Pascoe Vale South

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pascoe Vale South's population was approximately 10,898 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 508 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,390. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates: 10,869 in June 2024 and an additional 52 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 3,644 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 79.2% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate a significant increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with Pascoe Vale South expected to grow by 3,999 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 36.4% over 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pascoe Vale South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Pascoe Vale South has seen approximately 47 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 236 homes. As of FY2025-26, 16 approvals have been recorded. Despite a decline in population during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, which could benefit buyers. The average expected construction cost value for new properties is $489,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year, $2.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale South has markedly lower building activity, at 60.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Recent construction comprises 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 80.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 238 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale South shows characteristics of a low density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the suburb is forecasted to gain approximately 3,970 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twenty projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones include York Street Park and Mixed-Use Development, Pascoe Vale South, Napier Park Masterplan and Community Hub, Tram Route 55 Power Substation, and 320 Reynard Street Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pascoe Vale South has been broadly consistent with national averages

Pascoe Vale South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 4.5%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.8%.

As of September 2025, 6,257 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.3% and workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Notably, 41.1% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, with a particularly high concentration in education & training at 1.3 times the regional average. Manufacturing employment is under-represented at 5.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 7.2%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.8% and labour force increased by 4.8%, keeping the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Pascoe Vale South's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in Pascoe Vale South SA2 was $65,946 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $79,526 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, based on an 8.25% growth since financial year 2023, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $71,387 and the average income around $86,087. According to census data, incomes in Pascoe Vale South rank highly nationally, between the 74th and 80th percentiles for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis shows that 30.4% of locals (3,312 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, consistent with broader regional trends at 32.8%. Economic strength is evident with 36.2% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 87.0% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Pascoe Vale South, as per the latest Census, 80.4% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 19.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This compares to Melbourne's metropolitan area where 67.9% of dwellings are houses and 32.1% are other types. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale South stood at 37.7%, with mortgaged properties at 37.9% and rented dwellings at 24.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was $421, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $421 compared to the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 40.6% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households making up 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 40.0%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 57.1%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 25.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.4% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas making up 10.4% and certificates 14.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 41 active transport stops in Pascoe Vale South, offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are served by 11 individual routes, collectively facilitating 6,615 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest stop. The area, predominantly residential, sees most commuters traveling outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 82%, followed by train at 6% and cycling at 2%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 41.1% of residents work from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 945 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 161 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pascoe Vale South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pascoe Vale South shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 58% (~6,364 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is very high. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 7.7% and 7.5% of residents respectively. About 71.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.9% (1,728 people) of residents aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pascoe Vale South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 23.4% of residents born overseas and 29.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale South, making up 57.0% of its population compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were English (17.4%), Australian (17.0%), and Italian (17.0%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%.

Notably, Greek (8.4%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 2.7%, Maltese (1.7%) was also higher than the regional average of 1.1%, and Lebanese (1.7%) exceeded the regional average of 0.8%.

Pascoe Vale South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Pascoe Vale South is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented at 13.2% locally compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.1% to 13.5%, and the 55-64 cohort has increased from 12.0% to 13.2%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 13.0% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Pascoe Vale South, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 50%, reaching 2,332 people from 1,557.