Avondale Heights

Avondale Heights has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Avondale Heights's population is around 13,513 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,125 people (9.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,388 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,822 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 52 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,497 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Avondale Heights's 9.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (7.3%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 1,101 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 3.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Avondale Heights when compared nationally

Avondale Heights has recorded around 84 residential properties granted approval annually, with 424 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 40 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.5 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average construction cost of $402,000.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Avondale Heights has similar development levels (per person), preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. New building activity shows 32.0% detached houses and 68.0% medium and high-density housing. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 77.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. At around 205 people per approval, Avondale Heights reflects a developing area.

Population forecasts indicate Avondale Heights will gain 410 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Avondale Heights has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Reimagining Avondale Heights, Military Road and Clarendon Street Intersection Upgrade, Anthem Essendon, and Thomas Holmes Street Affordable Housing, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Avondale Heights shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Avondale Heights has a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.5%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,238 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 2.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 30.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has particular employment specialization in finance & insurance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 8.7% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8% combined with employment decreasing by 0.3%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Avondale Heights. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Avondale Heights's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Avondale Heights SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $59,254 with the average level standing at $74,125. This is higher than average nationally and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $64,142 (median) and $80,240 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 40th percentile ($1,587 weekly), while personal income sits at the 22nd percentile. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 26.9% of locals (3,634 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across the region showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Avondale Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Avondale Heights, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 77.0% houses and 23.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Avondale Heights was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 49.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.1%) or rented (20.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Avondale Heights's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Avondale Heights has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 74.7% of all households, comprising 34.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Avondale Heights performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Educational qualifications in Avondale Heights trail regional benchmarks, with 29.6% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 21.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (16.7%).

A substantial 24.8% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 45 active transport stops operating within Avondale Heights, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 1,990 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 239 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 88%, with 5% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A high 30.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 284 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Avondale Heights are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Avondale Heights, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical, though higher than the national average among older cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~7,580 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.1% and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 67.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 26.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,616 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Avondale Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Avondale Heights scores highly on cultural diversity, with 41.4% of its population born overseas and 48.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Avondale Heights is Christianity, which makes up 67.3% of the population. This compares to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Avondale Heights are Italian, comprising 19.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.2%, Australian, comprising 13.0% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%, and Other, comprising 12.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Croatian is notably overrepresented at 3.0% of Avondale Heights (vs 0.7% regionally), Vietnamese at 6.0% (vs 1.9%) and Greek at 5.9% (vs 2.7%).

Avondale Heights hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The 45-year median age in Avondale Heights is significantly above Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Avondale Heights has a higher concentration of 75 - 84 residents (10.8%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (9.9%). Following the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.5% to 10.2% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 11.1% to 9.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Avondale Heights's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 49% (332 people), reaching 1,012 from 679. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 54% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups will see reduced numbers.