Ascot Vale

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Ascot Vale is around 16,465. This figure reflects an increase of 1,268 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,197. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 277 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,276 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 8.3% growth since census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (9.0%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth, with the suburb expected to grow by 2,342 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 14.2% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Ascot Vale shows approximately 79 new homes approved annually since FY-20. This totals an estimated 399 homes over the past five financial years, with 17 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed have been added between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of these dwellings is $897,000, targeting the premium market segment.

In this financial year, Ascot Vale has seen $7.1 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting its primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records around 57% of building activity per person and ranks at the 28th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established dwellings. New development consists of 28.0% detached dwellings and 72.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the current housing mix (46.0% houses) reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands. Ascot Vale has approximately 582 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market with population forecasts predicting a gain of 2,342 residents by 2041.

Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though heightened competition among buyers is expected as the population grows.

Ascot Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Holland Court, Flemington housing, Flemington Estate Renewal (Public Housing Revitalisation Program), Highpoint Urban Village, and The Archer - Flemington Racecourse Residential Development. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Ascot Vale has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 8.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.5% over the past year (AreaSearch aggregation). As of December 2025, there are 9,380 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.9% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is at 73.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 45.5% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. Ascot Vale specializes in professional & technical jobs, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, but construction is under-represented at 6.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.5% and labour force by 4.6%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 8.6%. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising to 5.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Ascot Vale suburb is $60,331 and average income is $82,886. This compares to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 9.62% from July 2023 to March 2026, estimated current incomes are approximately $66,135 (median) and $90,860 (average). Ascot Vale's household income ranks at the 77th-85th percentile nationally according to the 2021 Census. Income analysis reveals that 26.3% of individuals earn between $1,500-$2,999 weekly, consistent with broader regional trends. Notably, 37.5% of residents earn above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity in the area. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but disposable income ranks at the 78th percentile nationally. Ascot Vale's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ascot Vale's latest Census data shows 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Melbourne metro has 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale is 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 38.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $2,458, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ascot Vale is $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments are higher at $2,458 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents are lower at $370 against the national figure of $375.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.8% of all households, including 30.2% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 6.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 49.4% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 13.5% and graduate diplomas at 5.2%. Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ascot Vale has 64 operational public transport stops offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These are served by 9 different routes facilitating 8,154 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents located an average of 157 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Ascot Vale residents commute outward using cars (70%), while 13% use trains. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 45.5% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Daily service frequency across all routes averages 1,164 trips, equating to approximately 127 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were both low across young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (9799 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions were mental health issues, impacting 8.9% of residents, and asthma, affecting 7.4%. A significant portion, 72.7%, declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% figure for Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2436 people). Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ascot Vale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than most local areas, with 29.1% of its population born overseas and 26.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ascot Vale, making up 44.7% of people. However, Islam is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 5.4% versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Some ethnic groups have notable representation: Italian at 7.7%, Vietnamese at 2.6%, and Maltese at 1.4%.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure of 37, and it remains comparable to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 45-54 age group comprises 13.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 5-14 cohort stands at 10.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has risen from 7.4% to 8.7%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.5% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.0%. By 2041, projections indicate significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is expected to grow by 34%, adding 598 people to reach 2,377 from 1,778. Meanwhile, both 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease in number.