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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Cairnlea has an estimated 10,035 residents. That puts 2,276 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of Aug 2026, Cairnlea has an estimated population of approximately 10,035 according to AreaSearch evaluations. This represents a reduction of 3 residents (0.0%) compared to the 10,038 individuals counted during the 2021 Census. Such a shift is calculated using June 2025 ABS estimated resident population data alongside 59 validated new addresses registered following the Census. With 2,275 persons per square kilometer, the locality's population density sits above the broader national benchmark evaluated by AreaSearch. In addition, the locality's -0.0% post-census growth rate tracks within 2.2 percentage points of the surrounding SA3 region (2.2%), highlighting competitive demographic momentum.
Overseas migration served as the primary growth contributor, accounting for roughly 71.1% of recent population additions. Projections for each SA2 region are drawn from ABS/Geoscience Australia figures published in 2024 using 2022 as the base period, while uncovered SA2 localities utilize 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections adjusted through weighted aggregation from LGA down to SA2 boundaries. Age cohort expansion rates derived from these aggregations are likewise applied across every territory between 2032 and 2041. Based on expected demographic trends, the suburb is projected to achieve population growth exceeding the national median, expanding by 1,758 persons by 2041 according to recent annual ERP statistics, which equates to an overall gain of 17.5% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
89 new dwellings have been approved in Cairnlea over the past five years, an average of 17 a year. That is 1.8 approvals per 1,000 residents. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Over the preceding 5 financial years, residential approvals in Cairnlea totaled 89 homes, averaging roughly 17 new dwellings annually. Given the recent population downturn, this volume of building approvals has remained proportionally sufficient to benefit prospective purchasers, with typical new residential construction costs averaging $469,000. Additionally, commercial approvals throughout this financial year reached $19.6 million, demonstrating consistent investment in commercial assets. Per capita dwelling approvals in Cairnlea reach roughly two-thirds of the Greater Melbourne level and place the suburb in the 32nd percentile nationwide; this constrains buyer availability and reinforces demand for existing properties, even with building momentum accelerating in recent years.
This below-average national volume reflects local market maturity along with potential planning restrictions. Approved construction consists of 72.0% standalone houses and 28.0% semi-detached or attached residences, reinforcing the traditional family-centric suburban layout favored by buyers seeking space. This contrasts with the current built environment of 89.0% standalone houses, signaling both a diminishing supply of greenfield or infill parcels and growing demand for diverse, cost-effective residential options. A ratio of roughly 966 people per dwelling approval further underscores the mature state of the local housing sector. Long-term demographic forecasts from AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimates project Cairnlea will add 1,758 residents by 2041. Should current construction rates persist, new housing supply could fall short of resident expansion, heightening buyer rivalry and placing upward pressure on property values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Cairnlea
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Cairnlea. A further 92 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $16.8 billion. 13 are already under construction and 23 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Public works, strategic developments, and municipal planning decisions play a substantial role in shaping community performance. AreaSearch has tracked a total of 21 major initiatives positioned to influence the surrounding district. Prominent projects include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park, with notable undertakings summarized below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Cairnlea Estate Final Stage
The final stage of the Cairnlea urban renewal project by Development Victoria on a 41-hectare site at the former Albion Explosives Factory. The Minister for Planning and EPBC Act approvals were secured in early 2026. The project will deliver approximately 500 new homes, including a mix of lots, townhouses, and affordable housing options, alongside new green open spaces, tree-lined streets, and a playground. Essential site remediation works are currently underway, with the first phase expected to be complete by mid-2026.Homes and land lots are anticipated to be available for sale in 2027, with construction expected to commence late 2027 to 2028.
Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment
Residential development of the former Kangan Batman TAFE campus site on Military Road. Joint venture between Development Victoria and Frasers Property Australia to deliver 135 contemporary townhouses. The site was purchased after the TAFE campus closed in 2005.
Sunshine Health, Wellbeing and Education Precinct
The Sunshine Health, Wellbeing and Education Precinct is a 67 hectare health, education and employment precinct in St Albans centred around Sunshine Hospital, Joan Kirner Womens and Childrens Hospital, Ginifer Station and surrounding uses. The Victorian Planning Authority has prepared a draft plan with Brimbank City Council and Victorian Government agencies to guide land use change, new jobs, improved streetscapes and environmental upgrades. The precinct is a key western Melbourne growth area supported by major transport investment and future employment, housing and liveability improvements.
