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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Keilor Downs has an estimated 13,088 residents. That puts 1,709 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to investigations by AreaSearch, Keilor Downs has a population of approximately 13,088 as of May 2026. This represents an increase of 6 residents (0.0%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 13,082 individuals. The estimation is derived from the ABS estimated resident population of 13,080 in June 2025 alongside 68 validated new addresses recorded after the Census. This population level corresponds to a density of 1,708 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations analyzed by AreaSearch. The post-census expansion of 0.0% is within 2.1 percentage points of the wider SA3 area (2.1%), showing competitive growth indicators.
The primary driver of population growth in the locality was overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 77.4% of total population increases in recent times. AreaSearch implements ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each individual SA2 area, published in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For SA2 areas where this data is unavailable, AreaSearch applies Regional/LGA projections from the VIC State Government released in 2023, adjusted via a weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age brackets from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at future demographic trends, population growth is projected to be slightly below the median of national areas, with the population expected to increase by 488 persons by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a total gain of 3.7% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
169 new dwellings have been approved in Keilor Downs over the past five years, an average of 33 a year. That is 2.6 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 26 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 19% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 10, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Keilor Downs has recorded an average of approximately 33 new residential approvals annually, totaling 169 approved dwellings over the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 10 during FY-26 so far. Because the population declined in the recent period, housing availability has remained sufficient for local demand, resulting in a balanced market with broad selection for buyers. Newly built properties have an average construction cost of $290,000, which is below the regional average and points to more affordable options. Furthermore, commercial approvals totaling $61.8 million have been registered during this financial year, pointing to strong local business investment.
Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs shows 13.0% less new development per person, placing it in the 52nd percentile of areas evaluated nationwide, though construction activity has accelerated in recent years. This level of activity is below the national average, reflecting the mature nature of the locality and indicating potential planning restrictions. New building approvals consist of 19.0% detached houses and 81.0% townhouses or apartments. This preference for medium density options provides affordable pathways to home ownership and appeals to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a major shift from the existing housing stock (which is currently 87.0% houses), reflecting a decrease in available development sites and meeting evolving lifestyle and affordability demands. With roughly 483 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs presents as an established market. Demographic projections indicate Keilor Downs will add 480 residents up to 2041 (starting from the most recent quarterly estimate by AreaSearch). Under current development patterns, new housing supply is projected to easily satisfy demand, maintaining favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth above current forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Keilor Downs
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 10 current infrastructure and development projects inside Keilor Downs, worth an estimated $486 million. A further 74 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $65 billion. 23 are already under construction and 21 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Few factors shape local performance as significantly as changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and planning schemes. In total, 24 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as having a potential impact on the locality. Key initiatives include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Rosemont Townhomes, Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses, with the subsequent list outlining the most relevant developments.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Baptcare Keilor Downs Affordable Housing
Construction of 47 social and affordable housing dwellings, comprised of 23 single-storey and 24 double-storey units, delivered under Victoria's Big Housing Build program. The homes are accessed via a new internal loop road connecting to Thornhill Drive, each with one car space and landscaped front and rear yards. The project is a partnership between Baptcare Affordable Housing and the Victorian Government, part of a combined 95-home commitment across Keilor Downs and Lalor. Civil works are well underway on site.
Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment
Approved staged masterplan and development plan for Keilor Central, enabling a 10-15 year redevelopment of the sub-regional shopping centre. The plan allows about 20,000 sqm of new retail, shops and marketplace space, new laneways and market-style retail, greener public spaces, improved links to Brimbank Aquatic and Wellness Centre, and about 320 dwellings to add mixed-use activity and housing diversity.
Keilor Downs Urban Design Framework
The Keilor Downs Urban Design Framework, adopted by Brimbank City Council in 2018, sets an integrated vision for the future built form, public realm, and land use of the Keilor Downs Activity Centre. It guides Council's assessment of planning permit applications within the activity centre, covering built form controls, streetscape improvements, and pedestrian connectivity. The framework document was last reviewed and confirmed current as of 6 February 2024.
