Craigieburn - North West

Craigieburn - North West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Craigieburn - North West's population was approximately 11,198 as of February 2026. This represented an increase of 1,356 people from the 2021 Census figure of 9,842, indicating a growth rate of 13.8%. The change was inferred using ABS's estimated resident population of 11,198 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 5,832 persons per square kilometer, placing Craigieburn - North West among the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth exceeded both the national average (9.9%) and the state average during this period. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Craigieburn - North West's population is projected to grow by 8,534 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 76.2% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Craigieburn - North West when compared nationally

Craigieburn - North West has had approximately 87 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25438 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved in FY26 so far. On average, each home built over these years accommodates around 6.6 new residents annually.

This supply is significantly lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The construction cost of new properties averages $101,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $25.0 million, indicating balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - North West has about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks in the 15th percentile nationally for property choices, suggesting limited buyer options and supporting demand for existing dwellings. New developments consist of 84% detached houses and 16% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character and attracting space-seeking buyers. With approximately 958 people per dwelling approval, it demonstrates an established market. By 2041, Craigieburn - North West is projected to gain 8,534 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Craigieburn - North West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to impact the area: True North Estate, Greenvale North Part 2 Residential Development, Merrifield City Centre, and Merrifield City Shopping Centre. The following details these key projects:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Craigieburn - North West recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Craigieburn - North West has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 7.1% in September 2025, with estimated employment growth of 1.4% over the past year. As of that date, 5,513 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation stood at 74.4%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 18.5% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing had employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 6.2% of Craigieburn - North West's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.4%, while labour force grew by 2.4%, resulting in a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a smaller increase in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn - North West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Craigieburn - North West SA2's median income among taxpayers was $60,918 and average income stood at $69,274 in financial year 2023. These figures are above Greater Melbourne's respective median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. As of September 2025, current estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% project median income to be approximately $65,944 and average income to be around $74,989. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Craigieburn - North West rank modestly, between the 42nd and 57th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The data shows that 44.3% of residents (4,960 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing costs consume 21.3% of income in Craigieburn - North West, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 51st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Craigieburn - North West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Craigieburn - North West's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 92.6% houses and 7.4% other dwellings. Melbourne metro, in comparison, had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - North West was at 6.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.6% and rented ones at 31.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,907, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $396, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Craigieburn - North West's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn - North West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.1% of all households, including 60.6% couples with children, 15.2% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.4% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Craigieburn - North West exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 33.9% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA3 area average of 24.3% and the SA4 regional rate of 27.7%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 30.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 14.9% and certificates at 15.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 37.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn - North West has 19 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by three individual routes, providing a total of 1,179 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 metres from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 86%, while train usage stands at 8%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.5, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 18.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 168 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 62 weekly trips per individual stop.

Craigieburn - North West's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Craigieburn - North West. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups.

Private health cover was approximately 54% of the total population (~6,035 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions were asthma (4.6%) and mental health issues (3.7%). 85.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The area had 6.0% of residents aged 65 and over (670 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Craigieburn - North West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn - North West has a population where 58.6% were born overseas, with 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 37.3%. The category 'Other' comprises 15.9%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' makes up 45.5%, Indian 17.0% and Australian 10.1%. Compared to regional averages, Craigieburn - North West has notably higher percentages for Sri Lankan (1.3%), Samoan (1.5%) and Lebanese (1.6%).

Craigieburn - North West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn - North West's median age in 2021 was 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and significantly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - North West had a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (18.7%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.8%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds was well above the national average of 12.1%. Between 2021 and present, demographic aging has occurred with the median age increasing from 30 to 31 years. During this period, notable shifts include the 45-54 age group growing from 7.8% to 10.2%, and the 65-74 cohort increasing from 2.6% to 4.3%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 20.7% to 15.2%, and the 0-4 age group dropped from 12.0% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Craigieburn - North West, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to more than double, expanding by 1,490 people (130%) from 1,145 to 2,636.