Gowanbrae

Population growth drivers in Gowanbrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Gowanbrae is around 3,037, an increase of 66 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,971. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation based on the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. The population density ratio stands at 2,892 persons per square kilometer, placing Gowanbrae in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55% of overall population gains during recent periods. For projections until 2041, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted by weighted aggregation method for non-covered areas.

Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Gowanbrae is forecasted to increase its population by 1,142 persons, reflecting a total increase of 37.2% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gowanbrae, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Gowanbrae has averaged approximately two new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around ten homes were approved, with four more approved in FY26 so far. On average, about two people moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years. However, this ratio has increased to 6.8 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $886,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. This year, there have been $23,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gowanbrae shows significantly reduced construction levels, with 90.0% below the regional average per person. Recent development has consisted entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's suburban identity and catering to buyers seeking space. The location currently has approximately 1010 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Gowanbrae is projected to add 1,130 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Gowanbrae has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Artisan Architects' 18-22 Howes Street Apartments, the 17-25 Earl Street Airport West Development, and 12 Howes Street Airport West Apartments, along with 19-21 Louis Street Airport West. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Gowanbrae demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Gowanbrae has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 2.5% as of June 2025, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.5%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 1,906 residents were in work, with a workforce participation rate of 67.4%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. However, transport, postal & warehousing shows particularly strong specialization, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance is under-represented, at 11.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 14.2%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 4.5%, while labour force increased by 4.3%, leading to a decrease in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and an increase in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Gowanbrae. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Gowanbrae's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Gowanbrae is lower than average nationally. The median income is $52,938 and the average is $61,913. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Gowanbrae would be approximately $59,375 (median) and $69,442 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that incomes in Gowanbrae cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 29.2% of residents (886 people). This pattern is similar to metropolitan regions where 32.8% occupy this range. There is a substantial proportion of high earners in Gowanbrae, with 34.6% earning above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity throughout the suburb. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income. Residents' earnings rank them within the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gowanbrae displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gowanbrae's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.0% houses and 31.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 62.8% houses and 37.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gowanbrae was higher than Melbourne metro at 32.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (53.9%) or rented (13.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Gowanbrae was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while median weekly rent was $445 compared to Melbourne metro's $381. Nationally, Gowanbrae's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially exceeded the national figure of $375.

Gowanbrae features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.1 percent of all households, including 41.7 percent couples with children, 23.3 percent couples without children, and 11.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.9 percent, with lone person households at 21.2 percent and group households making up 1.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gowanbrae demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Gowanbrae trail Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks. 29.1% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (18.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in secondary education, 9.7% in primary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gowanbrae has 14 active public transport stops. These are all bus stops. There is only one route servicing these stops, which together provide 284 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest stop is 103 meters. On average, there are 40 trips per day across all routes, resulting in about 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gowanbrae is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Gowanbrae shows better-than-average health outcomes, with low prevalence rates for common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51%, slightly lower than the average SA2 area figure (~1,559 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.2%) and arthritis (7.0%), while 72.5% of residents report no medical ailments, comparable to Greater Melbourne's 72.2%. Residents aged 65 and over make up 16.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 14.0% (~491 people). Seniors' health outcomes are above average, similar to the general population's profile.

Gowanbrae was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Gowanbrae's population showed high cultural diversity, with 24.6% born overseas and 29.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Gowanbrae, comprising 61.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 43.9%. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (18.3%), English (18.0%), and Italian (14.2%).

Notably, Croatian ancestry was overrepresented at 1.8% in Gowanbrae versus 0.7% regionally, Maltese at 2.9% vs 1.7%, and Sri Lankan at 1.3% vs 0.6%.

Gowanbrae's median age exceeds the national pattern

Gowanbrae has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 45-54 cohort is notably over-represented in Gowanbrae at 15.2%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.4% to 14.5% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 10.1% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 14.3% to 12.1%, and the 45 to 54 age group dropped from 16.3% to 15.2%. Demographic modeling indicates that Gowanbrae's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 55 to 64 age cohort projected to grow substantially, increasing by 185 people (53%) from 352 to 538.