20 Packard Street Townhouses
Development of 8 two-storey townhouses designed for modern living. The development application has been granted by Brimbank Council. Construction is expected to commence soon.
Keilor Downs Social Housing Development
47 social housing dwellings in Copernicus Way, Keilor Downs as part of Big Housing Build program. Partnership between Homes Victoria and community housing providers to deliver affordable housing for eligible Victorians on the Victorian Housing Register.
Aspect Apartments - Keilor Downs
Boutique townhouse development by Soho Living and architect Rothelowman comprising 99 townhouses at 7B Copernicus Way, Keilor Downs. Features luxurious, low-maintenance lifestyle with contemporary design, timber-like cladding, abundant glazing, premium Smeg appliances, composite stone benchtops, and ducted heating. Positioned in growing western suburbs with excellent transport access.
M80 Ring Road Upgrade - Sunshine Avenue to Calder Freeway (Keilor East)
Completed upgrade of the M80 Ring Road through Keilor East between Sunshine Avenue and the Calder Freeway, including widening to 4 lanes each way to the EJ Whitten Bridge and 5 lanes each way across the bridge to the Calder Freeway, ramp improvements and smart freeway systems to improve traffic flow and safety.
M80 Shared User Path Upgrade
Upgraded shared user path along the M80 between Dodds Road and the EJ Whitten Bridge, providing a smoother and safer journey for bike riders and walkers. Includes a new 1km shared user path through natural parkland and green space.
6,585 residents of Keilor Downs are employed, from a labour force of 6,996. Unemployment sits at 5.9%, with participation at 62.8%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 10,718, about 82% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Keilor Downs has a skilled labor force with representation across various sectors, an unemployment rate of 5.9%, and an estimated job growth rate of 2.0% over the last year. As of March 2026, there are 6,585 employed residents, while the unemployment rate is 1.1% higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.8%, and the participation rate is significantly lower (62.8% compared to 70.2% in Greater Melbourne). Census data shows that a moderate 23.1% of employees worked from home, though this may reflect the influence of Covid-19 restrictions. The primary employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.
There is a particularly high concentration of workers in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have a minor footprint, accounting for 6.0% of employment compared to 10.1% across the region. This mostly residential locality appears to provide few local employment opportunities, as shown by the comparison of Census working population to resident population. Analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch shows that during the year leading to March 2026, employment grew by 2.0% and the labor force expanded by 1.9%, while the level of unemployment remained virtually constant. This differs from Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.1%, the labor force increased by 2.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. Projections for national employment from May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide additional context regarding future demand in Keilor Downs. These forecasts, spanning five and ten-year horizons, have been applied to the local employment profile to project future trends. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary widely by industry. Weighting these industry-specific projections against the Keilor Downs workforce profile suggests local employment could rise by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (note that this is a simple weighted extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not incorporate local population projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Keilor Downs is $1,553 a week (about $81,000 a year), with median personal income at $604 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $53,638 a year against an average of $63,252. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Taxpayer income levels in the Keilor Downs SA2 are lower than the national average according to aggregated financial year 2023 ATO data analyzed by AreaSearch. The median income for taxpayers in the Keilor Downs SA2 is $53,638 and the average income is $63,252, compared to $57,688 and $75,164 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current figures are estimated to be approximately $58,798 (median) and $69,337 (average) as of March 2026. Based on the 2021 Census, individual weekly incomes are in the 12th percentile ($604), whereas household incomes are higher in the 38th percentile.
The largest income bracket contains 32.2% of residents (4,214 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, mirroring the broader region where 32.8% fall into this bracket. Housing expenses are manageable with 87.0% of income retained, though disposable income is below average in the 42nd percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Keilor Downs had 4,520 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 87% detached houses and 1% apartments. 34% are owned with a mortgage, 19% rented and 48% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $360 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,733 a month. Rent absorbs 23.2% of household income here and mortgage repayments 25.8%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, residential structures in Keilor Downs consisted of 87.3% houses and 12.6% other options (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to 67.9% houses and 32.1% other options in the Melbourne metropolitan area. Home ownership rates in Keilor Downs were significantly higher than the Melbourne metropolitan average, sitting at 47.5%, with the remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (33.7%) or renting (18.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,733 was well below the Melbourne metro average of $2,000, and the median weekly rent was $360 compared to the metro average of $390.
