Cairnlea
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cairnlea's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 10,042 by August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 4 individuals (0.0%) from the 2021 Census total of 10,038 people. The change is inferred based on the estimated resident population of 10,045 in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,277 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cairnlea has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.2%, outperforming the SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver for population growth in recent periods, contributing approximately 66.1% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made through a weighted aggregation method of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041 based on these aggregations. Considering projected demographic shifts, Cairnlea is expected to experience above median population growth nationally, with an anticipated increase of 1,793 persons by 2041 based on the latest population numbers. This reflects a total increase of 17.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cairnlea has averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals per year. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, totalling 57 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-2020/21 to FY-2025/26, with an additional 2 approvals so far in FY-2026/27. The population has been declining over recent years, yet development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, which is positive for buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $633,000, somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development.

In FY-2025/26, there have been $19.6 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity compared to Greater Melbourne. Cairnlea shows substantially reduced construction levels at 63.0% below the regional average per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings due to limited new supply. This is also below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent development has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, sustaining Cairnlea's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 1559 people per dwelling approval, Cairnlea reflects a highly mature market.

Looking ahead, Cairnlea is projected to grow by approximately 1,796 residents by the year 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Cairnlea has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Cairnlea Remediation Project, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, and Residential Development at 48 Station Street, Deer Park. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Cairnlea remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year.

Employment growth during this period was estimated at 5.5%. As of June 2025, there were 5,725 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, slightly below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.

There is strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (2.0 times the regional level), but professional & technical shows lower representation at 5.9% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 5.5%, while labour force grew by 5.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data from Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cairnlea's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea's median taxpayer income is $44,529 and average income is $52,300 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. As of March 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $49,031 (median) and $57,588 (average), accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022. According to census data, household income ranks at the 70th percentile ($2,062 weekly) while personal income is at the 21st percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 37.6% of Cairnlea's community (3,775 individuals), consistent with broader regional trends showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing accounts for 13.7% of income, with strong earnings ranking residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cairnlea's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea was at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Cairnlea was $1,883, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,700 but close to the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Cairnlea was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $346 and the national figure of $375.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.1 percent of all households, including 52.7 percent couples with children, 17.8 percent couples without children, and 15.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.9 percent, with lone person households at 10.7 percent and group households making up 2.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9 people.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above - advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (14.6%). Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.3% in primary, 10.3% in secondary, and 6.7% in tertiary education.

Cairnlea's three schools have a combined enrollment of 820 students, serving distinct age groups with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1026). School places per 100 residents are lower than the regional average at 8.2, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 1,936 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility in Cairnlea is deemed good, with residents on average situated 360 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 276 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 129 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Cairnlea's health outcomes show excellent results across all age groups. Both younger and older residents have a low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is notably low at approximately 46% (~4,639 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. Asthma and diabetes are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.4 and 5.7% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 77.5%, report being completely free from medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 13.9% (1,395 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. However, health outcomes among seniors require additional focus due to their particular strength.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea has a population where 53.2% were born overseas, with 71.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairnlea, accounting for 42.3% of its population. Notably, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, comprising 20.5% of Cairnlea's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Vietnamese (26.7%), Other (18.9%), and Chinese (11.0%). Some other ethnic groups also show notable differences: Filipino at 6.2%, Maltese at 3.8%, and Macedonian at 2.9%.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (16.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 65-74 has grown from 7.2% to 9.0%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 2.2% to 3.7%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has declined from 14.3% to 12.4%, and the 5-14 age group dropped from 14.2% to 12.7%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Cairnlea's age profile by 2041. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 42%, adding 522 residents, reaching a total of 1,779. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 54% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.