Pascoe Vale

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pascoe Vale's population was approximately 18,534 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,320 people from the 2021 Census count of 17,214. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 18,434 in June 2024 and the addition of 204 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,003 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 7.7% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 region at 7.0%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these trends, Pascoe Vale is predicted to experience exceptional growth, with an expected increase of 9,056 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 48.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pascoe Vale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pascoe Vale averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 663 homes. As of FY-26, 39 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.7 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand. The average construction value of new properties was $370,000.

In FY-26, there have been $425,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus compared to Greater Melbourne. Pascoe Vale recorded 12.0% higher construction activity per person than the regional average over the five-year period, offering reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. New development consisted of 22.0% detached houses and 78.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser development to provide accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix, which is 48.0% houses, due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 118 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Pascoe Vale is projected to add 8,956 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Coburg Health and Community Services Precinct, 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Fame Apartments, and Assembly Broadmeadows. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Pascoe Vale well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Pascoe Vale has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 3.1% as of a certain period, with estimated employment growth at 1.6% over the past year.

As of September 2025, 11,252 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was 68.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries included health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. The area had a particular specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, manufacturing showed lower representation at 5.7% compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 1.6%, labour force by 1.7%, resulting in a slight rise in unemployment. Greater Melbourne recorded higher employment and labour force growth but also saw a larger increase in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Pascoe Vale SA2 has a median taxpayer income of $62,451 and an average income of $76,127 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Nationally, these figures are high compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $70,045 and the average income around $85,384, factoring in a 12.16% growth according to the Wage Price Index since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Pascoe Vale are at the 70th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 33.8% of locals (6,264 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income in Pascoe Vale, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 66th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Pascoe Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pascoe Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 48.2% houses and 51.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 62.8% houses and 37.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale was 29.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.9% and rented dwellings at 35.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent in Pascoe Vale was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $381. Nationally, Pascoe Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.1% of all households, including 31.4% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pascoe Vale is notably high, with 40.2% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications as of 2021, compared to the SA4 region's 27.7% and Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.2% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (16.1%). Educational participation is high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data available.

This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.4% in tertiary education, and 6.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The report indicates that there are currently 71 active public transport stops operating within Pascoe Vale. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 7 individual lines. Together, these routes facilitate 5,054 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of the transport system is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 167 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, across all routes, service frequency stands at 722 trips per day, which equates to roughly 71 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pascoe Vale's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Pascoe Vale shows a relatively positive picture, with low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, although this is higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 58% (~10,712 people) have private health cover, compared to 52.5% across Greater Melbourne.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 8.0 and 7.9% of residents respectively. About 71.9% report no medical ailments, similar to the 72.2% in Greater Melbourne. Around 13.8% (2,566 people) are aged 65 and over, with health outcomes among seniors requiring more attention than the broader population.

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 31.4% of residents born overseas and 34.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale, comprising 49.5% of its population. Islam's representation was lower than the Greater Melbourne average, making up 8.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (16.7%), English (16.5%), and Italian (15.5%). Notably, Greek (4.8%) and Maltese (1.7%) had similar regional percentages, while Lebanese (2.7%) was lower than the regional average of 4.2%.

Pascoe Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Pascoe Vale has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (18.3%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.5%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 16.9% to 18.3%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 19.0% to 18.1%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Pascoe Vale's age profile, with the strongest growth expected in the 45-54 cohort, which is projected to grow by 68%, adding 1,503 residents to reach a total of 3,720.