Tullamarine

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of November 2025 the suburb of Tullamarine's population is estimated at around 6,951. This reflects an increase of 218 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,733. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,895 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024, and an additional 95 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 928 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future trends, a significant population increase is forecast for the suburb in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with an expected growth of 2,626 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 36.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tullamarine recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Tullamarine has averaged approximately 45 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 225 homes. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply is likely keeping up with demand, offering buyers good choice while providing more affordable housing options with average dwelling construction costs around $403,000, below regional norms. This financial year has seen $625,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature.

New building activity shows 29.0% detached dwellings and 71.0% attached dwellings, indicating a focus on higher-density living that caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a shift from the existing housing composition of 59.0% houses. With around 160 people per dwelling approval, Tullamarine exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts suggest Tullamarine will gain approximately 2,559 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Population forecasts indicate Tullamarine will gain 2,559 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tullamarine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Tullamarine Logistics Estate, Oaklands Green, Western Ring Road (M80) Infrastructure Upgrades, and Assembly Tullamarine. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Tullamarine shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Tullamarine has a skilled workforce with strong manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.2%.

As of June 2025, there were 3,625 residents employed, which is 1.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.6%. The workforce participation rate was 58.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance. Notably, the area has a high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 5.8% of residents employed compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. In the 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 4.2%, while the labour force grew by 4.4%, resulting in a slight increase in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. For comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded an employment growth of 3.5% and a labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that Tullamarine's employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Tullamarine's median income among taxpayers was $52,374 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $61,293 during the same period. These figures are lower than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimates suggest Tullamarine's median income will be approximately $58,743 and the average income around $68,746, based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Tullamarine rank modestly, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.8% of Tullamarine's population (2,279 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tullamarine, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tullamarine's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.4% houses and 40.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures which were not provided in the original text. Home ownership in Tullamarine stood at 32.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.9% and rented ones at 35.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. The median weekly rent was $355, unlike Melbourne metro where figures were not provided. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a median household size of 2.3 people

Family households comprise 63.8% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The university qualification rate in the area is 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 33.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (22.9%). A total of 24.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 7.8% in primary, 5.1% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Tullamarine Primary School serves the local area, enrolling 230 students. The school focuses on primary education only, with secondary options available nearby. The area has a low school place ratio of 3.3 per 100 residents, suggesting many local students attend schools outside the immediate area.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 53 active transport stops in Tullamarine, consisting of bus services. These are served by 8 different routes, offering a total of 1,842 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good, with residents on average located 208 meters from the nearest stop.

Services run an average of 263 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 51% of the total population (~3,551 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively. A total of 67.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 22.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,563 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Tullamarine is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine has a significant cultural diversity, with 35.8% of its population born overseas and 36.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tullamarine, accounting for 64.1% of the population. This compares to 0% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups in Tullamarine are English (17.8%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (16.1%). Notably, Italian, Maltese, and Greek ethnicities are overrepresented in Tullamarine at 11.6%, 2.9%, and 4.8% respectively, compared to 0% regionally.

Tullamarine's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Tullamarine is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tullamarine has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (9.9% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 15-24 (8.7%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.0% to 9.9%, while the 65-74 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 10.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Tullamarine, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 71% (adding 486 people), reaching a total of 1,175 from 688. The 0-4 age group is projected to grow at a more modest rate of 9%, adding only 35 residents.