Pascoe Vale South
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pascoe Vale South's population was 10,834 as of November 2025. This showed an increase of 444 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,390. The growth was inferred from ABS data: an estimated resident population of 10,869 in June 2024 and 49 new addresses validated post-Census. This resulted in a density ratio of 3,623 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. Overseas migration contributed approximately 79.2% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Pascoe Vale South is projected to have a population of 14,833, reflecting a 37.2% increase over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pascoe Vale South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Pascoe Vale South has seen approximately 47 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 236 homes. As of FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. Despite a fall in population during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas. The average construction cost value for new properties is $489,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalling $2.4 million have been recorded, suggesting limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale South has significantly lower building activity, approximately 60.0% below the regional average per person. Recent construction comprises 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 80.0% houses. This increased focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 238 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale South is considered a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Pascoe Vale South will gain approximately 4,034 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include York Street Park and Mixed-Use Development, Pascoe Vale South, Love Sydney Road Beautification and Enhancement Program, York Street Park - A Park Close to Home (Pascoe Vale South), and Northumberland Road Social Housing Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Pascoe Vale South has been broadly consistent with national averages

Pascoe Vale South has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% in June 2025, below Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment grew by 6.6% over the past year. As of June 2025, 6,452 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's. Workforce participation was 68.6%, close to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services.

Education & training has notably high levels, at 1.3 times the regional average. Manufacturing, however, is under-represented at 5.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 7.2%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by Census data comparisons. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 6.6%, labour force by 7.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Pascoe Vale South's median income among taxpayers was $62,879 during financial year 2022. The average income stood at $76,794 in the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $70,525 and the average income will be around $86,132, based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16%. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Pascoe Vale South rank between the 74th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 30.4% of locals (3,293 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, which is consistent with broader regional trends showing 32.8% in the same category. Economic strength is evident with 36.2% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 87.0% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As evaluated in the latest Census, dwelling structures in Pascoe Vale South comprised 80.4% houses and 19.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 46.2% houses and 53.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale South stood at 37.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.9% and rented ones at 24.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,149. Median weekly rent in Pascoe Vale South was $421, compared to Melbourne metro's $418. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 40.6% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 40.0%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 57.1%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 25.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.4% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.4% and certificates at 14.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education. The area has two schools serving a total of 1,212 students: Pascoe Vale South Primary School and Antonine College. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA score: 1038) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis reveals 41 active stops operating within Pascoe Vale South. These include a mix of light rail and bus services. Eleven routes service these stops collectively providing 6,233 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 890 trips per day across all routes equating to approximately 152 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pascoe Vale South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pascoe Vale South shows better-than-average health outcomes, with lower prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to national averages.

However, older and at-risk cohorts have higher rates of these conditions. Approximately 58% (6,262 people) of the population has private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 7.7% of residents and asthma impacting 7.5%. A total of 71.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 68.5% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.3% (1,658 people), compared to 12.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Pascoe Vale South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 23.4% of its population born overseas and 29.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale South, accounting for 57.0% of the population, compared to 35.3% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were English (17.4%), Australian (17.0%), and Italian (17.0%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 10.2%.

Notably, Greek ethnicity was overrepresented at 8.4%, compared to 5.1% regionally, Maltese at 1.7% vs 0.9%, and Lebanese at 1.7% vs 1.9%.

Pascoe Vale South's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Pascoe Vale South is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and close to the national average of 38. The 55-64 age group comprises 12.9% of the population in Pascoe Vale South, compared to 10.9% in Greater Melbourne, indicating over-representation. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.6%, compared to 17.8% in Greater Melbourne. According to the 2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.1% to 13.2%, while the 5-14 age group has declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest that the 45-54 age group will grow by 49%, increasing from 1,565 to 2,332 people.