Sunshine (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Sunshine reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Sunshine (Vic.) as of Feb 2026 is around 10,143. This reflects an increase of 698 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,445 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 10,104 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 186 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,144 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 7.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.6%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the suburb, with an expected expansion of 3,487 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 34.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sunshine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

From AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Sunshine, approximately 49 dwelling approvals were granted annually over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 248 homes. As of FY26, 18 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $441,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In FY26, Sunshine has registered $48.4 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine exhibits 69.0% more development activity per capita, offering greater choice for buyers. New developments consist of 23.0% standalone homes and 77.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 69.0% houses. This trend may be due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. Sunshine's population growth rate is around 236 people per approval.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunshine is projected to add 3,448 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunshine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twelve projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are Sunshine Superhub and Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Priority Precinct Vision 2050, Western Rail Plan, and Next Generation Trams. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunshine has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate is 7.4%, with estimated employment growth of 5.1% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025, there are 5,556 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is equal to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A high 27.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have limited presence at 7.4%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There are 0.8 workers for each resident, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1% and labour force grew by 5.5%, resulting in a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.0%, labour force expanded by 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Sunshine. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Sunshine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes that does not consider localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Sunshine is below the national average. The median income is $54,025 and the average income is $62,581. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Sunshine would be approximately $58,482 (median) and $67,744 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Sunshine rank modestly, between the 29th and 39th percentiles. Income brackets show that the predominant cohort spans 31.1% of locals (3,154 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort also represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sunshine, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Sunshine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sunshine's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 69.4% houses and 30.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine stood at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented dwellings at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Sunshine was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sunshine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 21.7% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households comprising 7.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Sunshine aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Sunshine's educational attainment exceeds broader standards, with 35.4% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications compared to 23.9% in the SA3 area. This educational advantage is significant and positions the area well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational pathways account for 24.2% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas making up 9.4% and certificates 14.8%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.2% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine has 100 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 31 individual routes that facilitate 14,067 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 131 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. The dominant mode of transport is car at 72%, followed by train at 16% and bus at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 27.2%, work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 2,009 trips per day, equating to approximately 140 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sunshine's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data for Sunshine residents shows positive outcomes overall. Mortality rates and health conditions are mostly in line with national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a fairly standard level. Approximately 52% of the total population (~5,233 people) have private health cover, compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions are asthma (7.1%) and mental health issues (7.0%). About 74.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 13.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,389 people), lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Seniors' health outcomes are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine has a culturally diverse population, with 51.3% born overseas and 56.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Sunshine, making up 40.1% of its population. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, comprising 11.1% of Sunshine's population.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (20.3%), English (14.7%), and Australian (13.6%). Notably, Vietnamese (13.5%) and Maltese (1.4%) populations in Sunshine are higher than regional averages.

Sunshine's population is younger than the national pattern

Sunshine's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group has strong representation at 19.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 75-84 cohort is less prevalent at 3.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group grew from 6.8% to 8.2% of the population. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 21.0% to 19.1%. By 2041, forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Sunshine. The 55-64 age cohort is projected to rise significantly, increasing by 621 people (59%) from 1,044 to 1,666.