Craigieburn - South

Craigieburn - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Craigieburn - South's population was around 24,379 as of Nov 2025. This reflected an increase of 2,706 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,673. The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 24,086 in June 2024 and additional 321 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,046 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Craigieburn - South's growth of 12.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 58.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with base year 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, exceptional growth was predicted with an expected increase of 18,460 persons, reflecting a total increase of 74.5% over the 17-year period based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Craigieburn - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Craigieburn - South recorded approximately 142 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 712 homes were approved, with an additional seven approved so far in FY-26. On average, around 4.8 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these years.

This indicates substantial lagging supply compared to demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost value of new properties was $248,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, $25.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating balanced commercial development activity in the area compared to previous years. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - South records roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 47th percentile of areas assessed nationally.

This suggests more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing properties. New building activity in Craigieburn - South shows 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating an expanding range of medium-density options. This creates a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This is a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 92.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 366 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Craigieburn - South is forecasted to gain 18,167 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Craigieburn - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include Craigieburn West Precinct Structure Plan, Stockland Highlands Masterplanned Community, Merrifield Masterplanned Community, and Merrifield City Shopping Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Craigieburn - South faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Craigieburn South has a skilled labour force with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 8.1% in September 2025, which is 3.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 0.8%. As of September 2025, 11,739 residents were employed, with workforce participation at 61.6%, below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a specialisation in transport, postal & warehousing, employing 1.9 times the regional average, but professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.8%, while labour force grew by 2.0%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and a smaller unemployment rate increase of 0.3%. Statewide in Victoria, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, outpacing the national average growth of 0.14%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn South's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Craigieburn - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $51,010 and an average level of $58,690. These figures are below the national average and compare to $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $57,213 (median) and $65,827 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 55th percentile ($1,835 weekly), while personal income sits at the 23rd percentile. Distribution data shows that 39.7% of locals (9,678 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 18.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile.

Craigieburn - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Craigieburn - South, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - South was at 17.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (56.1%) or rented (26.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of the latest data available, was $1,900, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $375. Nationally, Craigieburn - South's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are comparable to the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.0% of all households, including 53.7% couples with children, 17.1% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.0%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Craigieburn - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 25.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 11.6% and certificates make up 18.2%. Educational participation is high at 35.8%, including 12.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 35.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn - South has 73 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 18 different routes that collectively facilitate 15,329 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 231 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 2,189 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 209 weekly trips per individual stop.

Craigieburn - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Craigieburn - South demonstrates excellent health outcomes, particularly for younger age groups with low prevalence of common conditions. Approximately 49% (~11,970 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent conditions (6.6% and 5.3%, respectively). Around 78.1% declare no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 76.3%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 8.0% (1,945 people), versus Greater Melbourne's 10.8%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Craigieburn - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn-South has a population where 49.4% were born overseas, with 61.7% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 46.1%. The category 'Other' is overrepresented in Craigieburn-South at 8.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.9%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (39.0%), Australian (13.7%), and English (11.1%). Notably, Sri Lankan (1.6% vs regional 1.1%), Indian (9.2% vs 6.5%), and Samoan (1.4% vs 1.3%) groups are overrepresented in Craigieburn-South.

Craigieburn - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn-South's median age is 32 years, which is notably younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (1.9%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 55 to 64 has increased from 9.2% to 10.2% of the population. Conversely, the age group of 25 to 34 has declined from 16.5% to 14.2%, and the age group of 0 to 4 has dropped from 8.7% to 7.3%. Demographic projections suggest that Craigieburn-South's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 45 to 54 age cohort, which is projected to increase by 116%, adding 3,346 residents to reach a total of 6,238.