Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

The population of Keilor Downs is estimated at around 9,962 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 9,857 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,954 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,984 persons per square kilometer. Keilor Downs's growth rate of 1.1% since census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.1%). Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 452 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 4.5% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Keilor Downs according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Keilor Downs had around 33 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 165 homes. As of FY26, 10 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes. The average value for new dwellings is $338,000.

In FY26, there have been $60.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs shows moderately higher building activity (11.0% above regional average per person over the five-year period), offering buyer choice while supporting current property values. However, this level is below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands. With around 247 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs is considered a low density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 444 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good buying conditions and potentially supporting population growth beyond projections.

Keilor Downs has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eleven projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rosemont Townhomes, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Keilor Downs shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate in the area was 6.2% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 5,029 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Keilor Downs lagged significantly at 62.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Based on Census responses, 23.1% of residents worked from home. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Keilor Downs had a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 6.0% of Keilor Downs's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.5% while labour force increased by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points in Keilor Downs. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Keilor Downs. These projections suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keilor Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, although these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Keilor Downs suburb has a median taxpayer income of $48,499 and an average of $58,403 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. As of March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $53,165 (median) and $64,021 (average), adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023. Census data shows individual incomes at the 10th percentile are $586 weekly, while household incomes perform better at the 38th percentile. Income distribution reveals that 32.0% of Keilor Downs' population (3,187 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends in surrounding regions showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing costs allow for retention of 87.5%, but disposable income is below average at the 43rd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Keilor Downs, as per the latest Census, 85.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 14.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Melbourne's metropolitan area, where 67.9% of dwellings are houses and 32.1% are other types. Home ownership in Keilor Downs stood at 49.6%, with mortgaged properties making up 31.7% and rented dwellings accounting for 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne's metro average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Keilor Downs was $360, compared to Melbourne's metropolitan figure of $390. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.0% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 15.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (21.2%). Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.3% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 45 active stops operating within Keilor Downs. These stops serve a mix of bus routes totalling six. They facilitate 929 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 210 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commute outward. Car remains dominant at 89%, while train usage stands at 7%.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, exceeding regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 23.1% of residents work from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 132 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Keilor Downs is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Keilor Downs shows better-than-average health outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups have low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 50% (~4978 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, it's 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.2%) and asthma (7.3%). About 68.2% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among working-age residents are typical. Keilor Downs has 26.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2590 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.3% of its population born overseas and 50.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor Downs, accounting for 63.0% of people, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Other (16.7%), Australian (12.8%), and English (10.6%).

Notably, Maltese (5.8%) is overrepresented in Keilor Downs compared to the regional average of 1.1%. Similarly, Macedonian (4.4%) and Croatian (4.0%) groups are also notably higher than their respective regional averages of 0.7% each.

Keilor Downs hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Keilor Downs is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up a significant portion at 14.2%, while the 35-44 group is smaller at 11.5% compared to Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 8.9% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 14.8% to 13.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor Downs's age structure. The 75-84 age group is projected to increase by 355 people (40%) from 886 to 1,242. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 81% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. However, the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.