Cairnlea

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Cairnlea is around 10,045 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 10,038 people, a change inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate using latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. The population density is approximately 2,277 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cairnlea has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.2%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed around 66.0% to overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted employing weighted aggregation method for areas not covered by the former data.

Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, an above median population growth is projected for Cairnlea, with an expected increase of 1,785 persons, reflecting a total increase of 17.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Cairnlea had around 11 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 57 homes were approved, with 8 more in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas.

New homes are targeted at the premium market segment, with an average construction cost value of $633,000. This year, there have been $19.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea has significantly reduced construction levels (63.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. Recent building activity consists solely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

With around 1550 people per dwelling approval, Cairnlea reflects a highly mature market. Future projections estimate Cairnlea adding 1,785 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Cairnlea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Cairnlea remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea's workforce is skilled with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.8% in December 2025, matching Greater Melbourne's rate. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%.

As of December 2025, 5,563 residents were employed. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. A moderate 21.3% of residents worked from home. Key industries included retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.

The area showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share double the regional level. However, professional & technical services had limited presence at 5.9%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 3.7% while labour force grew by 4.3%, raising unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand in Cairnlea. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industries. Applying these projections to Cairnlea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Cairnlea had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended 30 June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Cairnlea was $44,529 and the average income stood at $52,300. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's median income was $57,688 and average income was $75,164. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cairnlea would be approximately $48,203 (median) and $56,615 (average) as of September 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, individual incomes in Cairnlea lagged at the 20th percentile with a weekly income of $658, while household income performed better at the 69th percentile. The largest segment of income distribution comprised 37.6% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which included 3,776 residents. This pattern was similar to regional levels where 32.8% of residents fell within this income range. Housing expenses accounted for 13.7% of income, placing Cairnlea residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At Cairnlea's latest Census evaluation, dwelling structures consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea stood at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Cairnlea was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.1% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas making up 9.4% and certificates 14.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by four distinct routes, facilitating a total of 1,279 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average situated 361 metres from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Cairnlea residents commute externally - cars being the primary mode at 88%, while trains account for 7%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 21.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 182 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cairnlea based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover was found to be very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,781 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and diabetes, impacting 7.4 and 5.7% of residents respectively. 77.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,496 people). Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea has one of the highest cultural diversities in the country, with 53.2% of its population born overseas and 71.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairnlea, accounting for 42.3% of people. However, Buddhism stands out as being significantly overrepresented, comprising 20.5% of the population compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry, Vietnamese are the largest group at 26.7%, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 1.9%. The second and third largest groups are 'Other' at 18.9% and Chinese at 11.0%. Notably, Filipino (6.2%), Maltese (3.8%), and Macedonian (2.9%) ethnicities are also overrepresented compared to the regional averages of 1.3%, 1.1%, and 0.7% respectively.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age in 2021 was 37 years, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and being comparable to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group constituted 16.2% of Cairnlea's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. However, the 35-44 cohort made up 11.9%, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 65 to 74 age group increased from 7.2% to 9.5%, and the 75 to 84 cohort grew from 2.2% to 4.2%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort decreased from 14.3% to 11.9%, and the 5 to 14 group fell from 14.2% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Cairnlea's age structure. The 55 to 64 group is expected to grow by 35%, reaching 1,782 people from the previous 1,315. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 51% of projected growth. In contrast, the 35 to 44 and 5 to 14 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.