Sunshine (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Sunshine reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

By Nov 2025, Sunshine's population is estimated at around 10,135, a 7.3% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 9,445 people. This growth reflects an inferred resident population of 10,104 based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, along with 189 validated new addresses since the Census date. The suburb's population density is 2,142 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine's growth exceeded that of its SA3 area (2.6%), making it a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains in recent periods. For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for non-covered areas, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods.

By 2041, Sunshine is forecast to increase by 3,487 persons, reflecting a total increase of 34.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sunshine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Sunshine shows an average of around 49 dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling approximately 248 homes. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction cost value for new homes is $441,000, aligning with regional patterns.

This year, Sunshine has registered $48.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine has 69.0% more development activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. New developments consist of 23.0% standalone homes and 77.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 69.0% houses. This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 236 people per approval, Sunshine reflects a transitioning market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Sunshine is projected to add 3,456 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunshine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twelve projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Sunshine Superhub and Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Priority Precinct Vision 2050, Western Rail Plan, and Next Generation Trams. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunshine has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine's workforce is well-educated with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 7.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.5%.

As of June 2025, there were 5,603 residents employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was lower at 60.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 7.4%, compared to the regional level of 10.1%. As of the Census, there are 0.8 workers for each resident, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.5% while the labour force grew by 5.7%, resulting in a slight increase in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that Sunshine's employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Sunshine is $54,025 and average income is $62,581. This is below Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimated median income in Sunshine would be approximately $60,594 and average income would be around $70,191, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data ranks incomes in Sunshine modestly, between the 29th and 39th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort in Sunshine is 31.1%, representing 3,151 people earning $1,500 - 2,999, similar to Melbourne's 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Sunshine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sunshine's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.4% houses and 30.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine was at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented ones at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Sunshine was $1,842, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,700. The median weekly rent in Sunshine was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Sunshine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.8% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 21.7% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households making up 7.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Sunshine aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Sunshine has a higher proportion of residents with university qualifications than the broader area, with 35.4% compared to 23.9%. This is driven by bachelor degrees (22.6%), postgraduate qualifications (9.8%), and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational pathways account for 24.2%, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (14.8%). Educational participation is high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (8.4%), tertiary education (7.2%), and secondary education (5.9%). There are six schools operating within Sunshine, educating approximately 901 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1011) with balanced educational opportunities. School places per 100 residents (8.9) is below the regional average (14.2), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine has 100 active public transport stops. These include both train and bus services. There are 36 different routes operating in total.

Each week, these routes facilitate 23,696 passenger trips. The average distance residents live from the nearest stop is 131 meters. On a daily basis, there are an average of 3,385 transport trips across all routes. This results in approximately 236 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sunshine's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance in Sunshine. Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and closer to national averages for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover rate is approximately 52% of the total population (~5,229 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 48.1%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.1%) and mental health issues (7.0%). A majority, 74.4%, report being free from medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. Sunshine has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 13.2% (1,337 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to being above average.

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine, one of the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, has 51.3% of its population born overseas and 56.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Sunshine with 40.1%. Buddhism is notably higher than the regional average, comprising 11.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 12.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.3%), English (14.7%), and Australian (13.6%). Some ethnic groups show significant variation: Vietnamese at 13.5% in Sunshine versus 15.7% regionally, Maltese at 1.4% compared to 4.6%, and Croatian at 1.0% against the regional average of 2.2%.

Sunshine's population is younger than the national pattern

Sunshine's median age was 35 years in 2021, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group made up 19.8% of Sunshine's population compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 5-14 cohort was less prevalent at 10.7%. This 25-34 concentration was above the national average of 14.5%. Between 2021 and the present, the 65-74 age group has increased from 6.8% to 7.5%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 21.0% to 19.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate that the 55-64 age cohort is projected to rise significantly, with an increase of 632 people (61%) from 1,033 to 1,666.