Cairnlea

Population growth drivers in Cairnlea are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of Cairnlea as of Feb 2026 is around 10,045. This reflects an increase of 7 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,038. The current population was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate following examination of ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,277 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cairnlea has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.2%, outpacing the SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth is expected for the suburb of Cairnlea, with a projected increase of 1,793 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 17.9% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cairnlea is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Cairnlea has seen approximately 11 new homes approved each year. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 57 homes were approved, with another 7 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $633,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment. This financial year has seen $19.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne and nationally, Cairnlea shows reduced construction activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. Recent building activity consists solely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes. With around 1550 people per dwelling approval, Cairnlea reflects a highly mature market.

Future projections estimate an increase of 1,793 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Cairnlea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 21 such projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable among these are Cairnlea Estate Final Stage, Deer Park Dome Redevelopment, Avondale Heights - Former TAFE Campus Redevelopment, and Sunshine Energy Park. The following list provides details on those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Cairnlea remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cairnlea's workforce comprises skilled individuals with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate in the area was 4.6% as of September 2025, closely aligned with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of that date, 5,578 residents were employed. Workforce participation in Cairnlea was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's figure of 71.0%. According to Census responses, 21.3% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.

Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has a strong presence with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have limited representation with 5.9% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.9% while labour force grew by 5.3%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, also leading to a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 provide insights into potential future demand within Cairnlea. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cairnlea's employment mix indicates local employment could increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Cairnlea's median income among taxpayers was $44,529 and average income stood at $52,300 in financial year 2023. These figures are below Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $48,203 (median) and $56,615 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, individual incomes were at the 20th percentile ($658 weekly), while household incomes performed better at the 69th percentile. The largest segment of income distribution comprised 37.6% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,776 residents). This pattern is similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing accounts for 13.7% of income, ranking residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income.

Cairnlea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cairnlea's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairnlea was at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Cairnlea was $400, higher than the national average of $375 but below Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cairnlea's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Cairnlea features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.1% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.9%, with lone person households at 10.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Cairnlea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.0% of qualifications among those aged 15+. Advanced diplomas make up 9.4% while certificates represent 14.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cairnlea has 15 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by four routes offering a total of 1,279 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 361 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, primarily using cars (88%), while 7% use trains. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 21.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Daily service frequency averages 182 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cairnlea's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows strong health performance across Cairnlea based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 48% of the total population has private health cover (~4,781 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, it stands at 55.7%. Asthma and diabetes are the most common medical conditions in Cairnlea, affecting 7.4 and 5.7% of residents respectively. 77.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,496 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Cairnlea is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairnlea has a population where 53.2% were born overseas and 71.8% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairnlea, with 42.3% of its population adhering to it. Buddhism, however, is significantly overrepresented in Cairnlea compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 20.5% versus the regional average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups based on country of birth of parents are Vietnamese (26.7%), Other (18.9%), and Chinese (11.0%). Notably, Filipino (6.2%) Maltese (3.8%) and Macedonian (2.9%) ethnicities are also overrepresented in Cairnlea compared to their regional averages of 1.3%, 1.1% and 0.7% respectively.

Cairnlea's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Cairnlea's median age in 2021 was 37 years, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely aligning with Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group constituted 16.2% of Cairnlea's population in 2021, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort made up 12.0%, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and the present day, the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 7.2% to 9.5% of Cairnlea's population, while the 75 to 84 cohort rose from 2.2% to 4.2%. During this period, the 35 to 44 cohort decreased from 14.3% to 12.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group fell from 14.2% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Cairnlea's age structure. The 55 to 64 age group is expected to grow by 35%, reaching 1,779 people from the previous figure of 1,315. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are projected to comprise 51% of Cairnlea's population growth. Conversely, the 35 to 44 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.