Cairnlea

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cairnlea's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, stood at 10,045 as of February 2026. This figure reflects an increase of seven individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,038. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,045 in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,277 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cairnlea exhibited resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.2%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.1% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, an above median population growth is projected, with Cairnlea expected to increase by 1,793 persons, reflecting a total gain of 17.9% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cairnlea averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, with a total of 57 homes approved between FY21 and FY25. In FY26, up to July, there have been 7 approvals. The average construction cost value for these dwellings was $452,000.

Over this period, Cairnlea's population has decreased, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. There were $19.6 million in commercial approvals in FY26, reflecting moderate commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne and nationally, Cairnlea has significantly less development activity, at 63.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand for existing properties, which is also below national averages, suggesting planning constraints or market maturity. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, preserving Cairnlea's suburban character and attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 1559 people per dwelling approval, the market reflects high maturity. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cairnlea is projected to add 1793 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Cairnlea has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely to affect the area. Notable projects include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Cairnlea shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Cairnlea has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.9%. As of September 2025, 5,578 residents were employed, aligning with Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.7%, and similar workforce participation at 71.0%.

Home working was moderate at 21.3% based on Census responses. Employment is concentrated in retail trade, health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and notably transport, postal & warehousing, which is 2.0 times the regional average. Professional & technical employment is limited at 5.9%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities.

Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.9% while labour force grew by 5.3%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment and labour force grow by 3.0% and 3.3% respectively, with a similar unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth rates varying between sectors. Applying these projections to Cairnlea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Cairnlea SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $47,269. The average income stood at $54,835 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median income for Cairnlea SA2 as of September 2025 is approximately $51,169, while the average would be around $59,359. According to census data, individual incomes at the 20th percentile were $658 weekly, with household incomes ranking at the 69th percentile. The largest income bracket comprised 37.6% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This is consistent with broader trends across the area, where 32.8% fell within the same category. Housing expenses accounted for 13.7% of income, placing residents in the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cairnlea's dwelling structure in its latest Census evaluation consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea stood at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Cairnlea was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,883, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 87.1% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 14.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 active public transport stops. These are served by four bus routes, together offering 1279 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 361 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this residential area. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 88%, while trains account for 7%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.3% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 182 trips daily, equating to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cairnlea. AreaSearch's assessment indicates low prevalence of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~4,701 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 7.4 and 5.7% of residents respectively, while 77.5% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,488 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 53.2 percent of its population born overseas and 71.8 percent speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairnlea, making up 42.3 percent of the population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented, comprising 20.5 percent compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2 percent.

The top three ancestry groups in Cairnlea are Vietnamese at 26.7 percent (substantially higher than the regional average of 1.9 percent), Other at 18.9 percent, and Chinese at 11.0 percent. Notably, Filipino, Maltese, and Macedonian ethnic groups are also overrepresented in Cairnlea compared to regional averages: Filipino at 6.2 percent versus 1.3 percent regionally, Maltese at 3.8 percent versus 1.1 percent, and Macedonian at 2.9 percent versus 0.7 percent.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 15-24 age group comprises 16.2% of Cairnlea's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Meanwhile, the 35-44 cohort makes up 12.0%, which is lower compared to Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 7.2% to 9.5%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 2.2% to 4.2%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort has decreased from 14.3% to 12.0%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 14.2% to 12.4%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Cairnlea's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is expected to grow by 35%, reaching 1,779 people from 1,313. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 51% of projected growth. Conversely, the 35-44 and 5-14 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.