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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Cairnlea has an estimated 10,035 residents. That puts 2,276 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of Aug 2026, the suburb of Cairnlea has an estimated resident population of roughly 10,035, drawing on AreaSearch analysis of ABS regional updates alongside post-Census validated addresses. Compared to the 10,038 residents documented in the 2021 Census, this indicates a slight reduction of 3 people (0.0%). AreaSearch derived this 10,035 count by evaluating the latest ABS ERP release from June 2025 together with 59 newly validated addresses recorded since Census night. Demographic concentration stands at 2,275 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations evaluated by AreaSearch.
With growth sitting at -0.0% post-census, the suburb of Cairnlea trails the broader SA3 area (2.2%) by 2.2 percentage points, demonstrating solid growth fundamentals. International migration served as the core driver of local expansion, accounting for roughly 66.0% of recent population additions. Projections for SA2 districts utilise ABS/Geoscience Australia figures published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, while locations omitted from that release incorporate 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA datasets adjusted by weighting LGA population trends down to SA2 zones. From 2032 to 2041, age-specific growth trajectories from these models are similarly applied. Looking forward, the suburb of Cairnlea is forecast to exceed the national median for statistical areas, expanding by 1,765 persons to 2041 via aggregated SA2 projections, representing an overall increase of 17.6% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
57 new dwellings have been approved in Cairnlea over the past five years, an average of 11 a year. That is 1.8 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 39, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
ABS building approval figures compiled by AreaSearch show that Cairnlea averages approximately 11 residential approvals annually, amounting to 57 approved dwellings across the last 5 financial years. Within FY-25 to date, 39 approvals have been logged. Amid declining population counts, residential additions have comfortably satisfied local demand, maintaining balanced conditions and favorable selection for prospective buyers, with newly constructed residences averaging $410,000 in expected building costs in accordance with broader regional patterns. Concurrently, $19.6 million across commercial approvals has been registered during this financial year, pointing to steady non-residential development.
Per capita residential construction in Cairnlea tracks at roughly 58% of the Greater Melbourne level, ranking in the 32nd percentile nationally; this constrained pipeline reinforces demand for established properties, notwithstanding recent upticks in building activity. This below-average national volume illustrates the mature state of the suburb and points to possible planning constraints. Contemporary development consists of 72.0% detached houses alongside 28.0% medium and high-density dwellings, preserving the suburban character of spacious family homes. Compared to the current stock where houses make up 89.0%, this shift reflects diminishing greenfield parcels as well as evolving lifestyle preferences that call for varied, cost-effective dwelling formats. There are approximately 446 people per dwelling approval, underscoring an established residential setting. According to the latest quarterly AreaSearch projection, Cairnlea is anticipated to add 1,765 residents by 2041. Should current construction tempos persist, housing supply could find it difficult to keep pace with demographic expansion, potentially intensifying competition among purchasers and placing upward pressure on property values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Cairnlea
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Cairnlea. A further 68 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $19.5 billion. 10 are already under construction and 18 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Infrastructure investments, major developments, and strategic urban planning exert a decisive influence on local economic outcomes. AreaSearch has logged 21 key initiatives expected to impact the surrounding district. Notable developments include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park, with key details summarized below.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Cairnlea Estate Final Stage
The final stage of the Cairnlea urban renewal project by Development Victoria on a 41-hectare site at the former Albion Explosives Factory. The Minister for Planning and EPBC Act approvals were secured in early 2026. The project will deliver approximately 500 new homes, including a mix of lots, townhouses, and affordable housing options, alongside new green open spaces, tree-lined streets, and a playground. Essential site remediation works are currently underway, with the first phase expected to be complete by mid-2026.Homes and land lots are anticipated to be available for sale in 2027, with construction expected to commence late 2027 to 2028.
Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment
Residential development of the former Kangan Batman TAFE campus site on Military Road. Joint venture between Development Victoria and Frasers Property Australia to deliver 135 contemporary townhouses. The site was purchased after the TAFE campus closed in 2005.
Sunshine Health, Wellbeing and Education Precinct
The Sunshine Health, Wellbeing and Education Precinct is a 67 hectare health, education and employment precinct in St Albans centred around Sunshine Hospital, Joan Kirner Womens and Childrens Hospital, Ginifer Station and surrounding uses. The Victorian Planning Authority has prepared a draft plan with Brimbank City Council and Victorian Government agencies to guide land use change, new jobs, improved streetscapes and environmental upgrades. The precinct is a key western Melbourne growth area supported by major transport investment and future employment, housing and liveability improvements.
