Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since the Census, Keilor Downs statistical area (Lv2)'s population is estimated at around 9,932 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 75 people from the 2021 Census figure of 9,857. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 9,921 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,978 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor Downs' 0.8% growth since census is within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's 2.5%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in June 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Keilor Downs (SA2) is expected to increase by 487 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 4.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Keilor Downs according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Keilor Downs had approximately 33 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 165 homes. As of FY-26, 55 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been relatively adequate, which is positive for buyers. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $338,000.

This financial year has seen $60.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs exhibits moderately higher building activity, with 12.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. However, this level is below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix of 85.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Keilor Downs has around 246 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Keilor Downs is projected to grow by approximately 429 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Keilor Downs has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Eleven projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key ones include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rosemont Townhomes, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Keilor Downs shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 6.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.1%.

As of September 2025, 4921 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Melbourne's at 1.4%. Workforce participation is lower too, at 54.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Keilor Downs specialises in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.1% while labour force grew by 5.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced a 3.0% employment growth and a 0.3 percentage point increase in unemployment rate over the same period. State-level data for Victoria as of 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 12.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Keilor Downs had a median taxpayer income of $48,499 and an average income of $58,403 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164 in the same period. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $52,500 (median) and $63,221 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. Census data shows individual incomes at the 10th percentile were $586 weekly, while household incomes were at the 38th percentile. Income distribution data indicates that 32.0% of Keilor Downs' population (3,178 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region's 32.8%. Housing costs are manageable with 87.5% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 43rd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor Downs' dwellings, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 85.2% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs stood at 49.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.7% and rented ones at 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. Median weekly rent in Keilor Downs was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 80.0% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 15.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (21.2%). Educational participation is high at 26.5%, comprising 8.3% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.3% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Downs has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 929 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility in Keilor Downs is rated as good, with residents on average being located 210 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 132 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Keilor Downs is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Keilor Downs faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~4963 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.2%) and asthma (7.3%). 68.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.5% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 2021, the area has 25.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2542 people), which is higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.3% of its population born overseas and 50.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor Downs, accounting for 63.0% of people, compared to 51.4% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups in Keilor Downs are Other (16.7%), Australian (12.8%), and English (10.6%).

Notably, Maltese (5.8%) and Macedonian (4.4%) populations are higher than the regional averages of 4.6% and 2.5%, respectively, while Croatian (4.0%) is also relatively high compared to the regional average of 2.2%.

Keilor Downs hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Keilor Downs is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 years make up 14.4% of the population, a figure notably higher than the national average of 9.4%. Meanwhile, those aged 35-44 years comprise only 11.4%, which is smaller compared to Greater Melbourne's profile. Between 2021 and now, the proportion of individuals aged 75-84 years has increased from 6.4% to 8.4%, while the percentage of those aged 55-64 years has decreased from 14.8% to 13.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the number of individuals aged 75-84 will rise significantly, increasing by 449 people (54%) from 834 to 1,284. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 87% of total population growth. Conversely, both the 65-74 and 15-24 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.