Craigieburn - South

Craigieburn - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Craigieburn - South's population is around 24,277 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,604 people (12.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,673 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,086 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 321 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,038 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Craigieburn - South's 12.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 58.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 18,460 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 75.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Craigieburn - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Craigieburn - South has experienced around 142 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 712 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 4.8 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, while new homes are being built at an average value of $248,000€—below regional norms€—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $25.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - South has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places within the 47th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. New building activity shows 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 92.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 366 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area.

Population forecasts indicate Craigieburn - South will gain 18,269 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Craigieburn - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 34 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Craigieburn West Precinct Structure Plan, Mickleham Fire Station (Donnybrook Road), Merrifield Masterplanned Community, and Merrifield City Shopping Centre, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Craigieburn - South are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Craigieburn - South possesses a skilled workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 6.8%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,745 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (68.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 18.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care and social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal and warehousing, with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional and technical services have a limited presence with 5.3% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.2% while the labour force decreased by 0.7%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.8 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, the labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Craigieburn - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Craigieburn - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Craigieburn - South SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $53,551 while the average income stands at $60,896. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,969 (median) and $65,920 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 55th percentile ($1,835 weekly), while personal income sits at the 23rd percentile. The earnings profile shows the largest segment comprises 39.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (9,637 residents), consistent with broader trends across the region showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 18.8% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 52nd percentile.

Craigieburn - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Craigieburn - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Craigieburn - South was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 17.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (56.1%) or rented (26.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,900, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Craigieburn - South's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are comparable to the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 85.0% of all households, comprising 53.7% couples with children, 17.1% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.0%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size of 3.3 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Craigieburn - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (25.7%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 29.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (18.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 77 active transport stops operating within Craigieburn - South, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 17 individual routes, collectively providing 9,210 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 228 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 88%, with 8% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 18.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,315 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 119 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Craigieburn - South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Craigieburn - South demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~11,944 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.6 and 5.3% of residents, respectively, while 78.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 8.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,053 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Craigieburn - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 49.4% of its population born overseas and 61.7% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Craigieburn - South is Christianity, which makes up 46.1% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Other, which comprises 8.3% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Craigieburn - South are Other, comprising 39.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Australian, comprising 13.7% of the population, and English, comprising 11.1% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 20.1%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is notably overrepresented at 1.6% of Craigieburn - South (vs 0.8% regionally), Indian at 9.2% (vs 4.2%) and Samoan at 1.4% (vs 0.3%).

Craigieburn - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 33, Craigieburn - South is materially younger than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and is substantially under Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - South has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (16.7%) but fewer 75 - 84 year-olds (2.2%). Since the 2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 9.2% to 10.5% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 16.5% to 13.7% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 8.7% to 7.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Craigieburn - South. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 113%, adding 3,307 residents to reach 6,238.