Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Keilor East's population is approximately 15,576 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 503 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,073. The growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data for June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date. As of June 2024, Keilor East had an estimated population of 15,509, with an additional 86 validated new addresses contributing to the increase. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 2,842 persons per square kilometer, placing Keilor East in the upper quartile relative to other areas assessed by AreaSearch. Between Census dates, Keilor East's population grew by 3.3%, which is within 1.2 percentage points of the SA3 area growth rate of 4.5%.

Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation methods for areas not covered by the ABS data. Based on these projections, Keilor East is expected to grow by approximately 1,085 persons by 2041, reflecting a total growth rate of around 6.5% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East has seen approximately 101 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 509 homes. As of FY26 so far, 40 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of zero new residents per year per dwelling constructed was observed between FY21 and FY25. This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average value for new homes being built is $456,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. In this financial year, $1.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor East shows comparable new home approvals per capita, supporting market stability inline with regional patterns. New development consists of 37% standalone homes and 63% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 80% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 179 people per dwelling approval, Keilor East shows characteristics of a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate that Keilor East will gain approximately 1,006 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Keilor East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified eight projects potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Keilor East Station - Melbourne Airport Rail, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Valley Lake Estate, and Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Keilor East demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor East has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3%.

As of September 2025, there are 8,206 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Keilor East is at 58.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. There is particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance employs 11.9% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 14.2%.

Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, labour force increased by 1.5%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Keilor East. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keilor East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Keilor East SA2 has one of the highest incomes in Australia. The median income is $57,291 and the average income is $77,687. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures, which have a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $64,258 (median) and $87,134 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates that household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,913 weekly) and personal income is at the 40th percentile. Distribution data shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.2% of residents (4,703 people), which aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort also represents 32.8%. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 80.5% houses and 19.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 75.8% houses and 24.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor East was at 47.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. Median weekly rent was $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Keilor East's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households at 2.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Keilor East, 29.1% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.5% and graduate diplomas at 3.0%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.4% of residents holding such qualifications; advanced diplomas account for 10.2% and certificates for 18.2%. Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor East has 62 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 6,468 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average located just 204 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 924 trips across all routes, which translates to about 104 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor East's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Keilor East's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average among both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% (9,158 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.0 and 6.8% of residents respectively. 69.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.1% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 22.3% (3,478 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East has a higher cultural diversity than most other local markets, with 30.0% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor East, accounting for 69.1% of people, compared to 66.4% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups in Keilor East are Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%).

Some ethnic groups have notable differences: Croatian is overrepresented at 1.8%, Greek at 5.8%, and Maltese at 2.7%.

Keilor East's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 9.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 10.2%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of the population aged 15-24 has increased from 10.7% to 12.2%, and the percentage of those aged 85+ has risen from 3.4% to 4.5%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 65-74 has decreased from 9.8% to 8.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The 55-64 age cohort is projected to increase by 584 people, rising from 1,816 to 2,401, a growth of 32%. Notably, the combined age groups of 65+ are expected to account for 50% of total population growth. Conversely, the 25-34 and 75-84 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.