Essendon West

Population growth drivers in Essendon West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Essendon West's population is estimated at around 1,713. This reflects an increase of 154 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,559. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 1,684 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 31 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,663 persons per square kilometer. Essendon West's growth rate of 9.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area average at 4.5% and the national average. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Essendon West is expected to expand by 222 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 9.8% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Essendon West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Essendon West has seen approximately 18 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 92 homes were approved, with an additional two approved in FY26 so far. The average population increase per dwelling built over these years is 0.7 people.

This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices and supporting potential population growth beyond projections. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $645,000, which is higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. In FY26, commercial approvals totaled $3.7 million, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Essendon West has 68.0% more building activity per person, providing ample buyer choice despite recent moderation in development activity. This high level of developer interest is significantly above the national average. New developments consist of 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 67.0% houses), possibly due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. Essendon West reflects a developing area with approximately 118 people per approval.

Future projections estimate an increase of 167 residents by 2041, indicating that current development rates should comfortably meet demand and provide good conditions for buyers while potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Essendon West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. One major project is identified by AreaSearch as impacting this region: LUMA Sunshine North. Other key projects include the Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, and Maribyrnong River Master Plan Implementation.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Essendon West performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Essendon West has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 0.9% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.6%. The area's unemployment rate is below Greater Melbourne's, at 3.7% versus 4.6%, and its workforce participation rate is similar to the regional average (67.6%). Major employment sectors include construction, professional & technical services, and education & training. Construction stands out with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance has a limited presence at 9.6% compared to the regional figure of 14.2%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, labour force grew by 4.7%, with unemployment remaining stable. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5%, labour force expansion of 4.0%, and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Essendon West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch reports median taxpayer income in Essendon West was $65,612 during financial year 2022, with an average of $85,920. These figures are among the highest nationally, compared to Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, estimated incomes would be approximately $73,590 (median) and $96,368 (average). Census 2021 data shows Essendon West's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 81st and 85th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant, with 30.0% of residents (513 people). This aligns with broader metropolitan trends at 32.8%. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 are achieved by 36.9% of households, indicating strong consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.9% of income, with residents ranking in the 85th percentile for disposable income. Essendon West's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Essendon West displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Essendon West's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 67.0% houses and 33.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 75.8% houses and 24.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Essendon West stood at 36.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.5% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,682, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Essendon West was $450, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Essendon West's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,682 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Essendon West has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.3% of all households, including 40.3% couples with children, 18.9% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.7%, with lone person households at 25.6% and group households at 3.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Essendon West shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Essendon West is notably high, with 37.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to 27.7% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.8%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 28.0% of residents holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (15.5%). Educational participation is high, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.5% in secondary, 8.4% in primary, and 7.5% in tertiary education.

Essendon West is home to St Bernard's College, serving 1,555 students as of a specific date. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1100. Secondary education dominates with one school, while primary students typically attend schools in adjacent catchments. Essendon West functions as an education hub, offering 90.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 24.0, and attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Essendon West shows that there are eight active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with five individual routes providing service. Together, these routes facilitate 2,683 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 163 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 383 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 335 weekly trips per individual stop.

Essendon West's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Essendon West. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of the total population (1,039 people), compared to 58.6% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.6 and 6.3% of residents respectively. A total of 73.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.1% across Greater Melbourne. Essendon West has 16.9% of residents aged 65 and over (289 people), which is lower than the 21.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Essendon West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Essendon West has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 21.5% of its residents born overseas and 23.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Essendon West, making up 66.0% of the population, compared to 66.4% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (19.9%), English (18.8%), and Italian (13.6%).

Notably, Maltese, Croatian, and Sri Lankan ethnicities have higher representations in Essendon West than regionally: Maltese at 2.3% vs 2.8%, Croatian at 1.3% vs 2.0%, and Sri Lankan at 0.9% vs 0.4%.

Essendon West's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Essendon West is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and very close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Essendon West at 15.8%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.8%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 14.6% to 16.0% of Essendon West's population, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 17.1% to 15.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Essendon West. The 55-64 age group is expected to grow by 29%, reaching 261 people from the current figure of 202, leading the demographic shift. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 56% of this growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.