Sunshine North

Population growth drivers in Sunshine North are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Sunshine North is around 13,275. This figure reflects a growth of 1,228 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,047. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 12,611 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 665 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,655 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine North's growth rate of 10.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (2.6%) and the national average. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the suburb.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Sunshine North is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas. By 2041, the suburb's population is expected to expand by 3,404 persons, recording a gain of 19.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Sunshine North when compared nationally

Sunshine North has seen approximately 99 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 499 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents arriving per new home in Sunshine North is zero over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $475,000.

In FY-26, $16.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine North records 178.0% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 27.0% detached dwellings and 73.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 82.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 80 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine North is considered a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunshine North is forecasted to gain 2,632 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Sunshine North has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could impact this area. Notable ones are Luma Sunshine North, River Valley, Sunshine Precinct Development, and Sunshine North Village. The following details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Sunshine North has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine North has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 7.1% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.5%.

As of June 2025, 6,235 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher at 2.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation in Sunshine North lags at 53.9%, versus Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in manufacturing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance, with manufacturing particularly notable at 1.9 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.5%, labour force by 5.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data released in financial year 2022 shows Sunshine North's median taxpayer income was $41,781 with an average of $48,398. This is lower than national averages. Comparing to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine North's median is $54,892 and average is $73,761. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $46,862 and average $54,283 based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%. Census data indicates individual incomes are at the 6th percentile ($546 weekly) but household incomes perform better at the 28th percentile. The income band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 30.6% of Sunshine North's community (4,062 individuals), similar to the regional pattern where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 84.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 28th percentile.

Sunshine North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine North's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine North was at 39.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.8% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,700. Median weekly rent was $341, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Sunshine North's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine North features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 72.4% of all households, including 34.6% couples with children, 18.5% couples without children, and 17.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.6%, with lone person households at 22.2% and group households comprising 5.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational outcomes in Sunshine North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 24.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational pathways account for 23.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 8.7% and certificates at 15.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education. There are six schools operating within Sunshine North, educating approximately 976 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 977) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes four primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (7.3) are below the regional average (14.2), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine North has 43 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 3,268 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 281 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 466 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Sunshine North is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Sunshine North shows better-than-average health outcomes with fewer common health conditions among its general population compared to both younger and older at-risk cohorts nationally. Approximately 46% of Sunshine North's total population (~6,117 people) has private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 48.1%, but higher than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.6%) and arthritis (6.0%), with 74.3% of residents reporting no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.5%.

As of 2019, 16.9% of Sunshine North's residents are aged 65 or over (2,243 people), lower than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne, but health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to being above average.

Sunshine North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine North has one of the highest percentages of overseas-born residents in Australia, with 57.9%. Over three-quarters of its population, 74.6%, speaks a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunshine North, accounting for 42.1% of people.

Buddhism, however, is significantly more prevalent in Sunshine North compared to Greater Melbourne, with 23.0% versus 12.5%. The top three ancestry groups are Vietnamese (31.8%), Other (14.4%), and Chinese (11.3%). Notably, Maltese (5.4%) and Croatian (1.1%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 4.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Polish representation is also notable at 1.0%.

Sunshine North's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Sunshine North has a median age of 37 years, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely aligning with Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 12.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 35-44 cohort is at 13.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 12.8% to 13.7% of Sunshine North's population. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 10.9% to 10.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Sunshine North's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is projected to grow by 36%, adding 600 people and reaching a total of 2,260 from its current figure of 1,659. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 3%, increasing by 23 people.