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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Keilor has an estimated 8,736 residents, up from 8,548 at the 2021 Census — a change of 188 people, or 2.2%. That puts 499 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Keilor is estimated at 8,736 as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 188 residents (2.2%) relative to the 8,548 individuals recorded in the 2021 Census. The fluctuation is calculated using the ABS estimated resident population of 8,734 for June 2025 alongside 23 validated new addresses registered after the Census. This population level yields a density of 498 persons per square kilometer, which indicates substantial space per resident and capacity for prospective expansion. The post-census expansion of 2.2% in Keilor lags the SA3 region (4.9%) by 2.7 percentage points, showing competitive local dynamics.
Overseas migration was the primary contributor to these gains, accounting for approximately 75.6% of the net growth, though natural increase and interstate arrivals also registered positive figures. Projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline are applied by AreaSearch for each SA2 region. In instances where SA2 data is unavailable, projections are derived from the 2023 Victorian State Government Regional/LGA releases, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method of population growth from LGA to SA2 divisions. Age group growth rates from these compilations are extended to cover the period from 2032 to 2041. Future demographic outlooks indicate an expansion rate slightly below the national median, with the locality projected to grow by 745 residents by 2041 based on recent annual ERP statistics, indicating a cumulative increase of 8.5% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
175 new dwellings have been approved in Keilor over the past five years, an average of 35 a year. That is 4.1 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 24 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 71% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 33, broadly in line with that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Dwelling approvals in Keilor have run at an annual average of approximately 35, with 175 residences approved during the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, and 31 recorded in FY-26 to date. With population declines registered recently, residential supply has kept pace with demand to ensure a balanced marketplace and solid options for purchasers, while the average construction value of new builds stands at $439,000—a figure slightly higher than the regional benchmark—pointing to a focus on premium projects. Furthermore, commercial approvals have reached $44.5 million during the current financial year, indicating healthy local business capital expenditure.
Relative to Greater Melbourne, Keilor registers about two-thirds the volume of new residential approvals per capita, placing it in the 52nd percentile of all locations analyzed nationwide. Current construction activity consists of 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% attached dwellings, preserving the established low-density profile centered around spacious family residences. This represents a distinct departure from the historical residential composition (currently 87.0% houses), indicating a scarcer supply of development allotments, changing lifestyle choices, and budget constraints. With one approval for every 322 residents, Keilor is characterized as a low-density sector. Demographic estimates suggest Keilor will add 741 inhabitants up to 2041, derived from the most recent AreaSearch quarterly tracking. Standard building trends indicate that the supply of new housing is positioned to accommodate this demand, creating favorable buyer conditions and potentially supporting population growth above current forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Keilor
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 7 current infrastructure and development projects inside Keilor, worth an estimated $23.7 billion. A further 81 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $67.4 billion. 23 are already under construction and 21 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, major planning, and development initiatives are key drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has tracked 46 projects that are expected to impact the local community. Major works include the Keilor East Railway Station, SRL Airport, Western Ring Road (M80) Infrastructure Upgrades, and the Outer Metropolitan Ring / E6 Transport Corridor, with key details provided on the most significant initiatives.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Tullamarine Logistics Estate
Goodman's premium industrial estate delivering over 100,000 sqm of modern warehouse and logistics facilities at Tullamarine, adjacent to Melbourne Airport. The estate offers direct access to the Tullamarine Freeway, Metropolitan Ring Road and Calder Freeway, targeting e-commerce, contract logistics, and freight-forwarding occupiers seeking proximity to the airport and Melbourne's northern arterial network.
M80 Ring Road Upgrade
Upgrades to the M80 Ring Road including adding new lanes, installing a smart freeway lane management system, new bridges, and establishing a seamless connection to the North East Link to improve traffic flow and safety.
Assembly Tullamarine
A proposed 70,000 sqm state-of-the-art logistics and industrial estate by Charter Hall at Tullamarine, featuring multiple large warehouses with direct connectivity to Melbourne Airport and the Tullamarine Freeway. The estate is designed to accommodate a range of logistics and industrial tenant customers with high-clearance warehouses, sustainable design features and efficient freight access.
Keilor East Railway Station
New railway station at Keilor East as part of the Melbourne Airport Rail Link project, serving over 150,000 residents in the Moonee Valley area. The station will provide direct access to Melbourne Airport and the CBD via the Metro Tunnel. Works on the broader rail link commenced in early 2026 after disputes were resolved, with completion targeted for 2033.
