Albanvale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Albanvale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of Albanvale as of Nov 2025 is around 5632. This reflects a decrease of 9 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5641. The change was inferred from the resident population estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3028 persons per square kilometer, placing Albanvale in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. While Albanvale experienced a 0.2% decline since census, the SA3 area achieved 2.6% growth, highlighting divergent population trends. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 372 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 6.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Albanvale is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Albanvale averaged approximately 2 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25, an estimated 11 homes were approved, with 2 more in FY26 so far.

Despite population decline over the past period, housing supply has been adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $284,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Albanvale has significantly less development activity, 87.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. This activity is also below national average, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, sustaining Albanvale's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 1019 people per dwelling approval, Albanvale reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Albanvale is forecasted to gain 360 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Albanvale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect the region: Taylors Creek Residential Estate, Cairnlea Remediation Project, Amora Estate Cairnlea, and Sunshine Hospital Emergency Department Redevelopment. The following details those most relevant.

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Employment drivers in Albanvale are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Albanvale has a diverse workforce with significant representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 10.3% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%. This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 2,474 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 5.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Albanvale was 50.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%.

Leading employment industries among residents include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had limited presence with only 4.3% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.2%, labour force grew by 5.6%, and unemployment rose by 1.2 percentage points in Albanvale. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Albanvale. These projections estimate that national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Albanvale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.5% over five years and 12.0% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Albanvale's median income among taxpayers was $42,667 in financial year 2022, according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $48,518 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $47,855 and average income is around $54,418, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census figures rank household income at the 18th percentile ($1,279 weekly) and personal income at the 2nd percentile in Albanvale. Predominantly, 30.4% of locals (1,712 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 19th percentile.

Albanvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Albanvale's dwellings, as per the latest Census, comprised 96.0% houses and 4.0% other dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Albanvale was 38.3%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 37.6%, while rented dwellings made up 24.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Albanvale was $1,500, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,700 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Albanvale was $325, lower than Melbourne metro's $346 and the national average of $375.

Albanvale features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 79.0% of all households, including 35.4% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 20.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.0%, with lone person households at 18.1% and group households making up 3.2%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Albanvale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 29.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.3% and certificates at 19.9%. Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.7% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Albanvale Primary School serves the area, with an enrollment of 305 students as of a certain date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with ICSEA score of 948. Secondary options are available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 5.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.2, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows 23 operational transport stops in Albanvale, all of which are bus stops. These are served by five distinct routes that together facilitate 2,298 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to public transport is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 173 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 328 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 99 weekly trips per individual stop.

Albanvale's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Albanvale residents have relatively positive health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions compared to the general population, but higher than national averages for older cohorts at risk. Private health cover is extremely low at 46% (2,597 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 48.1%. Nationally, it stands at 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.1% and 7.0% respectively. 72.5% of residents report no medical ailments, close to Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. There is a higher proportion of seniors aged 65+ at 19.5% (1,098 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Albanvale is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Albanvale has one of the highest levels of cultural diversity in Australia, with 56.9% of its population born overseas and 69.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Albanvale, accounting for 51.1% of the population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented, making up 14.8% compared to 12.5% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups in Albanvale are Other (23.0%), Vietnamese (20.1%), and Australian (10.4%). There are also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Filipino is overrepresented at 4.9% compared to the regional average of 3.7%, Maltese is slightly underrepresented at 4.2% versus a regional figure of 4.6%, and Croatian is underrepresented at 1.8% compared to 2.2%.

Albanvale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Albanvale has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years, and is comparable to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group makes up 11.1% of Albanvale's population compared to Greater Melbourne. The 35-44 cohort represents 13.4%, which is less prevalent than in Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and the present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.4% to 6.9%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 11.7% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Albanvale's age structure. The 75-84 group is expected to grow by 51%, reaching 586 people from 388. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 65% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 65-74 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.