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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Cairnlea has an estimated 10,035 residents. That puts 2,276 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Following assessment of official ABS demographic updates for the surrounding region, alongside fresh address records validated by AreaSearch since the Census date, the suburb of Cairnlea has an estimated population of 10,035 as of May 2026. This indicates a minor contraction of 3 people (0.0%) from the 2021 Census, which counted 10,038 individuals. This adjustment is derived from the resident figure of 10,035, calculated by AreaSearch using the most recent ABS ERP release from June 2025 in combination with an additional 58 validated new addresses recorded after the Census. The resulting population density stands at 2,275 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national areas monitored by AreaSearch.
The -0.0% growth rate of the suburb of Cairnlea since the Census places it within 2.1 percentage points of the wider SA3 region (2.1%), showing competitive underlying expansion characteristics. Demographic gains in the area were largely propelled by international migration, which accounted for roughly 66.0% of all population increases in recent times. Projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year, are adopted by AreaSearch for each SA2 locality. In instances where SA2 data is unavailable, AreaSearch incorporates the 2023 Victoria State Government Regional/LGA projections, adjusted through weighted aggregation of population changes from the LGA to the SA2 level. Growth dynamics by age bracket from these aggregations are also applied across all regions for the period from 2032 to 2041. Looking at upcoming demographic shifts, the area is projected to experience population growth above the national median, expanding by 1,806 individuals by 2041 according to combined SA2 projections, which represents a total increase of 18.0% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
57 new dwellings have been approved in Cairnlea over the past five years, an average of 11 a year. That is 1.1 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 40, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Based on analysis of ABS building approvals mapped to local boundaries, the suburb of Cairnlea has averaged approximately 11 new residential approvals annually. This totals an estimated 57 approved homes during the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with 37 approvals recorded so far during FY-26. Given the local population contraction, construction volume has remained relative adequate to support buyers, with new residential projects averaging an expected construction cost of $633,000, suggesting developers are concentrating on high-end, premium housing options. Additionally, commercial approvals have reached $19.6 million during the current financial year, pointing to active business investment.
The suburb of Cairnlea displays significantly lower construction levels compared to Greater Melbourne, tracking 62.0% below the regional average per capita. Such constrained supply additions typically support values and demand for existing housing stock. This volume is also below the nationwide average, indicating a mature market cycle and potential planning restrictions. Furthermore, all recent building activity has been concentrated in detached houses, preserving the classic low-density character of the area and catering to families seeking space. With roughly 1544 residents per single dwelling approval, the market exhibits highly mature characteristics. Projections indicate that the suburb of Cairnlea will add 1,806 residents by 2041, based on the most recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. Under current construction trajectories, housing additions may not keep pace with population expansion, which could intensify competition among buyers and put upward pressure on residential values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Cairnlea
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Cairnlea. A further 68 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $19.5 billion. 11 are already under construction and 18 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, planning changes, and major works have a significant impact on neighborhood dynamics. AreaSearch has tracked 21 projects expected to influence the local area. Principal developments include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park, with detailed listings below outlining the most relevant schemes.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Cairnlea Estate Final Stage
The final stage of the Cairnlea urban renewal project by Development Victoria on a 41-hectare site at the former Albion Explosives Factory. The Minister for Planning and EPBC Act approvals were secured in early 2026. The project will deliver approximately 500 new homes, including a mix of lots, townhouses, and affordable housing options, alongside new green open spaces, tree-lined streets, and a playground. Essential site remediation works are currently underway, with the first phase expected to be complete by mid-2026.Homes and land lots are anticipated to be available for sale in 2027, with construction expected to commence late 2027 to 2028.
Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment
Residential development of the former Kangan Batman TAFE campus site on Military Road. Joint venture between Development Victoria and Frasers Property Australia to deliver 135 contemporary townhouses. The site was purchased after the TAFE campus closed in 2005.
Sunshine Health, Wellbeing and Education Precinct
The Sunshine Health, Wellbeing and Education Precinct is a 67 hectare health, education and employment precinct in St Albans centred around Sunshine Hospital, Joan Kirner Womens and Childrens Hospital, Ginifer Station and surrounding uses. The Victorian Planning Authority has prepared a draft plan with Brimbank City Council and Victorian Government agencies to guide land use change, new jobs, improved streetscapes and environmental upgrades. The precinct is a key western Melbourne growth area supported by major transport investment and future employment, housing and liveability improvements.