Sharps Rd, Tullamarine
A next-generation logistics hub planned by Hines, positioned to enhance the route between the M80 and Melbourne Airport.
Outer Metropolitan Ring / E6 Transport Corridor
The Outer Metropolitan Ring / E6 reservation will accommodate a 100 kilometre long high-speed transport link for people and freight in Melbourne's north and west. It includes a multi-lane freeway and a reservation for up to four rail tracks, aiming to improve connections to key hubs like Melbourne Airport and the Port of Geelong, supporting the region's growth over a 30 to 50-year period.
SRL Airport
SRL Airport, formerly known as Melbourne Airport Rail, is a 27km rail link connecting Melbourne Airport to the CBD via Sunshine Station and the Metro Tunnel. It includes new stations at Melbourne Airport and Keilor East, elevated tracks over the Western Ring Road, and integration with the Suburban Rail Loop. The project features upgrades to the Sunshine Superhub with new platforms, rail bridges, tracks, and signalling technology, as well as a rebuild of Albion Station with modern accessible facilities and a flyover to separate airport trains from other services.Early works completed, with major construction underway following a 2025 Memorandum of Understanding between the Victorian Government and Melbourne Airport.
Baptcare Keilor Downs Affordable Housing
Construction of 47 social and affordable housing dwellings, comprised of 23 single-storey and 24 double-storey units, delivered under Victoria's Big Housing Build program. The homes are accessed via a new internal loop road connecting to Thornhill Drive, each with one car space and landscaped front and rear yards. The project is a partnership between Baptcare Affordable Housing and the Victorian Government, part of a combined 95-home commitment across Keilor Downs and Lalor. Civil works are well underway on site.
4,666 residents of Keilor are employed, from a labour force of 4,746. Unemployment sits at 1.7%, with participation at 64.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.4% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 16,098, about 184% of the resident population, so the area draws in more workers than it sends out. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce is highly skilled, with construction workers showing strong representation, a very low unemployment rate of 1.7%, and consistent job numbers over the prior year. Active workers numbered 4,666 as of March 2026, and the unemployment rate is 3.1% lower than the 4.8% recorded across Greater Melbourne, though the participation rate of 64.6% is significantly lower than the metropolitan average of 70.2%. Census records show that a high proportion of employed residents (28.8%) performed their duties from home, though this may have been influenced by COVID-19 restriction periods.
The primary employment sectors for local residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The local concentration of construction jobs is particularly high, reaching 1.5 times the broader metropolitan average. Conversely, health care & social assistance has a smaller footprint, employing 11.0% of the workforce compared to the regional mark of 14.2%. Registering 2.2 workers for every local resident at the Census, the locality serves as a major employment center, importing labor and hosting more jobs than it has working residents. AreaSearch assessment of SALM and ABS statistics shows that for the 12 months ending March 2026, employment grew by 0.4% while the total labor force contracted by 0.5%, yielding a 0.9 percentage point drop in unemployment. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment expansion of 2.1% and labor force growth of 2.3%, leading to an increase of 0.2 percentage points. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia dated May-25 provide context for future labor demand in Keilor. These five and ten-year projections are mapped against the local industry profile to estimate employment trends. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with substantial variation across industries. Weighting these projections to the local employment structure suggests Keilor jobs could increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, representing a basic weighting extrapolation that excludes local population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Keilor is $1,820 a week (about $95,000 a year), with median personal income at $760 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $63,501 a year against an average of $85,006. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Tax data compiled by AreaSearch from the ATO for the 2023 financial year indicates that the Keilor SA2 has an exceptionally high income level compared to the rest of the nation. Taxpayers in Keilor SA2 record a median income of $63,501 and an average income of $85,006, contrasting with the Greater Melbourne markers of $57,688 and $75,164. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index rise of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates sit at roughly $69,610 for the median and $93,184 for the average as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and individual incomes place moderately, falling between the 40th and 54th percentiles.
The largest cohort comprises 28.1% of residents (2,454 people) earning within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is comparable to the wider region where 32.8% of the population sits in this bracket. Discretionary income after housing costs is high at 87.9%, demonstrating strong spending power, and the suburb is positioned in the 6th decile on the SEIFA index.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Keilor had 3,147 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 87% detached houses and 0% apartments. 37% are owned with a mortgage, 13% rented and 51% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $396 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,019 a month. Rent absorbs 21.8% of household income here and mortgage repayments 25.6%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the last Census, the housing stock in Keilor consisted of 87.3% standalone houses and 12.7% other residential options like semi-detached buildings and apartments, differing from the Melbourne metropolitan split of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in the suburb is exceptionally high at 51.0%, with the remaining properties being purchased under a mortgage (36.5%) or rented (12.5%). The median mortgage payment of $2,019 per month is higher than the Melbourne metropolitan average of $2,000, while the median weekly rent of $396 is higher than the metropolitan average of $390.
