South Kingsville

Population growth drivers in South Kingsville are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of South Kingsville's population is estimated at around 2,535 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 379 people (17.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,156 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,256 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 97 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,960 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. South Kingsville's 17.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%), along with the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the suburb expected to expand by 461 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 7.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within South Kingsville when compared nationally

South Kingsville has seen approximately 37 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 189 homes. As of FY-26, 7 approvals have been recorded. On average, South Kingsville has experienced a growth rate of 0.3 new residents per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that supply is meeting or surpassing demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction cost value of new homes in South Kingsville is $420,000, slightly higher than the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In FY-26, there have been $6.1 million worth of commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, South Kingsville has shown 84.0% higher building activity per person, indicating robust developer interest in the area. New development consists of 10.0% standalone homes and 90.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the current housing composition (42.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. South Kingsville has approximately 94 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, South Kingsville is expected to grow by 195 residents through to 2041.

With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

South Kingsville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to impact the region: Newport Village, South Kingsville Place, West Gate Tunnel Project, and Better Places Spotswood & South Kingsville. These are detailed below for their potential significance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in South Kingsville rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

South Kingsville has a highly educated workforce with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate was 2.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.3%. As of September 2025, 1,565 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was high at 85.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A significant 45.1% of residents worked from home, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area shows strong specialization in finance & insurance, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Manufacturing's presence is limited at 4.5% compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the difference between working population and resident population counts. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3%, while labour force grew by 5.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment growth was 3.0%, labour force expansion was 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South Kingsville's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

South Kingsville's median income among taxpayers was $75,269 and average income was $92,487 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for the financial year 2023. This compares with Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth suggest median income will be approximately $81,479 and average income $100,117. The 2021 Census shows South Kingsville's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 81st and 93rd percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 29.6% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (750 residents). Economic strength is evident with 37.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 15.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 80th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

South Kingsville displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As of the latest Census, South Kingsville's dwelling structure comprised 41.5% houses and 58.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Kingsville stood at 22.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.7% and rented dwellings at 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,313, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in South Kingsville was $381, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, South Kingsville's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

South Kingsville features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.8% of all households, including 32.0% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 8.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.2%, with lone person households at 31.3% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

South Kingsville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

South Kingsville's educational attainment is notably higher than broader averages. Among residents aged 15+, 42.0% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and the SA4 region's 32.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 28.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.4% of residents holding them – advanced diplomas account for 12.6% and certificates for 15.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.5% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary, 5.5% in tertiary, and 5.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Kingsville has 16 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by one route in total, offering 535 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 129 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 88% of residents, while trains are used by 6%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 45.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 76 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in South Kingsville is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

South Kingsville shows superior health outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 63% of South Kingsville's total population (1,603 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 8.3 and 7.7% of residents respectively. A total of 75.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The under-65 population exhibits better-than-average health outcomes. South Kingsville has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 10.8% (273 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%, but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in South Kingsville was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

South Kingsville had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.5% of its population born overseas and 23.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in South Kingsville, accounting for 41.0% of its population. Islam was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 4.8% versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (21.5%), Australian (20.7%), and Other (10.2%). Notably, Serbian (1.1%) was significantly more represented in South Kingsville than regionally (0.4%), as were Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.3%) and Welsh (0.8% vs 0.4%).

South Kingsville's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

South Kingsville's median age is 37 years, matching Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38 years. The age group of 35-44 years is strongly represented in South Kingsville at 21.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne but lower for the 15-24 cohort which stands at 9.5%. This concentration of the 35-44 age group is notably above the national average of 14.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 8.0% to 9.5%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has risen from 5.2% to 6.7%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 17.2% to 15.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in South Kingsville's age structure. Notably, the 55 to 64 age group is projected to grow by 32%, adding 83 people and reaching a total of 342 from its current figure of 258. Meanwhile, both the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.