Pascoe Vale

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pascoe Vale's population is around 18,902 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,688 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,214. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,434 in June 2024 and an additional 261 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,082 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth of 9.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 8.7%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Pascoe Vale is expected to increase by 9,056 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 45.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pascoe Vale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pascoe Vale averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 663 homes. As of FY-26, 52 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 0.7 people moved to Pascoe Vale per year for each dwelling built. The average construction value of new properties was $370,000.

In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $425,000, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale's construction rate is 12.0% higher per person over the past five years. New development consists of 22.0% detached houses and 78.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser development. This shift addresses reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands. Pascoe Vale has around 118 people per dwelling approval, indicating growth area characteristics.

By 2041, AreaSearch estimates an increase of 8,588 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The impact of local infrastructure changes significantly influences an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could potentially affect the area. Notable projects include Coburg Health and Community Services Precinct, 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Fame Apartments, and Assembly Broadmeadows. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Pascoe Vale well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Pascoe Vale has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.1% as of an unspecified date. Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 1.6%.

As of September 2025, 11,252 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was 75.7%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 37.3% of residents worked from home, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services.

The area specializes in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 5.7% compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 1.6%, labour force by 1.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded higher growth rates and increases in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest Pascoe Vale's employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Pascoe Vale SA2 has a median taxpayer income of $65,582 and an average income of $78,870 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, these figures are high, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $70,993 (median) and $85,377 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in Pascoe Vale cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that 33.8% of locals (6,388 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 66th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Pascoe Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pascoe Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 48.2% houses and 51.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale was 29.6%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. Dwellings were either mortgaged (34.9%) or rented (35.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Pascoe Vale was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.1% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households making up 4.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pascoe Vale is notably high, with 40.2% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications as of 2021, compared to the SA4 region's 27.7% and Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.0% and graduate diplomas at 4.0%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.2% of residents aged 15 years and over holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 16.1%. Educational participation is high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data available.

This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.4% in tertiary education, and 6.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pascoe Vale has 72 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by seven distinct routes, facilitating 2,957 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is considered excellent, with residents on average located 167 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward, with cars being the primary mode at 80%, followed by trains at 11%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 37.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 422 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pascoe Vale's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Pascoe Vale residents have positive health outcomes overall, with mortality rates and health conditions aligning with national averages.

The prevalence of common health issues is low among the general population but higher in older, at-risk groups. Approximately 58% (~11,038 people) have private health cover, which is very high. Mental health issues affect 8.0% of residents, while asthma impacts 7.9%. Around 71.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Under-65 residents show better-than-average health outcomes. The area has 14.5% (2,733 people) of residents aged 65 and over, with seniors facing some health challenges but ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale's population, as of the 2016 Census, had a higher proportion born overseas at 31.4%, compared to most other local areas. In Pascoe Vale, 34.9% spoke a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale, with 49.5%.

Islam's representation stood out at 8.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%. For ancestry, Australians were the largest group at 16.7%, followed by English at 16.5% and Italian at 15.5%, significantly higher than Melbourne's regional average of 5.2%. Notably, Greeks made up 4.8% in Pascoe Vale compared to 2.7% regionally, Lebanese were at 2.7% versus 0.8%, and Maltese at 1.7% against the regional average of 1.1%.

Pascoe Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Pascoe Vale has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37. This is modestly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (18.4%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 16.9% to 18.4%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 19.0% to 17.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Pascoe Vale's age profile will significantly change. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 64%, adding 1,455 residents to reach a total of 3,720.