Globally, mortgage repayments in Keilor exceed the national average of $1,863, and weekly rents are above the Australian average of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Keilor counted 3,147 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.6 people each. 38% are couples with children, against 28% couples without children. 21% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.8 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family households represent the bulk of the community at 77.4%, consisting of couples with children at 37.5%, couples without children at 27.9%, and single-parent households at 11.2%. Non-family living arrangements account for 22.6% of dwellings, with lone person households representing 21.4% and group households making up 1.1%. The median household occupancy is 2.6 people, matching the metropolitan Melbourne average.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
24.6% of adults in Keilor hold a university qualification, including 17.9% with a bachelor degree and 4.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 22.0% hold a vocational qualification. 3 schools serve the area, with 2,794 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,082 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment levels present clear developmental opportunities, as the university qualification rate of 24.6% sits well below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees represent the largest university cohort at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 4.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Vocational and technical qualifications are highly prevalent, with 32.5% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 22.0%. Enrolment rates in the suburb are high, with 26.1% of the population currently engaged in study. This includes primary school students at 8.7%, secondary school students at 8.1%, and tertiary students at 4.3%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Keilor reaches 66 stops on 9 routes, timetabled for about 3,100 services a week. The typical home sits about 210 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.7 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport services in Keilor include 66 active bus stops. These stops are served by 9 separate routes, facilitating 3,134 passenger journeys per week. Transit accessibility is favorable, with an average distance of 208 meters to the closest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, and most workers commute to outer areas, with private vehicles remaining the primary choice at 92%. Dwellings average 1.7 vehicles, higher than the regional average. Census data from 2021 shows that 28.8% of employed residents worked from home, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions. Service frequency across the network averages 447 journeys per day, translating to roughly 47 weekly trips per stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
68.3% of residents in Keilor report no long-term health condition, a healthier profile than 83% of areas nationally. 7.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 61.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 3.9 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health metrics for Keilor indicate excellent overall wellness, based on AreaSearch analysis of mortality statistics and chronic disease rates. Younger cohorts display very low rates of common health conditions, and private health insurance coverage is high, encompassing approximately 62% of the population (5,381 people). This is higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. Arthritis and asthma are the most common diagnoses, affecting 9.2% and 7.1% of residents, while 68.3% of the population reported no chronic medical conditions compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne.
Working-age locals show positive health indicators with low chronic disease incidence. Residents aged 65 and older represent 26.9% of the population (2,349 people), which exceeds the Greater Melbourne share of 15.0%. Senior health outcomes are favorable, though they rank lower nationally relative to the younger local demographic.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
25.2% of Keilor residents were born overseas and 26.3% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (18.1%) and Australian (17.9%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Keilor displays high levels of cultural diversity relative to the majority of analyzed markets, with 25.2% of the population born outside Australia and 26.3% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the dominant religion at 71.3%, which is higher than the 43.0% recorded across Greater Melbourne. Regarding parent birthplaces, the most common ancestries are English at 18.1%, Australian at 17.9%, and Italian at 16.2%, the latter being significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Other distinct ethnic groups include Croatian at 2.7% of the population (compared to 0.7% regionally), Maltese at 4.1% (compared to 1.1% regionally), and Polish at 1.3% (compared to 0.8% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Keilor is 45, older than 78% of areas nationally. 20.5% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age in Keilor is 45 years, which is older than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the national average of 38. The suburb contains a higher percentage of people aged 75 - 84 (10.8%) but fewer individuals aged 25 - 34 (8.9%) compared to Greater Melbourne. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 cohort expanded from 8.8% to 10.8%, and the 85+ cohort grew from 3.3% to 4.5%, while the 25 to 34 age group decreased from 9.9% to 8.9%. By 2041, demographic models project a 101% growth (393 people) in the 85+ cohort, rising from 388 to 782.
In addition, the combined 65+ cohorts will make up 67% of the net population growth, highlighting the aging profile, while the 35 to 44 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Keilor
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 8 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 23 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (8,548 at the 2021 Census → 8,736 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (210011228). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.