Tullamarine

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Tullamarine's population is 6,756 as of May 2026. This is an increase of 180 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,576. The change is inferred from ABS data: 6,727 in June 2025 and 101 new addresses since the Census date. Population density is 1,750 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.7% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Tullamarine is projected to have a population of 9,227, reflecting a gain of 35.9% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tullamarine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tullamarine has seen approximately 39 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 199 homes were approved, with a further 15 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline in recent years, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost of new properties is $308,000, consistent with regional patterns. This financial year, commercial approvals valued at $623,000 have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus compared to Greater Melbourne. Tullamarine has significantly less development activity than the regional average per person (51.0% below). Recent construction comprises 22.0% detached dwellings and 78.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns where houses make up 60.0%. This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Tullamarine has around 173 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area.

By 2041, Tullamarine is projected to grow by approximately 2,422 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tullamarine has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified twelve projects likely affecting the area. Notable projects include Tullamarine Logistics Estate, Assembly Tullamarine, 11 Ian Crescent Townhouses designed by DKO Architecture, and The Quadrant Tullamarine. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Tullamarine has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Tullamarine has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate was 5.3% as of December 2024. As of December 2025, 3,521 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 5.8%, which is 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Tullamarine is at 64.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to the Census, 21.1% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance sectors. The area has a particularly high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence with only 5.7% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There is an above-average ratio of 0.7 workers per resident in Tullamarine. Over the year ending December 2025, employment increased by 0.3%, while the labour force decreased by 0.8%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and an increase in unemployment rate by 0.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6%, with Tullamarine's employment projected to increase by 6.1% based on its current industry mix. Over ten years, national employment is forecast to grow by 13.7%, with Tullamarine's employment estimated to rise by 12.7%.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Tullamarine SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $56,769 and an average income of $65,138 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is below Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 during the same period. By March 2026, estimates based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023 suggest approximately $62,230 median income and $71,404 average income in Tullamarine. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank modestly in Tullamarine, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 32.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, with 2,215 residents falling into this category, mirroring the surrounding region's distribution. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tullamarine, with only 82.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Tullamarine, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 9 August 2016, comprised 60.2% houses and 39.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metropolitan area's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Tullamarine was higher than that of Melbourne metro, at 33.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (32.0%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, recorded as of 2016, while the median weekly rent figure was $351. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, reported in 2016, while rents were less than the national figure of $375 for the same year.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households are the most prevalent, accounting for 64.1% of all households. They consist of 25.6% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 33.4% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6 people.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (23.2%).

A substantial 24.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.0% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 30 active public transport stops in Tullamarine, all bus stops. Seven routes serve these stops, carrying 1,260 weekly passengers collectively. Transport access is good, with residents typically 211 metres from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, with cars being the dominant mode at 90%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.1, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 21.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 180 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is slightly lower than the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~3,506 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.8 and 7.9% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 67.0% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,447 people), which is higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tullamarine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.6% of its population born overseas and 36.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tullamarine, making up 64.1% of people, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups in Tullamarine are English (17.6%), Australian (16.6%), and Other (16.1%).

Notably, Italian ancestry is overrepresented at 11.7%, compared to the regional average of 5.2%. Maltese ancestry also exceeds the regional average at 2.9% versus 1.1%, as does Croatian ancestry at 1.4% versus 0.7%.

Tullamarine's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Tullamarine has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Tullamarine has a notably higher percentage of people aged 75-84 (9.3%) and a lower percentage of people aged 15-24 (8.9%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.1% to 9.3%, while the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 11.2% to 9.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Tullamarine's age profile will change significantly. The number of people aged 75-84 is projected to increase by 360 (57%) from 626 to 987.