Ascot Vale

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Ascot Vale is around 16,383, reflecting a growth of 1,186 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 7.8% change from the previous population count of 15,197. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validation of additional addresses, is 16,234. This results in a population density ratio of 4,255 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the suburb. Adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and utilising VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods, AreaSearch projects an above median population growth for the area.

By 2041, Ascot Vale is expected to increase by 2,505 persons, reflecting a total increase of 14.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Ascot Vale recorded approximately 79 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 399 homes. By FY26, 16 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 0.9 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating new supply met or exceeded demand. The average construction value of these dwellings was $897,000, suggesting developers targeted the premium market segment.

This year, $7.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Ascot Vale's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records about 57% of building activity per person and ranks among the 28th percentile nationally, indicating relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. New building activity consists of approximately 28.0% standalone homes and 72.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living and affordability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the current housing mix (46.0% houses) addresses reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. Ascot Vale has an established market with approximately 582 people per dwelling approval.

Future projections estimate a growth of 2,356 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Ascot Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of a region can be significantly impacted by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 21 such projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable among these are Flemington Green, Holland Court, Flemington housing, Flemington Estate Renewal (Public Housing Revitalisation Program), and Highpoint Urban Village. The following list outlines those projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Ascot Vale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 8.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.5%. As of December 2025, 9,385 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Ascot Vale is 74.7%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 45.5% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Ascot Vale has a notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average, while construction shows lower representation at 6.8% compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.5%, labour force increased by 4.6%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged at 8.7%. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points to 5.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Ascot Vale has a high national income level according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Ascot Vale is $60,331 and the average income stands at $82,886. These figures compare to those for Greater Melbourne of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $65,308 (median) and $89,724 (average) as of September 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Ascot Vale rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 85th percentiles. Distribution data shows that the income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 per week dominates with 26.3% of residents (4,308 people). This mirrors regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Ascot Vale demonstrates considerable affluence with 37.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwellings, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale stood at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 38.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,458, higher than Melbourne's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ascot Vale was $370, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,458 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 30.2% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 6.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is notable, with 49.4% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications. This compares to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% statewide (Victoria). Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 13.5% and graduate diplomas at 5.2%. Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 64 active stops operating within Ascot Vale, serving a mix of light rail and bus services. These are covered by 9 individual routes, collectively offering 8,154 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 157 meters to the nearest stop. Ascot Vale is primarily residential, with most residents commuting outward. The car remains the dominant mode at 70%, while train usage stands at 13%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average.

Notably, 45.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census), which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,164 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 127 weekly trips per stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (9751 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions were mental health issues, impacting 8.9% of residents, and asthma, affecting 7.4%. A total of 72.7% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% figure for Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2457 people). Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ascot Vale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 29.1% of its population born overseas and 26.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The dominant religion in Ascot Vale is Christianity, comprising 44.7% of the population. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 5.4% of Ascot Vale's population versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Italian (7.7%) and Vietnamese (2.6%) are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 5.2% and 1.9%, respectively, while Maltese is slightly overrepresented at 1.4%.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely aligning with Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 age group comprises 13.2% of Ascot Vale's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 5-14 cohort makes up 10.1%. Between 2021 and the present, the 65 to 74 age group has risen from 7.4% to 8.8%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 10.5% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55 to 64 group is projected to grow by 32%, adding 595 people and reaching a total of 2,447 from its current figure of 1,851. The 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups are both expected to decrease in numbers.