Amora Estate Cairnlea
Townhouse estate by Truesource featuring approximately 70 homes in a walkable location opposite Cairnlea Shopping Centre. Product mix includes 3 and 4 bedroom, double garage homes with contemporary finishes, engineered oak style flooring, and stone benchtops.
Deer Park Estate
A 1 billion AUD, 66-hectare industrial and logistics estate delivering up to 340,000sqm of prime warehouse space. Construction is underway with Asahi Beverages as the first anchor tenant. The precinct targets a 5 Star Green Star rating and features highbay warehousing, data centre potential, and strategic access to major transport routes.
Station Street Commercial Precinct
Development application for a mixed-use commercial precinct along Station Street including retail spaces, cafes, professional services, and upper-level office accommodation. The project aims to create a vibrant local commercial centre.
Ballarat Road Maintenance and Upgrade
Comprehensive road maintenance and upgrade project along Ballarat Road improving traffic flow, safety, and infrastructure resilience. Includes pavement renewal, drainage improvements, and intersection upgrades in the Deer Park area to support growing traffic demands.
Sunshine Energy Park
A 74-hectare urban regeneration project transforming the former Sunshine Landfill into a premier regional park within the Sunshine Priority Precinct. The vision includes eight interconnected precincts featuring a state-significant indoor stadium, sustainability hub, mountain bike trails, and an urban forest. As of 2026, the project is advancing through feasibility studies and business case development supported by a 500,000 AUD federal grant from the Urban Precincts and Partnerships Program.
5,536 residents of Cairnlea are employed, from a labour force of 5,812. Unemployment sits at 4.7%, with participation at 69.4%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.9% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 7,615, about 76% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
AreaSearch statistical aggregations highlight that Cairnlea possesses a qualified talent pool across diverse industries, featuring an unemployment rate of 4.7% and annual employment growth estimated at 2.0%. There were 5,536 employed locals recorded as of March 2026, matching Greater Melbourne's 4.8% jobless rate, while workforce engagement closely aligns with the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 70.1%. Census records show 21.3% of workers performed their duties from home, though this figure was influenced by Covid-19 restrictions. The primary sectors employing local residents are retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.
A pronounced regional specialization occurs in transport, postal & warehousing, where local employment concentration is 2.0 times the broader benchmark. By contrast, professional & technical roles are underrepresented, comprising 5.9% locally compared to 10.1% across the region. As reflected in the comparison between resident workers and local job counts at the Census, the primarily residential landscape generates fewer workplace opportunities within the immediate boundaries. Over the past 12-month period, aggregated ABS and SALM figures indicate a 2.0% rise in employed residents and a 1.9% expansion of the labor pool, holding local unemployment steady. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, which recorded a 2.1% increase in employment, a 2.3% gain in the labor force, and a 0.2 percentage points lift in joblessness. National employment outlooks from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide additional context on future local workforce trends across five and ten-year horizons. Across Australia, workforce numbers are projected to expand by 6.6% across five years and 13.7% across ten years, with performance varying widely by industry. When local industry weightings are applied to these outlooks, Cairnlea's employment base is projected to increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, representing an illustrative weighted extrapolation that excludes localized population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Cairnlea is $2,062 a week (about $107,000 a year), with median personal income at $658 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $44,529 a year against an average of $52,300. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Taxation records aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 place individual earnings in the suburb of Cairnlea below the national average. Local taxpayers recorded a median income of $44,529 and an average income of $52,300, contrasting with Greater Melbourne benchmarks of $57,688 and $75,164. Factoring in the 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, updated estimates suggest figures near $48,813 (median) and $57,331 (average) as of March 2026. At the Census, individual weekly earnings positioned residents at the 20th percentile ($658 weekly), whereas household earnings reached the 69th percentile.
