Sunshine
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Sunshine reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Sunshine's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, stands at 10,117 as of Aug 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 672 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,445. The increase is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 10,104 in June 2024 and an additional 182 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 2,138 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine's growth rate of 7.1% since the 2021 Census exceeds that of the SA3 area at 2.2%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.1% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with Sunshine expected to expand by 3,487 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 34.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sunshine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Sunshine has averaged approximately 73 new dwelling approvals per year. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 366 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, and 2 so far in FY26. The population has been declining recently, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $441,000, consistent with regional patterns.

There have also been $48.4 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine records 69.0% more development activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. Recent construction comprises 24.0% standalone homes and 76.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 69.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 271 people per dwelling approval, suggesting room for growth. Looking ahead, Sunshine is expected to grow by 3,474 residents through to 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunshine has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified a total of 17 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Melbourne Airport Rail - Sunshine Station Superhub, Next Generation Trams, Sunshine Precinct Development & Civic Centre, and Sunshine Precinct Vision 2050. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Sunshine shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Sunshine has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 7.3% in the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 5.5%. As of June 2025, 5,603 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was 60.5%, below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing had particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Professional & technical employed only 7.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of 0.8 workers per resident indicated substantial local employment opportunities. In the past year, employment increased by 5.5%, while labour force grew by 5.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising 0.5 percentage points. By Sep-25, state-level data showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. State employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 estimated national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Sunshine's median taxpayer income was $54,025 and average income was $62,581 in financial year 2022, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data. This is slightly lower than the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 in the same period. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Sunshine would be approximately $59,487 (median) and $68,908 (average) as of March 2025. In the 2021 Census, Sunshine's household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly, between the 30th and 39th percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominated with 31.1% of residents (3,146 people), mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupied this bracket. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Sunshine, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Sunshine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sunshine's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.4% houses and 30.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine was at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented ones at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,700. Weekly rent median was $340, similar to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Sunshine's mortgage repayments were lower ($1,842 vs $1,863), and rents were less ($340 vs $375).

Sunshine features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 21.7% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households making up 7.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Sunshine aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Sunshine's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks, with 35.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications compared to the SA3 area average of 23.9%. This significant educational advantage indicates strong preparation for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational pathways account for 24.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 14.8%.

Educational participation is high in Sunshine, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.2% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education. There are six schools operating within Sunshine, educating approximately 901 students. These schools offer balanced educational opportunities, typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 1011). Educational provision is split between three primary and three secondary institutions. The school places per 100 residents in Sunshine (8.9) are lower than the regional average (14.3), suggesting some students may attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine has 100 active public transport stops, serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 36 individual routes, collectively facilitating 23,696 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 131 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 3,385 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 236 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sunshine's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows Sunshine's health metrics perform well. Common conditions' prevalence is low among its general population but nears national averages for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover rate is approximately 51%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 48.1%. The most common conditions are asthma (7.1%) and mental health issues (7.0%). 74.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 73.5% in Greater Melbourne. Sunshine has 13.2% seniors (1,337 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Senior health outcomes require more attention despite being above average.

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine, one of Australia's most culturally diverse areas, has 56.6% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 51.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunshine, making up 40.1% of the population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 11.1% of Sunshine's population identifying as Buddhist.

The top three ancestry groups in Sunshine are Other at 20.3%, English at 14.7%, and Australian at 13.6%. Some ethnic groups show significant differences in representation: Vietnamese is overrepresented at 13.5%, Maltese at 1.4%, and Croatian at 1.0% compared to regional figures.

Sunshine's population is younger than the national pattern

Sunshine's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 25-34 years has a strong representation in Sunshine at 19.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage. However, the 75-84 age cohort is less prevalent in Sunshine at 3.8%. This concentration of the 25-34 age group is well above the national average of 14.5%. From 2021 onwards, the population aged 5 to 14 years has grown from 10.0% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age cohort has declined from 21.0% to 19.8%. Population forecasts for Sunshine in the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to rise significantly, with an increase of 635 people (62%) from 1,030 to 1,666.