Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Keilor East's population is around 16,282 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,209 people (8.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,073 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,497 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 86 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,971 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor East's 8.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (7.3%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,085 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 1.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East has seen around 101 new homes approved each year, totalling 509 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 57 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of only 0 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential for population growth above projections. New homes are being built at an average value of $456,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. Additionally, $1.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Keilor East shows comparable new home approvals per person, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. New development consists of 37.0% standalone homes and 63.0% attached dwellings. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 80.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 179 people per dwelling approval, Keilor East shows characteristics of a growth area.

Population forecasts indicate Keilor East will gain 300 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Keilor East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 8 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Keilor East Station - Melbourne Airport Rail, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Valley Lake Estate, and Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Keilor East ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Keilor East features a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.0%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,141 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.8% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (63.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 32.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Meanwhile, health care & social assistance has a limited presence with 11.9% employment compared to 14.2% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8% alongside a 0.5% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Keilor East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keilor East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Keilor East SA2's income level is very high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Keilor East SA2's median income among taxpayers is $61,648 and the average income stands at $76,971, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $66,734 (median) and $83,321 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,913 weekly), while personal income sits at the 40th percentile. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 30.2% of the community (4,917 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Keilor East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 80.5% houses and 19.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Keilor East was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 47.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (19.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Keilor East's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 77.7% of all households, comprising 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people matches the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Keilor East trail regional benchmarks, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (18.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 63 active transport stops operating within Keilor East, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 3,314 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 204 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 32.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 473 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor East's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Keilor East, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~9,280 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.0% and 6.8% of residents, respectively, while 69.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 22.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,674 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 30.0% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Keilor East is Christianity, which makes up 69.1% of people in Keilor East. This compares to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Keilor East are Italian, comprising 19.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.2%, Australian, comprising 16.5% of the population, and English, comprising 15.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Croatian is notably overrepresented at 1.8% of Keilor East (vs 0.7% regionally), Greek at 5.8% (vs 2.7%) and Maltese at 2.7% (vs 1.1%).

Keilor East's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 43-year median age in Keilor East is considerably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 as well as substantially exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 75 - 84 year-olds are particularly prominent (9.2%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (9.8%) than in Greater Melbourne. In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.7% to 12.4% of the population, while the 85+ cohort increased from 3.4% to 4.8%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 9.8% to 8.6% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 10.9% to 9.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise substantially, expanding by 437 people (56%) from 784 to 1,222. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 57% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.