Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Keilor Downs' population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, stood at approximately 13,088 by May 2026. This figure represents a marginal increase of 6 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 13,082. The growth is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 13,080 in June 2025 and an additional 68 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a population density of 1,708 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor Downs' 0.0% growth since census places it within 2.1 percentage points of its SA3 area (2.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration drove population growth, contributing approximately 77.4% of overall gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future trends suggest a population increase just below the national median by 2041, with an expected expansion of 488 persons based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 3.7% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keilor Downs, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor Downs averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, with a total of 169 homes approved between FY21 and FY25. As of FY26, 10 dwellings have been approved. Despite a decline in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $290,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY26, $61.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating robust local business investment. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs has 13.0% less new development per person, placing it among the 51st percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, suggesting possible planning constraints due to the area's maturity and below-average national building activity levels. New building activity in Keilor Downs consists of 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 87.0% houses. This change is likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With approximately 482 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs indicates a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to gain 480 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Twenty-four infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Rosemont Townhomes, Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Keilor Downs has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 6.2% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.2%.

In December 2025, 6,599 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Keilor Downs was 63.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 23.1% of residents worked from home as of December 2025. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area had a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services had limited presence, with only 6.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.2%, while labour force grew by 4.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor Downs's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Keilor Downs SA2's median income among taxpayers was $53,638 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $63,252 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Greater Melbourne, which were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By March 2026, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62%, estimated median income would be approximately $58,798 and average income would be around $69,337. According to the 2021 Census, individual incomes were at the 12th percentile ($604 weekly), while household incomes performed better at the 38th percentile. The predominant income cohort in Keilor Downs was 32.2% of locals (4,214 people) with incomes between $1,500 and $2,999 per week. This pattern is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% of residents fall within this income range. Despite manageable housing costs with 87.0% retained, disposable income in Keilor Downs was below average at the 42nd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor Downs' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.3% houses and 12.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs was at 47.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.1% of all households, including 35.6% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households making up 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate of 21.9%, as of a recent report, is significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This discrepancy presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives in the area. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 15.8% of residents holding them, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.1%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15 and above possessing them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (21.1%).

Educational participation is notably high in the area, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, as per the latest data. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Downs has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 929 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 195 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents in this primarily residential area commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport, used by 90% of residents, while train usage stands at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.1% of Keilor Downs' residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 132 trips per day, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor Downs's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data for Keilor Downs shows positive outcomes overall. Mortality rates and health conditions align with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,609 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.2%) and asthma (7.6%). 68.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among working-age residents are typical. Keilor Downs has 24.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,226 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Senior health outcomes are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.2% of its population born overseas and 49.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor Downs, making up 62.0% of the population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented, comprising 6.4% compared to the regional average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (15.8%), Australian (13.4%), and English (11.1%), which is lower than the regional average of 20.1%. Specifically, Maltese (5.4%) and Macedonian (3.9%) are overrepresented compared to their respective regional averages of 1.1% and 0.7%, while Croatian is also notably higher at 3.7% versus the region's 0.7%.

Keilor Downs's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Keilor Downs is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 13.8% of the population in Keilor Downs, compared to a lower percentage in Greater Melbourne. Conversely, the 35-44 age group makes up 11.9%, which is less prevalent than in Greater Melbourne. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.9% to 8.2% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 14.2% to 12.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes in Keilor Downs. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 41%, reaching 1,523 people from the current 1,077. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 80% of total population growth, indicating an aging demographic trend in the area. Conversely, the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.