Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Keilor East statistical area (Lv2) is around 16,352. This reflects an increase of 1,274 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,078. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 15,567 following examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024, and an additional 95 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,781 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. The Keilor East (SA2) saw an 8.4% growth from the 2021 census, exceeding the SA3 area's 7.3%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Keilor East (SA2) is expected to grow by 1,086 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 1.5% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East recorded approximately 108 residential properties granted approval annually between FY-21 and FY-25. This totals around 542 homes approved over these five financial years, with an additional 52 approved in FY-26. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed during this period was zero.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties was $669,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. Commercial approvals registered in FY-26 totalled $1.1 million, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Keilor East's development levels per person are similar to Greater Melbourne, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area. Recent construction comprises 41.0% detached dwellings and 59.0% medium and high-density housing.

This shift from the current pattern of 81.0% houses suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 152 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts estimate Keilor East will gain 241 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Keilor East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 12 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Keilor East Station - Melbourne Airport Rail, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, and Hart Precinct. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Keilor East demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor East has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate in the area was 2.4% as of September 2025.

This is lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.3%. There are 8,212 residents currently employed. Workforce participation in Keilor East lags behind Greater Melbourne, with a rate of 58.8% compared to 64.1%.

The key industries of employment among Keilor East residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. However, the area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 11.8% compared to the regional average of 14.2%. Over the past year, ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, while labour force increased by 1.5%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project an expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Keilor East has a high national income level according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Keilor East is $57,297, with an average income of $77,687. These figures compare to those for Greater Melbourne, which are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $62,024 (median) and $84,096 (average). The 2021 Census data ranks Keilor East's household income at the 59th percentile ($1,911 weekly), with personal income at the 40th percentile. The largest segment of incomes comprises 30.2% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (4,938 residents), similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall into this bracket. After housing costs, Keilor East residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.6% houses and 19.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 75.8% houses and 24.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor East was at 47.3%, similar to Melbourne metro's level, with the rest being mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (19.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Keilor East was $2,167, matching Melbourne metro's average, while median weekly rent was $406, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,167 and $410 respectively. Nationally, Keilor East's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents exceeding the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Keilor East trail regional benchmarks; 29.1% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.4% holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (18.2%). Educational participation is high; 27.1% of residents are currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 64 active transport stops operating within Keilor East, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 3,314 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 204 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 473 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor East's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Keilor East's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average among both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population, which is around 9,400 people. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.0% and 6.8% of residents respectively. About 69.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.1% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016 data, 22.3% of residents are aged 65 and over, which is approximately 3,646 people. This is broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 30.0% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Keilor East, accounting for 69.1%, compared to 66.4% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%).

Notably, Croatian (1.8%) is slightly overrepresented in Keilor East compared to the regional average of 2.0%. Similarly, Greek (5.8%) and Maltese (2.7%) have higher representations than their respective regional averages of 5.0% and 2.8%.

Keilor East hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 years are particularly prominent, making up 9.2% of the population, while the 25-34 age group is smaller at 10.2%. Since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.7% to 12.2%, and the 85+ cohort has increased from 3.4% to 4.5%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has declined from 9.8% to 8.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to increase by 493 people (26%), from 1,913 to 2,407. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.