Cairnlea

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, AreaSearch estimates Cairnlea's population at around 10,045 people. This reflects a growth of 7 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,038. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's examination of latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,277 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cairnlea has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.2%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Cairnlea statistical area (Lv2) is expected to increase by 1,793 persons to reach a total population of around 11,838 by 2041. This reflects an overall increase of approximately 17.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Cairnlea had approximately 11 new homes approved annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, around 57 homes were approved, with another 7 approved in FY-26. Despite population decline, development activity has been relatively adequate.

Average construction value is $633,000, indicating developers target premium market segments. Commercial approvals totalled $19.6 million in FY-26, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea's new construction is 63.0% below the regional average per person, typically reinforcing demand and pricing for existing properties. Recent building activity consists solely of detached dwellings, maintaining Cairnlea's suburban character focused on family homes. With around 1550 people per dwelling approval, it reflects a highly mature market.

Future projections estimate Cairnlea will add 1,793 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Cairnlea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Cairnlea remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate is 4.6%, and it experienced an estimated employment growth of 4.9% over the past year according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 5,578 residents in work. The unemployment rate aligns with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%, and workforce participation is broadly similar at 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. However, the area shows particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical has limited presence with 5.9% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 4.9% while labour force grew by 5.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a similar 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 12.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cairnlea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Cairnlea's median income among taxpayers was $44,529 and average income stood at $52,300 in financial year 2023. This compares to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cairnlea would be approximately $48,203 (median) and $56,615 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, individual incomes were at the 20th percentile ($658 weekly), while household income was at the 69th percentile. The largest segment of Cairnlea's income distribution comprised 37.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,776 residents). Housing accounted for 13.7% of income and strong earnings ranked residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cairnlea's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea was at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, above the Melbourne metro average of $1,700. The median weekly rent in Cairnlea was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.1% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.7% and group households at 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 14.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There are four different bus routes serving these stops, together offering 1,279 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Cairnlea is rated as good, with residents on average being located 361 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 182 bus trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cairnlea's health outcomes show exceptional results, notably with younger age groups having a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 48% (~4,781 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.4%) and diabetes (5.7%), while 77.5% report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. Cairnlea has 13.9% (1,396 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention compared to the broader population.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea has a population where 53.2% were born overseas, with 71.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Cairnlea, with 42.3%. Buddhism is significantly higher here compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 12.5%, making up 20.5% of Cairnlea's population.

The top three ancestral groups are Vietnamese (26.7%), Other (18.9%), and Chinese (11.0%). Notably, Filipino (6.2%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 3.7%. Maltese at 3.8% and Macedonian at 2.9% also show notable differences from their respective regional averages of 4.6% and 2.5%.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cairnlea has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (16.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population of those aged 65-74 has grown from 7.2% to 9.0%, while the percentage of those aged 75-84 has increased from 2.2% to 3.7%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 35-44 has decreased from 14.3% to 12.4%, and the percentage of those aged 5-14 has dropped from 14.2% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Cairnlea's age profile will significantly evolve. The cohort of residents aged 55-64 is projected to grow by 42%, adding 523 residents to reach a total of 1,779. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 54% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the cohorts aged 0-4 and 35-44 are expected to experience population declines.