Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

By May 2026, the population of Keilor East is estimated at around 15,845. This reflects an increase of 767 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,078. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 15,838 following examination of ABS' ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,726 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor East's growth rate of 5.1% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.9%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Keilor East is expected to grow by 1,053 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.6% over the 16-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East recorded approximately 108 residential properties granted approval annually, with about 542 homes approved between fiscal years FY-21 and FY-25. As of FY-26, around 82 homes have been approved so far. On average, 0.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were recorded over the past five financial years.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of these properties was $669,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $1.1 million, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Keilor East's development levels per person are similar to Greater Melbourne, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area. Recent construction comprises 41.0% detached dwellings and 59.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 81.0% houses.

This may indicate diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 152 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Keilor East is forecasted to gain 1,046 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Keilor East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that may impact the region. Notable initiatives include North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, Valley Lake Estate, and Hart Precinct. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Keilor East ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Keilor East has a highly educated workforce with professional services prominently represented. The unemployment rate was 1.9% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Workforce participation in Keilor East is 63.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

According to Census responses, 32.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has high representation with levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance is lower at 11.8% compared to the regional average of 14.2%.

The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the resident population versus working population count. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, Keilor East's labour force decreased by 0.5%, with employment declining by 0.2%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4% during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor East's current employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, although these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Keilor East suburb has a high national income level based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers is $57,297 and average income stands at $77,687. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 respectively. Using Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $62,809 (median) and $85,160 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,911 weekly), while personal income sits at the 40th percentile. The largest segment comprises 30.2% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (4,785 residents), similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall within this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Keilor East, as per the latest Census data, 80.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.4% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Melbourne's metropolitan area, where 67.9% of dwellings are houses and 32.1% are other types. Home ownership in Keilor East stood at 47.3%, with mortgaged properties making up 33.5% and rented dwellings accounting for 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne's metro average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Keilor East was $406, compared to Melbourne's metro average of $390. Nationally, Keilor East's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, broken down into 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households accounting for 20.3% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Keilor East trail regional benchmarks, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (18.2%). Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor East has 64 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by 8 different routes, together offering 3,314 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents usually located 204 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 90%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 32.8% of residents work from home, which might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 473 trips per day, equating to roughly 51 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Keilor East is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Keilor East shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions among its general population is low but exceeds the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 57% (~9,109 people) of Keilor East residents have private health cover, which is very high compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (6.8%). About 69.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents in Keilor East have a low prevalence of chronic conditions. Around 22.4% (~3,549 people) are aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%, but lower than the national average for the broader population.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 30.0% of its residents born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Keilor East, comprising 69.1%, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%).

Notably, Croatian (1.8%) and Greek (5.8%) were overrepresented in Keilor East compared to the regional averages of 0.7% and 2.7%, respectively. Maltese also had a higher representation at 2.7% versus the regional average of 1.1%.

Keilor East hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 8.9% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute only 10.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 12.5%, and the 85+ cohort has risen from 3.4% to 4.9%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has decreased from 9.8% to 8.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 55 to 64 age cohort is expected to increase by 501 people (26%), growing from 1,933 to 2,435. Conversely, both the 75 to 84 and the 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.