Keilor Downs

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Keilor Downs' population, as of February 2026, stands at approximately 13,079 people. This figure represents a decrease of 3 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,082. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 13,068 as of June 2024 and an additional 68 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,707 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor Downs' zero percent growth since the census places it within 2.6 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.6%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future population trends, Keilor Downs is expected to experience a population increase just below the national median by 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is projected to expand by 488 persons over this period, reflecting a total gain of 3.6%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keilor Downs, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor Downs has averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. A total of 169 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 55 approved in FY26 so far. Despite a decrease in population, housing supply has been adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value for new properties is $290,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In the current financial year, $61.8 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating robust local business investment. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs has 13.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 51st percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. The current housing mix shows a shift towards compact living, with 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% townhouses or apartments, compared to the current housing mix of 87.0% houses. This change is attributed to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 482 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs indicates a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 477 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that may impact the area. Notable ones include Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Rosemont Townhomes, Keilor Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, and 20 Packard Street Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Keilor Downs has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate is 6.1%, having seen an estimated employment growth of 4.3% in the past year. As of September 2025, there are 6,613 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation stands at 63.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census data shows that 23.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has a high concentration with levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence with only 6.0% of employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities due to its predominantly residential nature. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 4.3%, labour force grew by 5.3%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force increase by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Keilor Downs' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Keilor Downs SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $53,638. The average income stood at $63,252 during the same period. These figures are below those of Greater Melbourne, which were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively for median and average incomes in financial year 2023. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $58,063, with the average being around $68,470. According to data from the 2021 Census, individual incomes in Keilor Downs SA2 lag at the 12th percentile ($604 weekly), while household income performs better at the 38th percentile. The majority of locals (32.2%, or 4,211 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income category, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.0% retained as disposable income, but overall disposable income levels sit below average at the 42nd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Keilor Downs, as per the latest Census, 87.3% of dwellings were houses with 12.6% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Melbourne metropolitan area's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs stood at 47.5%, with mortgaged properties at 33.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Keilor Downs was $360, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.1% of all households, including 35.6% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households making up 1.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas account for 9.9% and certificates for 21.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Downs has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by six different routes that collectively provide 929 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's home to the nearest transport stop is 195 meters. Most residents commute outward from Keilor Downs, with car being the dominant mode of transport at 90%. Six percent of residents use the train. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling in Keilor Downs, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 132 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor Downs's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data for Keilor Downs shows positive outcomes overall. Mortality rates and health conditions are largely similar to national averages. Common health conditions are prevalent across both young and old age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,604 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.2%) and asthma (7.6%), with 68.3% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among working-age individuals are typical. Keilor Downs has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.3% (3,303 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.2% of its population born overseas and 49.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor Downs, accounting for 62.0% of people. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 6.4% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (15.8%), Australian (13.4%), and English (11.1%), which is lower than the regional average of 20.1%. Notably, Maltese (5.4%), Macedonian (3.9%), and Croatian (3.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to their respective regional averages of 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.7%.

Keilor Downs's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Keilor Downs is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The strongest representation among age groups is the 65-74 cohort at 14.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 35-44 group is less prevalent at 11.8%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.9% to 8.5% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 12.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Keilor Downs. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 41%, reaching 1,576 people from 1,116. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 81% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.