Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Keilor Downs's population is around 13,079 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 3 people (0.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,082 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,068 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 68 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,707 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor Downs's -0.0% growth since the census positions it within 2.6 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 76.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 488 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 3.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keilor Downs, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor Downs has averaged around 33 new dwelling approvals per year, with 169 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 9 so far in FY-26. Given population has fallen over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $290,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $61.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs has 13.0% less new development (per person) while it places among the 51st percentile of areas assessed nationally, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% townhouses or apartments. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 87.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 482 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs shows a developed market.

Population forecasts indicate Keilor Downs will gain 477 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 25 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Rosemont Townhomes, Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Keilor Downs has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keilor Downs possesses a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 6.2%, and 3.2% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,599 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.5% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (63.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 23.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 6.0% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.2% and the labour force increased by 4.3%, resulting in unemployment rising by 1.0 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Keilor Downs. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keilor Downs's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The Keilor Downs SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Keilor Downs SA2's median income among taxpayers is $53,638 and the average income stands at $63,252, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $58,063 (median) and $68,470 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, individual incomes lag at the 12th percentile ($604 weekly), while household income performs better at the 38th percentile. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 32.2% of locals (4,211 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.0% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 42nd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Keilor Downs, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.3% houses and 12.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Keilor Downs was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 47.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (33.7%) or rented (18.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Keilor Downs's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 79.1% of all households, comprising 35.6% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (21.9%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (21.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 66 active transport stops operating within Keilor Downs, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 929 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 195 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 6% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 23.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 132 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor Downs's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Keilor Downs residents, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results broadly in line with national benchmarks. A fairly standard level of common health conditions is seen across both young and old age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,604 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.2 and 7.6% of residents, respectively, while 68.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 25.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,303 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs scores highly on cultural diversity, with 42.2% of its population born overseas and 49.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Keilor Downs is Christianity, which makes up 62.0% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 6.4% of the population, compared to 4.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Keilor Downs are Other, comprising 15.8% of the population, Australian, comprising 13.4% of the population, and English, comprising 11.1% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 20.1%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 5.4% of Keilor Downs (vs 1.1% regionally), Macedonian at 3.9% (vs 0.7%) and Croatian at 3.7% (vs 0.7%).

Keilor Downs's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Keilor Downs is significantly above Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 65 - 74 age group shows strong representation at 14.1% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 35 - 44 cohort is less prevalent at 11.8%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.9% to 8.5% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 12.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Keilor Downs. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 41% (459 people), reaching 1,576 from 1,116. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 81% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.