Gowanbrae

Population growth drivers in Gowanbrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Gowanbrae's population, according to AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 3,189 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 78 people, a rise of 2.5%, since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,111. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,189 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,098 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, primarily driving area's population growth.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. In terms of population projections moving forward, the area is forecasted to experience significant population growth in the top quartile of national statistical areas. By 2041, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 1,290 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 40.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gowanbrae according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gowanbrae has seen approximately 3 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 17 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 2.9 people per year moved to the area for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating solid demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $523,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $150,000 in commercial development approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Greater Melbourne, where Gowanbrae records markedly lower building activity (84.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (67.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. The location has approximately 1025 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Future projections show Gowanbrae adding 1,290 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Gowanbrae has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects potentially affecting the area. Notable ones are: Artisan Architects' 18-22 Howes Street Apartments, Earl Street Airport West Development at 17-25 Earl Street, and Airport West Apartments at 12 Howes Street, along with Louis Street Airport West development at 19-21 Louis Street. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Gowanbrae demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Gowanbrae has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.5% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 1.7%.

As of September 2025, 1911 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was 66.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

Health care & social assistance had limited presence at 11.8% compared to 14.2% regionally. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, labour force by 1.5%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gowanbrae's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Gowanbrae SA2 was $52,540 and the average was $61,447 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025 (12.16%), estimated current incomes are approximately $58,929 (median) and $68,919 (average). Census data indicates that incomes in Gowanbrae cluster around the 72nd percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 to $2,999 is dominant, with 28.9% of residents (921 people) falling within this range. This aligns with regional trends where this cohort represents 32.8%. A substantial proportion of high earners (34.5%) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Gowanbrae. Housing expenses account for 14.1% of income, while strong earnings place residents in the 78th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Gowanbrae displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gowanbrae's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 66.8% houses and 33.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 62.8% houses and 37.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gowanbrae stood at 32.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.2% and rented ones at 14.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, matching Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $423, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $381 respectively. Nationally, Gowanbrae's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gowanbrae has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.2% of all households, including 40.8% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.8%, with lone person households at 22.2% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Gowanbrae performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Educational qualifications in Gowanbrae trail Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0%. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (18.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in secondary education, 9.5% in primary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 17 active transport stops in Gowanbrae, served by a mix of buses. These stops are covered by 8 individual routes, offering 1,945 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 102 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 277 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 114 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Gowanbrae is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Gowanbrae shows above-average health outcomes with low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population.

However, this prevalence is higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 51% (~1,613 people) of Gowanbrae's total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.2%) and arthritis (7.2%). About 72.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.2% in Greater Melbourne. Gowanbrae has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 18.7% (595 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 14.0%.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Gowanbrae was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gowanbrae was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 25.4% of its population born overseas and 30.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Gowanbrae, comprising 61.1% of people, compared to 43.9% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are English (18.3%), Australian (18.0%), and Italian (13.9%).

Notably, Croatian (1.7%) is overrepresented in Gowanbrae compared to the regional average of 0.7%. Maltese (2.9%) and Sri Lankan (1.3%) groups also show higher representation than their respective regional averages of 1.7% and 0.6%.

Gowanbrae's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Gowanbrae has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Gowanbrae has an over-representation of the 75-84 age cohort (8.2% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (11.6%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.6% to 8.2%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 12.6% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 14.0% to 11.5%, and the 45-54 group decreased from 15.7% to 14.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Gowanbrae's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow substantially, increasing by 221 people (84%) from 263 to 485.