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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Cairnlea has an estimated 10,035 residents. That puts 2,276 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Cairnlea stands at approximately 10,035 in May 2026. This indicates a minor contraction of 3 individuals (0.0%) from the 2021 Census, which documented 10,038 residents. This population shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 10,035 alongside 58 validated new addresses registered after the Census date. The locality features a population density of 2,275 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the typical density recorded across the country. The -0.0% growth rate of Cairnlea since the census is within 2.1 percentage points of the wider SA3 region (2.1%), showing comparable growth dynamics.
Overseas migration was the primary driver of population increases, representing about 71.1% of the recent growth. For each SA2 locality, AreaSearch applies the 2024 projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia, which use 2022 as a base year. Where SA2 data is unavailable, the VIC State Government's 2023 Regional/LGA projections are used, adjusted via a weighted aggregation methodology of growth from LGA to SA2 divisions. Growth rates across specific age cohorts derived from these aggregations are also utilized for the period from 2032 to 2041. Based on expected demographic changes, the district is projected to experience population growth above the national median for statistical areas, with a projected gain of 1,805 residents by 2041 compared to the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing an overall increase of 18.0% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
57 new dwellings have been approved in Cairnlea over the past five years, an average of 11 a year. That is 1.1 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 40, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
On average, Cairnlea has seen approximately 11 new residential approvals annually, totaling 57 building permits over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and 37 permits registered during FY-26 to date. As the population declined over the period, residential supply has kept pace with demand, ensuring a balanced market environment with plenty of options for purchasers, while newly built homes have an average construction value of $452,000—slightly higher than the regional average—indicating an emphasis on premium residential builds. Furthermore, commercial approvals have reached $19.6 million during this financial year, showing moderate commercial construction activity.
Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea displays a low volume of building activity, coming in 62.0% below the regional per capita average. This limited addition of new housing stock generally reinforces demand and sustains valuations for established properties. This rate is also below the nationwide average, reflecting a mature suburb and hinting at potential planning limitations. Meanwhile, all recent building activity has been concentrated in detached houses, maintaining the low-density suburban profile of the area which draws buyers looking for extra space. Recording roughly 1554 people per dwelling approval, Cairnlea exhibits the characteristics of a highly established housing market. Long-term forecasts suggest Cairnlea will add 1,805 residents by 2041, based on the most recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. If building activity remains at its current pace, residential construction may fall behind population gains, potentially intensifying competition among buyers and supporting price growth.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Cairnlea
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Cairnlea. A further 93 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $21.1 billion. 17 are already under construction and 23 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and urban planning policies are key drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has tracked 21 projects likely to influence the local area. Primary developments include the Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park, with details provided below on the most relevant schemes.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Cairnlea Estate Final Stage
The final stage of the Cairnlea urban renewal project by Development Victoria on a 41-hectare site at the former Albion Explosives Factory. The Minister for Planning and EPBC Act approvals were secured in early 2026. The project will deliver approximately 500 new homes, including a mix of lots, townhouses, and affordable housing options, alongside new green open spaces, tree-lined streets, and a playground. Essential site remediation works are currently underway, with the first phase expected to be complete by mid-2026.Homes and land lots are anticipated to be available for sale in 2027, with construction expected to commence late 2027 to 2028.
Deer Park Dome Redevelopment
The state-of-the-art Dome will include two greens (4 rinks and 8 rinks) under one cover, allowing for year-round bowling in comfortable conditions. It will host events for bowlers of all levels, major events, and other functions, complementing the existing world-class facilities at Deer Park Club.
Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment
Residential development of the former Kangan Batman TAFE campus site on Military Road. Joint venture between Development Victoria and Frasers Property Australia to deliver 135 contemporary townhouses. The site was purchased after the TAFE campus closed in 2005.
Sunshine Health, Wellbeing and Education Precinct
The Sunshine Health, Wellbeing and Education Precinct is a 67 hectare health, education and employment precinct in St Albans centred on Sunshine Hospital, Joan Kirner Womens and Childrens Hospital, Ginifer Station and surrounding health and education uses. The Victorian Planning Authority has prepared a draft plan with Brimbank City Council and Victorian Government agencies to guide land use change, new jobs in health, wellbeing and education, improved streetscapes and environmental upgrades. The precinct sits within the broader Sunshine Precinct and Sunshine National Employment and Innovation Cluster, which the Victorian Government identifies as a key western Melbourne growth area supported by major transport investment and future employment, housing and liveability improvements.