Amora Estate Cairnlea
Townhouse estate by Truesource featuring approximately 70 homes in a walkable location opposite Cairnlea Shopping Centre. Product mix includes 3 and 4 bedroom, double garage homes with contemporary finishes, engineered oak style flooring, and stone benchtops.
Deer Park Estate
A 1 billion AUD, 66-hectare industrial and logistics estate delivering up to 340,000sqm of prime warehouse space. Construction is underway with Asahi Beverages as the first anchor tenant. The precinct targets a 5 Star Green Star rating and features highbay warehousing, data centre potential, and strategic access to major transport routes.
Station Street Commercial Precinct
Development application for a mixed-use commercial precinct along Station Street including retail spaces, cafes, professional services, and upper-level office accommodation. The project aims to create a vibrant local commercial centre.
Ballarat Road Maintenance and Upgrade
Comprehensive road maintenance and upgrade project along Ballarat Road improving traffic flow, safety, and infrastructure resilience. Includes pavement renewal, drainage improvements, and intersection upgrades in the Deer Park area to support growing traffic demands.
Sunshine Energy Park
A 74-hectare urban regeneration project transforming the former Sunshine Landfill into a premier regional park within the Sunshine Priority Precinct. The vision includes eight interconnected precincts featuring a state-significant indoor stadium, sustainability hub, mountain bike trails, and an urban forest. As of 2026, the project is advancing through feasibility studies and business case development supported by a 500,000 AUD federal grant from the Urban Precincts and Partnerships Program.
5,536 residents of Cairnlea are employed, from a labour force of 5,812. Unemployment sits at 4.7%, with participation at 69.4%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.9% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 7,615, about 76% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce is characterized by high skill levels and diverse industry representation, featuring an unemployment rate of 4.7% and a 2.0% estimated increase in jobs over the past year, according to aggregated statistical data analyzed by AreaSearch. In March 2026, there were 5,536 employed residents, with the unemployment rate closely matching the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8% and labor force participation tracking near the metropolitan rate of 70.2%. Census records show that a moderate 21.3% of workers operated from home, though this figure reflects historical Covid-19 restrictions. The primary employment sectors for residents are retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.
The local workforce shows a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment proportion that is 2.0 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have a minor footprint, employing 5.9% of residents compared to 10.1% across the wider metropolitan area. Given the gap between the count of local working residents and local job positions recorded in the Census, this predominantly residential community appears to provide limited internal employment options. According to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from regional data, the recent 12-month period saw employment rise by 2.0% while the total labor force grew by 1.9%, keeping the unemployment rate steady. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded a 2.1% increase in employment and a 2.3% rise in the labor force, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. Future demand trends in the suburb of Cairnlea can be evaluated using national employment forecasts published by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce distribution to project future job patterns. Locally, employment is estimated to grow by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on applying these national sector-specific projections to the local industry mix, noting that this uses a basic weighting method and does not incorporate local population forecasts, even though national jobs are predicted to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years with large differences between sectors.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Cairnlea is $2,062 a week (about $107,000 a year), with median personal income at $658 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $44,529 a year against an average of $52,300. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Taxpayer income levels in the suburb of Cairnlea track below the national average based on the latest FY 2023 ATO figures aggregated by AreaSearch. The median income for local taxpayers is $44,529 and the average income is $52,300, compared to Greater Melbourne averages of $57,688 and $75,164. Adjusting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 are approximately $48,813 for median income and $57,331 for average income. Individual weekly earnings from the 2021 Census are relatively low at the 20th percentile ($658 weekly), whereas household incomes perform stronger at the 69th percentile.
The largest income bracket contains 37.6% of taxpayers earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (3,773 residents), which aligns with the regional distribution where 32.8% fall into this bracket. Housing costs consume 13.7% of income, and solid net earnings place residents in the 73rd percentile for disposable income.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Cairnlea had 2,808 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 89% detached houses and 4% apartments. 51% are owned with a mortgage, 16% rented and 34% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,883 a month. Rent absorbs 19.4% of household income here and mortgage repayments 21.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Residential stock in the suburb of Cairnlea at the last Census consisted of 88.6% detached houses and 11.4% alternative options such as townhouses and units, compared to Melbourne metro where houses make up 67.9% and other options constitute 32.1%. Outright home ownership levels in the suburb of Cairnlea stood at 33.7%, which is higher than the Melbourne metro average, with the remaining homes occupied by mortgage holders (50.8%) or tenants (15.5%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,883 was lower than the metropolitan Melbourne average of $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $400 compared to the metropolitan average of $390.
