Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Keilor East's population is 15,652 as of May 2026. This reflects a growth of 579 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,073. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 15,645 in June 2025 and an additional 87 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,856 persons per square kilometer, placing Keilor East in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. The area's growth rate of 3.8% since the census is within 1.1 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth rate of 4.9%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 88.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all migration drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Keilor East is expected to grow by 6.7% based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reaching a total of 16,707 persons.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East has seen approximately 101 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 509 homes. As of FY26, 77 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed over this period is zero. This suggests that supply meets or exceeds demand, offering more buyer choices and potential for population growth while maintaining stability with regional patterns.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $456,000, which is higher than the regional norm, indicating quality-focused development. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalling $1.1 million have been recorded, predominantly reflecting residential focus. Comparing Keilor East's new home approvals per person to Greater Melbourne shows similar figures, supporting market stability. The current development mix consists of 37.0% standalone homes and 63.0% attached dwellings, shifting from the current housing mix of 80.0% houses due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 179 people per dwelling approval, Keilor East is considered a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Keilor East is forecasted to gain 1,048 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Keilor East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely impacting the region. Notable ones include North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Valley Lake Estate, Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, and Hart Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Keilor East ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Keilor East has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 2.0% as of December 2025. There has been relative employment stability over the past year.

As of December 2025, 8141 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.8% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 63.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 32.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Keilor East shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance has limited presence at 11.9% compared to the regional average of 14.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8%, alongside a 0.5% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Keilor East. These projections estimate national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keilor East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Keilor East SA2 has a high national income level according to recent ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ending June 30, 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Keilor East is $61,648, with an average income of $76,971. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since June 30, 2023, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $67,579 and the average income around $84,376 by March 2026. Census data shows household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,913 weekly), while personal income is at the 40th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 30.2% of Keilor East residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (4,726 individuals). This aligns with broader metropolitan trends where 32.8% fall into the same income category. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor East's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.5% houses and 19.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor East stood at 47.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent was $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keilor East's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 vs Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were higher at $408 vs the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, consisting of 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Keilor East trail regional benchmarks; 29.1% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne as of the latest data from 2021. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (18.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data from 2020. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor East has 63 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 3,314 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 204 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward, with car being the primary mode of transport at 90%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 32.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 473 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor East's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Keilor East.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch, with younger cohorts showing very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover was found to be very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~8,921 people). The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.0 and 6.8% of residents respectively. 69.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 22.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,462 people), which is higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East had 30.0% of its population born overseas, higher than most local markets. 34.5% spoke a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Keilor East at 69.1%, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%). Notably, Croatian (1.8%) and Greek (5.8%) were overrepresented in Keilor East compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 2.7%, respectively. Maltese also had a higher representation at 2.7%.

Keilor East's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 8.8% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute 10.2%. In comparison, the 25-34 age group in Greater Melbourne is larger. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.7% to 12.6%, while the 85+ cohort has increased from 3.4% to 4.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has declined from 9.8% to 8.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to increase by 510 people (27%) from 1,897 to 2,408. Conversely, both the 75 to 84 and the 0 to 4 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.