Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is around 17,704 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,662 people (10.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,042 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,156 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 374 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,620 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's 10.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 93.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above-median population growth relative to national areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,664 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 11.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has averaged around 116 new dwelling approvals per year, with 581 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 30 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.3 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average value of $621,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $495,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks in the 55th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 54.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 277 people per dwelling approval, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows a developing market.

Looking ahead, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie is expected to grow by 2,116 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 6 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include LUMA Sunshine North, Buckley Street Level Crossing Removal, Maribyrnong River Master Plan Implementation, and Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie features a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.6%, and 4.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 10,315 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 37.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and construction. The area has particular employment specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 5.4% versus the regional average of 7.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 4.8% alongside labour force increasing by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie SA2 is extremely high nationally, with the median assessed at $67,198 while the average income stands at $95,322. This contrasts to Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $72,742 (median) and $103,186 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, between the 77th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the predominant cohort spans 29.0% of locals (5,134 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. A significant 36.4% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. Housing accounts for 13.4% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 80th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 54.2% houses and 45.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (32.3%) or rented (30.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,400, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $382, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 69.3% of all households, comprising 36.7% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (40.9%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 57.1%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 25.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (14.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in secondary education, 8.5% in primary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 67 active transport stops operating within Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, comprising a mix of light rail and buses. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, collectively providing 5,415 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 187 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 7% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling. A high 37.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 773 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 80 weekly trips per individual stop.

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and near the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (12,162 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.2% and 6.8% of residents, respectively, while 72.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 18.4% of residents aged 65 and over (3,255 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 24.3% of its population born overseas and 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie is Christianity, which makes up 61.0% of people in the area. This compares to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie are English, comprising 18.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 18.0% of the population, and Italian, comprising 14.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Croatian is notably overrepresented at 1.5% of Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie (vs 0.7% regionally), Maltese at 2.3% (vs 1.1%) and Greek at 4.1% (vs 2.7%).

Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie is somewhat higher than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (13.6% locally), while 35 - 44 year-olds are under-represented (12.0%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.6% to 5.8% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.5% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 15.6% to 14.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Essendon (West) - Aberfeldie's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 624 people (26%) from 2,414 to 3,039. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 54% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.