Aberfeldie

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aberfeldie reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Aberfeldie's population is estimated at around 4,353 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 428 people (10.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,925 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,232 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 83 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,755 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Aberfeldie's 10.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.7%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 93.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the Aberfeldie statistical area (Lv2), with the area expected to increase by 661 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 11.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Aberfeldie recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Aberfeldie has seen approximately 37 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 188 homes. As of FY-26, seven approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents arriving per new home is around 0.2 per year between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting supply meets or exceeds demand. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $1,178,000, targeting the premium market segment.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals amount to $165,000, indicating minimal commercial activity. New development consists of 30% standalone homes and 70% medium and high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 67% houses. With around 191 people per dwelling approval, Aberfeldie exhibits growth area characteristics. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Aberfeldie is projected to grow by 480 residents through to 2041.

Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Aberfeldie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified three projects that could impact the area's performance significantly. These include LUMA Sunshine North, Maribyrnong River Master Plan Implementation, Buckley Street Level Crossing Removal, and 191 Rosamond Road Mixed-Use Development. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Aberfeldie well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Aberfeldie has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.3% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.4%. The workforce participation rate was 70.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services.

Manufacturing, however, is under-represented with only 5.0% of Aberfeldie's workforce compared to 7.2% in Greater Melbourne. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 5.4% while labour force grew by 5.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. In Victoria, between November 2024 and November 2025, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. This compares to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aberfeldie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Aberfeldie's median income among taxpayers is $66,437, with an average of $104,668. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Aberfeldie would be approximately $71,918 (median) and $113,303 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Aberfeldie rank highly nationally, between the 82nd and 91st percentiles. The largest income segment comprises 31.1% earning $4000+ weekly (1,353 residents), which differs from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. A substantial presence of higher earners is evident with 43.2% exceeding $3,000 weekly, suggesting strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of their income, reflecting robust purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Aberfeldie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with strong rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Aberfeldie, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.9% houses and 33.1% other dwellings including semi-detached properties, apartments, and others. Home ownership stood at 40.6%, with 38.7% of dwellings having a mortgage and 20.7% being rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, while the median weekly rent was $440. Nationally, Aberfeldie's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aberfeldie features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 2.8 people

Family households make up 78.1% of all households, including 43.5% couples with children, 22.7% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.9%, with lone person households at 19.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people.

Aberfeldie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Aberfeldie is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 41.2% have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 27.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (15.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in secondary education, 8.8% in primary education, and 8.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 20 operational transport stops in Aberfeldie, all serving buses. Six unique routes service these stops, collectively facilitating 2,324 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 189 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 332 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 116 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aberfeldie's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Aberfeldie, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 68% of the total population (2,960 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.2 and 5.8% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 75.7%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, which is notably higher than the 0% reported across Greater Melbourne. Aberfeldie has 16.1% of residents aged 65 and over (700 people). Health outcomes among seniors in this area are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Aberfeldie was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Aberfeldie has a cultural diversity above average, with 19.0% of its population born overseas and 21.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Aberfeldie, making up 64.7% of people there, compared to None% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (19.4%), English (18.2%), and Italian (13.9%).

Notably, Croatian (2.1%) is overrepresented in Aberfeldie compared to the regional average of None%. Similarly, Polish (1.5%) and Maltese (2.6%) are also overrepresented.

Aberfeldie's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 41 years, Aberfeldie's median age is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37, and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Aberfeldie has a notably higher proportion of the 55-64 age group (15.9% locally), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented (10.0%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group grew from 3.6% to 4.8% of Aberfeldie's population. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 12.5% to 11.2%, and the 45-54 age group dropped from 16.8% to 15.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Aberfeldie's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow strongly, adding 186 residents to reach 879. This growth is part of a broader demographic aging trend, with residents aged 65 and older representing 52% of the anticipated population increase. Conversely, population declines are predicted for the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups.