Sunshine (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Sunshine reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Sunshine (Vic.) has an estimated population of around 10,164 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 719 people (7.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,445 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,151 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 175 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,148 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine's 7.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.1%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast for the suburb of Sunshine (Vic.), with an expected expansion by 3,169 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 31.1% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sunshine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Sunshine has received around 49 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years up to FY26. This totals an estimated 248 homes. So far in FY26, 59 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average value of new homes is $441,000, moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. This financial year has seen $48.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine has 69.0% more development activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. New developments consist of 23.0% standalone homes and 77.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 69.0% houses. This trend may be due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. Sunshine reflects a transitioning market with around 236 people per approval.

Future projections estimate Sunshine will add 3,156 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunshine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twelve projects expected to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Sunshine Superhub and Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Priority Precinct Vision 2050, Western Rail Plan, and Next Generation Trams. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Sunshine has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine's workforce is well-educated with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 7.3% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.9%. As of December 2025, Sunshine had 5,558 residents employed, an unemployment rate of 10%, and workforce participation matching Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

Census data showed 27.2% worked from home, considering Covid-19 impacts. Employment was concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, retail trade, with strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (1.5 times regional level). Professional & technical employment was limited at 7.4%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.8.

Between December 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, labour force by 4.2%, unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 2.4%, labour force expanded by 2.8%, unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Sunshine is below the national average. The median income is $54,025 and the average income stands at $62,581. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $59,222 (median) and $68,601 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Sunshine, between the 29th and 39th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the predominant cohort spans 31.1% of locals (3,161 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Sunshine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sunshine's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.4% houses and 30.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine was at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented dwellings at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sunshine's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.8% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 21.7% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households making up 7.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Sunshine aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Sunshine's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Specifically, 35.4% of its residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to the SA3 area's 23.9%. This significant educational advantage positions Sunshine favourably for opportunities that require a high level of knowledge. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%).

Vocational pathways account for 24.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 9.4% and certificates comprising 14.8%. Educational participation is notably high in Sunshine, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.2% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine has 100 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 31 individual routes, facilitating 14,067 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 131 meters to the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most Sunshine residents commute outward using various modes: car (72%), train (16%), and bus (6%). Vehicle ownership stands at 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 27.2% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 2,009 trips per day, equating to approximately 140 weekly trips per stop.

Sunshine's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data for Sunshine indicates positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a standard level.

Private health cover is relatively low, affecting approximately 52% of the total population (~5,244 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.1%) and mental health issues (7.0%), with 74.4% of residents declaring no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population shows better than average health outcomes. Sunshine has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 13.5% (1,372 people), compared to 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, ranking broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine has a culturally diverse population, with 51.3% born overseas and 56.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Sunshine, comprising 40.1%. Buddhism is overrepresented, making up 11.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.3%), English (14.7%), and Australian (13.6%). Notably, Vietnamese (13.5%) and Maltese (1.4%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Sunshine's population is younger than the national pattern

Sunshine's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group makes up 20.1% of Sunshine's population, higher than Greater Melbourne but lower than the national average of 14.6%. The 5-14 age group is less prevalent in Sunshine at 10.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 6.8% to 7.9%, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 21.0% to 20.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant growth in the 55-64 age cohort, with an increase of 581 people (56%) from 1,036 to 1,618.