Ascot Vale

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Ascot Vale's population was estimated at around 16,341 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,144 people since the Census in 2021, which reported a population of 15,197. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 16,239 following examination of the ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 266 validated new addresses since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of 4,244 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth of 7.5% since the census is within 1.4 percentage points of the national average (8.9%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for the suburb, with an expected increase of 2,515 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 14.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Ascot Vale shows approximately 79 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 398 homes. By June 2026 (FY-26), there have been 5 approvals recorded. The average increase in residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is around 0.9, indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of new homes is $909,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In this financial year, $7.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Ascot Vale's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records about 57% of building activity per person and ranks among the 28th percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established dwellings. New development consists of 29.0% detached dwellings and 71.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the current housing mix (46.0% houses) reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Ascot Vale has approximately 593 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market.

Population forecasts suggest Ascot Vale will gain 2,408 residents by 2041, with current construction rates appearing balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Ascot Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 22 projects likely impacting the region. Key initiatives include Flemington Green, Highpoint Urban Village, Flemington Estate Renewal (Public Housing Revitalisation Program), and Holland Park Precinct Redevelopment. The following details projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Ascot Vale has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 8.6% as of an unspecified date, with an estimated employment growth of 5.8% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 9,560 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Ascot Vale is fairly standard at 68.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. The area has a particular specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

However, construction is under-represented, with only 6.8% of Ascot Vale's workforce compared to 9.7% in Greater Melbourne. Employment levels increased by 5.8% and labour force increased by 7.1% during the year to June 2025, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in Sep-22, project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Ascot Vale is extremely high nationally. The median assessed income is $60,317 while the average income stands at $82,874. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $67,652 (median) and $92,951 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Ascot Vale, between the 77th and 85th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 26.3% of the community (4,297 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the region showing 32.8% in the same category. The substantial proportion of high earners, at 37.5% above $3,000/week, indicates strong economic capacity throughout Ascot Vale. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 78th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 42.6% houses and 57.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale was at 27.7%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 38.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,458, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,200. Median weekly rent in Ascot Vale was recorded at $370, matching Melbourne metro's figure but lower than the national average of $375. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.8% of all households, including couples with children (30.2%), couples without children (23.9%), and single parent families (9.1%). Non-family households account for the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 6.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is notably high, with 49.4% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications. This compares favourably to national (30.4%) and Victorian state (33.4%) averages. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.5%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%.

Educational participation is also high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education. Ascot Vale has a robust network of six schools educating approximately 1,050 students. The area shows above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1086. The educational mix includes three primary schools, two secondary schools, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (6.5) are below the regional average (12.4), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 63 active transport stops in Ascot Vale. These include train, light rail, and bus stops serviced by 12 routes. The total weekly passenger trips are 6,725.

Residents' average proximity to the nearest stop is 157 meters. Daily service frequency averages 960 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Both young and old age cohorts have a low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (9724 people), compared to 67.2% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.9 and 7.4% of residents respectively. 72.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. Ascot Vale has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2304 people), which is lower than the 16.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ascot Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale, surveyed in 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas with 29.1% of its population born overseas and 26.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ascot Vale at 44.7%. Islam was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 5.4% versus 4.4%.

Top ancestry groups were English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Italian (7.7%) and Vietnamese (2.6%) were notably more represented in Ascot Vale than regionally at 10.2% and 1.8%, respectively, while Maltese showed a slight overrepresentation at 1.4%.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely resembling Australia's average of 38 years. The 45-54 age group constitutes 13.2% of Ascot Vale's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort makes up 10.2%, lower than the Greater Melbourne figure. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 11.6%. During this period, the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is projected to grow by 36%, adding 644 people and reaching a total of 2,458 from its current figure of 1,813. Meanwhile, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.