Sunshine (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Sunshine reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of Sunshine (Vic.) as of Feb 2026 is around 10,143. This reflects an increase of 698 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,445. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 10,104 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,144 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine's growth rate of 7.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 2.6%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends forecast a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas. By 2041, Sunshine's population is expected to expand by 3,489 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 34.0% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sunshine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Sunshine shows an average of around 49 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 248 homes. As of FY-26, 19 approvals have been recorded. Despite a falling population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value of new homes being built is $441,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating an emphasis on quality construction.

In FY-26, Sunshine has registered approximately $48.4 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine has 69.0% more development activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. The new developments consist of 23.0% standalone homes and 77.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 69.0% houses. This trend may be due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Currently, Sunshine reflects a transitioning market with around 236 people per approval. Future projections estimate Sunshine will add approximately 3,450 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunshine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twelve projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Sunshine Superhub and Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Priority Precinct Vision 2050, Western Rail Plan, and Next Generation Trams. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunshine has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 7.3% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.9%. As of December 2025, 5,558 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was equal to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 27.2% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have a limited presence at 7.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There are 0.8 workers for each resident, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, and labour force increased by 4.2%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 2.4%, labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Sunshine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these estimates are illustrative and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Sunshine, median income is $54,025 and average income is $62,581. In Greater Melbourne, median income is $57,688 and average income is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Sunshine as of September 2025 are approximately $58,482 (median) and $67,744 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Sunshine's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 29th and 39th percentiles. The predominant income cohort in Sunshine is 31.1% of locals (3,154 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999, similar to Melbourne's 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Sunshine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sunshine's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.4% houses and 30.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine stood at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented ones at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Sunshine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.8% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 21.7% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households comprising 7.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Sunshine aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Sunshine's educational attainment exceeds broader averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 35.4% possess university qualifications, compared to the SA3 area average of 23.9%. The most common qualification is a bachelor degree, held by 22.6% of residents. Postgraduate qualifications are held by 9.8%, and graduate diplomas by 3.0%.

Vocational pathways account for 24.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 14.8%. Educational participation is high, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 7.2% in tertiary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine has 100 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 31 routes, collectively facilitating 14,067 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 131 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 72%, followed by train at 16% and bus at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 27.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 2,009 trips per day, equating to approximately 140 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sunshine's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Sunshine's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a standard level.

Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 52% (~5,233 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma (7.1%) and mental health issues (7.0%), while 74.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Under-65 population has better than average health outcomes. The area has 14.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,420 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes are above average and align with national rankings for the general population.

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine has a population where 51.3% were born overseas, and 56.6% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunshine, with 40.1% of people identifying as such. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 11.1% of Sunshine's population versus the regional average of 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is the largest group at 20.3%, higher than the regional average of 14.6%. English ancestry comprises 14.7%, lower than the regional average of 20.1%, and Australian ancestry accounts for 13.6%. Notably, Vietnamese (13.5% vs regional 1.9%), Maltese (1.4% vs regional 1.1%), and Croatian (1.0% vs regional 0.7%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Sunshine compared to the Greater Melbourne region.

Sunshine's population is younger than the national pattern

Sunshine's median age was 35 years in the given period, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 25-34 years showed strong representation at 19.1% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 5-14 age cohort was less prevalent at 10.7%. Between 2021 and the given period, the 65-74 age group grew from 6.8% to 8.2% of Sunshine's population. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 21.0% to 19.1%. Population forecasts for Sunshine in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the 55-64 age cohort projected to rise significantly by 630 people (61%), increasing from 1,034 to 1,665 individuals.