Cairnlea
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cairnlea's population was approximately 10,042 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 4 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,038 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,045 in June 2024 and address validation as of the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,277 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average observed across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cairnlea exhibited resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.2%, surpassing the SA3 area's performance. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 66.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Cairnlea is expected to experience above median population growth nationally, with an anticipated increase of 1,793 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 17.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cairnlea averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 57 homes. As of FY26, 6 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $452,000, higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $19.6 million, indicating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea records significantly lower building activity, 63.0% below the regional average per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This level is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent development has been entirely standalone homes, maintaining Cairnlea's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space, at around 1559 people per approval. By 2041, Cairnlea is expected to grow by 1,796 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Looking ahead, Cairnlea is expected to grow by 1,796 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Cairnlea has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that may affect the area. Notable ones are Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Cairnlea Remediation Project, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, and Residential Development at 48 Station Street, Deer Park. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Cairnlea shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Cairnlea has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 4.5% as of June 2025. In the past year, employment grew by 5.5%.

The area's unemployment rate is 0.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%, with similar workforce participation at 64.1%. Major industries for Cairnlea residents include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has a high employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.9% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 5.5%, while labour force grew by 5.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cairnlea's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea's median taxpayer income was $44,529 and average income was $52,300 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,944 (median) and $58,660 (average). According to census data, household income ranks at the 70th percentile ($2,062 weekly), while personal income is at the 21st percentile. The $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band includes 37.6% of Cairnlea residents (3,775 individuals), similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing expenses account for 13.7% of income, placing residents in the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Cairnlea, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea was at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. The median weekly rent in Cairnlea was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 87.1% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate stands at 26.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (20.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 14.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education. Cairnlea's three schools have a combined enrollment of 820 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1026) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents (8.2) fall below the regional average (14.3), suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes. There are 4 individual routes in total, providing 1,936 weekly passenger trips combined.

The accessibility of public transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 360 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 276 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 129 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Cairnlea's health outcomes show notable results across all age groups, with both younger and older residents experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. Specifically, approximately 46% (~4,639 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.4%) and diabetes (5.7%), while 77.5% report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. Cairnlea has 13.9% (1,395 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.9%, but seniors' health outcomes warrant particular attention.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea has a culturally diverse population, with 53.2% born overseas and 71.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairnlea, accounting for 42.3% of its population. Buddhism is significantly overrepresented compared to the Greater Melbourne average, making up 20.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Vietnamese (26.7%), Other (18.9%), and Chinese (11.0%). Notably, Filipino (6.2%) and Maltese (3.8%) are overrepresented in Cairnlea compared to regional averages.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (16.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 65-74 has grown from 7.2% to 9.0%, while those aged 75-84 increased from 2.2% to 3.7%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 35-44 has declined from 14.3% to 12.4%, and the percentage of those aged 5-14 has dropped from 14.2% to 12.7%. Demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Cairnlea's age profile by 2041. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 42%, adding 522 residents to reach 1,779. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 54% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.