Burnside Heights

Population growth drivers in Burnside Heights are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the population of Burnside Heights is estimated at around 6,450, reflecting an increase of 73 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 1.1% rise from the previous population count of 6,377. AreaSearch's analysis, based on latest ERP data released by ABS in June 2025 and validated new addresses, estimates the resident population at 6,443. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch projects Burnside Heights' population to increase significantly by 2041, with an expected expansion of 1,652 persons, reflecting a 25.5% total increase over the 16 years.

This projection is based on aggregated SA2-level projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered areas and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for non-covered areas, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas from these aggregations for the years 2032 to 2041.

The level of residential development activity in Burnside Heights is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Burnside Heights has experienced around 3 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 17 homes. So far in the financial year starting July 2026 (FY-26), one dwelling approval has been recorded. With population declining over recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $477,000, slightly above the regional average. This suggests a focus on quality developments. Additionally, $46,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. When measured against Greater Melbourne, Burnside Heights records markedly lower building activity. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments.

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of currently 91.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. At around 1083 people per approval, Burnside Heights shows a mature, established area with an expected population growth of 1,645 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Burnside Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to impact the area: Kings Park Reserve Sports Facilities Upgrades, Taylors Creek Residential Estate, Aspire Community, and Modeina Estate. The following details projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Burnside Heights shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Burnside Heights has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.8%, lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.8%. In the year ending December 2025, employment grew by 3.7%.

Resident participation in the workforce is high at 78.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A significant proportion, 26.0%, work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area specializes in the latter with employment share twice the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 7.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, labour force by 4.3%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, May-25, project national employment growth by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Burnside Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Burnside Heights had a median income among taxpayers of $54,342 and an average income of $63,826 in financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 during the same period. By March 2026, estimated median and average incomes in Burnside Heights would be approximately $59,570 and $69,966 respectively, based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data indicates that household incomes rank at the 80th percentile ($2,246 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 50th percentile. In Burnside Heights, 39.6% of the population (2,554 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. A substantial proportion of high earners (31.6% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Burnside Heights. High housing costs consume 16.3% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 79th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Burnside Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Burnside Heights' dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Burnside Heights was 18.7%, with the rest either mortgaged (63.5%) or rented (17.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $411, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Burnside Heights' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Burnside Heights features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 93.2% of all households, including 66.3% couples with children, 13.4% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 6.8%, with lone person households at 5.4% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Burnside Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 34.2% among residents aged 15+ exceeding the SA3 area average of 24.3% and the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 23.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 25.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (15.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 38.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 16.7% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Burnside Heights has 14 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 918 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents living an average of 230 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Car remains the primary mode of transport, used by 90% of residents, while only 7% use the train. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling in Burnside Heights, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant proportion of residents, specifically 26%, work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 131 trips per day, equating to roughly 65 weekly trips per individual stop.

Burnside Heights's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Burnside Heights. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low among the general population, nearing the nation's average even among older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover was present in approximately 52% of the total population (~3,359 people), slightly lagging the average SA2 area rate of 56.7%. The most common medical conditions were asthma and diabetes, impacting 6.5 and 4.2% of residents respectively. A total of 81.4% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 8.4% of residents aged 65 and over (541 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Burnside Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Burnside Heights has a high level of cultural diversity, with 49.9% of its population born overseas and 61.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Burnside Heights, accounting for 48.8% of the population. Buddhism, however, is more prevalent in Burnside Heights compared to Greater Melbourne, with 7.4% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (25.1%), Indian (10.3%), and Australian (9.8%). These figures differ significantly from regional averages: Other (14.6%), Indian (4.2%), and Australian (18.4%). Notably, Maltese (5.8% vs 1.1%), Spanish (1.3% vs 0.4%), and Vietnamese (7.9% vs 1.9%) are overrepresented in Burnside Heights compared to regional figures.

Burnside Heights's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Burnside Heights has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 19.1% of the population in Burnside Heights, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 age group makes up 9.3%. This concentration of the 5-14 age group is higher than the national average of 12.0%. Between 2021 and present, residents have aged by an average of 1.7 years, with the median age rising from 33 to 35 years. During this period, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.3% to 16.1%, while the 45-54 cohort increased from 12.8% to 15.5%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has declined from 22.6% to 18.2%, and the 5-14 age group has decreased from 21.7% to 19.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Burnside Heights, with the 45-54 cohort projected to grow by 38%, adding 383 residents to reach 1,383. In contrast, both the 5-14 and 35-44 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.