Pascoe Vale

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Pascoe Vale's population is around 18,902 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,688 people (9.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,214 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,434 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 261 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 4,082 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought resource. Pascoe Vale's 9.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (8.7%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 72.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas, is predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 9,056 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 45.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pascoe Vale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pascoe Vale has averaged around 132 new dwelling approvals annually, totalling 663 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 55 approvals have been recorded. With an average of only 0.7 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $370,000. There have also been $425,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale records somewhat elevated construction (12.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. New development consists of 22.0% detached houses and 78.0% attached dwellings. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 48.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 118 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale shows characteristics of a growth area.

Future projections show Pascoe Vale adding 8,588 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 17 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Coburg Health and Community Services Precinct, 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Fame Apartments, and Assembly Broadmeadows, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Pascoe Vale well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Pascoe Vale possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.6%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,172 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (74.8% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 37.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical. The area has particular employment specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 5.7% versus the regional average of 7.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decreasing by 0.8% alongside a 0.4% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Pascoe Vale. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Pascoe Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Pascoe Vale SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $65,582 and an average of $78,870 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is very high nationally, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $70,993 (median) and $85,377 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Pascoe Vale cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 33.8% of locals (6,388 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 66th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Pascoe Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Pascoe Vale, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 48.2% houses and 51.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Pascoe Vale was in line with that of Melbourne metro, at 29.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.9%) or rented (35.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,100, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 67.1% of all households, comprising 31.4% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 4.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pascoe Vale significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 27.7% in the SA4 region and 30.4% in Australia. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 26.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 27.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (16.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.4% in tertiary education, and 6.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 72 active transport stops operating within Pascoe Vale, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 2,957 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 167 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 80%, with 11% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A high 37.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 422 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pascoe Vale's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Pascoe Vale residents. AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions shows results broadly in line with national benchmarks, with the prevalence of common health conditions being quite low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high, at approximately 58% of the total population (~11,038 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.0% and 7.9% of residents, respectively, while 71.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 14.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,733 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 31.4% of its population born overseas and 34.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Pascoe Vale is Christianity, which makes up 49.5% of the people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 8.3% of the population, compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Pascoe Vale are Australian, comprising 16.7% of the population, English, comprising 16.5% of the population, and Italian, comprising 15.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Greek is notably overrepresented at 4.8% of Pascoe Vale (vs 2.7% regionally), Lebanese at 2.7% (vs 0.8%) and Maltese at 1.7% (vs 1.1%).

Pascoe Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 36 years, Pascoe Vale's median age nearly matches the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is similarly modestly under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale has a higher concentration of 35 - 44 residents (18.4%) but fewer 15 - 24 year-olds (10.6%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 16.9% to 18.4% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 19.0% to 17.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Pascoe Vale's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 64%, adding 1,455 residents to reach 3,720.