Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population was around 17,704 as of February 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 1,662 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,042. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,156 in June 2024 and an additional 374 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,620 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's growth rate of 10.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average of 9.9%, indicating its status as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 93.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, an above median population growth is expected, with the area projected to increase by 2,664 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 11.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has averaged approximately 116 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY2021 and FY2025581 homes were approved, with an additional 30 approved so far in FY2026. The average population growth associated with these approvals is 0.3 people per year over the past five financial years.

This indicates that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for future population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new homes in the area is $621,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY2026, $495,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, predominantly reflecting residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Essendon West - Aberfeldie shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 55th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 54.0% houses).

This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 277 people per dwelling approval, Essendon West - Aberfeldie shows a developing market with an expected population growth of 2,116 residents by 2041 (AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are LUMA Sunshine North, Buckley Street Level Crossing Removal, Maribyrnong River Master Plan Implementation, and Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has a highly educated workforce with professional services strongly represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 5.1%.

As of September 2025, 10,222 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.6% and workforce participation at 71.0%, similar to Greater Melbourne's levels. Home workership is high at 37.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. The area specializes in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, but has lower manufacturing representation at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 7.2%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 5.1%, labour force grew by 5.0%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued May-25, project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Essendon West - Aberfeldie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie SA2 had a median income of $67,198 and an average income of $95,322. This is higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, these figures are estimated to be approximately $72,742 (median) and $103,186 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census reveals that incomes in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie rank between the 77th and 80th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income brackets show that 29.0% of locals (5,134 people) earn $1,500 to $2,999 weekly, aligning with regional trends where this cohort represents 32.8%. Notably, 36.4% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.4% of income, and residents rank in the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, as recorded at the latest Census, consisted of 54.2% houses and 45.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie stood at 37.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (32.3%) or rented (30.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $382, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.3% of all households, including 36.7% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.6.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 40.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 57.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (14.7%). Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.9% in secondary education, 8.5% in primary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 67 active transport stops operating within Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie. These include a mix of light rail and bus services. Eleven individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 5,415 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 187 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 82%, while 7% use the train.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high 37.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 773 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 80 weekly trips per individual stop.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

AreaSearch's assessment shows strong health performance in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low in the general population, closer to national averages in older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover was exceptionally high, with 69% of the total population (12,162 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and Australia's 55.7%.

The most common conditions were asthma (7.2%) and arthritis (6.8%), while 72.8% reported no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area had a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.4% (3,255 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.3% of its population born overseas and 24.9% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Essendon West - Aberfeldie, accounting for 61.0% of residents, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are English (18.6%), Australian (18.0%), and Italian (14.0%), with Italians being more represented than the regional average of 5.2%.

Notably, Croatian (1.5%) and Maltese (2.3%) also have higher representations compared to their respective regional averages of 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively. Similarly, Greek ancestry is overrepresented at 4.1% compared to the regional average of 2.7%.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie is 40, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented at 13.6% locally, while the 35-44 cohort is under-represented at 12.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.6% to 5.8%, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.5%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 15.6% to 14.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's age profile. The 55-64 cohort is projected to expand by 624 people (26%), from 2,414 to 3,039. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 54% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.