South Kingsville

Population growth drivers in South Kingsville are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the South Kingsville statistical area as of November 2025 is estimated at around 2,535. This reflects an increase of 379 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,156. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,256 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 93 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,960 persons per square kilometer, which places South Kingsville in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 17.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (9.7%) and the state average. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in South Kingsville.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for statistical areas across the nation, with South Kingsville expected to expand by 464 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 7.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within South Kingsville when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, South Kingsville has experienced around 37 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated 189 homes. As of July 2026, seven approvals have been recorded in this financial year. Over these five years, on average, 0.3 new residents per year arrived per new home built.

This suggests that supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction cost of new homes was $420,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In this financial year, there have been $6.1 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, South Kingsville shows 85.0% higher building activity per person, creating greater choice for buyers, although construction activity has eased recently. This is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. New development consists of 10.0% standalone homes and 90.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 42.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 94 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Looking ahead, South Kingsville is expected to grow by 191 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

South Kingsville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely impacting this region. Notable projects are Newport Village, South Kingsville Place, West Gate Tunnel Project, and Better Places Spotswood & South Kingsville.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in South Kingsville rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

South Kingsville has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented, unemployment at 2.2%, and estimated employment growth of 5.2% over the past year (AreaSearch data). As of September 2025, 1,564 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is high at 75.5%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Finance & insurance shows strong specialization (1.6 times regional level), while manufacturing has limited presence (4.5% vs regional 7.2%). Local employment opportunities appear limited, with Census data showing fewer working residents than locals.

In the year to September 2025, employment grew by 5.2%, labour force by 5.8%, raising unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne's growth of 3.0% (employment), 3.3% (labour force), and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data (VIC, to 25-Nov) shows employment grew by 1.13%, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts (May-25) project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South Kingsville's employment mix suggests local growth should be around 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation not accounting for localized population changes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

South Kingsville's median income among taxpayers was $75,269 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $92,487 during the same period. These figures are significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.25% increase from financial year 2023 indicate that South Kingsville's median income could reach approximately $81,479 and the average income could be around $100,117. According to the 2021 Census, South Kingsville's incomes rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes between the 81st and 93rd percentiles. The largest segment of residents, comprising 29.6%, earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which is also reflective of the regional pattern where 32.8% fall within this range. Economic strength in South Kingsville is evident with 37.4% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Despite high housing costs consuming 15.7% of income, disposable income remains at the 80th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

South Kingsville displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

South Kingsville's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 41.5% houses and 58.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 68.7% houses and 31.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Kingsville stood at 22.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.7% and rented ones at 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,313, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,167. Weekly rent median was $381, similar to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, South Kingsville's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,313 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $381 versus the national figure of $375.

South Kingsville features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.8% of all households, including 32.0% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 8.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 34.2%, with lone person households at 31.3% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

South Kingsville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

South Kingsville's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 42.0% have university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4%. Within South Kingsville's SA4 region, this figure stands at 32.0%. The area's most common university qualification is the Bachelor degree (28.9%), followed by postgraduate degrees (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%).

Vocational credentials are also prevalent among residents aged 15+, with a total of 28.4%. Advanced diplomas account for 12.6% while certificates make up 15.8%. Educational participation is high, with 28.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 5.5% in tertiary education, and 5.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in South Kingsville shows that there are 16 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 535 weekly passenger trips provided collectively by these routes. The accessibility to transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 129 meters from the nearest transport stop.

The service frequency averages 76 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

South Kingsville's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

South Kingsville's health outcomes data shows excellent results, with younger age groups having a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 63% of South Kingsville's total population (1,603 people) has private health cover, which is higher than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 8.3% and 7.7% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 75.2%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.7%. South Kingsville has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 10.2% (258 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.8%.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in South Kingsville was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

South Kingsville had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.5% of its population born overseas and 23.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in South Kingsville, making up 41.0% of its population. Islam was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 4.8% versus 5.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (21.5%), Australian (20.7%), and Other (10.2%). Notably, Serbian (1.1%) and Hungarian (0.5%) were overrepresented in South Kingsville compared to regional averages of 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively. Welsh was also slightly overrepresented at 0.8% versus the regional average of 0.5%.

South Kingsville's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

South Kingsville's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and remaining comparable to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 35-44 age group is strongly represented at 21.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent at 9.3%. This concentration in the 35-44 age group is significantly above the national average of 14.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 8.0% to 9.3%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has risen from 5.2% to 6.3%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 age group has decreased from 8.9% to 8.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in South Kingsville's age structure. Notably, the 55 to 64 group is projected to grow by 29%, reaching 341 people from a previous total of 263. Meanwhile, both the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.