Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Keilor Downs' population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, stands at approximately 13,066 as of November 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 16 people from the 2021 Census total of 13,082, indicating a 0.1% decline since that date. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 13,068 in June 2024 and the addition of 68 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,705 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. While Keilor Downs experienced a decline, the broader SA3 area saw growth of 2.6%, indicating divergent trends within the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.9% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends suggest lower quartile growth, with Keilor Downs expected to expand by 488 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 3.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keilor Downs, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor Downs has averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. A total of 169 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 55 approved so far in FY26. Despite a falling population, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $290,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. This financial year has seen $61.8 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs has 13.0% less new development per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 51st percentile of areas assessed. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% townhouses or apartments, demonstrating a shift towards compact living that attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

This change is notable compared to the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (87.0%). With around 482 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs exhibits a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Keilor Downs is projected to gain 490 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 24 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Rosemont Townhomes, 20 Packard Street Townhouses, and Keilor Downs Urban Design Framework. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Keilor Downs has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 6.1% as of September 2025, and an estimated employment growth of 4.3% over the past year. The area has 6,613 residents in work while its unemployment rate is 1.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation lags significantly at 55.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence with only 6.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.3%, and labour force increased by 5.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, the labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from November 25 shows that Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year (adding 41,950 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a potential future demand within Keilor Downs, projecting national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Keilor Downs SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $49,989. The average income stood at $60,197 during the same period. These figures are below those of Greater Melbourne, which had median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively in financial year 2022. Based on a 12.16% growth rate from the Wage Price Index since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes for Keilor Downs SA2 would be approximately $56,068 (median) and $67,517 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, individual incomes in Keilor Downs SA2 lag at the 12th percentile ($604 weekly), while household income performs better at the 38th percentile. The predominant income cohort spans 32.2% of locals (4,207 people) in the $1,500 - $2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.0% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 42nd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Keilor Downs, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.3% houses and 12.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs stood at 47.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. The median weekly rent in Keilor Downs was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Keilor Downs' median monthly mortgage repayment is lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and its median weekly rent is less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.1% of all households, including 35.6% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households consist of the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households making up 1.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.9.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (21.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.1%, with 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Downs has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1,496 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 195 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 213 daily trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Keilor Downs is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Keilor Downs faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6467 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.2 and 7.6% of residents respectively. 68.3% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.5% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016 data, 24.3% of Keilor Downs residents are aged 65 and over (3180 people), which is higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors in Keilor Downs are above average, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.2% of its population born overseas and 49.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor Downs, comprising 62.0% of the population. However, Buddhism is less prevalent in Keilor Downs than the Greater Melbourne average, making up only 6.4%.

The top three ancestry groups in Keilor Downs are Other (15.8%), Australian (13.4%), and English (11.1%). Notably, Maltese (5.4% vs regional 4.6%), Macedonian (3.9% vs 2.5%), and Croatian (3.7% vs 2.2%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Keilor Downs compared to the Greater Melbourne average.

Keilor Downs's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Keilor Downs is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group constitutes 14.0% of the population in Keilor Downs, compared to a lower percentage in Greater Melbourne. Meanwhile, the 35-44 age group makes up 11.9%, which is less than the proportion in Greater Melbourne. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.9% to 7.8%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has decreased from 14.2% to 13.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Keilor Downs. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 54%, reaching 1,576 people from the current figure of 1,024. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 86% of total population growth in Keilor Downs. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.