Essendon North

Population growth drivers in Essendon North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

According to population updates from the ABS for the surrounding region combined with new address validations by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Essendon North has an estimated 3,982 residents as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 911 people (29.7%) compared to the 2021 Census, which counted 3,071 residents. The change is calculated from the resident population of 3,981, calculated by AreaSearch using the latest ABS ERP data release (June 2025) plus an additional 261 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population size corresponds to a density ratio of 5,454 persons per square kilometer, placing the area in the top 10% of all Australian locations analyzed by AreaSearch and highlighting local land as a highly sought-after resource. The 29.7% growth rate in the suburb of Essendon North since the 2021 census outperformed the broader SA3 region (9.0%) and the state, making it a clear regional growth leader. Population increases in the area were mostly fueled by overseas migration, which made up approximately 93.0% of the total population gains during recent times.

AreaSearch employs ABS and Geoscience Australia forecasts for each SA2 region, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the baseline year. For any SA2 regions lacking this data, AreaSearch utilizes the Victorian State Government's Regional and LGA forecasts from 2023, adjusting them via a weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates across different age cohorts from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at future demographic patterns, the suburb of Essendon North is projected to experience population growth above the national median for statistical areas, with expectations to grow by 634 persons by 2041 based on compiled SA2-level forecasts, representing a total rise of 15.9% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Essendon North among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

According to AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approvals allocated from statistical area data, Essendon North averages about 32 residential property approvals annually, matching an estimated 162 homes over the last 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 51 approvals have been documented. With an average of 4.7 people moving to the district for every new home completed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is outstripping supply by a wide margin, which generally drives up prices and intensifies competition among buyers, while new properties are built at an average value of $1,178,000, indicating that developers are focusing on upmarket, premium properties. Furthermore, commercial development approvals of $33,000 have been logged this financial year, highlighting the predominantly residential character of the area.

Essendon North has construction rates per capita that are quite close to those of Greater Melbourne, maintaining a market balance in line with the wider metropolitan region. Recent residential building approvals consist of 56.0% detached houses and 44.0% townhouses or apartments, showing a growing selection of medium-density choices that provide opportunities across various price levels, from traditional family homes to more affordable compact living arrangements. Recent building activity favors detached homes more than the current resident profile indicates (31.0% at the Census), showing that strong demand for family residences continues despite rising density pressures. With approximately 72 people per residential approval, Essendon North displays the typical traits of an expanding growth district.

Projections indicate that Essendon North is set to add 633 residents up to 2041, based on the most recent quarterly estimate by AreaSearch. Judging by current construction trends, the supply of new housing is expected to easily satisfy this demand, creating favorable buying conditions and potentially supporting population growth beyond the current forecast levels.

Essendon North has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

An area's long-term performance is heavily shaped by updates to local infrastructure, major projects, and municipal planning initiatives. In total, no projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to influence the local area. Key projects of interest include LUMA Sunshine North, Airport Toyota Expansion, Textron Aviation Hangar 83, and Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, with the following list detailing the most relevant developments.

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Employment performance in Essendon North exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Essendon North features a highly qualified labor force, with strong numbers working in professional services, an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and an estimated job growth rate of 8.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregations of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 2,492 residents are employed, which places the local unemployment rate 0.5% below the Greater Melbourne average of 4.8%, while workforce participation is standard at 75.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.2%. Census data reveals that a high 33.2% of residents worked from home, though the influence of pandemic lockdowns should be kept in mind.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. The community has a notably high concentration of workers in public administration & safety, with employment levels in this sector reaching 1.5 times the regional average. On the other hand, retail trade is less prominent, accounting for 8.2% of employment compared to 9.8% across the wider region. This mostly residential locality appears to provide a limited number of local jobs, as shown by comparing the count of working residents against the local working population from the Census.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from broader statistical areas, the year leading up to March 2026 saw employment levels rise by 8.4% and the labor force grow by 7.9%, which drove the unemployment rate down by 0.4 percentage points. This stands in contrast to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.1%, the labor force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia published in May-25 offer additional context on future demand in Essendon North. These five and ten-year projections have been aligned with the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While nationwide employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the growth rate varies greatly by industry sector. Applying these sector-specific forecasts to the local employment mix suggests that employment in Essendon North should grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (note that this is a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not account for localized population changes).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to the latest ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, the suburb of Essendon North records exceptionally high income levels on a national scale. The median income for local taxpayers is $65,049 and the average income is $102,481, which compares to median and average figures of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates indicate incomes of approximately $71,307 (median) and $112,340 (average) as of March 2026. Census figures from 2021 show individual weekly earnings are in the 81st percentile nationally ($1,031 weekly), though household income is lower at the 47th percentile. The statistics show the largest income bracket contains 33.2% of residents (1,322 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, mirroring trends in the surrounding region where 32.8% fall into the same bracket. Housing affordability pressure is significant, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, placing the area in the 47th percentile, while the SEIFA income ranking places the locality in the 7th decile.