Amora Estate Cairnlea
Townhouse estate by Truesource featuring approximately 70 homes in a walkable location opposite Cairnlea Shopping Centre. Product mix includes 3 and 4 bedroom, double garage homes with contemporary finishes, engineered oak style flooring, and stone benchtops.
Deer Park Estate
A 1 billion AUD, 66-hectare industrial and logistics estate delivering up to 340,000sqm of prime warehouse space. Construction is underway with Asahi Beverages as the first anchor tenant. The precinct targets a 5 Star Green Star rating and features highbay warehousing, data centre potential, and strategic access to major transport routes.
Station Street Commercial Precinct
Development application for a mixed-use commercial precinct along Station Street including retail spaces, cafes, professional services, and upper-level office accommodation. The project aims to create a vibrant local commercial centre.
Ballarat Road Maintenance and Upgrade
Comprehensive road maintenance and upgrade project along Ballarat Road improving traffic flow, safety, and infrastructure resilience. Includes pavement renewal, drainage improvements, and intersection upgrades in the Deer Park area to support growing traffic demands.
LUMA Sunshine North
LUMA is a masterplanned community being developed on the 4.7-hectare former City West Water site. The project features approximately 300 sustainable townhomes (1-4 bedrooms) and the 3,600 square metre Willowbark Park. All homes are designed with a minimum 7-star NatHERS rating and include solar PV systems with battery storage.
5,536 residents of Cairnlea are employed, from a labour force of 5,812. Unemployment sits at 4.7%, with participation at 69.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.9% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 7,615, about 76% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Cairnlea features a qualified resident workforce distributed across diverse industries, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.7% alongside a 2.0% increase in estimated employment over the preceding year. Employed locals numbered 5,536 as of March 2026, while local unemployment aligns closely with the 4.8% figure for Greater Melbourne and labor participation mirrors the broader metropolitan benchmark of 70.1%. Census records show 21.3% of workers worked from home, a metric potentially shaped by Covid-19 lockdown restrictions. Local workers are predominantly employed across retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. The suburb demonstrates pronounced specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, capturing an employment concentration 2.0 times the broader regional benchmark.
Conversely, professional & technical sectors are underrepresented, engaging 5.9% of local workers relative to 10.1% across the region. Comparisons between the resident labor base and the Census daytime working population indicate that this residential district provides limited internal job openings. AreaSearch evaluations of ABS and SALM metrics indicate that over the 12-month period, local employment expanded by 2.0% while the labor pool grew by 1.9%, preserving consistent unemployment levels. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded a 2.1% lift in employment, a 2.3% rise in the labor force, and a 0.2 percentage point uptick in unemployment. National outlooks from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide additional context regarding future workforce requirements across Cairnlea. These five- and ten-year projections have been applied across local industry distributions to model employment trajectories. Nationally, employment is projected to grow 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with distinct differences across sectors. Applying these industry weightings to Cairnlea's sectoral composition indicates local employment expansions of 5.9% across five years and 12.5% across ten years (noting this illustrative weighting model does not incorporate localized population forecasts).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Cairnlea is $2,062 a week (about $107,000 a year), with median personal income at $658 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $47,269 a year against an average of $54,835. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Aggregated ATO tax statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 place personal earnings in the Cairnlea SA2 below national benchmarks. Cairnlea SA2 taxpayers recorded a median income of $47,269 and an average income of $54,835, sitting below the Greater Melbourne figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Accounting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, updated estimates as of March 2026 stand at roughly $51,816 for median income and $60,110 for average income. The 2021 Census showed individual earnings trailing in the 20th percentile ($658 weekly), whereas household earnings performed stronger in the 69th percentile.
