Sunshine North

Population growth drivers in Sunshine North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Sunshine North's population was 12,047 as per the 2021 Census. By November 2025, this had increased to around 13,275, a rise of 1,228 people (10.2%). This growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 12,611 in June 2024 and the addition of 665 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 1,655 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine North's growth exceeded both its SA3 area (2.6%) and national average, making it a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Sunshine North is projected to have a population increase of 3,404 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 19.8% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Sunshine North when compared nationally

Sunshine North has seen approximately 99 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 499 homes. As of FY-26, 18 approvals have been recorded. On average, between FY-21 and FY-25, there were 0 new residents arriving per new home per year, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value for new properties over this period was $373,000.

In FY-26, Sunshine North has registered $16.4 million in commercial approvals, showing steady investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine North records 178.0% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 27.0% detached dwellings and 73.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 82.0% houses. With around 80 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine North is considered a growth area. Population forecasts indicate that Sunshine North will gain approximately 2,632 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, creating good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Population forecasts indicate Sunshine North will gain 2,632 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sunshine North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely impacting this region. Notable projects include Luma Sunshine North, River Valley, Sunshine Precinct Development, and Sunshine North Village. The following details projects likely most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Sunshine North are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Sunshine North has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 7.4% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.6%.

As of that date, 6,181 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate was higher than Greater Melbourne's at 2.8%, and workforce participation was lower at 53.9%. Employment is concentrated in manufacturing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance, with manufacturing being particularly notable at 1.9 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis.

In the year to September 2025, employment levels in Sunshine North increased by 4.6%, and labour force increased by 5.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from VIC as of 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Sunshine North SA2 had a median income of $41,781 and an average of $48,398 among taxpayers. This is lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne, in comparison, had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $46,862 (median) and $54,283 (average). Census data reveals individual incomes lag at the 6th percentile ($546 weekly), while household income performs better at the 28th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 30.6% of the community (4,062 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 28th percentile.

Sunshine North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine North's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine North stood at 39.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.8% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. The median weekly rent in Sunshine North was $341, slightly lower than Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Sunshine North's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine North features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 72.4% of all households, including 34.6% couples with children, 18.5% couples without children, and 17.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.6%, with lone person households at 22.2% and group households comprising 5.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Sunshine North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 24.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational pathways account for 23.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 8.7% and certificates 15.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 43 active transport stops in Sunshine North, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 7 individual routes, offering a total of 3,268 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 281 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 466 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Sunshine North is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Sunshine North shows better-than-average health outcomes, with lower prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to older, at-risk cohorts nationally. Private health cover is low here, at approximately 46% (~6,093 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 48.1%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.6%) and arthritis (6.0%). 74.3% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. The area has fewer seniors aged 65 and over at 16.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Sunshine North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine North has a population where 57.9% were born overseas, with 74.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 42.1%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 23.0%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 12.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Vietnamese (31.8%), Other (14.4%), and Chinese (11.3%). Notably, Maltese (5.4%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 4.6%, while Croatian (1.1%) and Polish (1.0%) are underrepresented relative to their respective regional averages of 2.2% and 1.1%.

Sunshine North's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Sunshine North has a median age of 37 years, which is equal to Greater Melbourne's figure and comparable to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 12.5% of Sunshine North's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 5-14 age cohort makes up 10.1%, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and the present day, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 12.8% to 13.7% of Sunshine North's population, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 10.9% to 10.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Sunshine North's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 age group is projected to grow by 37%, adding 606 people and reaching a total of 2,261 from its current figure of 1,654. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 3%.