Keilor Downs
Statistical Area - sa2

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Keilor Downs' population, as of November 2025, is approximately 13,066, a decrease of 16 individuals since the 2021 Census which reported 13,082 inhabitants. This decline was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 13,068 in June 2024 and 68 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 1,705 persons per square kilometer, higher than average national locations assessed by AreaSearch. While Keilor Downs experienced a 0.1% decline between censuses, its SA3 area grew by 2.6%, indicating divergent trends. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.9% of recent population gains in the area. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by ABS data.

Future trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the population expected to increase by 488 persons to 2041, marking a total gain of 3.8%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keilor Downs, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor Downs averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 169 homes approved during this period. In FY26, up to June, there have been 6 dwellings approved. Despite a decline in population, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $290,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $61.8 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs has 13.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 52nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, though it remains below average nationally due to the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. The current dwelling approvals show a skew towards compact living, with 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands for affordability. With around 482 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs indicates a developed market.

Population forecasts project an increase of 490 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor Downs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 24 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Baptcare Keilor Downs Affordable Housing, Rosemont Townhomes, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Keilor Downs has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keilor Downs has a skilled labour force with diverse industry representation. Its unemployment rate was 5.7% as of June 2024.

Employment growth in the area over the past year was estimated at 5.2%. As of June 2025, 6,799 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 5.7%, which is 1.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Keilor Downs was 55.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among Keilor Downs residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Notably, transport, postal & warehousing had employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services had limited presence with only 6.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the census working population versus resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels in Keilor Downs increased by 5.2%, while the labour force grew by 5.8%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, with a labour force growth of 4.0% and a similar increase in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6%. Over ten years, this projection increases to 13.7%. Applying these industry-specific projections to Keilor Downs' current employment mix indicates potential local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Keilor Downs's median income among taxpayers was $49,989 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $60,197 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Keilor Downs would be approximately $56,068 (median) and $67,517 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, individual incomes in Keilor Downs lag at the 12th percentile ($604 weekly), while household income performs better at the 39th percentile. The predominant income cohort spans 32.2% of locals (4,207 people) with earnings between $1,500 and 2,999 per week. This pattern is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% of residents fall into this income range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.0% retained after expenses, but disposable income sits below average at the 42nd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor Downs' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.3% houses and 12.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs was at 47.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. The median weekly rent in Keilor Downs was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.1% of all households, including 35.6% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 21.9%, substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (21.1%).

Educational participation is notably high at 27.1%, including 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education. Keilor Downs has 5 schools with a combined enrollment of 2,636 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1016) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 4 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs at 20.1 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.3, indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Downs has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1496 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 195 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 213 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Keilor Downs are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Keilor Downs shows below-average health indicators with common conditions slightly more prevalent across younger and older age groups compared to averages. Around half (50%) of Keilor Downs' total population (~6,467 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.2% of residents) and asthma (7.6%). While 68.3% of residents declare no medical ailments, this is lower than Greater Melbourne's 73.5%. Keilor Downs has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.3% (3,180 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Keilor Downs are above average and better than the general population in health metrics.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.2% of its population born overseas and 49.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor Downs, accounting for 62.0% of people. However, Buddhism is less prevalent than the Greater Melbourne average, comprising only 6.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (15.8%), Australian (13.4%), and English (11.1%). Notably, Croatian, Maltese, and Macedonian ethnicities have higher representation in Keilor Downs compared to regional averages: Croatian at 3.7% vs 2.2%, Maltese at 5.4% vs 4.6%, and Macedonian at 3.9% vs 2.5%.

Keilor Downs hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Keilor Downs is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 14.0% of the population in Keilor Downs, compared to a lower prevalence of the 35-44 cohort at 11.9%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.9% to 7.8% of the population, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 13.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Keilor Downs. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 54%, adding 551 people and reaching a total of 1,576 from the previous figure of 1,024. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 86% of the total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.