Meadow Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Meadow Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Meadow Heights' population is estimated at around 15,012. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,890. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 14,960 residents in Jun 2024, based on ABS ERP data and 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,242 persons per square kilometer, placing Meadow Heights in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in Meadow Heights' population, with an expected expansion of 5,331 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a gain of 35.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Meadow Heights, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Meadow Heights averaged approximately 31 new dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 158 homes were approved, with an additional 11 approved so far in FY-26. The population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $301,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options. This financial year, there have been $336,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Meadow Heights has markedly lower building activity, 84.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Nationally, this is also lower, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity comprises 55.0% standalone homes and 45.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 82.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 635 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections estimate Meadow Heights to add 5,279 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Meadow Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to impact this region. Notable projects include Meadow Heights Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Canadian Court Reserve Playspace Improvements, Redwood Close Reserve Playspace Upgrade, and 1500 Pascoe Vale Road Business Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Meadow Heights face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Meadow Heights has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 17.4% as of June 2025, compared to Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%. As of June 2025, 5,022 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 12.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation in Meadow Heights lagged at 43.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment concentration is high in health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

The area shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 4.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Meadow Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released in financial year 2022, Meadow Heights had a median taxpayer income of $38,897 and an average income of $45,666. These figures are lower than the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $43,627, with average income at around $51,219. Census data shows household income ranks at the 18th percentile ($1,274 weekly), while personal income is at the 1st percentile. Income distribution reveals that 30.2% of residents (4,533 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 16th percentile.

Meadow Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Meadow Heights, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 82.3% houses and 17.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Meadow Heights was 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.3% and rented dwellings at 31.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,460, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,834. The median weekly rent in Meadow Heights was $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Meadow Heights's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Meadow Heights features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.4% of all households, including 44.3% couples with children, 16.8% couples without children, and 19.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.6%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Meadow Heights faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 17.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (16.6%). Educational participation is high, with 35.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.8% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 5.6% in tertiary education.

Meadow Heights Primary School and Bethal Primary School serve a total of 651 students and have an ICSEA score of 920. Both schools focus on primary education, with secondary options available nearby due to limited local school capacity (4.3 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.5).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Meadow Heights shows that there are 63 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 7 individual routes providing service. Together, these routes facilitate 3,058 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to transport for residents is rated as excellent, with an average distance of 177 meters from their homes to the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 436 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

Meadow Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Meadow Heights residents generally have good health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions compared to the national average but higher among older, at-risk groups. Private health cover is low, at 45% (6,756 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.1%. The most common conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 7.2% and 6.9% respectively, with 71.6% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 76.3%.

Meadow Heights has a higher proportion of seniors (13.6%, 2,041 people) than Greater Melbourne (10.8%). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to these challenges.

Meadow Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Meadow Heights has a population where 50.0% were born overseas, and 74.3% speak a language other than English at home. The dominant religion is Islam, practiced by 52.7% of Meadow Heights residents, compared to 24.1% in Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (50.9%), Australian (11.5%), and English (8.9%).

Notably, Lebanese ancestry is higher at 8.5%, Vietnamese at 3.6%, and Samoan at 1.2%.

Meadow Heights hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Meadow Heights's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Meadow Heights has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.3%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population of those aged 65 to 74 has grown from 7.4% to 8.3%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 45 to 54 has declined from 12.2% to 11.3%. Population forecasts for Meadow Heights in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the strongest projected growth occurring in the 65 to 74 age group, which is expected to grow by 69%, adding 857 residents and reaching a total of 2,103.