Essendon North features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

According to the latest Census, the housing mix in Essendon North consisted of 30.8% detached houses and 69.3% other dwellings (such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and alternative housing options), compared to Greater Melbourne's mix of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the home ownership rate in Essendon North trailed behind the Melbourne metropolitan average, sitting at 27.4%, while the remaining properties were either mortgaged (26.0%) or rented (46.6%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the area was identical to the Melbourne metro average at $2,000, whereas the median weekly rent was recorded at $360, compared to Melbourne metro averages of $2,000 and $390. On a national level, mortgage repayments in Essendon North are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents remain lower than the national figure of $375.

Essendon North features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households represent the majority of homes at 56.3% of the total, which includes 23.9% couples with children, 21.4% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 43.7% of the total, with single-person households at 39.9% and group households making up 3.6%. The median household size of 2.1 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Essendon North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The local community experiences some educational hurdles, with the proportion of residents holding a university qualification (39.0%) sitting well below the SA4 regional average of 57.1%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 25.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational and technical skills are highly represented, with 27.3% of residents aged 15 and over holding vocational qualifications, comprising advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (16.9%).

Engagement in education is particularly high in the area, with 26.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal studies. This total includes 7.8% in primary school, 6.8% in tertiary institutions, and 6.1% attending secondary school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 11 active transit stops operating within Essendon North, providing a combination of light rail and bus services. These stops are serviced by 7 different routes, which support a total of 3,097 weekly passenger journeys. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 182 meters from the nearest stop. As the area is predominantly residential, most working residents commute out of the suburb, with private cars remaining the primary travel mode at 76%, and trains accounting for 10%. Car ownership averages 0.8 vehicles per household, which is below the metropolitan average. A high 33.2% of residents work from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect the impact of pandemic restrictions at that time.

Service frequency averages 442 departures per day across all local routes, which translates to approximately 281 weekly trips at each individual transit stop.

Essendon North's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health statistics show positive trends for the local population, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results that align with national averages. The rate of common health issues is low among the general public, though it rises above the national average among older, high-risk groups, and private health insurance coverage is exceptionally high at approximately 67% of the total population (2,673 people). This compares to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent health issues identified in the locality are mental health conditions and arthritis, affecting 8.7 and 7.5% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 71.6% of the population reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. The working-age population is notably healthy with low rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 18.4% of the population (732 people), which is higher than the 15.0% average for Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among older residents present some difficulties, ranking lower nationally than the rest of the local population.

Essendon North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Essendon North has a higher level of cultural diversity than most local property markets, with 32.1% of the population born outside Australia and 30.3% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion in the area, accounting for 53.8% of residents. The most significant religious overrepresentation is Hinduism, which represents 5.7% of the population, compared to 4.4% across Greater Melbourne.

Looking at parent countries of birth, the three largest ancestry groups in Essendon North are English at 18.9% of the population, Australian at 16.3%, and Italian at 12.0%, which is significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%. There are also notable differences in the representation of other backgrounds: Hungarian ancestry is represented at 0.5% (compared to 0.3% across the region), Polish at 1.2% (compared to 0.8%), and Maltese at 2.1% (compared to 1.1%).

Essendon North's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age of 38 years in Essendon North is close to the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and matches the national median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Essendon North has a higher proportion of young adults aged 25 - 34 (18.3%) but fewer children aged 5 - 14 (8.6%). Since the 2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age cohort has expanded from 10.2% to 11.6% of the population, and the 75 to 84 group has grown from 4.5% to 5.9%. In contrast, the 35 to 44 age cohort has fallen from 16.1% to 14.5%, and the 45 to 54 group has decreased from 13.7% to 12.4%. By 2041, Essendon North is expected to experience significant shifts in its age structure. The 55 to 64 cohort will lead the demographic shift with a 30% increase (140 people), rising from 461 to 602. The aging trend is clear, with residents aged 65 and over representing 50% of the projected growth, while population declines are forecast for the 35 to 44 and 0 to 4 age brackets.