On a national level, mortgage payments in Keilor Downs are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are below the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Keilor Downs counted 4,520 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.8 people each. 36% are couples with children, against 27% couples without children. 19% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.7 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family households represent the vast majority of households at 79.1%, which includes couples with children (35.6%), couples without children (26.9%), and single parent families (15.7%). Non-family households account for the remaining 20.9%, consisting of single-person households at 19.0% and group households at 1.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
21.9% of adults in Keilor Downs hold a university qualification, including 15.8% with a bachelor degree and 4.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 21.1% hold a vocational qualification. 5 schools serve the area, with 2,636 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,016 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The locality presents educational disparities, with university degree attainment (21.9%) falling significantly below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This highlights both a challenge and an opening for targeted educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate degrees (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational and technical skills are highly represented, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications in these areas – advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (21.1%). Enrolment in education is remarkably high, with 27.1% of residents currently studying in formal programs. This figure includes 8.5% in primary schools, 7.5% in secondary schools, and 5.1% in higher education institutions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Keilor Downs reaches 66 stops on 6 routes, timetabled for about 930 services a week. The typical home sits about 200 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.6 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport analysis indicates 66 active transit stops in Keilor Downs, which consist of bus services. These stops are served by 6 distinct routes, which provide a total of 929 passenger journeys per week. Access to transport is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 195 meters from their nearest stop. Because this is a residential suburb, most workers travel outside the area, with cars being the primary mode of travel at 90%, and 6% using trains. Vehicle ownership stands at 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.
Approximately 23.1% of residents work from home (based on the 2021 Census, which may show the effects of COVID-19). The average frequency of service is 132 trips per day across all routes, which corresponds to approximately 14 weekly trips per stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
68.3% of residents in Keilor Downs report no long-term health condition. 8.4% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.5% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.5 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators demonstrate relatively favorable conditions for residents of Keilor Downs. AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality statistics and medical diagnoses indicates results that align with national averages, showing standard rates of common illnesses across youth and senior demographics, while the level of private health insurance coverage is low at about 50% of the population (~6,609 people). This compares to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical diagnoses in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.2 and 7.6% of residents, respectively, while 68.3% of the population reported no chronic health conditions, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne.
Health outcomes for the working-age cohort are standard. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 24.7% of the population (3,226 people), which is higher than the 15.0% share in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for seniors are above average, with national rankings aligning closely with the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
42.2% of Keilor Downs residents were born overseas and 49.6% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 87% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (13.4%) and English (11.1%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Keilor Downs exhibits a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.2% of residents born outside Australia and 49.6% communicating in a language other than English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, representing 62.0% of the population. A notable overrepresentation is found in Buddhism, which accounts for 6.4% of the population, compared to 4.2% in Greater Melbourne. In terms of parent country of birth, the three most common ancestries in Keilor Downs are Other (15.8%), Australian (13.4%), and English (11.1%), which is significantly lower than the regional average of 20.1%.
There is also a distinct overrepresentation of certain ethnic groups, with Maltese making up 5.4% of Keilor Downs (compared to 1.1% regionally), Macedonian at 3.9% (compared to 0.7%), and Croatian at 3.7% (compared to 0.7%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Keilor Downs is 42. 24.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 42 years in Keilor Downs is higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 65 - 74 age bracket is highly represented at 13.8% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 35 - 44 cohort is less common at 11.9%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 5.9% to 8.2% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 group has decreased from 14.2% to 12.7%. Demographic projections for 2041 point to significant changes in Keilor Downs, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 41% (445 people), rising from 1,077 to 1,523.
The combined 65+ age groups will represent 80% of total population growth, showing an aging population profile. By contrast, the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to decrease in size.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Keilor Downs
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 10 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 68 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (13,082 at the 2021 Census → 13,088 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (213011332). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.