Aberfeldie

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aberfeldie reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The suburb of Aberfeldie had an estimated population of 4,083 as of May 2026, reflecting a rise from the 2021 Census figure of 3,925 people. This increase of 158 individuals represents a growth rate of approximately 4%. AreaSearch validated this estimate using ABS's ERP data release from June 2025 and an additional 84 new addresses since the Census date. The population density stands at around 2,584 persons per square kilometer, placing Aberfeldie in the upper quartile compared to other locations assessed by AreaSearch nationwide. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 93% of recent population gains in the suburb.

AreaSearch's projections for Aberfeldie are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation methods for areas not covered by the former data. According to these projections, Aberfeldie is expected to experience above median population growth, increasing by 551 persons by 2041, which translates to a 13.5% increase over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Aberfeldie recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Aberfeldie has seen approximately 37 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 188 homes between FY-21 and FY-25. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. The average new resident arrival per new home is around 0.4 persons per year during this period.

This indicates that supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $1,178,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $165,000, indicating minimal commercial development activity. New development consists of 30% standalone homes and 70% medium to high-density housing.

This shift from the current housing mix (67% houses) reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Aberfeldie has around 194 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Aberfeldie is expected to grow by approximately 551 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Aberfeldie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified three projects that could impact the local area's performance. Key projects include LUMA Sunshine North, Maribyrnong River Master Plan Implementation, Buckley Street Level Crossing Removal, and 191 Rosamond Road Mixed-Use Development. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Aberfeldie well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Aberfeldie has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.2% as of December 2025. This rate is lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.3%. As of December 2025, 2,526 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 1.6% below Greater Melbourne's. Workforce participation was 74.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

A high proportion of residents, 39.3%, worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services. Manufacturing is under-represented with only 5.0% of Aberfeldie's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 7.2%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 4.3% while labour force increased by 4.1%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4%, labour force expand by 2.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for Aberfeldie, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Aberfeldie's median income among taxpayers is $66,437. The average income in this period was $104,668. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Aberfeldie would be approximately $72,828 (median) and $114,737 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in Aberfeldie rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes between the 82nd and 91st percentiles. The largest income segment comprises 31.1% earning $4,000+ weekly (1,269 residents), differing from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 43.2% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Aberfeldie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Aberfeldie, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 66.9% houses and 33.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aberfeldie stood at 40.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (38.7%) or rented (20.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Aberfeldie was recorded at $440, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Aberfeldie's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aberfeldie features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 78.1% of all households, including 43.5% couples with children, 22.7% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.9%, with lone person households at 19.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Aberfeldie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Aberfeldie, residents aged 15+ have a higher proportion of university qualifications (41.2%) compared to Australia's national average (30.4%) and Victoria's state average (33.4%). Bachelor degrees are the most common at 27.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.2% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (15.5%). Educational participation is high in the area, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes secondary education (10.3%), primary education (8.8%), and tertiary education (8.4%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 20 active transport stops operating within Aberfeldie, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are served by 6 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,324 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 189 meters from the nearest transport stop. As predominantly residential, most residents commute outward; car remains the dominant mode at 86%, while train usage stands at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. Notably, 39.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census).

Service frequency averages 332 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 116 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aberfeldie's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's assessment shows Aberfeldie has excellent health outcomes, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The most prevalent conditions were asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.2% and 5.8% of residents respectively. A total of 75.7% of residents reported no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne.

Private health cover is exceptionally high in Aberfeldie at approximately 68%, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with rankings even higher than the general population nationally.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Aberfeldie was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Aberfeldie's cultural diversity is above average, with 19.0% born overseas and 21.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Aberfeldie at 64.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 43.0%. Top ancestries include Australian (19.4%), English (18.2%), and Italian (13.9%), notably higher than regional averages of 5.2%.

Other ethnic groups with notable representation are Croatian at 2.1% (regional average 0.7%), Polish at 1.5% (0.8%), and Maltese at 2.6% (1.1%).

Aberfeldie's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 41 years, Aberfeldie's median age is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Aberfeldie at 16.2%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 10.8%. This concentration of the 55-64 age group is well above the national average of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, Aberfeldie's population has seen changes in several age groups since the previous census. The 25-34 age group grew from 9.2% to 10.8%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 3.6% to 4.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 16.8% to 15.1%, and the 5-14 age group dropped from 12.5% to 10.9%. Demographic projections suggest Aberfeldie's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 28%, adding 182 residents, reaching a total of 844. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are both expected to decrease in number.