Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is around 17,189 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,147 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,042 people. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 17,162 in June 2024 and an additional 374 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,515 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The area's 7.1% growth since the census is within 1.8 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 93.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, above median population growth is expected nationally, with Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie projected to increase by 2,664 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 15.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has averaged approximately 116 new dwelling approvals per year. From FY21 to FY25581 homes were approved, with a further 19 approved in FY26 as of the present time. The average population increase per dwelling built over these five financial years was 0.3 persons.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for future population growth beyond current projections. The average construction cost value of new homes is $621,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $495,000, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Essendon West - Aberfeldie shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks in the 55th percentile nationally among areas assessed. Recent construction comprises 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 54.0% houses).

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With approximately 277 people per dwelling approval, Essendon West - Aberfeldie is showing signs of a developing market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Essendon West - Aberfeldie is projected to grow by 2,631 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include LUMA Sunshine North, Buckley Street Level Crossing Removal, Maribyrnong River Master Plan Implementation, and Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 3.6% as of September 2025, below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.1%. There were 10,222 residents employed by September 2025, with an unemployment rate 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's and workforce participation at 67.7%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Public administration & safety has a high employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, while manufacturing shows lower representation at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 7.2%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data. Over the past year, employment increased by 5.1%, labour force grew by 5.0%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Essendon West - Aberfeldie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie SA2 has exceptionally high incomes nationally. The median income is $64,292 and the average income stands at $101,289. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $72,110 (median) and $113,606 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 80th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 29.0% of locals (4,984 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 category, which aligns with the region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. A significant 36.4% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.4% of income and strong earnings rank residents within the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 54.2% houses and 45.8% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 42.6% houses and 57.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie was 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.3% and rented ones at 30.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,200. The median weekly rent figure was $382, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.3% of all households, including 36.7% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households making up 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 40.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 57.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 25.6% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 14.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.9% in secondary education, 8.5% in primary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 67 active stops operating within Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, including lightrail and bus services. These stops are served by 11 routes, offering a total of 6,151 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to transport is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 187 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency across all routes averages 878 trips per day, equating to approximately 91 weekly trips per individual stop.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, with both young and old age cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 72% of the total population of 12,324 people, compared to 67.2% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.2 and 6.8% of residents respectively.

A total of 72.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 17.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,033 people), which is higher than the 16.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Essendon West-Aberfeldie has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.3% of its residents born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Essendon West-Aberfeldie, accounting for 61.0% of the population, compared to 50.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are English (18.6%), Australian (18.0%), and Italian (14.0%).

Some ethnic groups have notable differences: Croatian is overrepresented at 1.5%, Maltese at 2.3%, and Greek at 4.1%.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie at 13.4%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort is under-represented at 12.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.6% to 5.5% of the population. Meanwhile, the 5-14 age cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's age profile. The 55-64 age cohort is projected to expand by 732 people, from 2,306 to 3,039, a growth of 32%. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 53% of total population growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.