Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Keilor East's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 16,282. This figure reflects an increase of 1,209 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,073. The growth was inferred from ABS estimates showing an ERP of 15,497 in June 2024 and an additional 86 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 2,971 persons per square kilometer, placing Keilor East in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The area's growth rate of 8.0% since the Census surpassed the SA3 average of 7.3%. Overseas migration was the primary driver for this population increase.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Keilor East is projected to increase its population by approximately 1,085 persons, reflecting a growth rate of 1.8% over the 17-year period based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East has had approximately 101 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 509 homes. Up to June 2026 (FY-26), 48 approvals have been recorded. The average increase in residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is zero, indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand, offering more buyer choices while potentially supporting population growth above projections. The average construction cost of new homes is $456,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development.

In the current financial year, commercial development approvals amount to $1.1 million, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor East has similar new home approvals per capita, indicating market stability in line with regional patterns. New developments consist of 37.0% standalone homes and 63.0% attached dwellings, favouring higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (80.0%). With around 179 people per dwelling approval, Keilor East exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Keilor East is projected to gain approximately 300 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Keilor East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to impact this region. Notable ones include Keilor East Station - Melbourne Airport Rail, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Valley Lake Estate, and Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Keilor East demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor East has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3%. As of September 2025, 8,206 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was at 64.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 32.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Keilor East had a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance employed only 11.9% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 14.2%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, while labour force increased by 1.5%, resulting in a rise in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor East's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Keilor East SA2 has an income well above the national average. The median income is $61,648 and the average income stands at $76,971. In contrast, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Keilor East SA2 would be approximately $66,734 (median) and $83,321 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,913 weekly), while personal income sits at the 40th percentile. Distribution data shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.2% of residents (4,917 people). After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.5% houses and 19.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor East was 47.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keilor East's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $408.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Keilor East trail regional benchmarks, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (18.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor East has 63 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 3,314 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 204 meters from the nearest transport stop. Most residents commute outward due to Keilor East being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 90%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 32.8%, work from home, which may be partly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 473 trips per day, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor East's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Keilor East.

AreaSearch's assessment shows low mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence among younger cohorts. Approximately 9,280 people have private health cover, representing about 57% of the total population. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.0% of residents) and asthma (6.8%). A majority, 69.9%, report having no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Keilor East has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 22.6% (3,674 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Nationally, this ranks lower than the broader population.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 30.0% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor East, accounting for 69.1%, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%).

Notably, Croatian (1.8%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.7%. Greek (5.8%) and Maltese (2.7%) also have higher representations than the regional averages of 2.7% and 1.1%, respectively.

Keilor East's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 75-84 years make up 9.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 years constitute 9.8%. Since 2021, the percentage of individuals aged 15-24 has increased from 10.7% to 12.4%, and the percentage of those aged 85+ has risen from 3.4% to 4.8%. Conversely, the percentage of individuals aged 65-74 has decreased from 9.8% to 8.6%, and the percentage of those aged 25-34 has dropped from 10.9% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The number of individuals aged 85+ is projected to rise by 437 people (56%), from 784 to 1,222. Notably, the combined age groups of 65+ will account for 57% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the populations aged 25-34 and 15-24 are expected to decline.