Keilor Downs
Statistical Area - sa2

Keilor Downs has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Keilor Downs' population is approximately 13,082 as of August 2025. This figure is unchanged from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,082 people. The population estimate for June 2024 was 13,069 according to ABS data, with an additional 74 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to the current population figure. This results in a population density ratio of 1,707 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor Downs' growth rate since the census is 0.0%, placing it within 2.2 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.2%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 76.9% of overall population gains during recent periods in Keilor Downs.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041 based on these aggregations. Future demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth for statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with Keilor Downs expected to expand by 488 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, resulting in a total gain of 3.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Keilor Downs, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor Downs averaged approximately 33 new dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, there were 169 home approvals in total, with an additional six approvals recorded so far in FY26. Despite population decline in the area, development activity has been relatively adequate, which could be beneficial for buyers as new homes are being constructed at an average expected construction cost of $338,000, below the regional average.

There have also been $61.8 million worth of commercial approvals this financial year, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Downs has 13.0% less new development per person and ranks in the 52nd percentile nationally for development activity. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, suggesting potential planning limitations in the established area. New building activity comprises 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards higher-density living to provide more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the existing housing stock, which is currently 87.0% houses. With approximately 482 people per dwelling approval, Keilor Downs shows signs of a developed market.

Population forecasts suggest that Keilor Downs will gain around 474 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Keilor Downs has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 27 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Melbourne Airport Rail - Infrastructure and Bridges, Essendon Keilor College - East Keilor Campus, Baptcare Keilor Downs Affordable Housing, and Rosemont Townhomes. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Keilor Downs shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Keilor Downs has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 5.7% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.2%. There were 6,799 residents in work while the unemployment rate was 1.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 55.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 6.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and July 2025, employment increased by 5.2% alongside labour force growth of 5.8%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a similar rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 projected growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor Downs's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Keilor Downs had a median income of $49,989 and an average of $60,197 among taxpayers. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne having a median of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. By March 2025, estimates suggest Keilor Downs' median income will be approximately $55,043 and average $66,283 based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates individual incomes rank at the 12th percentile ($604 weekly), while household income ranks at the 39th percentile. Income distribution shows that 32.2% (4,212 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band, similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing costs allow for retention of 87.0%, but disposable income ranks below average at the 42nd percentile.

Keilor Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor Downs' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.3% houses and 12.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Downs stood at 47.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,700. The median weekly rent in Keilor Downs was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $346. Nationally, Keilor Downs' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Downs features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.1% of all households, including 35.6% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 19.0% and group households at 1.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Keilor Downs shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 21.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (21.1%).

Educational participation is high at 27.1%, including 8.5% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education. Keilor Downs's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,636 students as of the given date. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1016) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 4 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (20.1 places per 100 residents vs 14.3 regionally), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Downs has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1,496 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 195 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

Across all routes, an average of 213 trips are made per day, which translates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Keilor Downs are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Keilor Downs has below-average health indicators with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,475 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.2 and 7.6% of residents respectively. 68.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.5% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2019, 24.3% of Keilor Downs' residents are aged 65 and over (3,184 people), higher than the 17.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors in Keilor Downs are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Keilor Downs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Downs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.2% of its population born overseas and 49.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor Downs, making up 62.0% of the population. However, Buddhism is underrepresented compared to the Greater Melbourne average, comprising only 6.4%.

The top three ancestry groups in Keilor Downs are Other (15.8%), Australian (13.4%), and English (11.1%). Notably, Croatian (3.7%) and Maltese (5.4%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Keilor Downs hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Keilor Downs is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The percentage of the population aged 65-74 is 14.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the percentage aged 35-44 is 11.9%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 5.9% to 7.8%, and the percentage aged 55 to 64 has declined from 14.2% to 13.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Keilor Downs, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 54% (550 people), reaching 1,576 from 1,025. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting Keilor Downs' aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.