Ardeer - Albion

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ardeer - Albion reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ardeer - Albion's population is around 8,314 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 812 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,502 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,908 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 100 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,811 persons per square kilometer. Ardeer - Albion's population growth of 10.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.5%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 82.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median population growth, with the area expected to grow by 1,785 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 16.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ardeer - Albion according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Albion, known as Ardeer-Albion, has seen approximately 47 dwellings granted development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 238 homes received approvals, with an additional 20 approved in FY26 so far. Despite a recent population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction value of new properties is $253,000, which is below regional levels, offering more affordable housing options for buyers. This year, there have been $15.1 million worth of commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ardeer-Albion has 105% more construction activity per capita, providing greater choice for buyers, although recent construction activity has slowed down. New developments consist of 22% standalone homes and 78% attached dwellings, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of 64% houses. This trend towards denser development caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 225 people per dwelling approval, Ardeer-Albion is showing signs of a developing market.

Future projections estimate that Ardeer-Albion will add approximately 1,379 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current development appears well-suited to meet future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Ardeer - Albion has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 projects likely to affect this region. Notable projects include Vietnamese Museum Australia, Sunshine Superhub, Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Mental Health and Wellbeing Centre, River Valley. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Ardeer - Albion recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ardeer-Albion has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 7.3% in September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.8% over the past year. As of this date, 4,320 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 24.8% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. The area has a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have limited presence at 6.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, labour force by 5.4%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded lower growth rates: employment at 3.0%, labour force at 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ardeer-Albion's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Ardeer - Albion SA2 is $50,646, with an average of $57,767, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below the national average, which contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $54,824 (median) and $62,533 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ardeer - Albion, between the 25th and 29th percentiles. Distribution data shows that the largest segment comprises 30.0% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,494 residents), which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Ardeer - Albion displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Ardeer-Albion, as per the latest Census, consisted of 63.7% houses and 36.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ardeer-Albion stood at 28.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented ones at 42.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ardeer-Albion was $320, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ardeer-Albion's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ardeer - Albion features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 59.1% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 34.6% and group households comprising 6.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Ardeer - Albion exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 31.2% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA3 area average of 23.9%. This indicates a strong emphasis on higher education in the community. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%).

Vocational skills are also prominent, with 29.2% of residents aged 15+ holding credentials such as advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (17.7%). Educational participation is high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.7% in primary, 6.6% in tertiary, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ardeer-Albion has 34 active public transport stops, all bus services. These are covered by nine routes offering 2,887 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 208 meters. Most commuters travel outwards; cars dominate at 75%, with 15% using trains. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.9, below the regional norm. In 2021 Census data (possibly influenced by COVID-19), 24.8% of residents worked from home.

Daily service frequency averages 412 trips across all routes, translating to about 84 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Ardeer - Albion is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ardeer faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is found to be very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,007 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues (impacting 8.1% of residents) and arthritis (affecting 7.3%), while 72.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,383 people), which is higher than the 14.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Ardeer - Albion is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ardeer-Albion, as of 2016 Census data, has a culturally diverse population with 51.3% speaking a language other than English at home and 50.1% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 44.1% of the population. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 6.9% of Ardeer-Albion's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (21.9%), English (15.1%), and Australian (13.2%). Polish (2.1%), Vietnamese (8.1%), and Maltese (3.7%) ethnicities are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Ardeer - Albion's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ardeer-Albion's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ardeer-Albion has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (20.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.9%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 17.0% to 18.1%, while the 75 to 84 cohort has grown from 4.8% to 5.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 21.4% to 20.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ardeer-Albion's age profile will change significantly. The 55 to 64 cohort is projected to grow by 41%, adding 306 residents to reach 1,048. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 group is expected to decrease by 15 residents.