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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Keilor Downs has an estimated 9,962 residents, up from 9,857 at the 2021 Census — a change of 105 people, or 1.1%. That puts 1,985 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Based on demographic evaluations from the ABS for the wider region, combined with address validations from AreaSearch after the Census, the suburb of Keilor Downs has an estimated population of approximately 9,962 in May 2026. This indicates a growth of 105 individuals (1.1%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 9,857 people. This shift is calculated from a resident population count of 9,954, determined by AreaSearch using the latest ABS ERP release from June 2025 alongside an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census. The local population density stands at 1,984 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the typical figure for national locations analyzed by AreaSearch.
The 1.1% increase in the suburb of Keilor Downs since the census is within 1.0 percentage points of the broader SA3 region (2.1%), showing competitive expansion. This population increase was largely underpinned by net overseas migration, which accounted for approximately 77.0% of the total demographic growth in recent times. Projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024 with a 2022 baseline are utilized for each SA2 region. For SA2 areas lacking this data, projections are sourced from the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA dataset, using a weighted aggregation method to map LGA-level growth to SA2 levels. Growth rates across age demographics from these models are also applied to the years 2032 through 2041. Future demographic shifts point to a growth rate slightly below the national median, with the suburb of Keilor Downs projected to add 452 residents by 2041 based on compiled SA2 models, representing an overall expansion of 4.5% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
161 new dwellings have been approved in Keilor Downs over the past five years, an average of 32 a year. That is 3.2 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 31 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 19% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 10, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
According to building approval figures from the ABS compiled by AreaSearch, Keilor Downs has averaged roughly 32 new residential approvals each year, summing to about 161 dwellings over the preceding 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 10 residential approvals have been logged. As the population decreased over the previous period, the volume of housing remained sufficient to meet local demand, fostering a balanced market with healthy buyer options, while new homes average a construction value of $338,000. Furthermore, $60.1 million in commercial building approvals have been registered in the current financial year, pointing to strong local business investment.
In comparison to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs shows a comparable rate of per capita residential construction, aligning with regional market stability. This building rate is below the national average, pointing to local market maturity and potential zoning limitations. New residential approvals are composed of 19.0% standalone houses and 81.0% medium to high-density options. This emphasis on higher-density housing offers more accessible price points, catering to downsizers, property investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a major departure from the existing housing stock, which is 85.0% standalone houses, reflecting a scarcity of vacant land alongside changing consumer preferences and affordability constraints. Averaging about 239 residents per residential approval, the area shows patterns typical of a low-density suburb. Looking forward, the population of Keilor Downs is projected to rise by 444 people by 2041, according to the latest quarterly models from AreaSearch. Based on current construction trends, future housing additions should comfortably satisfy demand, providing favorable purchasing conditions and potentially supporting population expansion above current forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Keilor Downs
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 11 current infrastructure and development projects inside Keilor Downs, worth an estimated $245 million. A further 45 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $6.18 billion. 11 are already under construction and 11 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, sports & recreation and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure updates, planning schemes, and major developments have a significant impact on local performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 11 projects expected to influence the local area. Notable projects include the Essendon Keilor College East Keilor Campus upgrade, the Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Rosemont Townhomes, and the 20 Packard Street Townhouses, with details provided for the most significant developments.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Baptcare Keilor Downs Affordable Housing
Construction of 47 social and affordable housing dwellings, comprised of 23 single-storey and 24 double-storey units, delivered under Victoria's Big Housing Build program. The homes are accessed via a new internal loop road connecting to Thornhill Drive, each with one car space and landscaped front and rear yards. The project is a partnership between Baptcare Affordable Housing and the Victorian Government, part of a combined 95-home commitment across Keilor Downs and Lalor. Civil works are well underway on site.
Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment
Approved staged masterplan and development plan for Keilor Central, enabling a 10-15 year redevelopment of the sub-regional shopping centre. The plan allows about 20,000 sqm of new retail, shops and marketplace space, new laneways and market-style retail, greener public spaces, improved links to Brimbank Aquatic and Wellness Centre, and about 320 dwellings to add mixed-use activity and housing diversity.
