Ardeer - Albion

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ardeer - Albion reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ardeer-Albion's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 8,323 people. This figure reflects a growth of 821 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,502. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates: 7,908 residents in June 2024 and an additional 116 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 1,813 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Ardeer-Albion's growth rate of 10.9% since 2021 exceeds both its SA3 area (2.6%) and the national average, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.3% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ardeer-Albion is forecasted to experience a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas, with an expected growth of 1,785 persons. This reflects a total increase of 16.5% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ardeer - Albion according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Albion-Ardeer has seen approximately 47 dwellings granted development approval annually. Between fiscal years FY21 and FY25, a total of 238 homes were approved, with an additional 20 approved in FY26 to date. The population has declined recently, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average cost of $253,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $15.1 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Albion-Ardeer has 105.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers, although recent construction activity has eased. New developments consist of 22.0% standalone homes and 78.0% attached dwellings, shifting away from the current housing pattern of 64.0% houses, likely due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 225 people per dwelling approval, Albion-Ardeer exhibits a developing market. Future projections estimate an addition of 1,370 residents by 2041, with current development appearing well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Future projections show Ardeer - Albion adding 1,370 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Ardeer - Albion has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Vietnamese Museum Australia, Sunshine Superhub, Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Mental Health and Wellbeing Centre, and River Valley. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Ardeer - Albion recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Albion-Ardeer has an educated workforce with varied sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 7.3% in September 2025, with estimated employment growth of 4.8% over the past year. As of that date, 4,320 residents were employed while the local unemployment rate was 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 24.8% of residents worked from home in September 2025. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction sectors. Albion-Ardeer has a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level.

The professional & technical sector has limited presence at 6.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, while labour force grew by 5.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Albion-Ardeer's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Ardeer-Albion SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $50,646 and an average of $57,767 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $54,824 (median) and $62,533 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ardeer-Albion SA2, between the 25th and 29th percentiles. Distribution data shows the largest segment comprises 30.0% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,496 residents), consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Ardeer - Albion displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ardeer-Albion's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 63.7% houses and 36.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ardeer-Albion was at 28%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented dwellings at 42.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ardeer-Albion was $320, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ardeer-Albion's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ardeer - Albion features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.1% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 34.6% and group households comprising 6.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Ardeer - Albion exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 31.2%, surpassing the SA3 area average of 23.9%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, held by 29.2% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (17.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.9% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.6% in tertiary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ardeer - Albion has 34 active public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are covered by nine different routes that collectively facilitate 2,887 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically situated 208 meters from their nearest transport stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 75%, while train usage stands at 15%. On average, there are 0.9 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 412 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ardeer - Albion is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ardeer-Albion faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is found to be very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,011 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues impacting 8.1% of residents and arthritis impacting 7.3%, while 72.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 17.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,431 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Ardeer - Albion is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ardeer-Albion, as of the latest data available (2016), has a population where 51.3% speak a language other than English at home and 50.1% were born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, making up 44.1% of the population. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 6.9% versus 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (21.9%), English (15.1%), and Australian (13.2%). Notably, Polish (2.1%), Vietnamese (8.1%), and Maltese (3.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Ardeer - Albion's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ardeer - Albion's median age is nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ardeer - Albion has a higher concentration of 25-34 year-olds at 19.2%, but fewer 5-14 year-olds at 8.8%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 4.8% to 6.4%, while those aged 35-44 increased from 17.0% to 18.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 21.4% to 19.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ardeer - Albion's age profile will evolve significantly. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 40%, adding 298 residents to reach 1,048. Meanwhile, the 5-14 age group is expected to contract by 5 residents.