Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie
Statistical Area - sa2

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is around 17,172 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,130 people from the 2021 Census figure of 16,042, indicating a growth rate of 7.0%. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 17,160 in June 2024 and an additional 368 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,511 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's growth rate is within 1.6 percentage points of the national average of 8.6%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 93.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting with a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering these projections and demographic shifts, the area is expected to have above median population growth nationally, increasing by 2,664 persons to reach 19,836 by 2041, reflecting an increase of 15.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has averaged approximately 116 new dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, indicating 581 homes approved over the past five financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional eight approvals in FY-26 to date. Over these five years, an average of 0.3 people per year moved to the area for each dwelling built, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand. This offers ample buyer choice and creates capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $1,178,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. There have also been $495,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 56th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which currently consist of 54.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

With around 277 people per dwelling approval, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows a developing market with an expected population growth of 2,648 residents through to 2041 at current development rates. This should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects likely to impact this area. Key projects include LUMA Sunshine North, Buckley Street Level Crossing Removal, Airport Toyota Expansion, and Maribyrnong River Master Plan Implementation. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.7% as of June 2025, which is 0.9% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 6.6% over the past year. As of June 2025, there were 10,414 residents employed, with workforce participation at 67.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. The area has a specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, but manufacturing shows lower representation at 5.4% versus the regional average of 7.2%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data comparison between working population and resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 6.6%, while labour force grew by 7.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Essendon West - Aberfeldie's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has high postcode level ATO incomes. The median is $64,292 and average is $101,289. Greater Melbourne's median income is $54,892 with an average of $73,761. Applying a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 are approximately $70,792 (median) and $111,529 (average). Census data from 2021 ranks Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's household, family, and personal incomes between the 78th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that 29.0% of locals earn $1,500-$2,999 weekly, aligning with regional trends where this cohort represents 32.8%. Notably, 36.4% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.4% of income and residents rank highly in disposable income at the 80th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.2% houses and 45.8% other dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 42.6% houses and 57.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie stood at 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.3% and rented ones at 30.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,200. The median weekly rent figure in the area was $382, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,400 against Australia's average of $1,863. Rents also exceeded the national figure of $375.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.3% of all households, including 36.7% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area has educational challenges with university qualification rates at 40.9%, significantly below the SA4 region average of 57.1%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 25.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (14.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.9% in secondary, 8.5% in primary, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education. There are eight schools operating within Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, educating approximately 3,058 students. Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement with an ICSEA score of 1101. Educational provision is conventional, split between four primary and four secondary institutions. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs at 17.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 12.5, indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 67 active stops operating in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie area. These include lightrail and bus services. Eleven routes serve these stops, providing a total of 6,151 weekly passenger trips.

Residential accessibility to transport is excellent, with residents located an average of 187 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 878 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 91 weekly trips per individual stop.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie. Both young and old age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 72% of the total population, which consists of 12,312 people.

This compares to 67.2% across Greater Melbourne, with a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.2 and 6.8% of residents respectively. A total of 72.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 17.6% of residents aged 65 and over, which consists of 3,030 people. This is higher than the 16.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.3% of its population born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Essendon West - Aberfeldie, making up 61.0% of the population, compared to 50.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are English (18.6%), Australian (18.0%), and Italian (14.0%).

Notably, Croatian (1.5%) is overrepresented in Essendon West - Aberfeldie compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Maltese (2.3% vs 1.6%) and Greek (4.1% vs 3.2%) are also more prevalent than the regional averages.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55-64 age group is notably over-represented in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, making up 13.4% of the local population, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.9%. Between 2021 and present day, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 4.6% to 5.5% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 11.9% to 10.6%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's age profile by 2041. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to expand by 734 people, an increase of 32%, from 2,304 to 3,039. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 53% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.