Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Keilor Downs' population is estimated at around 9,932 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 75 people (0.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,857 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,921 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,978 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor Downs' 0.8% growth since census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected, with the suburb expected to increase by 480 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 4.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Keilor Downs according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Keilor Downs has seen around 33 new homes approved each year since the financial year 2017-18, totalling an estimated 165 homes over the past five financial years. As of May 2022, 55 approvals have been recorded in the current financial year 2021-22. The population has fallen over this period, yet development activity has remained adequate relative to population changes, which could be beneficial for buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $338,000.

There have also been $60.1 million in commercial approvals during the current financial year, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs shows moderately higher building activity, with 12.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period ending May 2022. This level is also below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium and high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 85.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 246 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs shows characteristics of a low density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Keilor Downs is expected to grow by approximately 425 residents through to the year 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Keilor Downs has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rosemont Townhomes, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Keilor Downs shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 6.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.1%. As of September 2025, 4924 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation lagged at 62.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 23.1% of residents worked from home. Key industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area had a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 6.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.1% while labour force grew by 5.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Keilor Downs' median taxpayer income was $48,499 and average was $58,403 in financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne's median at $57,688 and average at $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $52,500 (median) and $63,221 (average), accounting for an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Keilor Downs' individual income at the 10th percentile was $586 weekly, while household income was at the 38th percentile. Income distribution showed 32.0% of individuals earning between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with surrounding regions at 32.8%. Housing costs were manageable with 87.5% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 43rd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor Downs' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs stood at 49.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.7% and rented ones at 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Keilor Downs was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.0% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 15.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (21.2%). Educational participation is high at 26.5%, comprising primary education (8.3%), secondary education (7.3%), and tertiary education (5.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.3% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Downs has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 929 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 210 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Keilor Downs being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 89%, while train usage stands at 7%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.7, which exceeds the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.1% of residents work from home, a figure potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 132 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Keilor Downs is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Keilor Downs shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups have low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is relatively low at about 50% of the total population (~4,963 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, it stands at 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.2%) and asthma (7.3%), while 68.2% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among working-age residents are typical. Keilor Downs has 26.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,622 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.3% of its population born overseas and 50.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Keilor Downs, making up 63.0% of people, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Other (16.7%), Australian (12.8%), and English (10.6%).

Notably, Maltese (5.8%) is overrepresented in Keilor Downs compared to the regional average of 1.1%, as are Macedonian (4.4% vs 0.7%) and Croatian (4.0% vs 0.7%).

Keilor Downs hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Keilor Downs is 43 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 years make up a substantial portion at 14.4%, while those aged 35-44 years are relatively smaller at 11.2% compared to Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of those aged 75-84 years has increased from 6.4% to 9.1%. Conversely, the age group of 55-64 years has decreased from 14.8% to 13.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor Downs' age structure. The number of people aged 75-84 is projected to increase by 376 individuals (42%), from 903 to 1,280. Notably, the combined population aged 65 and above will account for 84% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Conversely, the age groups of 65-74 years and 15-24 years are expected to experience population declines.