Sunshine

An assessment of population growth drivers in Sunshine reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Sunshine's population was around 10,164 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 719 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,445. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 10,151 in June 2025 and an additional 175 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,148 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine's growth rate of 7.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 2.1%, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 88.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For future projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas. For uncovered areas, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, a significant population increase is forecasted in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with Sunshine expected to expand by 3,172 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 31.1% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sunshine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Sunshine has averaged approximately 49 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 248 homes were approved, with an additional 59 approved in FY26 so far. The average construction value of these new homes is $337,000.

In terms of commercial development, Sunshine has recorded $48.4 million in approvals during the current financial year, demonstrating strong momentum in this sector. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine exhibits 69.0% more construction activity per capita, providing greater choice for buyers. The new developments primarily consist of 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings, indicating a shift towards denser development that caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This trend differs from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 69.0% houses. With approximately 271 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine's developing market is expected to gain around 3,159 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current development rates persist, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Population forecasts indicate Sunshine will gain 3,159 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Sunshine has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified twelve projects likely to impact the local area, with key ones being Sunshine Superhub and Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Priority Precinct Vision 2050, Western Rail Plan, and Next Generation Trams. The following details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Sunshine shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Sunshine has an educated workforce with diverse industry representation. Its unemployment rate was 7.3% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.9%. As of December 2025, 5,558 residents were employed, while its unemployment rate was 2.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Workforce participation was equal to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 27.2% of residents worked from home. Leading industries included health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Professional & technical employed only 7.4% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The resident-to-worker ratio was 0.8, indicating substantial employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, labour force grew by 4.2%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a similar unemployment increase. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years. These projections are illustrative and do not account for localised population changes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Sunshine SA2 has a median taxpayer income of $57,357 and an average of $65,504 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages but higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By March 2026, estimated median income would be approximately $62,875 and average income $71,805, assuming a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Sunshine's incomes rank modestly, between the 29th and 39th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant in Sunshine, with 31.1% of residents (3,161 people), similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sunshine, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Sunshine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sunshine's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.4% houses and 30.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine was at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented ones at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sunshine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.8% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 21.7% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households making up 7.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Sunshine aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Sunshine has a higher proportion of residents with university qualifications than the broader area, with 35.4% compared to 23.9%. This educational advantage is driven by bachelor degrees (22.6%), postgraduate qualifications (9.8%), and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational pathways account for 24.2%, comprising advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (14.8%). Educational participation in Sunshine is notably high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.2% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine has 100 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 31 individual routes, collectively facilitating 14,067 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing 131 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward. The dominant mode of transport is car at 72%, followed by train at 16% and bus at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 27.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 2,009 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 140 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Sunshine are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunshine's health indicators show below-average results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is at approximately 52% of the total population (~5,275 people), which lags behind the average SA2 area's rate of 56.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.1 and 7.0% of residents respectively. 74.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. Sunshine has 13.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,353 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine's population is culturally diverse, with 51.3% born overseas and 56.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunshine, comprising 40.1% of its population. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 11.1% versus the regional average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.3%), English (14.7%), and Australian (13.6%). Notably, Vietnamese (13.5%) and Maltese (1.4%) are overrepresented in Sunshine compared to regional averages of 1.9% and 1.1%, respectively. Additionally, Macedonian is slightly overrepresented at 0.8%.

Sunshine's population is younger than the national pattern

Sunshine's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 20.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage but lower than the national average of 14.6%. The 5-14 age cohort represents 10.2% in Sunshine, which is less prevalent compared to Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has increased from 6.8% to 7.9%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 21.0% to 20.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate that the 55-64 age cohort will rise significantly, with an increase of 584 people (57%) from 1,030 to 1,615.