Kingsville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kingsville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Kingsville's population is estimated at around 4,145, reflecting an increase of 225 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 5.7% rise from the previous population count of 3,920. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,129, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of 13 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 5,678 persons per square kilometer, placing Kingsville within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting with weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Kingsville is expected to experience above median population growth nationally, with an estimated increase of 718 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 16.9% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kingsville according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Kingsville has experienced around 16 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 81 homes were approved, with another three approved so far in FY-26.

Despite a population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $588,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kingsville has significantly less development activity, 66.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although development activity has picked up in recent periods. New development consists of 5.0% standalone homes and 95.0% townhouses or apartments, a trend that provides accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift reflects the reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Currently, Kingsville has around 114 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Kingsville is expected to grow by approximately 702 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kingsville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include the West Footscray Neighbourhood Plan, 590-596 Barkly Street Development, West Footscray Station Upgrade, and Bradmill Yarraville. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Kingsville shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Kingsville's workforce is highly educated with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 3.5% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Employment grew by an estimated 4.1% in the past year.

As of December 2025, 2,714 residents were employed with a participation rate of 83.6%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Half (50.2%) of Kingsville residents worked from home according to Census responses, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. The area shows strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

However, construction is under-represented at 6.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.1%, labour force by 4.5%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne's employment grew by 2.4% and labour force by 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Kingsville's employment could increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, assuming consistent sectoral distribution.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Kingsville's median income is $55,124 and average income is $66,748. This is lower than Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $60,427 (median) and $73,169 (average), considering a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year ending June 2023. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, Kingsville's incomes rank between the 77th and 91st percentiles nationally. Most locals (26.7%, or 1,106 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. In Kingsville, 37% of households have high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, indicating strong consumer spending despite high housing costs consuming 16.6% of income. The area's disposable income ranks at the 76th percentile and its SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Kingsville displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Kingsville's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 61.4% houses and 38.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kingsville was at 20.2%, with the rest either mortgaged (41.9%) or rented (37.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kingsville was $2,370, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Kingsville was $355, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Kingsville's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents lower at $375.

Kingsville features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.2% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.8%, with lone person households at 31.4% and group households comprising 4.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Kingsville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Kingsville's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 49.5% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and the SA4 region's 32.0%. This high level of educational attainment positions Kingsville favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 30.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.1%).

Vocational pathways account for 23.7% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 12.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 6.0% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kingsville has nine active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1,421 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing within 150 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward from Kingsville. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 70% of residents, while trains are used by 16%, and walking by 4%. On average, there are 0.8 vehicles per dwelling in Kingsville, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 50.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 203 trips per day, equating to approximately 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Kingsville are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kingsville's health indicators show below-average results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is at approximately 53% of the total population (~2,206 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 10.2% and 10.2% of residents respectively. 68.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 12.0% of residents aged 65 and over (497 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kingsville was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kingsville was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 28.0% of its population born overseas and 22.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The dominant religion in Kingsville is Christianity, comprising 34.2% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.2% of Kingsville's population versus 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (23.6%), Australian (20.2%), and Irish (10.7%). Some other ethnic groups show notable differences: Macedonian is overrepresented at 1.1% in Kingsville compared to 0.7% regionally, Polish at 1.0% versus 0.8%, and Vietnamese at 2.0% versus 1.9%.

Kingsville's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Kingsville has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and remaining close to Australia's 38 years. The 35-44 age group makes up 20.5% of Kingsville's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage but lower than the national average of 14.3%. The 15-24 cohort stands at 8.7%, lower than both Greater Melbourne and Australia. From 2021 to present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 7.2% to 8.7%, while the 65-74 group rose from 4.9% to 6.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort decreased from 13.6% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Kingsville's age structure. The 55-64 group is projected to grow by 36 people, reaching 509 from 373. Meanwhile, the 5-14 group is expected to decrease by 13 residents.