Around 37.6% of residents (3,773 individuals) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, aligning with the 32.8% regional proportion. Housing costs claim 13.7% of income, while solid collective earnings place residents in the 73rd percentile for disposable income.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Cairnlea had 2,808 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 89% detached houses and 4% apartments. 51% are owned with a mortgage, 16% rented and 34% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,883 a month. Rent absorbs 19.4% of household income here and mortgage repayments 21.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, Cairnlea's residential stock was composed of 88.6% separate houses and 11.4% other dwelling types such as semi-detached homes and apartments, differing from the 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings recorded across metropolitan Melbourne. Outright home ownership reached 33.7%, surpassing metropolitan Melbourne, while 50.8% of properties were mortgaged and 15.5% were occupied by renters. The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,883 and median weekly rental payment of $400 compared to metropolitan Melbourne averages of $2,000 and $390 respectively. When compared nationally, Cairnlea exceeds the Australian median mortgage repayment of $1,863 as well as the national median rent of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Cairnlea counted 2,808 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 3.4 people each. 53% are couples with children, more than in 96% of areas nationally, against 18% couples without children. 11% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute the vast majority of local living arrangements at 87.1% of all households, consisting of couples with children (52.7%), couples without children (17.8%), and single parent households (15.3%). Non-family living situations make up the remaining 12.9%, comprising single-person households at 10.7% and group households at 2.1%. Cairnlea features an average household size of 3.4 occupants, notably higher than the Greater Melbourne standard of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
26.3% of adults in Cairnlea hold a university qualification, including 20.7% with a bachelor degree and 4.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 14.6% hold a vocational qualification. 3 schools serve the area, with 820 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,026 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Attainment of higher education degrees presents a local development focus, as the 26.3% rate of tertiary qualifications sits considerably beneath the 37.0% recorded across Greater Melbourne. Among residents aged 15+, bachelor degrees constitute 20.7%, postgraduate credentials account for 4.0%, and graduate diplomas represent 1.6%. Technical and vocational streams represent 24.0% of formal credentials, comprising advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (14.6%). Participation in study is robust, with 32.9% of the local population actively enrolled in an educational institution. This proportion comprises 10.3% attending primary school, 10.3% in secondary school, and 6.7% undertaking tertiary programs.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Cairnlea reaches 15 stops on 4 routes, timetabled for about 1,000 services a week. The typical home sits about 360 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.9 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Network analysis identifies 15 operating public transit stops across Cairnlea, offering bus connections. These stops are served by 4 dedicated routes that deliver a combined 1,017 weekly passenger trips. Transit access is favorable, with locals situated an average of 361 meters from their closest boarding point. Because the locality is primarily residential, outward travel dominates commuter flows, with 88% using private vehicles and 7% utilizing rail. Private vehicle availability stands at an average of 1.9 per residence, exceeding the regional benchmark, while 21.3% of workers worked from home according to 2021 Census data collected under pandemic conditions.
Across all transit lines, trip frequencies average 145 departures daily, representing roughly 67 weekly departures at each individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
77.5% of residents in Cairnlea report no long-term health condition. 6.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 46.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.9 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators across Cairnlea demonstrate positive outcomes in AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality and chronic disease data, with both younger and older demographics showing reduced incidence of common ailments. Private health insurance coverage is limited, held by approximately 47% of residents (~4,696 people), trailing the Greater Melbourne level of 56.7% and the nationwide average of 55.7%. Asthma and diabetes constitute the primary diagnosed chronic ailments in the community, recorded among 7.4 and 5.7% of residents respectively, whereas 77.5% reported no long-term medical conditions compared to 72.6% regionally. The working-age population exhibits strong overall health with minimal chronic conditions.
Older residents aged 65 and over make up 14.2% of the population (1,424 people) and achieve above-average health results consistent with nationwide trends.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
53.2% of Cairnlea residents were born overseas and 71.8% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 96% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are Vietnamese (26.7%) and Chinese (11.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity is pronounced in Cairnlea, where 53.2% of the community was born overseas and 71.8% use a language other than English in their domestic environment. Christianity represents the most common faith, practiced by 42.3% of residents. Buddhism shows substantial local prominence, accounting for 20.5% of the population compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%. Regarding ancestral background based on parental country of birth, the primary groups identified in Cairnlea are Vietnamese at 26.7% (compared to 1.9% regionally), Other at 18.9%, and Chinese at 11.0%. Other ethnic communities also demonstrate notable concentrations relative to regional averages, including Filipino residents at 6.2% (vs 1.3% regionally), Maltese at 3.8% (vs 1.1%), and Macedonian at 2.9% (vs 0.7%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Cairnlea is 37. That is 1 year older than at the 2021 Census. 29.5% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The demographic profile of Cairnlea aligns closely with Greater Melbourne, displaying a maximum variance of only 6.4 percentage points across age cohorts. AreaSearch estimates the median age at 37 as at August 2026, rising from 36 at the 2021 Census to match the Greater Melbourne median of 37 recorded during that Census. The most noticeable demographic transition since the Census occurred among the senior cohort aged 65 and over, which expanded from 10.3% to an estimated 14.2%. Long-term projections indicate that older cohorts will represent the main driver of population gains to 2041, increasing by 900 residents (63%) to a total of 2,325.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Cairnlea
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Sep 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Sep 2026 last month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Sep 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jun 2026 4 months ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jun 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 59 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (10,038 at the 2021 Census → 10,035 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (213011329). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.