Cairnlea

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cairnlea's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 10,035 people. This figure represents a decrease of 3 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,038 people. The estimated resident population from the ABS in June 2025 was 10,035, with an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this change. This results in a density ratio of 2,275 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cairnlea's population growth rate of -0.0% since the census places it within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 71.1% of overall population gains in recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, applying adjustments through weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041 based on these aggregations. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected for statistical areas nationally, with Cairnlea projected to increase by 1,805 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 18.0% over the 16-year period, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cairnlea averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 57 homes. As of FY26, 10 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $452,000, higher than regional norms, indicating quality-focused development.

This financial year has seen $19.6 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea records significantly lower building activity, 62.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. The area's population density is around 1559 people per approval, reflecting a mature, established area. Recent development has been entirely standalone homes, maintaining Cairnlea's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes.

By 2041, Cairnlea is projected to grow by 1805 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Cairnlea has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely to affect the area. Notable projects include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Cairnlea shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Cairnlea has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 4.8% as of December 2025, and estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the past year. The unemployment rate aligns with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, while workforce participation is at 69.9%. According to Census responses, 21.3% of residents work from home.

Employment is concentrated in retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. There is strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level, while professional & technical shows lower representation at 5.9%. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 3.7% while labour force grew by 4.3%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points.

National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing growth rates between sectors. Applying these projections to Cairnlea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Cairnlea SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $47,269 and an average of $54,835 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This was lower than the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year 2023 to March 2026, current estimates would be approximately $51,816 (median) and $60,110 (average). Census data shows individual incomes at the 20th percentile were $658 weekly, while household income was at the 69th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captured 37.6% of the community (3,773 individuals), consistent with broader regional trends showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing expenses accounted for 13.7% of income, placing residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cairnlea's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea stood at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented dwellings at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Cairnlea was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,883, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.1% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households making up 10.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 14.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 1,279 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 361 meters from the nearest stop. Most Cairnlea residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 88%, while trains are used by 7% of residents. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling in Cairnlea, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.3% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 182 trips per day, equating to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cairnlea. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover was found to be very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~4,696 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and diabetes, impacting 7.4 and 5.7% of residents respectively. 77.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. As of 14-06-2021, the area has 14.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,470 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea's population is highly diverse, with 53.2% born overseas and 71.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairnlea, accounting for 42.3% of its population. Buddhism is notably overrepresented, comprising 20.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Vietnamese (26.7%), Other (18.9%), and Chinese (11.0%). Notably, Filipino (6.2%) Maltese (3.8%), and Macedonian (2.9%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.3%, 1.1%, and 0.7% respectively.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and remaining comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 15-24 age group comprises 16.0%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 35-44 cohort stands at 11.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has risen from 7.2% to 9.5%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 2.2% to 4.1%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort declined from 14.3% to 11.9%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 14.2% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Cairnlea's age structure. The 55-64 group is expected to grow by 36% (468 people), reaching 1,777 from 1,308. Meanwhile, both the 35-44 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease in number.