Kingsville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kingsville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Kingsville is around 4,144, reflecting an increase of 224 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of 5.7%. The resident population estimate of 4,137 by AreaSearch, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validated new addresses, supports this figure. Kingsville's population density of 5,676 persons per square kilometer places it in the top 10% nationally, indicating high demand for land. Overseas migration drove recent population growth, contributing approximately 73%.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. These projections indicate an above median population growth for Kingsville, with an expected increase of 769 persons by 2041, representing an 18.4% gain over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kingsville according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Kingsville had around 16 dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years FY21-FY25, approximately 81 homes were approved, with 3 more in FY26 to date.

Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $588,000, targeting the premium market segment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kingsville has significantly less development activity (65.0% below regional average per person), which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent periods have seen increased development activity. New developments consist of 5.0% standalone homes and 95.0% townhouses or apartments, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands.

Kingsville has around 114 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Kingsville will grow by 762 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Kingsville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Six projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include West Footscray Neighbourhood Plan, 590-596 Barkly Street Development, West Footscray Station Upgrade, and New Footscray Hospital.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Kingsville shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Kingsville has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.5% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%.

This figure is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2,721 residents were in work. The unemployment rate was 1.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was high at 82.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%.

According to Census responses, 50.2% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. Kingsville showed strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. However, construction was under-represented at 6.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.1%, while labour force increased by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Kingsville. National employment was forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kingsville's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 30, 2023 shows that median income in Kingsville is $55,124, lower than the national average of $66,748. Average income in Kingsville is $66,748, compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 30, 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $59,672 (median) and $72,255 (average). From the Census conducted in August 2021, Kingsville's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 77th and 91st percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort in Kingsville is 26.7% of locals earning $1,500 - 2,999 per week, consistent with metropolitan trends at 32.8%. Economic strength is evident with 37.0% of households earning over $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile. Kingsville's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Kingsville displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Kingsville's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 61.4% houses and 38.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kingsville was at 20.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (41.9%) or rented (37.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kingsville was $2,370, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Kingsville was $355, lower than Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Kingsville features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.2% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 22.5% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.8%, with lone person households at 31.4% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Kingsville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Kingsville's educational attainment exceeds national and regional averages: 49.5% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and the SA4 region's 32.0%. The area benefits from a strong knowledge-based workforce, led by bachelor degrees (30.2%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.1%). Vocational pathways account for 23.7%, with advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 12.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.0% in primary, 6.0% in secondary, and 6.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 6.0% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kingsville has nine active public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are covered by five different routes that together facilitate 1,421 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport options is rated as excellent, with residents typically living within 150 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 70% of residents, while trains are used by 16%, and walking by 4%. On average, there are 0.8 vehicles per dwelling in Kingsville, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 50.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 203 trips per day, equating to approximately 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kingsville is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kingsville faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~2,205 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 10.2 and 10.2% of residents respectively. 68.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 12.3% of residents aged 65 and over (509 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kingsville was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kingsville's cultural diversity was notable, with 28.0% of its population born overseas and 22.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kingsville, accounting for 34.2% of the population. However, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.2% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (23.6%), Australian (20.2%), and Irish (10.7%). Some ethnic groups showed notable variations: Macedonian at 1.1% in Kingsville versus 0.7% regionally, Polish at 1.0% versus 0.8%, and Vietnamese at 2.0% versus 1.9%.

Kingsville's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Kingsville has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and remaining comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 35-44 age group is strongly represented at 20.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent at 8.9%. This concentration of the 35-44 age group is well above the national figure of 14.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 7.2% to 8.9%, while the 65-74 cohort increased from 4.9% to 6.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 13.6% to 12.2%, and the 0-4 group dropped from 7.3% to 6.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Kingsville's age structure. The 55-64 group is projected to grow by 39 people (from 389 to 542), while the 5-14 group will decrease by 10 residents.