Amora Estate Cairnlea
Townhouse estate by Truesource featuring approximately 70 homes in a walkable location opposite Cairnlea Shopping Centre. Product mix includes 3 and 4 bedroom, double garage homes with contemporary finishes, engineered oak style flooring, and stone benchtops.
Deer Park Estate
A 1 billion AUD, 66-hectare industrial and logistics estate delivering up to 340,000sqm of prime warehouse space. Construction is underway with Asahi Beverages as the first anchor tenant. The precinct targets a 5 Star Green Star rating and features highbay warehousing, data centre potential, and strategic access to major transport routes.
Station Street Commercial Precinct
Development application for a mixed-use commercial precinct along Station Street including retail spaces, cafes, professional services, and upper-level office accommodation. The project aims to create a vibrant local commercial centre.
Ballarat Road Maintenance and Upgrade
Comprehensive road maintenance and upgrade project along Ballarat Road improving traffic flow, safety, and infrastructure resilience. Includes pavement renewal, drainage improvements, and intersection upgrades in the Deer Park area to support growing traffic demands.
5,536 residents of Cairnlea are employed, from a labour force of 5,812. Unemployment sits at 4.7%, with participation at 69.5%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.9% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 7,615, about 76% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Cairnlea has a qualified labor force employed across multiple industries, with a jobless rate of 4.7% and estimated job growth of 2.0% over the last year. In March 2026, there are 5,536 employed residents, with an unemployment rate matching the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8% and labor force participation aligning closely with the 70.2% recorded for Greater Melbourne. Census records show that a moderate 21.3% of workers performed their duties from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of COVID-19 lockdowns. The resident workforce is largely employed within retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.
Notably, the local representation in transport, postal & warehousing is high, standing at 2.0 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have a minor footprint, employing 5.9% of residents compared to 10.1% across the region. Due to its mainly residential layout, the suburb offers relatively few local jobs, as highlighted by comparing the count of working residents against the local job numbers from the Census. According to the AreaSearch review of SALM and ABS statistics, the latest 12-month period saw employment rise by 2.0% while the total labor force grew by 1.9%, keeping the local unemployment rate stable. This differs from Greater Melbourne, where employment expanded by 2.1%, the workforce grew by 2.3%, and the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment projections from May-25 offer additional perspectives on prospective labor demand in Cairnlea. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth. Nationally, employment is predicted to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates of expansion vary by sector. Projecting these industry trends onto Cairnlea's current employment profile suggests local jobs will grow by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years (note that this is a simple weighted calculation for demonstration purposes and does not account for local population changes).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Cairnlea is $2,062 a week (about $107,000 a year), with median personal income at $658 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $47,269 a year against an average of $54,835. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Income levels in the Cairnlea SA2 are below the national average based on 2023 financial year ATO data processed by AreaSearch. Taxpayers in Cairnlea SA2 recorded a median income of $47,269 and an average income of $54,835, compared to Greater Melbourne figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates point to a median income of $51,816 and an average income of $60,110 as of March 2026. Census findings place individual weekly earnings at the 20th percentile ($658 weekly), whereas household incomes rank higher at the 69th percentile.
The dominant income bracket consists of 37.6% of residents earning between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,773 residents), which aligns with the wider region where 32.8% of households fall into this range. Housing costs consume 13.7% of earnings, and strong household income places residents in the 73rd percentile for disposable funds.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Cairnlea had 2,808 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 89% detached houses and 4% apartments. 51% are owned with a mortgage, 16% rented and 34% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,883 a month. Rent absorbs 19.4% of household income here and mortgage repayments 21.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Residential structures in Cairnlea at the time of the latest Census consisted of 88.6% separate houses and 11.4% alternative dwellings (including semi-detached properties, apartments, and other housing types), compared to metro Melbourne where separate houses make up 67.9% and other dwellings comprise 32.1%. The home ownership rate in Cairnlea was higher than the Melbourne metro average at 33.7%, with the remaining properties occupied by mortgage holders (50.8%) or tenants (15.5%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,883 was lower than the Melbourne metro average of $2,000, while the median weekly rental cost of $400 was slightly higher than the metro average of $390.
Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage payments exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are also higher than the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Cairnlea counted 2,808 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 3.4 people each. 53% are couples with children, more than in 96% of areas nationally, against 18% couples without children. 11% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the vast majority of households at 87.1%, consisting of couples with children (52.7%), couples without children (17.8%), and single parents (15.3%). Non-family households represent the remaining 12.9%, comprising single-person households (10.7%) and group residences (2.1%). The median household size stands at 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
26.3% of adults in Cairnlea hold a university qualification, including 20.7% with a bachelor degree and 4.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 14.6% hold a vocational qualification. 3 schools serve the area, with 820 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,026 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The locality presents educational hurdles, with university graduation rates (26.3%) sitting well below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This scenario highlights both a challenge and a focus area for future education programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate degrees (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational training makes up 24.0% of qualifications for those aged 15 and over, split between advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (14.6%). Enrolment rates are high in the community, with 32.9% of the population participating in formal education. This group is composed of 10.3% in primary schooling, 10.3% in high schools, and 6.7% enrolled in higher education programs.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Cairnlea reaches 15 stops on 4 routes, timetabled for about 1,300 services a week. The typical home sits about 360 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.9 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport analysis shows 15 active transit stops in Cairnlea, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 4 distinct routes, delivering 1,279 weekly passenger connections. Transit accessibility is good, with residents living an average of 361 meters from their nearest stop. Because the suburb is primarily residential, most workers commute out of the area, with private cars being the primary mode of travel at 88%, and trains accounting for 7%. Households average 1.9 vehicles, which is above the regional average. Census figures from 2021 show 21.3% of residents working from home, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.
Across all transit lines, services run at an average of 182 daily trips, which translates to roughly 85 weekly trips per transport stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
77.5% of residents in Cairnlea report no long-term health condition. 6.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 46.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.9 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators demonstrate positive outcomes across Cairnlea, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality statistics and chronic disease trends, with both younger and older demographics showing low rates of common illnesses. Private health insurance coverage is low, held by approximately 47% of the population (~4,696 people). This is below the Greater Melbourne average of 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. Asthma and diabetes are the most prevalent health conditions, affecting 7.4% and 5.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 77.5% of the population reported no chronic medical issues, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne.
The working-age cohort shows strong health profiles with low rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 14.6% of the population (1,470 people). Senior citizens experience positive health outcomes, with national rankings matching the broader community.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
53.2% of Cairnlea residents were born overseas and 71.8% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 96% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are Vietnamese (26.7%) and Chinese (11.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cairnlea ranks among the most culturally diverse localities nationally, with 53.2% of its population born overseas and 71.8% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 42.3% of residents. The suburb has a notable concentration of Buddhists at 20.5% of the population, which is considerably higher than the 4.2% average across Greater Melbourne. Regarding family heritage, the three largest ancestries are Vietnamese at 26.7% of the population (compared to a regional average of 1.9%), Other at 18.9%, and Chinese at 11.0%. There are also distinct concentrations of other ancestral backgrounds: Filipinos account for 6.2% of Cairnlea (versus 1.3% regionally), Maltese make up 3.8% (versus 1.1%), and Macedonians represent 2.9% (versus 0.7%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Cairnlea is 37. That is 1 year older than at the 2021 Census. 29.2% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Cairnlea has a median age of 37, matching the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and sitting close to the Australian median of 38 years. The 15 - 24 age bracket is highly represented at 16.0% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 35 - 44 demographic is less common at 11.9%. Since 2021, the 65 to 74 demographic has increased from 7.2% to 9.5% of the population, and the 75 to 84 bracket rose from 2.2% to 4.1%. Meanwhile, the 35 to 44 cohort decreased from 14.3% to 11.9%, and the 5 to 14 age group fell from 14.2% to 12.3%.
Projections for 2041 indicate notable shifts in age distribution. The 55 to 64 age cohort will expand by 36% (468 people), growing from 1,308 to 1,777, while the 35 to 44 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to shrink.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Cairnlea
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jun 2026 2 months ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jun 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 58 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (10,038 at the 2021 Census → 10,035 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (213011329). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.