Gowanbrae

Population growth drivers in Gowanbrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, Gowanbrae's estimated population is around 3,034. This shows an increase of 63 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,971. The current population was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation using latest ERP data (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,889 persons per square kilometer, placing Gowanbrae in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area (released in 2024 with a base year of 2022), and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections (adjustments made by weighted aggregation) for areas not covered. Future projections anticipate significant population increase, forecasting Gowanbrae to gain 1,142 persons by 2041, reflecting a 37.3% total increase over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gowanbrae, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Gowanbrae averaged around 2 new dwelling approvals each year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 11 homes were approved, with a further 4 approved in FY-26 to date. Over the past five financial years, an average of 1.8 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. However, this figure has intensified to 6.8 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $886,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, there have been $23,000 in commercial approvals, showing minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gowanbrae shows substantially reduced construction, at 89.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, although recent periods have seen increased development activity. The area's recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, sustaining its suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (69.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 1010 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections show Gowanbrae adding 1,133 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Gowanbrae has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Five projects, identified by AreaSearch, are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Artisan Architects' 18-22 Howes Street Apartments project, the 17-25 Earl Street Airport West Development, and two other initiatives at 12 Howes Street Airport West Apartments and 19-21 Louis Street Airport West. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Gowanbrae demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Gowanbrae has a well-educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate is 2.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.7%. As of September 2025, 1,873 residents are employed, with a workforce participation rate of 67.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Transport, postal & warehousing shows strong specialization (1.6 times the regional level).

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 11.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 14.2%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, labour force by 1.5%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.3 percentage point unemployment rise. State-level data (25-Nov) shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gowanbrae suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Gowanbrae has lower income compared to national averages. The median income is $52,938 and the average is $61,913. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $57,688 and the average is $75,164. As of September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,305 (median) and $67,021 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. Census data indicates that Gowanbrae's incomes cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. The income analysis shows that 29.2% of residents (885 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to Melbourne's metropolitan region at 32.8%. Notably, 34.6% of residents earn above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income, and residents rank within the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gowanbrae displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Gowanbrae, as per the latest Census evaluation, 69.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 31.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 62.8% houses and 37.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gowanbrae stood at 32.9%, higher than Melbourne metro's level. The majority of dwellings were mortgaged (53.9%), with the rest rented (13.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $445, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $381 respectively. Nationally, Gowanbrae's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Gowanbrae features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 77.1% of all households, including 41.7% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.9%, with lone person households at 21.2% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gowanbrae demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Gowanbrae trail Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks. As of the latest data, 29.1% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to 37.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%).

Trade and technical skills also feature prominently, with 31.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (18.6%). Educational participation is notably high in Gowanbrae, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in secondary education, 9.7% in primary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis indicates that Gowanbrae has 14 operational public transport stops. These are served by buses only, with a total of 368 weekly passenger trips provided collectively by the routes. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 103 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

Service frequency averages 52 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gowanbrae is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Gowanbrae shows superior health outcomes, with low prevalence rates for common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 51% (~1,557 people) of the population have private health cover, which is relatively low. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.2%) and arthritis (7.0%). About 72.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.2% in Greater Melbourne. Gowanbrae has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.2% (491 people), compared to 14.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Gowanbrae was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gowanbrae's population shows higher cultural diversity than most nearby areas, with 24.6% born overseas and 29.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Gowanbrae, accounting for 61.1%, compared to 43.9% in Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (18.3%), English (18.0%), and Italian (14.2%).

Notably, Croatian (1.8%) and Maltese (2.9%) populations exceed regional averages of 0.7% and 1.7%, respectively, while Sri Lankan residents (1.3%) are also higher than the regional average of 0.6%.

Gowanbrae's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Gowanbrae has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 cohort is notably over-represented in Gowanbrae at 15.2%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 11.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 12.4% to 14.5%, and the 55-64 cohort has grown from 10.1% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 14.3% to 12.1%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 16.3% to 15.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Gowanbrae's age profile will change significantly, with the 55-64 age cohort projected to grow by 186 people (53%), from 351 to 538.