Tullamarine
Statistical Area - sa2

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tullamarine's population is around 6772 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 196 people (3.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6576 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6710 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 93 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1754 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 74.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 2476 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, with an increase of 35.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tullamarine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tullamarine has received approximately 39 dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Between FY21 and FY25, Tullamarine had a total of 199 dwelling approvals, with an additional 4 approved in FY26 so far. Despite population decline during this period, the relative development activity has been adequate for buyers.

The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $369,000, which is under regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $623,000, suggesting a predominantly residential focus compared to Greater Melbourne. Tullamarine has significantly less development activity than the regional average, with 53.0% fewer approvals per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. The current development composition is 22.0% detached houses and 78.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the area's existing housing stock (currently 60.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

Tullamarine has approximately 173 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. By 2041, Tullamarine is projected to grow by 2,414 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tullamarine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include the 11 Ian Crescent Townhouses designed by DKO Architecture, upgrades to the Western Ring Road (M80) at Sharps Rd, Tullamarine, and the Greenvale to Attwood Shared Path Project. The following list provides details on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Tullamarine recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Tullamarine's workforce is skilled with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 6.3% as of a certain past year.

Employment growth over that year was estimated at 4.2%. As of June 2025, 3,579 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Tullamarine lags behind Greater Melbourne at 58.1% compared to 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance.

The area has a high specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There are 0.7 workers per resident, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 4.2%, labour force grew by 4.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points in Tullamarine. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.5% and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tullamarine's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on 1 July 2022 for financial year 2022, Tullamarine's median income among taxpayers is $52,540, with an average of $61,447. This is below the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 and the average was $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% between financial year 2022 and March 2025, current estimates would be approximately $57,852 (median) and $67,659 (average). Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Tullamarine, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. Distribution data shows that 32.8% of the community earn between $1,500 - 2,999 (2,221 individuals), mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tullamarine, with only 82.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 27th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tullamarine's dwelling structure in the latest Census showed 60.2% houses and 39.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tullamarine stood at 33.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.0% and rented ones at 34.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,834. Median weekly rent in Tullamarine was recorded as $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 64.1 percent of all households, including 25.6 percent couples with children, 24.4 percent couples without children, and 12.5 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9 percent, with lone person households at 33.4 percent and group households comprising 2.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2 people.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 21.0% significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (23.2%).

A substantial 24.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.0% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 4.1% in tertiary education. Tullamarine Primary School provides local educational services within Tullamarine, with an enrollment of 230 students as of a recent report. The school demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 992) with balanced educational opportunities. It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Limited local school capacity (3.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.5) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis in Tullamarine shows that there are currently 30 active transport stops operating. These stops service a mix of bus routes, totaling 7 individual routes. The combined weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 1,700.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located approximately 211 meters from the nearest transport stop. The service frequency across all routes averages 242 trips per day, which equates to about 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,426 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.8 and 7.9% of residents respectively. 67.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 76.3% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 21.5% of Tullamarine's residents are aged 65 and over (1,458 people), which is higher than the 10.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Tullamarine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.6% of its population born overseas and 36.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tullamarine, comprising 64.1% of the population, compared to 45.4% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups in Tullamarine are English (17.6%), Australian (16.6%), and Other (16.1%).

Notably, Italian (11.7%) and Maltese (2.9%) populations are higher than the regional averages of 6.8% and 1.8%, respectively, while Greek population is also notably higher at 4.8%.

Tullamarine's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age of Tullamarine is 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Tullamarine at 9.4%, while those aged 15-24 are under-represented at 8.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.1% to 9.4% of the population. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Tullamarine's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 442 people (70%) from 633 to 1,076.