Cairnlea

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Cairnlea is around 10,035 people. This figure reflects a decrease of 3 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,038 people. The current population was inferred from AreaSearch's examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,275 persons per square kilometer, which is above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Cairnlea's population growth rate of -0.0% since the census places it within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Cairnlea is expected to increase by 1,806 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 18.0% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Cairnlea had around 11 new homes approved annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 57 homes were approved, with another 10 approved in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas.

Average construction cost of new homes is $633,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. This year, there have been $19.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne and national averages, Cairnlea has significantly reduced construction levels (62.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties due to constrained new construction. Recent building activity consists solely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. With around 1550 people per dwelling approval, Cairnlea reflects a highly mature market.

Future projections estimate Cairnlea adding 1,806 residents by 2041 at current development rates, potentially leading to housing supply struggles and increased buyer competition, supporting price increases.

Cairnlea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Cairnlea remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 4.8% in December 2025, aligning with Greater Melbourne's rate. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%.

As of that date, 5,563 residents were employed. A moderate 21.3% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. The area shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share twice the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have a limited presence at 5.9% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the working population count versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 3.7% while labour force grew by 4.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. Greater Melbourne experienced lower growth rates during this period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest total employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cairnlea's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Cairnlea's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Cairnlea is $44,529 and the average income stands at $52,300. These figures compare to those of Greater Melbourne, which are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cairnlea would be approximately $48,813 (median) and $57,331 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 income data, individual incomes in Cairnlea lag at the 20th percentile ($658 weekly), while household income performs better at the 69th percentile. The largest segment of income distribution comprises 37.6% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,773 residents). This pattern is similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this income range. Housing accounts for 13.7% of income, and strong earnings rank residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cairnlea's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea was at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Cairnlea was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,883 and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.1% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 14.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 active public transport stops serving mixed bus routes. These stops are covered by four different routes offering a total of 1,279 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 361 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily using cars at an 88% rate and trains at 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 21.3% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 182 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cairnlea. AreaSearch's assessment indicates low prevalence of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is found to be very low at approximately 48% of the total population, which is around 4,776 people.

This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne, with a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 7.4 and 5.7% of residents respectively. 77.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show notably healthy outcomes with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.8% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 1,485 people. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea has one of the most culturally diverse populations in the country, with 53.2% of its residents born overseas and 71.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairnlea, accounting for 42.3% of the population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented, comprising 20.5%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups in Cairnlea are Vietnamese (26.7%), Other (18.9%), and Chinese (11.0%). There are also notable differences in the representation of Filipino (6.2% vs regional 1.3%), Maltese (3.8% vs 1.1%), and Macedonian (2.9% vs 0.7%) ethnic groups compared to the Greater Melbourne averages.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and remaining comparable to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group constitutes 16.0% of Cairnlea's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort makes up 12.0%, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and the present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 7.2% to 9.5%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 2.2% to 4.2%. During this period, the 35-44 cohort declined from 14.3% to 12.0%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 14.2% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Cairnlea's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is projected to grow by 36%, adding 475 people and reaching a total of 1,780 from its current figure of 1,304. Meanwhile, both the 35-44 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.