Cairnlea

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Cairnlea is around 10,042. This reflects a minimal increase from the 2021 Census figure of 10,038 people. The latest estimate by AreaSearch, based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date, is 10,045 residents. This results in a population density of approximately 2,277 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cairnlea has shown consistent growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.2%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed significantly to population growth in recent periods, accounting for approximately 66.0% of overall gains.

AreaSearch's projections for Cairnlea are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them to SA2 levels using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to these trends, Cairnlea is projected to have above median population growth, increasing by 17.9% from 2025 to 2041, adding approximately 1,793 persons to its total population.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Cairnlea has seen around 11 new homes approved each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, approximately 57 homes were approved, with another 6 approved so far in FY26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, potentially benefiting buyers due to increased demand for existing properties.

New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $633,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In FY26, there have been $102,000 in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Greater Melbourne where Cairnlea shows substantially reduced construction (63.0% below the regional average per person). This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining Cairnlea's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 1550 people per dwelling approval, Cairnlea reflects a highly mature market.

Future projections show Cairnlea adding 1,796 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Cairnlea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Deer Park Estate. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Cairnlea remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea's workforce is skilled with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.5%.

As of June 2025, 5,725 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Transport, postal & warehousing shows strong specialization with an employment share twice the regional level, while professional & technical has limited presence at 5.9% compared to the regional 10.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 5.5% and labour force by 5.8%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cairnlea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though these are illustrative extrapolations and do not account for local population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea's median income among taxpayers was $44,529 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $52,300 during the same period. For Greater Melbourne, these figures were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Cairnlea are approximately $49,944 (median) and $58,660 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, individual incomes lag at the 20th percentile ($658 weekly), while household income performs better at the 69th percentile. The largest segment of Cairnlea's income distribution comprises 37.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,775 residents). This pattern is similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this income range. Housing accounts for 13.7% of income, and strong earnings rank residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cairnlea's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea stood at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. The median weekly rent in Cairnlea was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.1% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has lower university qualification rates at 26.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 14.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education. Cairnlea's three schools have a combined enrollment of 820 students, serving distinct age groups with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1026). School places per 100 residents are lower at 8.2 compared to the regional average of 14.2, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note that where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 1,936 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average being located 360 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 276 trips across all routes, which amounts to approximately 129 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cairnlea's health outcomes data shows exceptional results, with younger age groups having a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 48% (~4,779 people) of Cairnlea's total population has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, affecting 7.4% and 5.7% of residents respectively. A higher proportion, 77.5%, declared themselves completely free from medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. Cairnlea has a lower percentage of seniors aged 65 and over at 13.9% (1,395 people) than Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea has a culturally diverse population, with 53.2% born overseas and 71.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairnlea, accounting for 42.3% of its population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented, comprising 20.5%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 12.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Vietnamese (26.7%), Other (18.9%), and Chinese (11.0%). Notably, Filipino (6.2%) and Maltese (3.8%) are overrepresented in Cairnlea compared to regional averages of 3.7% and 4.6%, respectively, while Macedonian representation is slightly higher at 2.9%.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years. This is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 (16.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 65-74 has grown from 7.2% to 9.0%, while the population aged 75-84 increased from 2.2% to 3.7%. Conversely, the population aged 35-44 has declined from 14.3% to 12.4%, and the population aged 5-14 dropped from 14.2% to 12.7%. Demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Cairnlea's age profile by 2041. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 42%, adding 523 residents to reach 1,779. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 54% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the populations aged 0-4 and 35-44 are expected to decline.