Pascoe Vale South
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pascoe Vale South's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 10,829 people. This represents an increase of 439 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,390. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 10,869 residents as of June 2024 and an additional 47 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 3,621 persons per square kilometer, placing the area in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 79.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch projections for each SA2 area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods down to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, significant population growth is forecast for the area, with an expected increase of 3,999 persons by 2041 based on current trends. This would represent a total increase of 37.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pascoe Vale South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Pascoe Vale South has seen approximately 47 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 236 approvals across the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with 8 approvals so far in FY26. Despite population decline over this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population change, benefiting buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $599,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating a focus on quality construction.

Additionally, $2.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale South shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 60.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. New building activity consists of 45.0% standalone homes and 55.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the area's current housing composition of 80.0% houses. This trend reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles, offering more diverse and affordable housing options. With around 238 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale South is characterised as a low density area. Looking ahead to 2041, the area is expected to grow by approximately 4,039 residents.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Pascoe Vale South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects potentially affecting the region. Notable ones are Bell Street Community Precinct - York Street Park and Mixed Development, Love Sydney Road Beautification and Enhancement Program, York Street Park - A Park Close to Home (Pascoe Vale South), and Northumberland Road Social Housing Development. The following list details those most likely relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Pascoe Vale South demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Pascoe Vale South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 6.6% over the past year.

In June 2025, 6,452 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 68.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Education & training showed particular strength with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Manufacturing had limited presence at 5.1% compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 6.6%, while labour force grew by 7.1%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data for Victoria as of Sep-25 showed employment growth of 1.08% year-on-year with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May 2025, project an expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Pascoe Vale South has high incomes. The median income is $62,879 and the average is $76,794. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's median income is $54,892 and average is $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 are approximately $69,236 (median) and $84,558 (average). Census data ranks Pascoe Vale South's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 74th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 30.4% of residents earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, similar to surrounding regions at 32.8%. Notably, 36.2% of Pascoe Vale South residents earn above $3,000 per week. After housing costs, residents retain 87.0% of income, indicating strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking is in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Pascoe Vale South, as per the latest Census data, 80.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.6% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Melbourne metropolitan area's figures of 46.2% houses and 53.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale South stood at 37.7%, with mortgaged properties making up 37.9% and rented dwellings comprising 24.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,149. Median weekly rent in Pascoe Vale South was $421, compared to Melbourne metro's $418. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 40.6% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 40.0%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 57.1%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 25.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.4% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 10.4% and certificates 14.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education. The area has two schools serving a total of 1,212 students: Pascoe Vale South Primary School and Antonine College. Pascoe Vale South Primary School has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1038) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 41 active public transport stops in Pascoe Vale South. These comprise a mix of lightrail and bus services, operated by 11 individual routes. Together, they facilitate 6,233 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 890 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 152 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pascoe Vale South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pascoe Vale South shows better-than-average health outcomes, with lower prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to national averages.

However, among older and at-risk groups, the prevalence is higher. Approximately 58% (6,259 people) have private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 7.7% of residents, followed by asthma at 7.5%. Notably, 71.9% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 68.5%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.3% (1,657 people) than Greater Melbourne's 12.1%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to these challenges.

Pascoe Vale South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 23.4% of its population born overseas and 29.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale South, comprising 57.0% of the population, compared to 35.3% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestral groups were English (17.4%), Australian (17.0%), and Italian (17.0%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 10.2%.

Notably, Greek representation was higher at 8.4%, compared to 5.1% regionally, Maltese at 1.7% versus 0.9%, and Lebanese at 1.7% against a regional average of 1.9%.

Pascoe Vale South's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Pascoe Vale South is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Pascoe Vale South at 12.9%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.6%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.1% to 13.2%, while the 5-14 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Pascoe Vale South. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 49% (767 people), reaching a total of 2,332 from the current figure of 1,564.