In terms of earnings distribution, 37.6% of residents (3,773 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 cohort, aligning with the broader region where 32.8% sit in this category. Housing costs represent 13.7% of total earnings, leaving local purchasing power at the 73rd percentile for disposable funds.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Cairnlea had 2,808 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 89% detached houses and 4% apartments. 51% are owned with a mortgage, 16% rented and 34% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,883 a month. Rent absorbs 19.4% of household income here and mortgage repayments 21.1%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Census records show that Cairnlea's residential footprint consisted of 88.6% separate houses and 11.4% alternative dwellings, such as apartments, semi-detached, and 'other' units, compared against 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings across Melbourne metro. Outright property ownership sat higher than the metropolitan benchmark at 33.7%, alongside 50.8% of properties under a mortgage and 15.5% occupied by tenants. Median monthly mortgage expenses were $1,883, lower than the Melbourne metro figure of $2,000, while median weekly rent was $400, surpassing the metropolitan rate of $390. Across Australia, local mortgage commitments surpass the national average of $1,863, and rents exceed the countrywide standard of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Cairnlea counted 2,808 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 3.4 people each. 53% are couples with children, more than in 96% of areas nationally, against 18% couples without children. 11% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up 87.1% of all local households, divided between couples with children at 52.7%, childless couples at 17.8%, and single parent households at 15.3%. The remaining 12.9% comprises non-family arrangements, including lone person households at 10.7% and group housing at 2.1%. With a median household size of 3.4 people, occupancy levels exceed the Greater Melbourne standard of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
26.3% of adults in Cairnlea hold a university qualification, including 20.7% with a bachelor degree and 4.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 14.6% hold a vocational qualification. 3 schools serve the area, with 820 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,026 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary educational attainment presents an area for progress, as 26.3% of residents hold university qualifications compared to 37.0% across Greater Melbourne, outlining potential scope for educational development programs. Bachelor degrees form the largest segment at 20.7%, with postgraduate qualifications at 4.0% and graduate diplomas at 1.6%. Technical qualifications among people aged 15+ account for 24.0%, split between certificates (14.6%) and advanced diplomas (9.4%). Participation in study is robust, with 32.9% of the local population engaged in academic programs. This cohort is distributed across primary education (10.3%), secondary education (10.3%), and tertiary courses (6.7%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Cairnlea reaches 15 stops on 4 routes, timetabled for about 1,000 services a week. The typical home sits about 360 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.9 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport connectivity in the suburb of Cairnlea includes 15 active bus stops across 4 individual routes, generating 1,017 weekly passenger trips. Access to the transit network is favorable, with an average distance of 361 meters from residences to the nearest stop. Given the predominantly residential setting, outbound commuting is typical, with private motor vehicles accounting for 88% of travel and train journeys making up 7%. Household vehicle ownership stands at 1.9 per dwelling, outstripping the regional benchmark. Working from home was observed among 21.3% of the working population at the 2021 Census during a period shaped by COVID-19.
Transit services provide an average of 145 departures daily across the network, translating to roughly 67 weekly trips for each stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
77.5% of residents in Cairnlea report no long-term health condition, a healthier profile than 75% of areas nationally. 6.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 47.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.7 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health assessments by AreaSearch reveal favorable vitality throughout Cairnlea across mortality statistics and chronic health patterns, with common conditions showing low incidence among younger and older demographics alike. Private medical coverage is modest, held by roughly 48% of residents (~4,776 people), falling below the 56.7% reported for Greater Melbourne and the nationwide benchmark of 55.7%. Asthma and diabetes represent the most prevalent chronic illnesses in the community, diagnosed in 7.4 and 5.7% of the population respectively, while 77.5% of residents reported having no medical ailments at all, outpacing the 72.6% benchmark for Greater Melbourne.
The working-age population exhibits strong overall health with minimal chronic issues. Residents aged 65 and over total 1,455 people (14.5%), with senior health indicators outperforming typical standards and tracking closely with general population rankings nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
53.2% of Cairnlea residents were born overseas and 71.8% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 96% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are Vietnamese (26.7%) and Chinese (11.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity is pronounced in Cairnlea, where 53.2% of the community was born abroad and 71.8% use a language other than English at home. Christianity represents the leading faith at 42.3% of residents. A particularly prominent demographic feature is the Buddhist community, comprising 20.5% of the local population, significantly above the Greater Melbourne figure of 4.2%. Regarding parental country of birth, the three most common ancestral backgrounds in Cairnlea are Vietnamese at 26.7% (well above the 1.9% regional rate), Other at 18.9%, and Chinese at 11.0%. Other distinct demographic representations include Filipino ancestry at 6.2% (compared to 1.3% regionally), Maltese at 3.8% (versus 1.1%), and Macedonian at 2.9% (versus 0.7%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Cairnlea is 37. That is 1 year older than at the 2021 Census. 29.6% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Demographic age distributions in the suburb of Cairnlea align closely with Greater Melbourne, showing a maximum divergence of only 6.3 percentage points across cohorts. As of August 2026, AreaSearch calculates a median age of 37, advancing from 36 at the 2021 Census and matching Greater Melbourne's 37 from that census period. The most substantial shift since the Census occurred in the 65+ age bracket, expanding from 10.3% to an estimated 14.5% of residents. Projections to 2041 indicate that older residents will constitute the bulk of population gains, expanding by 886 residents (61%) to reach 2,341.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Cairnlea
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jun 2026 4 months ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jun 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 59 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (10,038 at the 2021 Census → 10,035 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20441). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.