Keilor Downs Urban Design Framework
The Keilor Downs Urban Design Framework, adopted by Brimbank City Council in 2018, sets an integrated vision for the future built form, public realm, and land use of the Keilor Downs Activity Centre. It guides Council's assessment of planning permit applications within the activity centre, covering built form controls, streetscape improvements, and pedestrian connectivity. The framework document was last reviewed and confirmed current as of 6 February 2024.
20 Packard Street Townhouses
Development of 8 two-storey townhouses designed for modern living. The development application has been granted by Brimbank Council. Construction is expected to commence soon.
Keilor Downs Social Housing Development
47 social housing dwellings in Copernicus Way, Keilor Downs as part of Big Housing Build program. Partnership between Homes Victoria and community housing providers to deliver affordable housing for eligible Victorians on the Victorian Housing Register.
Aspect Apartments - Keilor Downs
Boutique townhouse development by Soho Living and architect Rothelowman comprising 99 townhouses at 7B Copernicus Way, Keilor Downs. Features luxurious, low-maintenance lifestyle with contemporary design, timber-like cladding, abundant glazing, premium Smeg appliances, composite stone benchtops, and ducted heating. Positioned in growing western suburbs with excellent transport access.
Rosemont Townhomes
Rosemont introduces a collection of 42 modern townhomes in a hidden pocket of Keilor East, positioned on undulating topography with private courtyards and secondary living spaces. Designed by Jesse Ant Architects, each home features refined materials, modern elegance, light-filled environments, Miele appliances, stone benchtops, and a choice of dark or light color schemes.
M80 Shared User Path Upgrade
Upgraded shared user path along the M80 between Dodds Road and the EJ Whitten Bridge, providing a smoother and safer journey for bike riders and walkers. Includes a new 1km shared user path through natural parkland and green space.
5,015 residents of Keilor Downs are employed, from a labour force of 5,326. Unemployment sits at 5.8%, with participation at 62.4%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 7,939, about 80% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Keilor Downs has a skilled labor force working across diverse industries, with an unemployment rate of 5.8% and an annual employment growth rate of 2.4%, according to AreaSearch models. By March 2026, 5,015 local residents were employed. The unemployment rate is 1.1% higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.8%, while the labor participation rate of 62.4% is notably lower than the metropolitan average of 70.2%. Census figures show a moderate 23.1% of working residents performed their jobs from home, though this may reflect the influence of pandemic lockdowns. The primary employment sectors for local residents are healthcare & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.
The area shows a high concentration of workers in transport, postal & warehousing, with its employment share sitting at 1.9 times the metropolitan average. Conversely, professional & technical roles are underrepresented, accounting for only 6.0% of the local workforce compared to 10.1% across Greater Melbourne. Comparison between the resident workforce and the local job count suggests this predominantly residential area offers limited local employment options. Based on SALM and ABS statistics compiled by AreaSearch, employment grew by 2.4% and the labor force expanded by 2.3% during the 12 months leading to March 2026, keeping the local unemployment rate steady. Over the same timeframe, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.1% and the labor force grow by 2.3%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia as of May-25 offer additional context on future labor demand. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local industry mix to model potential growth. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary widely by sector. Applying these projections to the local workforce mix suggests employment could rise by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this simple weighting does not account for localized population changes.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Keilor Downs is $1,558 a week (about $81,000 a year), with median personal income at $586 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $48,499 a year against an average of $58,403. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest postcode-level ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year, the suburb of Keilor Downs has a median taxpayer income of $48,499 and an average income of $58,403. These figures are below the national benchmark, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Adjusted for WPI growth of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, local incomes are estimated at roughly $53,165 (median) and $64,021 (average) as of March 2026. Census records place individual incomes at the 10th percentile with a weekly median of $586, while household incomes fare better at the 38th percentile.
Income distribution details show that 32.0% of the population (3,187 residents) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, matching the wider regional rate of 32.8% in this bracket. Housing expenses are manageable with residents keeping 87.5% of their income, though disposable income is below average at the 43rd percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Keilor Downs had 3,386 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 85% detached houses and 1% apartments. 32% are owned with a mortgage, 19% rented and 50% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $360 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,733 a month. Rent absorbs 23.1% of household income here and mortgage repayments 25.7%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, residential structures in Keilor Downs were composed of 85.2% standalone houses and 14.7% alternative housing options, such as duplexes, townhouses, and apartments, compared to 67.9% houses and 32.1% alternative options across metropolitan Melbourne. The home ownership rate was notably higher than the metropolitan average at 49.6%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (31.7%) or rented (18.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,733 was significantly lower than the Melbourne average of $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $360, compared to the metropolitan median of $390.
