Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of Keilor East is around 16,352, reflecting an increase of 1,274 people since the 2021 Census. The population was recorded as 15,078 in the 2021 Census. This growth equates to an 8.4% increase and is inferred from a resident population estimate of 15,567 by AreaSearch following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024, along with validation of 95 new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,781 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor East's growth rate of 8.4% exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 7.3%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Keilor East is expected to grow by 1,102 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 1.9% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis indicates Keilor East recorded approximately 108 residential property approvals annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, around 542 homes were approved, with an additional 61 in FY-26. Over these years, an average of zero new residents per year per dwelling was observed.

This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and potential for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of these properties is $669,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In FY-26, Keilor East has registered $1.1 million in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor East maintains similar development levels per person, keeping market balance consistent with the broader area. Recent construction comprises 41.0% detached dwellings and 59.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant shift from existing patterns (currently 81.0% houses).

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has approximately 152 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts estimate Keilor East will gain 317 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Keilor East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Keilor East Station - Melbourne Airport Rail, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, and Hart Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Keilor East ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Keilor East has a well-educated workforce. Professional services are strongly represented, with an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of December 2025. Employment stability in the area has been relatively consistent over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, 8,147 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 2.8 percentage points lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. However, workforce participation in Keilor East lags behind Greater Melbourne, at 63.5% compared to 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a significant proportion of residents, 32.8%, work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Keilor East demonstrates notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 11.8% compared to the regional average of 14.2%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Keilor East's labour force decreased by 0.8%, alongside a 0.5% employment decline, causing unemployment to fall by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Keilor East's local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the area's current employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Keilor East has a high national income level according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Keilor East is $57,297 and the average income stands at $77,687. These figures compare to those for Greater Melbourne of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $62,024 (median) and $84,096 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,911 weekly), while personal income sits at the 40th percentile. The largest segment comprises 30.2% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (4,938 residents), mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.6% houses and 19.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor East was at 47.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $406, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keilor East's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Keilor East trail regional benchmarks, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (18.2%). Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor East has 64 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by eight different routes, collectively offering 3,314 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is good, with residents typically located 204 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuting in this primarily residential area is outward-bound, with cars being the dominant mode at 90%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. In the 2021 Census, a high 32.8% of residents worked from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 473 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Keilor East is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Keilor East shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 57% (~9,400 people) have private health cover, which is very high compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (6.8%). Around 69.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Keilor East has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 22.9% (3,744 people), compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 15.1%. Nationally, however, this percentage is lower than the broader population's.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 30.0% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Keilor East, making up 69.1%, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%).

Notably, Croatian (1.8%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.7%. Similarly, Greek (5.8%) and Maltese (2.7%) had higher representations than their respective regional averages of 2.7% and 1.1%.

Keilor East hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 9.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 9.9%. Since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 12.4%, and the 85+ cohort has risen from 3.4% to 5.0%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has decreased from 9.8% to 8.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise by 419 people (51%), from 817 to 1,237. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 55% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.