On a national level, local mortgage costs exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and rent levels are higher than the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Cairnlea counted 2,808 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 3.4 people each. 53% are couples with children, more than in 96% of areas nationally, against 18% couples without children. 11% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the vast majority of households at 87.1%, consisting of couples with children (52.7%), couples without children (17.8%), and single parents (15.3%). Non-family households constitute 12.9% of the local total, with single person households accounting for 10.7% and group housing representing 2.1%. The average household size of 3.4 individuals is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
26.3% of adults in Cairnlea hold a university qualification, including 20.7% with a bachelor degree and 4.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 14.6% hold a vocational qualification. 3 schools serve the area, with 820 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,026 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment levels present certain challenges, with university degree completion rates (26.3%) tracking significantly below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This highlights a clear opportunity for targeted local educational programs. Among residents aged 15 and over, Bachelor degrees represent the most common higher education qualification at 20.7%, with postgraduate degrees at 4.0% and graduate diplomas at 1.6%. Vocational education is held by 24.0% of the population, split between advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (14.6%). Active participation in studies is high, with 32.9% of the local population currently enrolled in education.
This group comprises 10.3% attending primary school, 10.3% in secondary school, and 6.7% studying at tertiary institutions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Cairnlea reaches 15 stops on 4 routes, timetabled for about 1,300 services a week. The typical home sits about 360 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.9 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Analysis of transit options shows 15 active bus stops operating in the suburb of Cairnlea. These stops are served by 4 distinct routes, which combine to support 1,279 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is rated favorably, with the average distance to the nearest stop being 361 meters. As a residential community, the majority of workers commute outside the area, with private vehicles remaining the primary mode of travel at 88%, and train travel accounting for 7%. Motor vehicle ownership stands at 1.9 vehicles per household, which is higher than the regional average, while 21.3% of workers worked from home according to the 2021 Census, a figure likely influenced by pandemic conditions.
Service frequency across all local routes averages 182 daily trips, which translates to roughly 85 weekly trips at each transit stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
77.5% of residents in Cairnlea report no long-term health condition, a healthier profile than 75% of areas nationally. 6.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 47.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.7 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Evaluations of health metrics indicate strong overall well-being in the suburb of Cairnlea, based on AreaSearch assessments of mortality and chronic disease data, which show a low incidence of common health issues among both younger and older cohorts. Private health insurance coverage is low, held by approximately 48% of the population (~4,776 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. Asthma and diabetes are the most prevalent chronic conditions locally, affecting 7.4% and 5.7% of the population, respectively. Conversely, 77.5% of residents reported having no long-term health conditions, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne, with the working-age population demonstrating particularly good health profiles.
Residents aged 65 and over make up 14.8% of the population (1,485 people), and senior health metrics are positive, matching broader national trends.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
53.2% of Cairnlea residents were born overseas and 71.8% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 96% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are Vietnamese (26.7%) and Chinese (11.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
The suburb of Cairnlea is highly multicultural, with 53.2% of residents born outside Australia and 71.8% using a language other than English at home. Christianity is the most common religious affiliation, represented by 42.3% of the community. There is a notable concentration of Buddhist residents, who account for 20.5% of the local population, significantly above the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%. Regarding parental countries of birth, Vietnamese ancestry is the most common at 26.7% of the population, substantially higher than the regional average of 1.9%. Other ancestry accounts for 18.9%, and Chinese ancestry accounts for 11.0%.
Notable concentrations also exist for Filipino ancestry at 6.2% of the population (compared to 1.3% regionally), Maltese ancestry at 3.8% (compared to 1.1% regionally), and Macedonian ancestry at 2.9% (compared to 0.7% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Cairnlea is 37. That is 1 year older than at the 2021 Census. 29.2% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of residents is 37, matching the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and sitting close to the national average of 38 years. The 15 - 24 age bracket is well represented at 16.0% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 35 - 44 cohort is less common at 12.0%. Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 grew from 7.2% to 9.5%, and the 75 to 84 cohort rose from 2.2% to 4.2%. In contrast, the 35 to 44 demographic fell from 14.3% to 12.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group decreased from 14.2% to 12.3%.
Projections for 2041 indicate shifts in the local age profile, led by a 36% increase in the 55 to 64 demographic (an addition of 475 people), growing from 1,304 to 1,780, while the cohorts aged 35 to 44 and 5 to 14 are expected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Cairnlea
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jun 2026 2 months ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jun 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 58 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (10,038 at the 2021 Census → 10,035 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20441). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.