Ascot Vale

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Ascot Vale is around 16,383, reflecting an increase of 1,186 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 7.8% increase from the previous population figure of 15,197. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 16,234 in Jun 2024, following an examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and validation of additional 275 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 4,255 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 7.8% since census is within 2.1 percentage points of the national average (9.9%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in Ascot Vale.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate an above median population growth, with Ascot Vale expected to increase by 2,513 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 14.4% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Ascot Vale recorded around 79 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 399 homes. In FY-26 so far, 16 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 0.9 people moved to the area for each dwelling built, suggesting new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new homes was $897,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment.

This financial year (FY-26) has seen $7.1 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records about 57% of building activity per person and ranks among the 28th percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings. New building activity shows 28.0% standalone homes and 72.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Ascot Vale has approximately 582 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Ascot Vale to grow by 2,364 residents through to 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Ascot Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Flemington Green, Holland Court, Flemington housing, Flemington Estate Renewal (Public Housing Revitalisation Program), and Highpoint Urban Village. Relevant projects are listed below for further detail.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Ascot Vale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 8.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.9%. As of September 2025, 9,315 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation is at 74.4%, comparable to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Notably, 45.5% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. The area has a particularly high concentration in professional & technical jobs, at 1.4 times the regional average, but lower representation in construction (6.8% vs regional average of 9.7%).

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9%, labour force grew by 4.9%, with unemployment remaining stable. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a slight increase in unemployment (0.3 percentage points). Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industries. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Ascot Vale suburb has a high national income level according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers is $60,331 and the average income stands at $82,886. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $65,308 (median) and $89,724 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, Ascot Vale's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 85th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 26.3% of residents (4,308 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Ascot Vale demonstrates affluence with 37.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale stood at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 38.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,458, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Weekly rent median was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863, while rents were lower at $375.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.8% of all households, including 30.2% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 6.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is notable with 49.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 13.5% and graduate diplomas at 5.2%. Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 64 active public transport stops in Ascot Vale. These include a mix of light rail and bus services, operated by 9 individual routes. The total weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes is 8,154. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 157 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 70%, while train usage stands at 13%.

Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 45.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 1,164 trips per day, equating to approximately 127 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (9,751 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.9 and 7.4% of residents respectively. A total of 72.7% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,424 people). Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ascot Vale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale, surveyed in 2016, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 29.1% of its population born overseas and 26.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 44.7%. Islam's representation stood at 5.4%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

Top ancestry groups were English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Notably, Italian (7.7%) Vietnamese (2.6%) and Maltese (1.4%) populations were relatively overrepresented compared to regional averages of 5.2%, 1.9% and 1.1% respectively.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely aligning with Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 age group makes up 13.2% of Ascot Vale's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort comprises 10.1%, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 7.4% to 8.7% of Ascot Vale's population, while the 15 to 24 cohort rose from 10.5% to 11.7%. During this period, the 5-14 cohort decreased from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55 to 64 group is projected to grow by 33%, adding 606 people to reach a total of 2,458 from its current figure of 1,851. Meanwhile, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.