Caroline Springs

Population growth drivers in Caroline Springs are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Caroline Springs' population was approximately 21,059 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 694 people, a 3.4% rise from the 2021 Census which reported a population of 20,365. The growth is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 21,022 in June 2024 and an additional 51 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,030 persons per square kilometer, placing Caroline Springs in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a significant increase in Caroline Springs' top quartile of national statistical areas, with an expected expansion of 6,308 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 29.8% over 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Caroline Springs is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Caroline Springs has received approximately five dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 26 homes. In FY-26, two approvals have been recorded so far. The population has decreased during this period, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers. Developers are targeting the premium market segment, with an average dwelling value of $678,000.

This financial year, $34.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Caroline Springs has lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. The area's established nature is reflected by its population density of approximately 13099 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, the population is forecasted to increase by 6,271 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Recent construction comprises 75% detached houses and 25% attached dwellings, maintaining Caroline Springs' traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

Caroline Springs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

A total of 27 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. These projects are likely to influence local infrastructure and planning initiatives. Key projects include Modeina Estate, Masall Estate, Lake Caroline Master Plan & Activation Strategy, and WestWood Estate. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Caroline Springs exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Caroline Springs has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.0%.

As of June 2025, 12,733 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, 0.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation was 68.2%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area had a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employed only 6.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.0%, while the labour force grew by 5.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from Nov-25 showed Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 projected a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caroline Springs' employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, assuming stable population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Caroline Springs SA2 was $55,018 and average income was $64,621. This is comparable to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $61,708 and average income would be around $72,479 by that date. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, Caroline Springs SA2's household income ranked at the 74th percentile with weekly earnings of $2,133. Personal income was at the 51st percentile. Income brackets indicate that 37.2% of individuals (7,833 people) earned between $1,500 and $2,999 annually. This is consistent with broader trends in the area showing 32.8% in the same income category. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income in Caroline Springs SA2. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Caroline Springs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Caroline Springs, as per the latest Census evaluation, 89.3% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 10.6% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Caroline Springs stood at 25.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.4% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent in Caroline Springs was $401 compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Caroline Springs' median monthly mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Caroline Springs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.3% of all households, including 50.9% couples with children, 18.0% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.7%, with lone person households at 14.7% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

The educational profile of Caroline Springs exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.7%, exceeding the SA3 average of 24.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 21.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 28.9% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 17.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 35.6% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary, 10.9% in secondary, and 6.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Caroline Springs has 81 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that collectively facilitate 5,235 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 213 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 747 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 64 weekly trips per individual stop.

Caroline Springs's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Caroline Springs shows excellent health outcomes, with younger cohorts having a low prevalence of common health conditions.

Its private health cover rate stands at approximately 52%, higher than the average SA2 area's rate (~10,929 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.0%) and mental health issues (5.4%). A total of 77.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. In Caroline Springs, 11.2% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,364 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Caroline Springs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Caroline Springs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.1% of its population born overseas and 47.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Caroline Springs, making up 57.3% of people there, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 46.2%. Islam is overrepresented in Caroline Springs, comprising 8.0% of its population, higher than the regional average of 6.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.1%), Australian (12.9%), and English (11.7%). Notably, Maltese (6.3%) and Filipino (6.0%) populations are overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's averages of 5.1% and 3.4%, respectively, while Macedonian (3.0%) is also higher than the regional average of 1.8%.

Caroline Springs's population is younger than the national pattern

Caroline Springs's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37, which is slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Caroline Springs has a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (16.8%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 55-64 has grown from 9.3% to 11.0%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 14.7% to 16.2%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 has declined from 16.3% to 14.0%, and those aged 35-44 decreased from 16.2% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Caroline Springs's age profile. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 77%, adding 1,782 residents to reach a total of 4,107. Meanwhile, the 5-14 group is expected to decrease by 11 residents.