Roxburgh Park

Roxburgh Park lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Roxburgh Park statistical area (Lv2) is around 25,228. This reflects an increase of 1,099 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,129. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 25,065 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 81 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,666 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for population growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting with a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. For demographic trends up to 2041, exceptional growth is predicted for the Roxburgh Park (SA2), placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The area is expected to grow by 12,430 persons over this period, reflecting a gain of 49.0% in total population from 2025 to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Roxburgh Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Roxburgh Park has seen around 30 new homes approved each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 151 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY26. On average, for each dwelling built over these years, there was an increase of 2.5 new residents per year, indicating healthy demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $431,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. This financial year, $327,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park has significantly less development activity, with 90.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, this activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. The new building activity shows 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% medium and high-density housing, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 90.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 1137 people per dwelling approval, Roxburgh Park reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate that Roxburgh Park will gain 12,360 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Roxburgh Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 8 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include the Roxburgh Park Pavilion Upgrade, Halcyon Highlands - Over 55s Community, the Upfield Line Extension to Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn, and Somerton Intermodal Terminal (Melbourne Intermodal Terminal). The following list details those projects most relevant to the area.

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Employment conditions in Roxburgh Park face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Roxburgh Park's workforce is skilled with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 13.0%, showing a 1.2% employment growth over the past year according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

There are 10,122 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 8.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 51.6% versus Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level, but has lower professional & technical representation at 5.5% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2%, labour force by 1.8%, raising unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victorian employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7% compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Roxburgh Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Roxburgh Park has a median income of $35,691 and an average income of $41,066. This is below Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Roxburgh Park would be approximately $38,636 (median) and $44,454 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows individual incomes in Roxburgh Park are at the 2nd percentile ($473 weekly), while household incomes are at the 43rd percentile. Income brackets indicate that 36.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (9,208 individuals). Housing affordability pressures in Roxburgh Park are severe, with only 80.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 40th percentile.

Roxburgh Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Roxburgh Park's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.6% houses and 10.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Roxburgh Park stood at 21.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.6% and rented ones at 23.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,834, while the median weekly rent was $390, higher than Melbourne metro's figure of $369. Nationally, Roxburgh Park's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, but rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Roxburgh Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 87.6% of all households, including 57.6% couples with children, 14.3% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.4%, consisting of lone person households at 10.9% and group households at 1.6%. The median household size is 3.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 25.5% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 15.4%. Educational participation is high, with 37.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.7% in primary education, 11.6% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Roxburgh Park has 62 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 different routes that collectively facilitate 5,330 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility in the area is deemed good, with residents on average being located 257 meters from their nearest transport stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 761 trips per day, which translates to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Roxburgh Park's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Roxburgh Park, with younger cohorts in particular experiencing very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 43% of the total population (~10,903 people), compared to 49.5% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.2 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 76.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.3% across Greater Melbourne.

There are 10.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,623 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting some challenges that require more attention than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park has a population where 53.3% were born overseas, and 74.2% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, with 48.2%. Islam's representation is notably higher at 36.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 24.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (55.0%), Australian (10.6%), and English (7.2%). Roxburgh Park has notable overrepresentations of Lebanese (5.5% vs regional 4.2%), Sri Lankan (1.3% vs 1.1%), and Samoan (0.8% vs 1.3%) ethnic groups.

Roxburgh Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Roxburgh Park has a median age of 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (18.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.2%). This 15-24 concentration is above the national average of 12.5%. Between 2021 and present, the age group of 55 to 64 has increased from 10.7% to 12.2%, while the age group of 65 to 74 has grown from 5.2% to 6.6%. Conversely, the age group of 5 to 14 has declined from 16.4% to 14.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Roxburgh Park's age profile will change significantly. The age cohort of 65 to 74 is projected to expand substantially, increasing by 1,969 people (118%) from 1,665 to 3,635.