Tullamarine

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tullamarine's population is around 6,756 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 180 people (2.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,576 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,710 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 87 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,750 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 74.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 2,476 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 36.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tullamarine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tullamarine has seen around 39 new homes approved annually, with 199 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 12 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, which is a positive for buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $308,000, consistent with regional patterns. Additionally, $623,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tullamarine has significantly less development activity (53.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 22.0% detached dwellings and 78.0% townhouses or apartments. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 60.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 173 people per dwelling approval, Tullamarine shows characteristics of a low density area.

Looking ahead, Tullamarine is expected to grow by 2,430 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tullamarine has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 28thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Tullamarine Logistics Estate, Assembly Tullamarine, 11 Ian Crescent Townhouses by DKO Architecture, and The Quadrant Tullamarine, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Tullamarine has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Tullamarine features a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 5.3%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,521 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.5% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (65.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 21.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 5.7% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The ratio of 0.7 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.3% while the labour force decreased by 0.8%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Tullamarine. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tullamarine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Tullamarine SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $56,769 and an average of $65,138 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,452 (median) and $70,512 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Tullamarine, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 32.8% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,215 residents), mirroring the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Tullamarine, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 60.2% houses and 39.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Tullamarine was higher than that of Melbourne metro, at 33.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (32.0%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.1% of all households, comprising 25.6% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 33.4% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (21.0%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (23.2%).

A substantial 24.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.0% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 30 active transport stops operating within Tullamarine, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 1,260 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 211 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 90%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 21.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 180 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~3,506 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.8% and 7.9% of residents, respectively, while 67.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 22.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,499 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tullamarine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine scores highly on cultural diversity, with 35.6% of its population born overseas and 36.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Tullamarine is Christianity, which makes up 64.1% of the population. This compares to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Tullamarine are English, comprising 17.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 16.6% of the population, and Other, comprising 16.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 11.7% of Tullamarine (vs 5.2% regionally), Maltese at 2.9% (vs 1.1%) and Croatian at 1.4% (vs 0.7%).

Tullamarine's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Tullamarine is somewhat higher than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (10.1% locally), while 15 - 24 year-olds are under-represented (9.1%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.1% to 10.1% of the population. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 9.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Tullamarine's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 392 people (57%) from 683 to 1,076.