Tullamarine

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Tullamarine's population is around 6,765 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 189 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,576 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,710 in Jun 2024 and an additional 90 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level equates to a density ratio of 1,752 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 74.8% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, a significant population increase is forecast in the top quartile of national areas, with Tullamarine expected to grow by 2,476 persons, reflecting a gain of 35.8% over the 17 years based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tullamarine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tullamarine has seen approximately 39 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 199 homes have been approved, with a further 8 approved so far in FY26. Despite population decline in recent years, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, which could benefit buyers.

The average expected construction cost of new properties is $308,000, aligning with regional patterns. This year, $623,000 worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus compared to Greater Melbourne, where development activity is 53.0% higher per person on average. Recent construction in Tullamarine consists of approximately 22.0% detached dwellings and 78.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 60.0% houses. This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. With around 173 people per dwelling approval, Tullamarine exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tullamarine is expected to grow by approximately 2,421 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tullamarine has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects potentially affecting the area. Notable projects include Tullamarine Logistics Estate, Assembly Tullamarine, 11 Ian Crescent Townhouses by DKO Architecture, and The Quadrant Tullamarine. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Tullamarine are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tullamarine's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. The unemployment rate was 6.3% as of September 2025.

Employment grew by an estimated 1.4% over the past year. As of September 2025, there were 3,526 employed residents with an unemployment rate of 6.7%, which is 2 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Tullamarine was 58.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance.

Transport, postal & warehousing has particularly high employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence with 5.7% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.4%, labour force grew by 1.6%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest total employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Tullamarine's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Tullamarine SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $52,540 and an average of $61,447 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was below the national average, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $54,892 and average income being $73,761. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,929 (median) and $68,919 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Tullamarine rank modestly, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 32.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,218 residents), which is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tullamarine, with only 82.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tullamarine, as per the latest Census, consisted of 60.2% houses and 39.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Tullamarine was higher than Melbourne metro at 33.1%, with the rest being mortgaged (32.0%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,834. The median weekly rent figure in Tullamarine was recorded at $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.1% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 33.4% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 10.9% and certificates make up 23.2%. A total of 24.4% of the population is currently engaged in formal education, including 8.0% in primary, 5.2% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.0% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 30 active transport stops operating within Tullamarine, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 1,700 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 211 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 242 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3423 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.8 and 7.9% of residents respectively. Sixty-seven percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 76.3% across Greater Melbourne. Twenty-one point five percent of residents are aged 65 and over (1456 people), which is higher than the 10.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Tullamarine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.6% of its population born overseas and 36.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tullamarine, accounting for 64.1% of the population, compared to 45.4% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestral groups in Tullamarine are English (17.6%), Australian (16.6%), and Other (16.1%).

Notably, Italian ancestry is overrepresented at 11.7%, compared to the regional average of 6.8%. Maltese ancestry also stands out at 2.9% (versus 1.8%) regionally, as does Croatian ancestry at 1.4% (versus 0.6%).

Tullamarine's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Tullamarine has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Tullamarine has an over-representation of the 75-84 age group (9.4%) and an under-representation of the 15-24 age group (8.8%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.1% to 9.4%, while the 65-74 age group has decreased from 11.2% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Tullamarine's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 442 people (70%), increasing from 633 to 1,076.