Roxburgh Park

Roxburgh Park lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Roxburgh Park's population is estimated at around 25,304. This reflects an increase of 1,175 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,129. AreaSearch estimates the resident population to be 25,097 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), with an additional 81 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 3,677 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with the suburb expected to grow by 12,430 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 48.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Roxburgh Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Roxburgh Park has seen approximately 30 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 151 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26 so far. Each dwelling built over these years is estimated to have gained an average of 2.5 new residents per year, suggesting strong demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value for new homes in Roxburgh Park is $431,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY-26, $4.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's predominantly residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park has significantly less development activity, at 90.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, development activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and potential development constraints. New building activity in Roxburgh Park shows a mix of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suitable for buyers seeking space.

This represents a shift from the area's existing housing stock, which is currently 90.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. With approximately 1137 people per dwelling approval, Roxburgh Park reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 12,284 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Roxburgh Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Eight projects identified by AreaSearch are likely to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. Key projects include Roxburgh Park Pavilion Upgrade, Halcyon Highlands - Over 55s Community, Upfield Line Extension to Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn, Somerton Intermodal Terminal (Melbourne Intermodal Terminal). The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Roxburgh Park face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Roxburgh Park has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 13.1%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.0%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 10,266 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 8.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was lower at 51.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.5% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.0% and labour force increased by 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insight into potential future demand within Roxburgh Park. These projections estimate national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Roxburgh Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates that income in Roxburgh Park is below the national average. The median assessed income is $35,691 and the average income stands at $41,066. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Roxburgh Park would be approximately $40,031 (median) and $46,060 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows individual incomes are at the 2nd percentile ($473 weekly), while household income is at the 43rd percentile. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.5% of the community (9,235 individuals), which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Roxburgh Park, with only 80.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 40th percentile.

Roxburgh Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Roxburgh Park's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.6% houses and 10.3% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Roxburgh Park stood at 21.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.6% and rented ones at 23.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,834 but still below the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Roxburgh Park was $390, higher than Melbourne metro's $369 and the national figure of $375.

Roxburgh Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.6% of all households, including 57.6% composed of couples with children, 14.3% consisting of couples without children, and 14.6% headed by single parents. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.4%, with lone person households at 10.9% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 25.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (15.4%). Educational participation is high at 37.7%, including primary education (11.7%), secondary education (11.6%), and tertiary education (6.4%).

Roxburgh Park's five schools have a combined enrollment of 3,123 students. The area has varied educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 942. Education provision is balanced with four primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents (12.3) are below the regional average (17.5), suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Roxburgh Park has 61 active public transport stops, a mix of train and bus services. These are operated by 9 different routes, together providing 8,242 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 256 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,177 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 135 weekly trips per individual stop.

Roxburgh Park's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Roxburgh Park. Younger cohorts in particular have a very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 43% of the total population (~10,936 people), compared to 49.1% across Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.2 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 76.8% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.3% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 20XX (the date of the report), 10.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,631 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, requiring more attention than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park has a population where 53.3% were born overseas, with 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 48.2% of the population. Islam is notably overrepresented at 36.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 24.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (55.0%), Australian (10.6%), and English (7.2%). Lebanese, Sri Lankan, and Samoan ethnic groups have notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages: Lebanese at 5.5% vs 4.2%, Sri Lankan at 1.3% vs 1.1%, and Samoan at 0.8% vs 1.3%.

Roxburgh Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Roxburgh Park has a median age of 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (18.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.2%). This 15-24 concentration is notably higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between 2021 and present, the age group of 55 to 64 has increased from 10.7% to 12.2% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort has risen from 5.2% to 6.6%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 16.4% to 14.5%. Demographic projections suggest that Roxburgh Park's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 65 to 74 age cohort expected to expand substantially, growing by 1,964 people (118%) from 1,670 to 3,635.