Craigieburn - North West

Craigieburn - North West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Craigieburn - North West's population is around 11,198 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,356 people (13.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,842 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,198 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 5,832 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought resource. Craigieburn - North West's 13.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 54.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to grow by 8,534 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 76.2% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Craigieburn - North West when compared nationally

Craigieburn - North West has experienced around 87 dwellings receiving development approval each year, with 438 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 2 so far in FY-26. At an average of 6.6 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition, leading to pricing pressures, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $101,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $25.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - North West records about three-quarters the building activity per person while it places among the 15th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing dwellings. New development consists of 84.0% detached houses and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 958 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Population forecasts indicate Craigieburn - North West will gain 8,534 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Craigieburn - North West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include True North Estate, Greenvale North Part 2 Residential Development, Merrifield City Centre, and Merrifield City Shopping Centre, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Craigieburn - North West recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Craigieburn - North West has a well-educated workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 6.1%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,499 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.4% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 18.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. The area shows particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 6.2% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.5% while employment declined by 0.1%, resulting in the unemployment rate falling by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Craigieburn - North West. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Craigieburn - North West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Craigieburn - North West SA2's median income among taxpayers is $60,918, with an average of $69,274. This is slightly above average nationally, and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $65,944 (median) and $74,989 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Craigieburn - North West, between the 42nd and 57th percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 44.3% of locals (4,960 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 21.3% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 51st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Craigieburn - North West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Craigieburn - North West, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 92.6% houses and 7.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Craigieburn - North West was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 6.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (62.6%) or rented (31.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,907, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $396, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Craigieburn - North West's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn - North West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 87.1% of all households, comprising 60.6% couples with children, 15.2% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.4% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size of 3.4 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Craigieburn - North West exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (33.9% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the SA3 area average of 24.3% and that of the SA4 region (27.7%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (14.9%) and certificates (15.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 37.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 19 active transport stops operating within Craigieburn - North West, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 1,179 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 86%, with 8% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 18.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 168 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 62 weekly trips per individual stop.

Craigieburn - North West's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Craigieburn - North West, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 54% of the total population (~6,035 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be asthma and mental health issues, impacting 4.6 and 3.7% of residents, respectively, while 85.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 6.0% of residents aged 65 and over (670 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Craigieburn - North West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn - North West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 58.6% of its population born overseas and 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Craigieburn - North West is Christianity, which makes up 37.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Other, which comprises 15.9% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Craigieburn - North West are Other, comprising 45.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Indian, comprising 17.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.2%, and Australian, comprising 10.1% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Craigieburn - North West (vs 0.8% regionally), Samoan at 1.5% (vs 0.3%) and Lebanese at 1.6% (vs 0.8%).

Craigieburn - North West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 31 years, Craigieburn - North West's median age is notably under the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is significantly lower than the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - North West has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (18.7%) but fewer 55 - 64 year-olds (5.8%). This 5 - 14 concentration is well above the national 12.1%. In the period since 2021, demographic aging is evident with the median age advancing from 30 to 31 years. Notable shifts include the 45 to 54 age group, which has grown from 7.8% to 10.2% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 2.6% to 4.3%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 20.7% to 15.2% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 12.0% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Craigieburn - North West. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to more than double, expanding by 1,490 people (130%) from 1,145 to 2,636.