Sunshine

An assessment of population growth drivers in Sunshine reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Sunshine's population is around 10,143 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 698 people (7.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,445 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,104 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 186 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,144 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine's 7.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.6%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 89.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 3,487 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 34.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sunshine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Sunshine has averaged around 49 new dwelling approvals per year, with 248 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 19 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $337,000. Additionally, $48.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Sunshine has 69.0% more construction activity (per person), creating greater choice for buyers. New development consists of 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 69.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 271 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine shows a developing market.

Population forecasts indicate Sunshine will gain 3,448 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Sunshine has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Sunshine Superhub and Albion Station Upgrade, the Sunshine Priority Precinct Vision 2050, the Western Rail Plan, and Next Generation Trams, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Sunshine shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Sunshine possesses a well-educated workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 7.3%, and 3.9% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,558 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 2.5% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is on par with Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 27.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 7.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of 0.8 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates substantial local employment opportunities.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9% and the labour force increased by 4.2%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Sunshine. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Sunshine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Sunshine SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $57,357 and an average of $65,504 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is slightly lower than average on a national basis, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $62,089 (median) and $70,908 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Sunshine, between the 29th and 39th percentiles. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 31.1% of residents (3,154 people), mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Sunshine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Sunshine, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 69.4% houses and 30.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Sunshine was slightly lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 27.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.9%) or rented (42.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,842, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Sunshine's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 66.8% of all households, comprising 28.9% couples with children, 21.7% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households comprising 7.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Sunshine aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Sunshine significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 35.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 23.9% in the SA3 area. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational pathways account for 24.2% of qualifications among those aged 15+; advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (14.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.2% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 100 active transport stops operating within Sunshine, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 31 individual routes, collectively providing 14,067 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 131 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 72%, with 16% by train and 6% by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A high 27.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 2,009 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 140 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Sunshine are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Sunshine, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags that of the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~5,264 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.1 and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 74.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 13.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,394 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 51.3% of its population born overseas and 56.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Sunshine is Christianity, which makes up 40.1% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 11.1% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Sunshine are Other, comprising 20.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, English, comprising 14.7% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 20.1%, and Australian, comprising 13.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Vietnamese is notably overrepresented at 13.5% of Sunshine (vs 1.9% regionally), Maltese at 1.4% (vs 1.1%) and Macedonian at 0.8% (vs 0.7%).

Sunshine's population is younger than the national pattern

Sunshine's median age of 35 years stands slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 as well as somewhat younger than the 38-year national average. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 19.1% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 75 - 84 cohort is less prevalent at 3.7%. In the period since 2021, the 65 to 74 age group has grown from 6.8% to 8.2% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 21.0% to 19.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Sunshine. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, expanding by 624 people (60%) from 1,041 to 1,666.