Keilor East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Keilor East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Keilor East is around 16,352, reflecting an increase of 1,274 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was reported as 15,078. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 15,567 following examination of ABS' ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 95 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,781 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor East's growth rate of 8.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 7.3%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 1,086 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 1.5% in total over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Keilor East when compared nationally

Keilor East has recorded approximately 108 residential properties approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 542 homes were approved, with a further 52 approved in FY-26. Over these years, an average of 0 new residents per year per dwelling constructed was recorded.

The average construction value is $669,000, indicating focus on the premium market. In FY-26, $1.1 million in commercial approvals were registered. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor East maintains similar development levels per person. Recent construction comprises 41.0% detached dwellings and 59.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a shift from the current 81.0% houses. The location has approximately 152 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Keilor East will gain 241 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should meet demand adequately, favouring buyers and potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Keilor East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Keilor East Station - Melbourne Airport Rail, North Essendon Activity Centre Plan, Niddrie (Keilor Road) Activity Centre Structure Plan, and Hart Precinct. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Keilor East demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Keilor East has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3%. As of September 2025, 8,212 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was at 64.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 32.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing had employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, health care & social assistance showed lower representation at 11.8% compared to the regional average of 14.2%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, labour force grew by 1.5%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Keilor East's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Keilor East had a high national income level according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $57,297 and the average income stood at $77,687. These figures compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $62,024 (median) and $84,096 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household income ranked at the 59th percentile ($1,911 weekly), while personal income sat at the 40th percentile. The largest segment comprised 30.2% of residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (4,938 residents). After housing costs, residents retained 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Keilor East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Keilor East, as per the latest Census data, 80.6% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 19.4% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne's metropolitan area where 67.9% of dwellings are houses and 32.1% are other dwelling types. Home ownership in Keilor East stood at 47.3%, with mortgaged properties making up 33.5% and rented dwellings accounting for 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Melbourne's metropolitan average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Keilor East was $406, compared to Melbourne's metropolitan figure of $390. Nationally, Keilor East's median mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Keilor East features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 37.8% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Keilor East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Keilor East's educational qualifications trail Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 29.1% have university degrees compared to the region's 37.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%).

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 10.2% while certificates make up 18.2%. Educational participation is notably high in Keilor East, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor East has 64 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 3,314 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 204 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Keilor East being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 90%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 32.8% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 473 trips per day, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Keilor East is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Keilor East shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 57% (~9,400 people) of Keilor East residents have private health cover, a very high rate. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.0 and 6.8% of residents respectively. Notably, 69.8% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents exhibit low chronic condition prevalence. Keilor East has 22.5% (3,679 people) of its population aged 65 and over, higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne but lower nationally when compared to the broader population.

Keilor East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor East's population showed high cultural diversity, with 30.0% born overseas and 34.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Keilor East at 69.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 43.0%. The top three ancestry groups were Italian (19.3%), Australian (16.5%), and English (15.7%).

Notably, Croatian (1.8%) and Greek (5.8%) populations exceeded regional averages of 0.7% and 2.7%, respectively, while Maltese stood at 2.7% compared to the region's 1.1%.

Keilor East hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Keilor East is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 make up 9.1% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute 9.8%. Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 10.7% to 12.4%, and those aged 85+ have risen from 3.4% to 4.8%. Conversely, the percentage of people aged 65-74 has decreased from 9.8% to 8.6%, and those aged 25-34 have dropped from 10.9% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Keilor East's age structure. The number of people aged 85+ is projected to rise by 436 individuals (56%), from 784 to 1,221. Notably, the combined age groups of 65+ are expected to account for 57% of total population growth. Conversely, the cohorts aged 25-34 and 15-24 are projected to experience population declines.