Sunshine (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Sunshine reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, Sunshine (Vic.) SA2's estimated population is around 10,143. This reflects an increase of 698 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,445. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 10,104 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024 and an additional 189 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,144 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine's 7.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 2.5%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 89.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting employing weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends forecast a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with Sunshine (Vic.) SA2 expected to expand by 3,487 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 34.0% in total over these 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Sunshine according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Sunshine has had approximately 49 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 248 homes. As of FY-26, 18 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value for new homes is $441,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction.

This financial year has seen $48.4 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine has 69.0% more development activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. New developments consist of 23.0% standalone homes and 77.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 69.0% houses. This trend may be due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. Sunshine reflects a transitioning market with around 236 people per approval. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Sunshine to add 3,448 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply might not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunshine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Sunshine Superhub and Albion Station Upgrade, Sunshine Priority Precinct Vision 2050, Western Rail Plan, and Next Generation Trams. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunshine has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine's workforce is well-educated with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 7.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.1%, as per AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 5,556 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was at 60.5%, below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 7.4%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.8, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1% while labour force grew by 5.5%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and labour force expand by 3.3%. State-level data from November 25, 2025 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13%, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May 2025 indicate total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, although this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that median income in Sunshine is $54,025 and average income is $62,581. This is lower than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median income in Sunshine as of September 2025 would be approximately $58,482 and average income would be around $67,744. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Sunshine rank modestly, between the 29th and 39th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort in Sunshine is 31.1% of locals earning between $1,500 - 2,999, similar to metropolitan Melbourne where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sunshine, with only 82.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Sunshine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Sunshine's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.4% houses and 30.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine was at 27.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (29.9%) or rented (42.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, above Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. Median weekly rent in Sunshine was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Sunshine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 21.7% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households making up 7.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Sunshine aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Sunshine's residents aged 15 and above have a higher proportion with university qualifications than the broader SA3 area benchmark. Specifically, 35.4% of Sunshine's residents hold such qualifications, compared to 23.9%. This educational advantage is significant and positions the area favourably for opportunities that require knowledge-based skills. Among these residents, 22.6% have completed bachelor degrees, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 9.8%, and graduate diplomas at 3.0%.

Vocational pathways are also prevalent among Sunshine's residents aged 15 and above, with 24.2% of them holding such qualifications. This includes advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (14.8%). Educational participation is notably high in Sunshine, with 31.3% of its residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (8.4%), tertiary education (7.2%), and secondary education (5.9%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine has 100 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are covered by 31 individual routes, collectively facilitating 14,067 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 131 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 2,009 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 140 weekly trips per stop.

Sunshine's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Sunshine. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and closer to the nation's average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 52% (~5,233 people) have private health cover, compared to 48.5% in Greater Melbourne. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.1%) and mental health issues (7%). About 74.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.5% in Greater Melbourne. Sunshine has 13.2% (1,338 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to being above average.

Sunshine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine has a population that is highly diverse culturally, with 51.3% born overseas and 56.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunshine, making up 40.1% of its population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 11.1% of Sunshine's population.

The top three ancestry groups in Sunshine are Other (20.3%), English (14.7%), and Australian (13.6%). Notably, Vietnamese people are overrepresented at 13.5%, while Maltese and Croatian populations are underrepresented at 1.4% and 1.0% respectively, compared to regional figures.

Sunshine's population is younger than the national pattern

Sunshine's median age was 35 years in the given period, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group had strong representation at 19.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 5-14 cohort was less prevalent at 10.7%. This 25-34 concentration was well above the national average of 14.5%. From 2021 onwards, the 65-74 age group grew from 6.8% to 7.5% of Sunshine's population. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 21.0% to 19.8%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Sunshine. The 55-64 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, expanding by 631 people (61%) from 1,034 to 1,666.