Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Keilor Downs had an estimated population of 9,932 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 75 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,857. The increase was inferred from the resident population estimate of 9,921 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,978 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor Downs' growth rate of 0.8% since the census is within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.6%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Keilor Downs is expected to increase by 454 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 4.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Keilor Downs according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Keilor Downs had approximately 33 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 165 homes. By June 2026, nine approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $338,000.

This year, there have been $60.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs shows moderately higher building activity, with 12.0% above the regional average per person over five years. However, this level is below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium to high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. Keilor Downs has a low density characteristic with around 246 people per dwelling approval.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Keilor Downs is projected to grow by 443 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor Downs has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Eleven projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area, with key ones being Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rosemont Townhomes, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Keilor Downs shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 6.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.1%. As of December 2025, there were 4,922 residents employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Keilor Downs was significantly lower at 61.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 23.1% of residents worked from home. The key industries of employment were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. However, the area had a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 6.0% of Keilor Downs' workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force increased by 4.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a smaller increase in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project an expansion of national employment by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor Downs' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Keilor Downs, a suburb, had median taxpayer income of $48,499 and average income of $58,403 in financial year 2023. This was lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income would be approximately $52,500 and average income around $63,221, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. Census data shows individual incomes at the 10th percentile were $586 weekly, while household incomes were at the 38th percentile. Income distribution revealed 32.0% (3,178 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, consistent with surrounding region's 32.8%. Housing costs allowed for retention of 87.5%, but disposable income was below average at the 43rd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor Downs' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs stood at 49.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (31.7%) or rented (18.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.0% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 15.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (21.2%). Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.3% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 5.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.3% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 45 active transport stops operating within Keilor Downs. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling six individual routes that provide 929 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 210 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 89%, while train usage stands at 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which exceeds the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 23.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 132 trips per day, equating to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Keilor Downs is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Keilor Downs shows better-than-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups have low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (around 4,963 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.2%) and asthma (7.3%). About 68.2% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among working-age individuals are generally typical. Keilor Downs has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 26.6% (around 2,641 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.3% of its population born overseas and 50.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor Downs, accounting for 63.0% of people, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Other (16.7%), Australian (12.8%) and English (10.6%).

Notably, Maltese (5.8%), Macedonian (4.4%) and Croatian (4.0%) populations in Keilor Downs exceed the regional averages of 1.1%, 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.

Keilor Downs hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Keilor Downs is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 14.4%, while those aged 35-44 comprise 11.4%. From 2021 to present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.4% to 9.2% of the population, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 14.8% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections show that the 75-84 age cohort is expected to increase by 372 people (41%), rising from 913 to 1,286. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 81% of total population growth. Conversely, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.