Craigieburn - South recorded approximately 142 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25712 homes were approved, with an additional 15 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 4.8 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these years.

This suggests that supply is lagging behind demand, which typically leads to increased buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost value of new properties was $248,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $25.4 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - South has roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 47th percentile of areas assessed nationally.

This indicates more limited housing choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing properties. New building activity shows that 67.0% are standalone homes and 33.0% are townhouses or apartments. This expansion in medium-density options creates a mix of opportunities across different price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 92.0% houses. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 366 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Craigieburn - South is forecasted to gain 17,457 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Craigieburn - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 33 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Craigieburn West Precinct Structure Plan, Merrifield Masterplanned Community, Mickleham Fire Station (Donnybrook Road), and Merrifield City Shopping Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Craigieburn - South faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Craigieburn - South has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 6.8% as of December 2025. Employment stability has been relatively consistent over the past year.

As of December 2025, 11,745 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Craigieburn - South was 67.3%, below Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 18.6% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area had a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services employed only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.2% while labour force decreased by 0.7%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Craigieburn - South's employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Craigieburn - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,551. The average income level was $60,896. Both figures were below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest median income would be approximately $58,703 by March 2026, with average income estimated at $66,754 during the same period. Census data indicates household income ranks at the 55th percentile ($1,835 weekly), while personal income sits at the 23rd percentile. Income distribution shows that 39.7% of locals (9,705 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which is slightly higher than the broader area's 32.8%. High housing costs consume 18.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile.

Craigieburn - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Craigieburn - South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - South stood at 17.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.1% and rented ones at 26.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,900, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Craigieburn - South was $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Craigieburn - South's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,900 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Craigieburn - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.0% of all households, including 53.7% couples with children, 17.1% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.0%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Craigieburn - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 25.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (18.2%). Educational participation is high, with 35.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.5% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 5.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn - South has 77 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are covered by 17 individual routes, offering a total of 9,210 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 228 meters to the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, with outward commuting being the norm. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 88%, while trains account for 8%. Vehicle ownership stands at 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 18.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 1,315 trips per day, translating to about 119 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Craigieburn - South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Craigieburn South shows better health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low overall but higher than national averages for older and at-risk groups. Approximately 49% of Craigieburn South residents have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions, affecting 6.6% and 5.3% of residents respectively. About 78.1% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 8.3% residents aged 65 and over (2,019 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Craigieburn - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn-South has a population where 49.4% were born overseas, with 61.7% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 46.1%. The 'Other' category, however, stands at 8.3%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' tops at 39.0%, compared to a regional average of 14.6%. Australian and English ancestries follow at 13.7% and 11.1% respectively, the latter notably lower than the region's average of 20.1%. Notably, Sri Lankan ancestry is overrepresented at 1.6%, compared to 0.8% regionally, while Indian is at 9.2% (vs 4.2%) and Samoan at 1.4% (vs 0.3%).

Craigieburn - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn-South's median age is 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.5%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (2.2%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, the population aged 55-64 has increased from 9.2% to 10.4%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 16.5% to 14.3%. The 0-4 age group has also dropped from 8.7% to 6.9%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Craigieburn-South, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 cohort (109%), adding 3,177 residents to reach a total of 6,101.