Avondale Heights

Avondale Heights has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Avondale Heights' population, as of May 2026, is approximately 12,863. This figure represents an increase of 475 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,388. The estimated resident population in June 2025 was 12,861, with an additional 54 validated new addresses contributing to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 2,377 persons per square kilometer, placing Avondale Heights in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. The area's 3.8% population growth since the census is within 1.1 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth rate of 4.9%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 77.2% of Avondale Heights' recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, with a base year of 2022, for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Avondale Heights' population is projected to increase by just below the median national rate, with an expected expansion of 1,013 persons, reflecting a total increase of approximately 7.9% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Avondale Heights when compared nationally

Avondale Heights has annually recorded around 84 residential properties granted approval. Over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), 424 homes were approved, with a further 56 approved in FY-26 so far.

On average, 0.5 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $402,000. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Avondale Heights has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas. New building activity shows 32.0% detached houses and 68.0% medium and high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 77.0% houses due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Avondale Heights reflects a low density area with around 205 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate that Avondale Heights will gain 1,011 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Avondale Heights has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 11 potential impact projects. Key initiatives include Reimagining Avondale Heights, Military Road and Clarendon Street Intersection Upgrade, Anthem Essendon, Thomas Holmes Street Affordable Housing. The following details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Avondale Heights shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Avondale Heights had an unemployment rate of 2.5% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. It had a workforce participation rate of 59.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A total of 6,238 residents were employed in December 2025.

The area showed employment stability over the past year. As of Census responses, 30.6% of residents worked from home. Leading industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Finance & insurance had a high employment share at 1.3 times the regional level.

Professional & technical employed 8.7% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8%, with employment decreasing by 0.3%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Avondale Heights's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch reports that according to its aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Avondale Heights SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $59,254 and an average income of $74,125. Nationally, the median was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $64,954 (median) and $81,256 (average). The 2021 Census figures show household income at the 40th percentile ($1,587 weekly), with personal income at the 22nd percentile. Income distribution data indicates that 26.9% of locals (3,460 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader regional trends showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Avondale Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Avondale Heights' dwelling structure in its latest Census assessment comprised 77.0% houses and 23.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Avondale Heights was at 49.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented ones at 20.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Avondale Heights was $400 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Avondale Heights' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $400 against the national figure of $375.

Avondale Heights has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 74.7% of all households, including 34.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Avondale Heights performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Avondale Heights, 29.6% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This indicates a gap in educational qualifications that suggests potential for development and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 26.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 9.3% and certificates for 16.7%.

A significant portion of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 24.8% pursuing it. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 4.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Avondale Heights shows 45 active transport stops operating within the area, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by seven individual routes that collectively provide 1990 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 239 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 88%, with train usage at 5%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions, 30.6% of residents work from home. Service frequency averages 284 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Avondale Heights are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Avondale Heights shows below-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~7,216 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.1%) and mental health issues (7.0%). 67.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Under-65s have better than average health outcomes. The area has 25.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,321 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Avondale Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Avondale Heights has a high level of cultural diversity, with 41.4% of its population born overseas and 48.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Avondale Heights, with 67.3%, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Italian at 19.7%, Australian at 13.0%, and Other at 12.5%.

Notably, Croatian (3.0%), Vietnamese (6.0%), and Greek (5.9%) groups are overrepresented in Avondale Heights compared to the regional averages of 0.7%, 1.9%, and 2.7% respectively.

Avondale Heights hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Avondale Heights is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years. This figure is also considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Avondale Heights has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (10.4%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 9.5% to 10.5%, while the proportion of those aged 65-74 has decreased from 11.5% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Avondale Heights' age structure. The 85+ group is expected to grow by 56%, reaching 971 people from the current 622. Notably, combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 50% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decrease in number.