Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Keilor East is around 15,601, reflecting an increase of 523 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to Keilor East by AreaSearch was 15,533 in June 2024. This growth represents a 3.5% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 15,078. The population density is calculated at 1,699 persons per square kilometer. Keilor East's growth since the census outperforms the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch and is within 1.0 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.5%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Keilor East is expected to grow by 1,086 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 6.4% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East has recorded approximately 106 residential properties granted approval annually, with around 534 homes approved between FY-21 and FY-25. In FY-26, 32 residential properties have been approved so far. On average, over the past five financial years, there were zero new residents per year per dwelling constructed.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $663,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. In FY-26, $1.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to previous years. Keilor East has similar development levels per person when compared to Greater Melbourne, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area. Recent construction comprises 40% detached dwellings and 60% medium and high-density housing.

This shift from the current housing pattern of 81% houses suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 168 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts indicate Keilor East will gain 992 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Keilor East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Keilor East Station - Melbourne Airport Rail, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, and Hart Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Keilor East demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor East has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.0%. There are 8,389 residents in work, with a participation rate of 58.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has high employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 11.8% compared to the regional average of 14.2%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the difference between working population and resident population counts. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 4.0%, labour force by 4.4%, leading to a slight unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor East's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Keilor East's median income among taxpayers was $57,293 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $77,687 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median income is approximately $64,260 by September 2025, with average income projected to be around $87,134 during the same period. According to the 2021 Census, Keilor East's household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,911 weekly), and personal income sits at the 40th percentile. The largest income segment comprises 30.2% of residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (4,711 residents). After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income on average, indicating strong purchasing power in the area. Keilor East's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor East's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.6% houses and 19.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 75.8% houses and 24.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor East was at 47.3%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (19.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $406, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Keilor East's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $406 compared to the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Keilor East's residents aged 15 and above have a university degree qualification rate of 29.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This difference suggests potential for educational advancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common (20.6%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.4% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 18.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education. Keilor East's four schools have a combined enrollment of 4,402 students as of the latest data. The area shows above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1078. The educational mix includes two primary schools, one secondary school, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor East has 63 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 6,468 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 204 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 924 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 102 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor East's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Keilor East's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average among both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population, which is around 8,969 people. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.0 and 6.8% of residents respectively. A total of 69.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.1% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, approximately 22.3% of Keilor East's residents are aged 65 and over, which is around 3,479 people. This aligns broadly with the general population's health profile.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 30.0% of its residents born overseas and 34.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Keilor East, accounting for 69.1% of the population, compared to 66.4% in Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%).

Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Croatian was slightly higher at 1.8% (vs regional 2.0%), Greek was higher at 5.8% (vs 5.0%), and Maltese was slightly lower at 2.7% (vs 2.8%).

Keilor East hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 9.2%, while those aged 25-34 comprise 10.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 12.2%, and the 85+ cohort has grown from 3.4% to 4.5%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 9.8% to 8.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to increase by 581 people (32%), from 1,825 to 2,407. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 50% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 75 to 84 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.