Roxburgh Park

Roxburgh Park lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Roxburgh Park is around 25,228, showing an increase of 1,099 people since the 2021 Census. This reflects a growth rate of 4.6%. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validated new addresses, is 25,065. This results in a population density ratio of 3,666 persons per square kilometer, placing Roxburgh Park in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains for Roxburgh Park during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by the first data set. By 2041, Roxburgh Park is predicted to grow by 12,430 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a total growth of 49.0% over the 17 years, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Roxburgh Park according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Roxburgh Park shows approximately 30 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 151 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY-26. Each dwelling built over the past five financial years has resulted in an average of 2.5 new residents per year, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average construction value of these new homes is $431,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting a focus on quality construction. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $327,000, reflecting a predominantly residential focus in the area. Comparatively, Roxburgh Park has significantly less development activity than Greater Melbourne (90.0% below the regional average per person). This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, building activity is also lower, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. The current building activity in Roxburgh Park consists of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes.

This shift from the existing housing stock (currently 90.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. With approximately 1137 people per dwelling approval, Roxburgh Park demonstrates a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate that the area will gain around 12,360 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Roxburgh Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to affect this region. Notable ones are Roxburgh Park Pavilion Upgrade, Halcyon Highlands - Over 55s Community, Upfield Line Extension to Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn, Somerton Intermodal Terminal (Melbourne Intermodal Terminal). The following list highlights those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Roxburgh Park face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Roxburgh Park has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate was 13.0% in September 2025, showing room for improvement compared to Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.2%.

As of September 2025, 10,123 residents were employed, with workforce participation at 57.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A moderate 17.0% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.5% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2%, while labour force increased by 1.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a smaller increase in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Roxburgh Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Roxburgh Park's postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows median income at $35,691 and average income at $41,066. Greater Melbourne's figures are median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $38,636 (median) and $44,454 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. Census 2021 data shows individual income at the 2nd percentile ($473 weekly) and household income at the 43rd percentile. Income brackets reveal that 36.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually (9,208 individuals), similar to Melbourne's metropolitan region at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 80.8% of income remaining after expenses, ranking at the 40th percentile.

Roxburgh Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Roxburgh Park's dwellings were 89.6% houses and 10.3% other types (semi-detached, apartments, etc.) in the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other types. Home ownership was 21.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.6% and rented ones at 23.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000 but above the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent was $390, matching Melbourne metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375.

Roxburgh Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.6% of all households, including 57.6% couples with children, 14.3% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.4%, with lone person households at 10.9% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size is 3.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Roxburgh Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 25.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (15.4%). Educational participation is high, with 37.7% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.7% in primary, 11.6% in secondary, and 6.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 37.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 11.6% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Roxburgh Park has 63 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 9 different routes that collectively facilitate 5,330 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 257 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting in Roxburgh Park is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 90% of residents, while only 6% use trains. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.8, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 17.0% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 761 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Roxburgh Park is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Roxburgh Park faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but particularly so among older cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 43% of the total population (~10,903 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 6.2 and 5.9% of residents respectively. However, 76.8% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population has better health outcomes than average. As of March 2021, the area has 11.2% of residents aged 65 and over (2,825 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Roxburgh Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Roxburgh Park has a high level of cultural diversity, with 53.3% of its population born overseas and 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Roxburgh Park, making up 48.2% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented, comprising 36.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (55.0%), Australian (10.6%), and English (7.2%). The Other group is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, while Australian and English are notably lower than their respective averages of 18.4% and 20.1%. Notable overrepresentations exist for Lebanese (5.5% vs 0.8%), Sri Lankan (1.3% vs 0.8%), and Samoan (0.8% vs 0.3%) groups in Roxburgh Park compared to regional averages.

Roxburgh Park hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Roxburgh Park has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Roxburgh Park has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 12.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, Roxburgh Park's population has seen changes in age distribution: the 65-74 age group increased from 5.2% to 7.1%, and the 55-64 cohort rose from 10.7% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group decreased from 16.4% to 14.1%, and the 45-54 age group dropped from 13.8% to 12.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Roxburgh Park's age profile, with the strongest growth expected in the 45-54 cohort, which is projected to grow by 59%, adding 1,891 residents to reach a total of 5,070.