Ascot Vale

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the Ascot Vale statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 16,362 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,165 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,197. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 16,234 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 266 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,249 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale (SA2) within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 7.7% growth since the census is within 2.0 percentage points of the national average of 9.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Ascot Vale (SA2).

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for the Ascot Vale (SA2), with an expected increase of 2,515 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 14.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Ascot Vale shows approximately 79 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 399 homes. By May 26th, 16 approvals have been recorded this year. On average, 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were added between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new homes is $897,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment.

Commercial approvals this financial year amount to $7.1 million, reflecting Ascot Vale's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records about 57% of building activity per person and ranks in the 28th percentile nationally for assessed areas, implying limited buyer options but strong demand for established dwellings. New development consists of 28.0% detached dwellings and 72.0% medium to high-density housing, promoting affordability and suitability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the current 46.0% houses reflects reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands. Ascot Vale has approximately 582 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market.

Population forecasts estimate a gain of 2,387 residents by 2041, with present construction rates balancing future demand and fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Ascot Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Flemington Green, Holland Court, Flemington housing, Flemington Estate Renewal (Public Housing Revitalisation Program), and Highpoint Urban Village. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Ascot Vale has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 8.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.9%.

As of September 2025, 9,315 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate was higher than Greater Melbourne's at 3.8%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 68.7%. Leading industries included health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. The area had a particular specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, construction was under-represented, with only 6.8% of Ascot Vale's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as suggested by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9%, while labour force also grew by 4.9%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 8.5%. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising to 5.0%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Ascot Vale at $60,331 and average income at $82,886. This compares to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $65,308 (median) and $89,724 (average). From the Census conducted in August 2021, Ascot Vale's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 77th and 85th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 26.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per week, consistent with regional trends showing 32.8% in this category. Notably, 37.5% of Ascot Vale residents earn above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity. Despite high housing costs consuming 15.2% of income, disposable income ranks at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 42.6% houses and 57.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale stood at 27.7%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (38.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,458, above Melbourne metro's average of $2,200. Median weekly rent in Ascot Vale was $370, matching Melbourne metro's figure. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments are higher at $2,458 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 against the national figure of $375.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8 percent of all households, including 30.2 percent couples with children, 23.9 percent couples without children, and 9.1 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2 percent, with lone person households at 28.8 percent and group households comprising 6.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is significantly higher than national and state averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 49.4% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.5%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Ascot Vale area has 62 active public transport stops. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 9 different routes operating in total, serving 8,154 weekly passenger trips combined.

Residents have excellent access to these stops, with an average distance of 157 meters to the nearest one. The service frequency is high, with an average of 1,164 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 131 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Both young and old age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (9738 people), compared to 66.1% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues, impacting 8.9% of residents, and asthma, affecting 7.4%. A total of 72.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2307 people), which is lower than the 16.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ascot Vale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale, surveyed in the year 2016, exhibited greater cultural diversity than most local areas with 29.1% of its population born overseas and 26.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 44.7% of Ascot Vale's population as of 2016. Islam showed an overrepresentation in Ascot Vale with 5.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.4%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Notably, Italian (7.7%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 10.2%. Vietnamese (2.6%) and Maltese (1.4%) also showed higher percentages than their respective regional averages of 1.8% and 1.6%.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38 years. The age group of 45-54 is notably strong at 13.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 10.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 11.6% of the population, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is projected to grow by 35%, adding 641 people and reaching a total of 2,458 from its current figure of 1,816. Conversely, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.