Craigieburn - South

Craigieburn - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Craigieburn - South's population was approximately 24,277 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 2,604 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,673. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 and the Census date. The population density was around 2,038 persons per square kilometer. Craigieburn - South's growth rate of 12.0% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 58.8% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth, with the area expected to expand by 18,460 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 75.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Craigieburn - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Craigieburn - South has seen approximately 142 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 712 homes. As of FY-26, nine approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.8 new residents arrived annually for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates supply is lagging demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

The average construction cost of new homes in the area is $248,000, which is below regional norms, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $25.4 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, showing moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - South has about half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 47th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice. New building activity consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, offering a range of housing types from spacious family homes to compact options.

This shift reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. The area has approximately 366 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established population. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Craigieburn - South is forecasted to gain 18,269 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Craigieburn - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 34 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Craigieburn West Precinct Structure Plan, Mickleham Fire Station (Donnybrook Road), Merrifield Masterplanned Community, and Merrifield City Shopping Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Craigieburn - South are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Craigieburn - South has a skilled labour force with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 8.1% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 0.8%.

There were 11,739 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 3.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 18.6% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had limited presence with 5.3% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.8% while labour force increased by 2.0%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.0%, labour force expanded by 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn - South's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Craigieburn - South SA2 has an income below the national average. The median income is $53,551 and the average income stands at $60,896. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's figures are a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest approximately $57,969 (median) and $65,920 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 55th percentile ($1,835 weekly), while personal income sits at the 23rd percentile. The earnings profile indicates that the largest segment comprises 39.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (9,637 residents). This is consistent with broader trends across the region showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 18.8% of income, however strong earnings still place disposable income at the 52nd percentile.

Craigieburn - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Craigieburn - South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - South was at 17.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.1% and rented ones at 26.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,900, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Craigieburn - South was $375, similar to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Craigieburn - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.0% of all households, including 53.7% couples with children, 17.1% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.0%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Craigieburn - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 25.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (18.2%). Educational participation is high, with 35.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn - South has 77 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 17 routes, facilitating 9,210 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically residing 228 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most commuters travel outward, preferring cars at a rate of 88%, while train usage stands at 8%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 18.6% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Daily service frequency averages 1,315 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 119 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Craigieburn - South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Craigieburn - South shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 49% of Craigieburn - South's total population (~11,944 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.6%) and mental health issues (5.3%), with 78.1% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Only 8.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,053 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Craigieburn - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn-South, as of the latest data available (2016 Census), has a population where 49.4% were born overseas. A total of 61.7% spoke languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, with 46.1%.

The 'Other' category comprises 8.3%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%. In terms of ancestry, 'Other' tops at 39.0%, substantially above the regional average of 14.6%. Australian ancestry follows at 13.7% and English at 11.1%, notably lower than the region's average of 20.1%. Notably, Sri Lankan (1.6%), Indian (9.2%), and Samoan (1.4%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Craigieburn - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn-South has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn-South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (2.2%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 55-64 has grown from 9.2% to 10.5%, while the 25-34 age group has declined from 16.5% to 13.7%. The 0-4 age group has also decreased from 8.7% to 7.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Craigieburn-South, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 age cohort, expected to increase by 113% to reach 6,238 residents.