Sunshine North

Population growth drivers in Sunshine North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Sunshine North's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 12,754. This figure represents a growth of 707 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,047. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 12,504 in June 2024 and an additional 683 validated new addresses after the Census date. This results in a population density of 1,590 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine North's growth rate of 5.9% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.6%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Sunshine North is projected to have a population of 16,158, reflecting an increase of 3,404 persons and a total growth rate of 24.7%.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Sunshine North when compared nationally

Sunshine North has seen approximately 99 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 499 homes. As of FY-26, 18 approvals have been recorded. On average, between FY-21 and FY-25, there were no new residents arriving per new home, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. New properties are constructed at an average value of $373,000.

In the current financial year, $16.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine North has 178.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. Recent construction consists of 27.0% detached dwellings and 73.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from the current pattern of 82.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 80 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine North is considered a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunshine North is projected to gain 3,153 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sunshine North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include River Valley, Luma Sunshine North, Sunshine North Village, and Sunshine Precinct Development. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Sunshine North are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Sunshine North has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 7.4% over the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.6%. As of September 2025, 6,181 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Sunshine North lagged at 63.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 17.5% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment was concentrated in manufacturing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Manufacturing employment levels were at 1.9 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services had only 5.1% of Sunshine North's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, labour force grew by 5.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly by industry sector. Applying these projections to Sunshine North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Sunshine North SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $44,358. The average income was $50,659. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $48,018 and the average would be around $54,838, based on an 8.25% growth in wages since financial year 2023. Census data shows individual incomes are at the 6th percentile ($546 weekly), while household incomes are at the 28th percentile. The income band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 30.6% of Sunshine North's community (3,902 individuals). This is similar to other regions in the area where 32.8% fall within this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.0% of income remaining after expenses, ranking at the 28th percentile.

Sunshine North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine North's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This is compared to Melbourne metro's structure of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine North stood at 39.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.8% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Sunshine North was $341, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sunshine North's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine North features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 72.4% of all households, including 34.6% couples with children, 18.5% couples without children, and 17.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.6%, with lone person households at 22.2% and group households making up 5.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Sunshine North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 24.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational pathways account for 23.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 8.7% and certificates at 15.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine North has 43 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that collectively facilitate 1559 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 281 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 84%, while trains account for 9%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 17.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 222 trips per day, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sunshine North's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Sunshine North residents. Mortality rates and health conditions align with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are seen across all ages.

Private health cover is low at 46%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. The most common conditions are asthma (6.6%) and arthritis (6%). 74.3% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Seniors make up 17.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes are above average, matching national rankings.

Sunshine North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine North has a population where 57.9% were born overseas and 74.6% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 42.1%. Buddhism is significantly higher in Sunshine North at 23.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestral groups are Vietnamese (31.8%), Other (14.4%), and Chinese (11.3%). Notably, Maltese (5.4%) Croatian (1.1%) and Polish (1.0%) populations are higher than the regional averages.

Sunshine North's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Sunshine North has a median age of 37, which is equal to Greater Melbourne's figure and comparable to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group constitutes 12.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 5-14 cohort stands at 10.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 12.8% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 17.0% to 15.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Sunshine North's age structure. The 55-64 group is projected to grow by 40%, adding 648 people and reaching 2,261 from the current 1,612. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 8%, adding 56 people.