Tullamarine

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of Tullamarine is estimated at around 6947 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 214 people (3.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6733 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6901 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 90 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 927 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 75% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas is forecast, with the suburb expected to increase by 2625 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 36.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tullamarine recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Tullamarine averaged around 45 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 225 homes were approved, with 12 more approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average construction cost value of $403,000. This year, $5.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential character. Development consists of 28.0% detached houses and 72.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 59.0% houses). Tullamarine reflects a low density area, with around 147 people per approval.

Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 2,563 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Tullamarine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects expected to impact the area. Notable ones are Tullamarine Logistics Estate, Oaklands Green, Western Ring Road (M80) Infrastructure Upgrades, and Assembly Tullamarine. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Tullamarine lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Tullamarine has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 6.3% in September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.4% over the past year. As of this date, 3570 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 64.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 21.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents comprised construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance. The area showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.3 times the regional level, while professional & technical employed only 5.8% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

There were 1.5 workers for every resident as at the Census, indicating the area functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.4% while labour force increased by 1.7%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insight into potential future demand within Tullamarine. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tullamarine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and not accounting for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Tullamarine's median income among taxpayers is $52,379, with an average of $61,303. This is below the national average. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $56,700 (median) and $66,360 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Tullamarine, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 32.8% of locals, with 2,278 people earning $1,500 - 2,999 per year, reflecting patterns seen regionally where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tullamarine, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Tullamarine, as per the latest Census, comprised 59.4% houses and 40.6% other dwellings. Compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tullamarine was at 32.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.9% and rented ones at 35.3%. Median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent was $355, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.8% of all households, consisting of 25.4% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (22.9%). A total of 24.4% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 7.8% in primary, 5.1% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 5.1% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tullamarine has 53 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that together facilitate 1444 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically residing 207 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outwards, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 90%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 21.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 206 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,549 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 67.1% of residents declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 23.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,611 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tullamarine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.8% of its population born overseas and 36.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tullamarine, making up 64.1% of people, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups are English (17.8%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (16.1%).

Notably, Italian (11.6%) Maltese (2.9%) and Greek (4.8%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Tullamarine compared to regional averages of 5.2%, 1.1% and 2.7% respectively.

Tullamarine's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Tullamarine is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tullamarine has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (10.7% locally) but fewer people aged 15-24 (9.0%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.0% to 10.7%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 11.4% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Tullamarine, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 57% (425 people), reaching a total of 1,169 from its current figure of 743.