Keilor East
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Keilor East's population was approximately 15,073 as of Aug 2021. By June 2024, it had increased to around 15,503, reflecting a growth of 440 people (2.9%) since the 2021 Census. This increase is attributed to an estimated resident population figure from ABS and 64 validated new addresses since the Census date. As of Aug 2025, the population is projected around 15,513. The population density ratio stands at approximately 2,830 persons per square kilometer, placing Keilor East in the upper quartile compared to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Between Aug 2021 and 2041, a population increase of just below the median for statistical areas is expected, with an anticipated growth of 1,085 persons over the period, representing a total gain of 6.9%.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,085 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a gain of 6.9% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East has seen approximately 119 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, totalling 598 approvals from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2025, with 13 recorded so far in fiscal year 2026. Over these five years, an average of 0.0 new residents per year has been arriving for each new home approved, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice while creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average value of new dwellings developed is $660,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction.

There have been $1.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor East shows comparable new home approvals per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. New development consists of 37.0% standalone homes and 63.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living that creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix of 80.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 179 people per dwelling approval, Keilor East shows characteristics of a low-density area.

Future projections indicate that Keilor East will add approximately 1,069 residents by the year 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely impacting the region. Notable projects include Valley Lake Estate, Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Plan, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, and The Watson by Kincrest. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Keilor East ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Keilor East has a well-educated workforce with professional services being prominently represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 2.4% as of June 2025, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated to be 4.0%. As of June 2025, there were 8,383 residents employed in Keilor East with an unemployment rate of 2.3%, significantly below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation in Keilor East is lower at 58.8% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The key industries employing residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Notably, the area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance employs only 11.9% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 14.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the census working population versus resident population count. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 4.0%, labour force grew by 4.4%, resulting in a rise of unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Keilor East has one of the highest incomes in Australia. The median income is $57,291 and the average income stands at $77,687. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures where the median income is $54,892 and the average income is $73,761. Based on a 10.11% growth in wages since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $63,083 (median) and $85,541 (average) as of March 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,913 weekly), while personal income sits at the 40th percentile. Income distribution shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 30.2% of residents (4,684 people). After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 80.5% houses and 19.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 70.8% houses and 30.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor East stood at 47.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $408, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Keilor East's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were above the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Keilor East's educational qualifications exceed regional benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 29.1% hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.4% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 18.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education. Keilor East's four schools have a combined enrollment of 4,402 students. The suburb demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1078). Educational institutions include two primary schools, one secondary school, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor East has 62 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 6,468 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located just 204 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 924 daily trips, which translates to approximately 104 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor East's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Keilor East's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are seen at standard levels across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover is exceptionally high, with approximately 59% of the total population (9121 people) having it. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.0% and 6.8% of residents respectively. 69.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.1% across Greater Melbourne. There are 22.3% (3464 people) of residents aged 65 and over, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East has a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 30.0% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor East, accounting for 69.1% of its population, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 66.4%. The top three ancestry groups based on parents' country of birth are Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%).

Notably, Croatian (1.8%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 2.0%, as are Greek (5.8% vs 5.0%) and Maltese (2.7% vs 2.8%).

Keilor East hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 9.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 10.2%. Between 2021 and the present, the proportion of individuals aged 15-24 has grown from 10.7% to 12.2%, while those aged 85 and above have increased from 3.4% to 4.5%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 65-74 has decreased from 9.8% to 8.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The 55-64 age cohort is projected to increase by 33%, growing from 1,808 people to 2,401. Conversely, both the 75-84 and 0-4 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.