Caroline Springs
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Caroline Springs are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Caroline Springs' population, as of August 2025, is approximately 21,062. This figure represents an increase of 697 individuals, a 3.4% rise from the 2021 Census total of 20,365 people. The estimated resident population of 21,022 in June 2024, along with an additional 52 validated new addresses since the Census date, contributes to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 3,030 persons per square kilometer, placing Caroline Springs in the upper quartile compared to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration drove primary population growth, accounting for approximately 65.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to calculate population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in Caroline Springs' top quartile of national statistical areas. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 6,308 persons based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 29.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Caroline Springs is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Caroline Springs has received around 5 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 26 homes. As of FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, suggesting new supply has kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice. Developments average $678,000 in construction cost, indicating a focus on the premium market segment.

In FY-26, $34.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Caroline Springs has lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This level is also below the national average, suggesting an established area with potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes. With around 13099 people per dwelling approval, Caroline Springs reflects a mature market.

Population forecasts indicate an increase of 6,268 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Caroline Springs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 27 projects potentially impacting the region. Major initiatives comprise Modeina Estate, Masall Estate, Lake Caroline Master Plan & Activation Strategy, WestWood Estate, among others. The following details projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Caroline Springs exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Caroline Springs has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.1% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 5.0%.

As of June 2025, 12,733 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, 0.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation was 68.2%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Transport, postal & warehousing had an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employed only 6.4% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.0%, while labour force grew by 5.8%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data from Sep-25 showed Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs. The state's unemployment rate was 4.7%, slightly above the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 projected a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caroline Springs' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Caroline Springs is $55,018 and average income is $64,621. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Using Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 are approximately $60,580 (median) and $71,154 (average). The 2021 Census ranks Caroline Springs' household income at the 74th percentile ($2,133 weekly), with personal income at the 52nd percentile. Income brackets indicate that 37.2% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but disposable income ranks at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Caroline Springs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Caroline Springs' dwelling structures in 2016 comprised 89.3% houses and 10.6% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 25.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.4% and rented dwellings at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Caroline Springs was $1,950, while the median weekly rent was $401. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375 per week.

Caroline Springs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.3% of all households, consisting of 50.9% couples with children, 18.0% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for 16.7%, with lone person households at 14.7% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

The educational profile of Caroline Springs exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.7% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA3 area average of 24.3%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 21.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 17.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 35.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 12.0% in primary, 10.9% in secondary, and 6.1% in tertiary education. Caroline Springs has a robust network of 8 schools educating approximately 6,012 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1027) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 28.5 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 16.3, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Caroline Springs has 81 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that together facilitate 5,235 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 213 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 747 trips per day, which equates to approximately 64 weekly trips per individual stop.

Caroline Springs's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Caroline Springs' health outcomes show exceptional results, notably among younger cohorts who have a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover rate is approximately 52%, leading the average SA2 area with around 10,931 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.0%) and mental health issues (5.4%). About 77.2% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.7%. As of 2021, 11.2% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,365 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Caroline Springs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Caroline Springs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.1 percent of its population born overseas and 47.9 percent speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Caroline Springs, accounting for 57.3 percent of the population. However, Islam is overrepresented in Caroline Springs compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 8.0 percent versus 6.3 percent respectively.

The top three ancestry groups in Caroline Springs are Other (22.1%), Australian (12.9%), and English (11.7%). Notably, these percentages are lower than the regional averages for Australian and English ancestry. Certain ethnic groups are also notably overrepresented in Caroline Springs compared to Greater Melbourne: Maltese at 6.3 percent versus 5.1 percent, Filipino at 6.0 percent versus 3.4 percent, and Macedonian at 3.0 percent versus 1.8 percent.

Caroline Springs's population is younger than the national pattern

Caroline Springs has a median age of 36 years, which is nearly equal to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly below Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Caroline Springs has a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (16.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 55-64 has grown from 9.3% to 11.0%, while the 15-24 age group has increased from 14.7% to 16.2%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 16.3% to 14.0% and the 35-44 age group has dropped from 16.2% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest that Caroline Springs' age profile will change significantly. The 55-64 age cohort is projected to grow by 77%, adding 1,781 residents and reaching a total of 4,107. In contrast, the 5-14 age group is projected to decrease by 11 residents.