Pascoe Vale

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pascoe Vale's population is around 18,868 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,654 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,214. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,674 in June 2025 and an additional 295 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,075 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Pascoe Vale's growth of 9.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA3 area (7.9%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 74.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these trends, Pascoe Vale is predicted to experience exceptional growth over the period, increasing by 8,825 persons to 2041 and reflecting a gain of 45.7% in total population over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pascoe Vale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pascoe Vale averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 663 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 65 approvals have been recorded. The average population increase per year for each dwelling built in Pascoe Vale between FY-21 and FY-25 was 0.7 people. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choices and allowing for population growth beyond current forecasts.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $370,000. In the current financial year, there have been $425,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus compared to Greater Melbourne. Pascoe Vale records construction levels 12.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. New development consists of 22.0% detached houses and 78.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser development that appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 48.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With approximately 118 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Pascoe Vale is projected to add 8,631 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Coburg Health and Community Services Precinct, 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Fame Apartments, and Assembly Broadmeadows. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Pascoe Vale well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Pascoe Vale has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation, an unemployment rate of 2.6% as of December 2025, and stable employment over the past year. Residents in work totalled 11,172, with an unemployment rate of 2.2% below Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Workforce participation was 73.7%, similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

According to Census responses, 37.3% worked from home, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Public administration & safety stands out with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing has lower representation at 5.7% versus the regional average of 7.2%.

The area's limited local job opportunities are evident in its resident-to-working population ratio. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, Pascoe Vale's labour force decreased by 0.8%, with employment declining by 0.4%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Pascoe Vale SA2 was $65,582 in financial year 2023. The average income was $78,870 during the same period. These figures are based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. Nationally, these incomes are high compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 in financial year 2023. As of March 2026, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $71,891 and the average income around $86,457, accounting for a 9.62% growth since financial year 2023 according to Wage Price Index data. In Pascoe Vale, incomes clustered around the 70th percentile nationally based on 2021 Census figures. Income distribution shows that 33.8% of locals (6,377 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income in Pascoe Vale. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 66th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Pascoe Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pascoe Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 48.2% houses and 51.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This differs from Melbourne metro's structure, which was 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale stood at 29.6%, aligning with Melbourne metro's figure. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 34.9% and rented dwellings made up 35.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Pascoe Vale was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.1% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pascoe Vale is notably high, with 40.2% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications as of 2016 Census data, compared to the SA4 region average of 27.7% and the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 27.2% of residents holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 11.1% and certificates account for 16.1%. Educational participation is high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the Census date.

This includes 9.0% enrolled in primary education, 6.4% in tertiary education, and 6.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Pascoe Vale shows that there are 72 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 7 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 2,957 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 167 meters from their nearest transport stop. As Pascoe Vale is primarily residential, most residents commute outward from the area. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation for residents, with 80% using this method, while 11% use the train.

The average vehicle ownership per dwelling in Pascoe Vale is 1.1, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high percentage of residents, at 37.3%, work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 422 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pascoe Vale's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Pascoe Vale shows positive outcomes overall.

Mortality rates and health conditions are broadly in line with national benchmarks, with low prevalence of common health conditions among the general population. However, prevalence is higher among older, at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Private health cover is high, with approximately 58% (11,018 people) having it. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 8.0% and 7.9% of residents respectively. 71.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Under-65 population has better than average health outcomes. Pascoe Vale has 13.9% (2,622 people) residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale's population, born overseas, was 31.4%. Speaking a language other than English at home was 34.9%. Christianity dominated Pascoe Vale with 49.5%, while Islam was overrepresented at 8.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

Top three ancestry groups were Australian (16.7%), English (16.5%), and Italian (15.5%), the latter being significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Notably, Greek (4.8%) was overrepresented in Pascoe Vale compared to regionally (2.7%). Lebanese (2.7%) and Maltese (1.7%) also showed notable divergences from regional averages of 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.

Pascoe Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Pascoe Vale has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years. This is slightly below the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (18.4%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.8%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 16.9% to 18.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 has decreased from 11.3% to 10.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Pascoe Vale's age profile will change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 65%, adding 1,460 residents and reaching a total of 3,700 residents in this age bracket.