Craigieburn - North West

Craigieburn - North West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Craigieburn - North West's population is approximately 11,198 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,356 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,842. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 and the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 5,832 persons per square kilometer, placing Craigieburn - North West in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 13.8% since the 2021 census exceeds both the national average (8.9%) and the state average. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate exceptional growth, with the area expected to grow by 8,534 persons to 2041, reflecting a 76.2% increase over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Craigieburn - North West when compared nationally

Craigieburn - North West averaged approximately 87 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 438 homes approved during this period and an additional 2 approved so far in FY26. This results in an average of 6.6 new residents arriving per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. The demand for housing significantly exceeds the supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition.

The average value of new dwellings developed is $101,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers in the area. In terms of commercial development, $25.0 million in approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - North West shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 15th percentile nationally when measured by areas assessed, leading to relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes.

The new building activity consists of 84.0% detached houses and 16.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited for buyers seeking space. With around 958 people per approval, Craigieburn - North West indicates a mature, established area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 8,534 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Craigieburn - North West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to influence the region: True North Estate, Greenvale North Part 2 Residential Development, Merrifield City Centre, and Merrifield City Shopping Centre. These are detailed below as they are most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Craigieburn - North West has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Craigieburn - North West has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 7.1% in September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 1.4%. There are 5,513 residents employed currently, with an unemployment rate of 9.8%, which is 2.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 7.4%. Workforce participation stands at 66.7%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among Craigieburn - North West residents are health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction.

Transport, postal & warehousing shows a notably high concentration with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. In the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.4%, while labour force grew by 2.4%. This resulted in an unemployment rate rise of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and a smaller increase in unemployment. As of 25-Nov-25, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13%, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, employment grew by 0.14% annually. Job and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn - North West's employment mix indicates local employment should grow by 6.4% in five years and 13.4% in ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Craigieburn - North West SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $58,027 and an average income of $66,765. These figures are slightly above the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. As of September 2025, estimated incomes based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $65,083 (median) and $74,884 (average). Census 2021 data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Craigieburn - North West between the 42nd and 57th percentiles. Income distribution shows 44.3% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, consistent with surrounding regions at 32.8%. High housing costs consume 21.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 51st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Craigieburn - North West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Craigieburn - North West, as per the latest Census, 92.6% of dwellings were houses, with 7.4% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Melbourne metro's 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - North West stood at 6.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.6% and rented ones at 31.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,907, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,834. The median weekly rent was $396, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Craigieburn - North West's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,907 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $396 compared to the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn - North West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.1% of all households, including 60.6% couples with children, 15.2% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 12.9%, consisting of 10.4% lone person households and 2.5% group households. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2 people.

The educational profile of Craigieburn - North West exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 33.9%, exceeding the SA3 average of 24.3% and the SA4 regional average of 27.7%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 30.3% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (14.9%) and certificates (15.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 37.2% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn - North West has 18 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two different routes that together facilitate 1,465 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average being located 226 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 209 trips per day, which equates to approximately 81 weekly trips per individual stop.

Craigieburn - North West's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Craigieburn - North West shows excellent health outcomes with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Its private health cover rate stands at approximately 52%, higher than the average SA2 area's 49.1%.

This compares to Greater Melbourne's 49.1%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (4.6%) and mental health issues (3.7%). Approximately 85.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 76.3%. The area has 5.5% of residents aged 65 and over (613 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.8%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require particular attention.

Craigieburn - North West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn-North West is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 58.6% of its population born overseas and 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home as of 2016 Census data. Christianity is the main religion in Craigieburn-North West, comprising 37.3% of people. However, 'Other' religions make up 15.9%, substantially higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 5.9%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' comprises 45.5%, Indian 17.0%, and Australian 10.1% of Craigieburn-North West's population, all notably higher than regional averages. Additionally, Sri Lankan (1.3%), Samoan (1.5%), and Lebanese (1.6%) ethnic groups are overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's averages.

Craigieburn - North West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn-North West's median age in 2021 was 31 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn-North West had a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (22.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.5%). The concentration of residents aged 35-44 was significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. Between 2021 and now, median age has increased from 30 to 31 years. During this period, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 grew from 7.8% to 9.8%, while those aged 65-74 increased from 2.6% to 4.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 declined from 20.7% to 16.0%, and the proportion of children aged 0-4 decreased from 12.0% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate significant changes for Craigieburn-North West. The number of residents aged 45-54 is projected to more than double, increasing by 1,534 people (139%) from 1,101 to 2,636.