Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is around 17,121 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,079 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,042 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,119 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 373 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,501 persons per square kilometer. Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's 6.7% growth since census positions it within 2.3 percentage points of the SA3 area (9.0%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 96.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, an above median population growth is projected, with the area expected to expand by 2,468 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 14.4% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has averaged approximately 116 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25581 homes were approved, with an additional 47 approved in FY26 so far. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these years was 0.3.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new homes is $621,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, $495,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, predominantly reflecting residential focus. Comparatively, Essendon West - Aberfeldie shows around 75% of the construction activity per person compared to Greater Melbourne and ranks among the 55th percentile nationally for areas assessed. Recent construction comprises 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 54.0% houses).

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 277 people per dwelling approval, Essendon West - Aberfeldie indicates a developing market. Looking ahead, Essendon West - Aberfeldie is projected to grow by approximately 2,466 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include LUMA Sunshine North, Buckley Street Level Crossing Removal, Airport Toyota Expansion, and Maribyrnong River Master Plan Implementation. The following details projects likely most relevant:.

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The employment environment in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Essendon West - Aberfeldie has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 3.6% as of an unspecified date, with estimated employment growth of 4.8% over the past year. As of December 2025, 10,315 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was 72.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 37.4% of residents worked from home, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. The area specializes in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, but has lower manufacturing representation at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 7.2%.

Employment opportunities may be limited locally as Census data shows fewer working residents than total population. Between June 2024 and May 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, labour force grew by 4.6%, reducing unemployment by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary by industry sector. Applying these projections to Essendon West - Aberfeldie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie SA2 has extremely high incomes nationally. The median assessed income is $67,198 and the average income stands at $95,322. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $73,662 (median) and $104,492 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, between the 77th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 29.0% of locals (4,965 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. A significant 36.4% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.4% of income and strong earnings rank residents within the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.2% houses and 45.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie stood at 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.3% and rented ones at 30.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in the area was $382, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.3% of all households, including 36.7% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 40.9%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 57.1%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 25.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (14.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in secondary education, 8.5% in primary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 67 active transport stops operating within Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie. These comprise a mix of light rail and bus services. Eleven individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 5,415 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 187 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most residents commute outward; car remains dominant at 82%, while train usage stands at 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling.

High work-from-home rate of 37.4% noted in 2021 Census, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 773 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 80 weekly trips per individual stop.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows strong health performance in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts had low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover was found to be exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population, which is 11,762 people.

This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and 55.7% nationally. The most common medical conditions were asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.2 and 6.8% of residents respectively. 72.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 17.9% of residents aged 65 and over, which is 3,064 people, higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.3% of its population born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, accounting for 61.0% of residents, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestral groups are English (18.6%), Australian (18.0%), and Italian (14.0%), the latter being significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%.

Some ethnic groups have notably higher representations: Croatian at 1.5% versus 0.7%, Maltese at 2.3% versus 1.1%, and Greek at 4.1% versus 2.7%.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. Comparing it with the Greater Melbourne average, the 55-64 age group is notably over-represented at 13.5%, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 12.1% to 13.8% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 11.9% to 10.3%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 15.6% to 14.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's age profile will significantly change. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to expand by 668 people (29%), from 2,316 to 2,985. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 50% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.