Ardeer - Albion

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ardeer - Albion reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ardeer - Albion's population is around 8,323 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 821 people (10.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,502 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,908 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 116 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,813 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ardeer - Albion's 10.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.6%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 82.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 1,785 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 16.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ardeer - Albion according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ardeer - Albion has experienced around 47 dwellings receiving development approval per year, with 238 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 23 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $253,000—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. There have also been $15.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Ardeer - Albion has 105.0% more construction activity (per person), creating greater choice for buyers, though construction activity has eased recently. New development consists of 22.0% standalone homes and 78.0% attached dwellings. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 64.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 225 people per dwelling approval, Ardeer - Albion shows a developing market.

Future projections show Ardeer - Albion adding 1,370 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Ardeer - Albion has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 20 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Vietnamese Museum Australia, Sunshine Superhub and Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Mental Health and Wellbeing Centre, and River Valley, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Ardeer - Albion recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ardeer - Albion possesses a well-educated workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 7.4%, and 3.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,312 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 2.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (69.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 24.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 6.4% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.4% while the labour force increased by 4.2%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ardeer - Albion. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ardeer - Albion's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Ardeer - Albion SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $50,646 and an average of $57,767 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,824 (median) and $62,533 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ardeer - Albion, between the 25th and 29th percentiles. Distribution data shows the largest segment comprises 30.0% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,496 residents), consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Ardeer - Albion displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Ardeer - Albion, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 63.7% houses and 36.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ardeer - Albion slightly lagged that of Melbourne metro, at 28.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.9%) or rented (42.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,700, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $320, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Ardeer - Albion's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ardeer - Albion features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 59.1% of all households, comprising 22.2% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 34.6% and group households comprising 6.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Ardeer - Albion exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (31.2% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the SA3 area average of 23.9%, reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 19.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 29.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (17.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.6% in tertiary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 34 active transport stops operating within Ardeer - Albion, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 9 individual routes, collectively providing 2,887 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 208 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 75%, with 15% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 24.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 412 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ardeer - Albion is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ardeer - Albion faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,011 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 8.1% and 7.3% of residents, respectively, while 72.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 17.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,431 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Ardeer - Albion is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ardeer - Albion is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 51.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 50.1% born overseas. The main religion in Ardeer - Albion is Christianity, which makes up 44.1% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 6.9% of the population, compared to 4.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ardeer - Albion are Other, comprising 21.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, English, comprising 15.1% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 20.1%, and Australian, comprising 13.2% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Polish is notably overrepresented at 2.1% of Ardeer - Albion (vs 0.8% regionally), Vietnamese at 8.1% (vs 1.9%) and Maltese at 3.7% (vs 1.1%).

Ardeer - Albion's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 36 years, Ardeer - Albion's median age is nearly matching the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is similarly modestly under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Ardeer - Albion has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (19.2%) but fewer 5 - 14 year-olds (8.8%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 6.4% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 17.0% to 18.1%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 21.4% to 19.2%. Demographic modeling suggests Ardeer - Albion's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 55 to 64 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 40%, adding 298 residents to reach 1,048. In contrast, the 5 to 14 group will contract by 5 residents.