Pascoe Vale South

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pascoe Vale South's population was approximately 10,934 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 544 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,390. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 10,907 in June 2025 and an additional 54 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,656 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale South in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward, a significant population increase is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 3,975 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 36.1% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pascoe Vale South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Pascoe Vale South has seen approximately 47 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 236 homes. As of FY-26, 19 approvals have been recorded. Despite a population decline during this period, development activity has remained adequate relative to the falling population, which could be beneficial for buyers. The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $489,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $2.4 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale South has markedly lower building activity, recording 60.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Recent construction comprises 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 80.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 238 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale South is characterised as a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate that Pascoe Vale South will gain approximately 3,948 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 20 projects that are likely to impact the area significantly due to their influence on local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Key projects among these include Napier Park Masterplan and Community Hub, York Street Park and Bell Street Land Sale, Pascoe Vale South, Tram Route 55 Power Substation, and 320 Reynard Street Development. The following list details those projects that are likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Pascoe Vale South has been broadly consistent with national averages

Pascoe Vale South has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate is 4.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.4% in the past year. As of December 2025, 6,304 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is 72.6%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Census data shows that 41.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, with a notable concentration in education & training at 1.3 times the regional average. Manufacturing employment is under-represented, at 5.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 7.2%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.4%, labour force by 4.6%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth varies significantly by industry sector. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Pascoe Vale South SA2 had a high national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. Its median taxpayer income was $65,946 and average income stood at $79,526, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $72,290 (median) and $87,176 (average), based on a 9.62% growth in Wage Price Index since financial year 2023. Census data showed that Pascoe Vale South's household, family, and personal incomes ranked highly nationally, between the 74th and 80th percentiles. Income analysis revealed that 30.4% of locals (3,323 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the broader regional trend of 32.8%. Economic strength was evident with 36.2% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retained 87.0% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Pascoe Vale South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.4% houses and 19.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale South was at 37.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.9% and rented ones at 24.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $421, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.2% of all households, including 40.6% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 40.0%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 57.1%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 25.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.4% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 10.4% and certificates 14.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pascoe Vale South has 41 active public transport stops, offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are served by 11 different routes, collectively facilitating 6,615 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 82%, followed by train at 6% and cycling at 2%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 41.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 945 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 161 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Pascoe Vale South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pascoe Vale South shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low in the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 58% (~6,385 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is very high. Mental health issues affect 7.7% and asthma affects 7.5% of residents, while 71.9% report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.3% (1,671 people) of residents aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pascoe Vale South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South had a higher level of cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 23.4% of its population born overseas and 29.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale South, accounting for 57.0% of the population, which is higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 43.0%. The top three ancestry groups were English (17.4%), Australian (17.0%), and Italian (17.0%), all notably higher than the regional averages of 29.8%, 25.6%, and 5.2% respectively.

Notably, Greek (8.4%) and Maltese (1.7%) ancestry were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.7% and 1.1%. Lebanese ancestry was also higher at 1.7% compared to the regional average of 0.8%.

Pascoe Vale South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Pascoe Vale South is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and close to the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale South has a notably higher proportion of people aged 55-64 (13.1% locally) but fewer people aged 25-34 (12.8%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 55-64 age group grew from 12.0% to 13.1%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 12.1% to 13.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Pascoe Vale South, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 50%, reaching 2,361 people from 1,576.