Pascoe Vale South

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Pascoe Vale South's population is around 10,898 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 508 people (4.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,390 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,869 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 52 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,644 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 79.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 3,999 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 36.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pascoe Vale South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Pascoe Vale South has seen around 47 new homes approved annually, totalling 236 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 16 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, which is a positive for buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $489,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $2.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating a limited commercial development focus.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale South records markedly lower building activity (60.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Recent construction comprises 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% attached dwellings. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 80.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 238 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale South shows characteristics of a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Pascoe Vale South will gain 3,970 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 20 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include York Street Park and Mixed-Use Development, Pascoe Vale South, Napier Park Masterplan and Community Hub, Tram Route 55 Power Substation, and 320 Reynard Street Development, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Pascoe Vale South has been broadly consistent with national averages

Pascoe Vale South possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of 4.6%, and 4.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,304 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.1% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 41.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in education & training, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, manufacturing is under-represented, with only 5.1% of Pascoe Vale South's workforce compared to 7.2% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.4% and the labour force increased by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Pascoe Vale South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Pascoe Vale South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Pascoe Vale South SA2's income level is extremely high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Pascoe Vale South SA2's median income among taxpayers is $65,946 and the average income stands at $79,526, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $71,387 (median) and $86,087 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Pascoe Vale South, between the 74th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the predominant cohort spans 30.4% of locals (3,312 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across the region showing 32.8% in the same category. Economic strength emerges through 36.2% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 87.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Pascoe Vale South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 80.4% houses and 19.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Pascoe Vale South was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (37.9%) or rented (24.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $421, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.2% of all households, comprising 40.6% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households comprising 4.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (40.0%) substantially below the SA4 region average of 57.1%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.4% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (14.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 41 active transport stops operating within Pascoe Vale South, comprising a mix of light rail and buses. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, collectively providing 6,615 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 6% by train and 2% cycling. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A high 41.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 945 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 161 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pascoe Vale South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pascoe Vale South demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high, at approximately 58% of the total population (~6,364 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.7% and 7.5% of residents, respectively, while 71.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,728 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pascoe Vale South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 23.4% of its population born overseas and 29.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Pascoe Vale South is Christianity, which makes up 57.0% of the population, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Pascoe Vale South are English, comprising 17.4% of the population, Australian, comprising 17.0% of the population, and Italian, comprising 17.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Greek is overrepresented at 8.4% in Pascoe Vale South (vs 2.7% regionally), Maltese at 1.7% (vs 1.1%), and Lebanese at 1.7% (vs 0.8%).

Pascoe Vale South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The 39-year median age in Pascoe Vale South is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly very close to the 38-year national average. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (13.2% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (12.3%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.1% to 13.5% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 12.0% to 13.2%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Pascoe Vale South. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 50% (774 people), reaching 2,332 from 1,557.