Sunshine North
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Sunshine North are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Sunshine North's population is approximately 13,275. This figure represents a 10.2% increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,047. The growth from June 2024 to November 2025 was inferred from an estimated resident population of 12,611 and 665 validated new addresses. This results in a population density ratio of 1,655 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine North's growth rate since the 2021 census (10.2%) surpassed both the SA3 area (2.6%) and the national average, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Sunshine North is projected to experience significant population growth, increasing by 3,404 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 19.8% over the 17-year period based on the latest population numbers.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Sunshine North when compared nationally

Sunshine North has seen approximately 99 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 499 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. On average, between FY-21 and FY-25, there were 0 new residents arriving per year for each new home approved, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new properties over this period was $373,000.

In FY-26, $16.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine North records 178.0% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 27.0% detached dwellings and 73.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 82.0% houses. With around 80 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine North is classified as a growth area. Population forecasts indicate that Sunshine North will gain 2,632 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Population forecasts indicate Sunshine North will gain 2,632 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sunshine North has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that may impact this area. Notable projects include Luma Sunshine North, River Valley, Sunshine Precinct Development, and Sunshine North Village. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunshine North has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine North has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.1%.

Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 5.5%. In June 2025, 6,235 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Sunshine North is lower at 53.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in manufacturing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance.

Manufacturing employment is particularly notable, being 1.9 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented with only 5.1% of Sunshine North's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.5% while labour force increased by 5.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Sunshine North's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Sunshine North's median income among taxpayers is $41,781, with an average of $48,398. This is lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne has a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $46,862 (median) and $54,283 (average). Census data reveals individual incomes lag at the 6th percentile ($546 weekly), while household income is at the 29th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 30.6% of Sunshine North's community (4,062 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Sunshine North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine North's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). This compares to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine North was higher at 39.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.8% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, above Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. Median weekly rent in Sunshine North was $341, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Sunshine North's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine North features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 72.4% of all households, including 34.6% couples with children, 18.5% couples without children, and 17.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.6%, with lone person households at 22.2% and group households comprising 5.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Sunshine North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 24.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational pathways account for 23.7% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 8.7% and certificates at 15.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education. Six schools operate within Sunshine North, educating approximately 976 students, and the area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 977) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes four primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents is 7.6, below the regional average of 14.3, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 43 active stops operating in Sunshine North, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 7 routes, collectively facilitating 3,268 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically situated 281 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 466 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sunshine North's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows strong health metrics in Sunshine North. Prevalence of common conditions is low among the general population, nearing national averages among older cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 46%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 48.1% and the national average of 55.3%.

Common medical conditions are asthma (6.6%) and arthritis (6.0%), with 74.3% reporting no ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. The area has 16.8% residents aged 65 and over (2,227 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to being above average.

Sunshine North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine North has one of the highest percentages of overseas-born residents in Australia, with 57.9%. A majority of its population, 74.6%, speaks a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunshine North, making up 42.1% of the population.

Buddhism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 23.0% versus the regional average of 12.5%. In terms of ancestry, Vietnamese residents make up 31.8%, which is significantly higher than the regional average of 15.7%. The 'Other' category comprises 14.4%, lower than the regional average of 19.8%. Chinese ancestry is also notably high at 11.3% compared to the regional average of 6.3%. There are notable divergences in other ethnic groups: Maltese residents make up 5.4% versus 4.6% regionally, Croatian residents comprise 1.1% versus 2.2%, and Polish residents account for 1.0% versus 1.1%.

Sunshine North's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Sunshine North has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and remaining close to Australia's median age of 38. The 55-64 age group is strongly represented at 12.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 10.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 12.8% to 13.7% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 10.9% to 10.1%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Sunshine North's age structure. The 55-64 group is projected to grow by 37%, adding 606 people and reaching a total of 2,261 from the current figure of 1,654. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 3%.