Globally, mortgage costs in the area are lower than the national average of $1,863, while weekly rents remain below the Australian benchmark of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Keilor Downs counted 3,386 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.8 people each. 36% are couples with children, against 28% couples without children. 18% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.8 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units are the primary household structure at 80.0%, consisting of couples with children (36.0%), couples without children (27.8%), and single-parent homes (15.1%). Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 20.0%, with single-person households representing 18.4% and group shared housing representing 1.7%. The typical household size of 2.8 people exceeds the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
21.5% of adults in Keilor Downs hold a university qualification, including 15.4% with a bachelor degree and 4.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 21.2% hold a vocational qualification. 4 schools serve the area, with 2,353 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,016 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The local population presents educational gaps, with university qualification levels (21.5%) sitting substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This highlights a challenge as well as an opening for targeted educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 4.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.0%. Technical and vocational qualifications are common, with 30.9% of residents aged 15 and over possessing vocational training, consisting of advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (21.2%). A high proportion of the community is engaged in education, with 26.5% of residents currently undertaking formal study.
This comprises 8.3% enrolled in primary schools, 7.3% in secondary schools, and 5.1% studying at a tertiary level.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Keilor Downs reaches 45 stops on 6 routes, timetabled for about 930 services a week. The typical home sits about 210 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.7 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport services in Keilor Downs consist of 45 active transit stops, comprising a network of bus routes. These stops are served by 6 routes that deliver 929 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is favorable, with residents generally living within 210 meters of their nearest stop. Given the residential nature of the suburb, the majority of commuters travel outside the area, with private vehicles remaining the primary mode of travel at 89%, while 7% commute by train. Households average 1.7 vehicles, which is higher than the regional average. A total of 23.1% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.
Services average 132 daily trips across the transit network, translating to roughly 20 weekly passenger trips at each individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
68.2% of residents in Keilor Downs report no long-term health condition. 8.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.0% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Keilor Downs shows positive health metrics based on AreaSearch assessments of mortality and chronic illness rates, with low rates of common health conditions across both younger and older demographics. The rate of private health insurance coverage is relatively low, held by approximately 50% of the population (~4,978 people). This is below the Greater Melbourne average of 56.7% and the national benchmark of 55.7%. Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent diagnosed medical conditions locally, affecting 8.2% and 7.3% of the community, respectively. Meanwhile, 68.2% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne.
Health profiles for working-age residents are typical. Residents aged 65 and over make up 26.0% of the local population (2,590 people), which is higher than the 15.0% proportion seen across Greater Melbourne. Senior citizens show above-average health outcomes, with national rankings aligning closely with the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
43.3% of Keilor Downs residents were born overseas and 50.8% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 87% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (12.8%) and English (10.6%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
The local population displays high levels of cultural diversity, with 43.3% of residents born outside Australia and 50.8% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religious affiliation, practiced by 63.0% of the community, which is higher than the 43.0% recorded across Greater Melbourne. In terms of parental country of birth, the largest ancestry groups are Other at 16.7%, followed by Australian at 12.8% (which is below the regional average of 18.4%), and English at 10.6% (below the regional average of 20.1%). Certain backgrounds are notably overrepresented locally compared to the metropolitan region, including Maltese at 5.8% of the population (compared to 1.1% regionally), Macedonian at 4.4% (compared to 0.7%), and Croatian at 4.0% (compared to 0.7%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Keilor Downs is 43. 24.2% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 43 in Keilor Downs is older than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the national average of 38. The age breakdown shows a high concentration of residents aged 65 to 74 (14.2%), while the 35 to 44 age bracket is smaller (11.5%) than the metropolitan average. Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has increased from 6.4% to 8.9%, while the 55 to 64 age bracket has contracted from 14.8% to 13.1%. By 2041, demographic models project significant changes, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 355 people (40%) from 886 to 1,242.
The combined 65 and over cohorts are projected to make up 81% of the total population growth, reflecting an aging community. Conversely, declines are expected in the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 age groups.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Keilor Downs
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 11 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 65 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (9,857 at the 2021 Census → 9,962 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL21315). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.