Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Keilor Downs is around 9,901 people. This figure reflects an increase of 44 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,857. The current estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and their examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 9,903. This results in a population density ratio of 1,972 persons per square kilometer for Keilor Downs, which exceeds the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate since the census is 0.4%, placing it within 2.2 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% to Keilor Downs' population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted via weighted aggregation for areas not covered by the first dataset. Applying these projections, Keilor Downs is expected to increase its population by 489 persons to reach approximately 10,390 people by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 4.7% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Keilor Downs according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Keilor Downs has seen approximately 32 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 163 homes. As of FY-26, six approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes, benefiting buyers with new dwellings averaging $338,000, below regional norms and offering more affordable housing options. This financial year has seen $61.8 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating robust local business investment.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs records slightly elevated construction levels at 11.0% above the regional average per person over five years, maintaining reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, this level is below national averages, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium to high-density housing, promoting affordability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 85.0% houses) reflects reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands. With around 240 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Keilor Downs is projected to grow by 462 residents by 2041.

Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor Downs has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Rosemont Townhomes, 20 Packard Street Townhouses, and Keilor Downs Urban Design Framework. The following list details those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Keilor Downs shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 5.6% as of an unspecified past year, with estimated employment growth of 5.1%.

As of June 2025, there are 5,067 residents employed, which is an unemployment rate of 1.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Keilor Downs is significantly lower at 54.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Keilor Downs has a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 5.1% while labour force increased by 5.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a similar rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insights into potential future demand within Keilor Downs. These projections suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keilor Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Keilor Downs had a median taxpayer income of $48,499 and an average income of $58,403 in financial year 2022. This was lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761 during the same period. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $54,396 and the average income around $65,505, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census data indicates individual incomes at the 10th percentile were $586 weekly, while household incomes were at the 38th percentile. Income distribution showed that 32.0% of Keilor Downs' population (3,168 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region's 32.8%. Housing costs were manageable with 87.5% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 43rd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor Downs' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs stood at 49.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.7% and rented dwellings at 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. Median weekly rent in Keilor Downs was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.0% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 15.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.5%, substantially below Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 21.2%. Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.3% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 5.1% in tertiary education.

Keilor Downs has 4 schools with a combined enrollment of 2,353 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1016) with balanced educational opportunities. The area provides balanced education with 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. It functions as an education hub with 23.8 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 14.2 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Downs has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1,496 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is deemed good, with residents on average being located just 210 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 213 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Keilor Downs is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Keilor Downs faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~4,947 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.2%) and asthma (7.3%). 68.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.5% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 2021, 25.6% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,534 people), higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has high cultural diversity, with 43.3% of its population born overseas and 50.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Keilor Downs, making up 63.0%, compared to 51.4% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Other (16.7%), Australian (12.8%), and English (10.6%).

Notably, Maltese (5.8%) is overrepresented in Keilor Downs compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Similarly, Macedonian (4.4%) and Croatian (4.0%) groups are also overrepresented compared to their respective regional averages of 2.5% and 2.2%.

Keilor Downs hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Keilor Downs is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 14.4% of the population, a concentration significantly higher than the national figure of 9.4%. Meanwhile, the 35-44 age group constitutes only 11.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 8.4% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 14.8% to 13.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 75 to 84 age group will rise significantly, with an increase of 453 people (55%) from 831 to 1,285. Notably, those aged 65 and above are expected to account for 87% of total population growth in Keilor Downs. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to experience population declines.