Sunshine North
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Sunshine North are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Sunshine North's population was approximately 12,813 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 766 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,047. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 12,611 in June 2024 and an additional 506 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,597 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine North's growth rate of 6.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 2.2%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.3% of overall population gains during recent periods in Sunshine North.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Sunshine North is projected to experience significant population growth, with an increase of 3,404 persons expected by 2041 based on the latest numbers, reflecting a total increase of 24.1% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Sunshine North when compared nationally

Sunshine North has seen approximately 99 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 499 approvals across the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with 6 approvals so far in FY26. On average, over these five years, there have been around 0 new residents arriving per new home annually, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of new homes has been approximately $475,000.

This financial year has seen $16.4 million in commercial development approvals recorded, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine North records 178% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 27% detached dwellings and 73% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 82% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 80 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine North shows characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate Sunshine North will gain approximately 3,094 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Population forecasts indicate Sunshine North will gain 3,094 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sunshine North has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include Luma Sunshine North, River Valley, LUMA Sunshine North, and Sunshine North Village. The following details projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Sunshine North has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine North has a skilled labor force with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 7.1% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment grew by 5.5% over the year to June 2025. As of that date, 6,235 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 9.7%, which is 2.4 percentage points above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Sunshine North was 53.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in manufacturing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance.

Manufacturing employment is particularly notable, at 1.9 times the regional average. Professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 5.1% of Sunshine North's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.5%, while the labor force grew by 5.7%, leading to a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labor force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. As of September 2025, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine North's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data, released for financial year ended June 30, 2022, indicates Sunshine North's median income among taxpayers was $41,781, with an average of $48,398. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 and the average was $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% from financial year ended June 30, 2022 to March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $46,005 (median) and $53,291 (average). Census data shows individual incomes lag at the 6th percentile ($546 weekly), while household income performs better at the 29th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 30.6% of Sunshine North's community (3,920 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Sunshine North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Sunshine North was higher than Melbourne metro at 39.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (29.8%) or rented (30.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $341, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Sunshine North's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine North features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 72.4% of all households, including 34.6% that are couples with children, 18.5% consisting of couples without children, and 17.2% being single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.6%, with lone person households at 22.2% and group households comprising 5.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Sunshine North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 24.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational pathways account for 23.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 8.7% and certificates at 15.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education. Six schools operate within Sunshine North, educating approximately 976 students. The area has balanced educational opportunities, with an ICSEA score of 977. There are four primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (7.6) fall below the regional average (14.3), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates 43 active transport stops in Sunshine North, with a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 7 routes, offering a total of 3,268 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 281 meters from the nearest stop.

Services run at an average frequency of 466 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sunshine North's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Sunshine North. Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and closer to national averages among older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover rate is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~5,881 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 48.1% and the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (affecting 6.6%) and arthritis (6.0%), with 74.3% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. Sunshine North has 16.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,150 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention despite being above average.

Sunshine North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine North has a culturally diverse population, with 57.9% born overseas and 74.6% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 42.1%. Buddhism is significantly overrepresented, at 23.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 12.5%.

In terms of ancestry, Vietnamese people make up 31.8%, higher than the regional average of 15.7%. The group labeled 'Other' comprises 14.4%, lower than the regional average of 19.8%. Chinese ancestry is at 11.3%, significantly higher than the regional average of 6.3%. Notably, Maltese are overrepresented at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 4.6%, Croatian at 1.1% versus 2.2%, and Polish at 1.0% versus 1.1%.

Sunshine North's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Sunshine North has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely aligning with Australia's median age of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 12.5%, higher than the Greater Melbourne average, while the 5-14 cohort makes up 10.1%. From 2021 to present, the 35-44 age bracket has increased from 12.8% to 13.7%, but the 5-14 group has decreased from 10.9% to 10.1%. By 2041, projections indicate significant demographic changes in Sunshine North. The 55-64 age group is expected to grow by 42% (664 people), reaching 2,261 from its current figure of 1,596. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort will grow by a modest 7%, adding 48 people to its population.