Tullamarine

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of Tullamarine is estimated at approximately 6,944 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 211 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 6,733. The current population estimate of 6,915 comes from AreaSearch's analysis of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of an additional 102 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 927 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a significant increase in the suburb of Tullamarine, with an expected growth of 2,590 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 36.9% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tullamarine recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Tullamarine averaged around 45 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 225 homes. As of FY-26, 18 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering buyers good choice while new dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $403,000. This year, there have also been $5.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character.

New building activity comprises 28.0% detached dwellings and 72.0% attached dwellings, favouring higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift contrasts with the existing housing composition of 59.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 147 people per dwelling approval, Tullamarine currently exhibits low-density characteristics. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Tullamarine's population will grow by 2,561 residents.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match this growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tullamarine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Tullamarine Logistics Estate, Oaklands Green, Western Ring Road (M80) Infrastructure Upgrades, and Assembly Tullamarine. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Tullamarine shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Tullamarine has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.3% as of December 2025. This rate is 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Tullamarine is lower at 63.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 21.1% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance. Transport, postal & warehousing has a notable concentration with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence with 5.8% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There are 1.5 workers for every resident in Tullamarine, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 0.4%, while labour force decreased by 0.7%, resulting in a unemployment rate decrease of 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a slight increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tullamarine's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Tullamarine's income level is below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Tullamarine is $52,379 and the average income stands at $61,303. This compares to figures for Greater Melbourne of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $57,418 (median) and $67,200 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Tullamarine, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. Distribution data shows 32.8% of the population fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring Greater Melbourne where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tullamarine, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Tullamarine, as per the latest Census, 59.4% of dwellings were houses while 40.6% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tullamarine stood at 32.8%, with mortgaged properties at 31.9% and rented ones at 35.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Tullamarine was $355, lower than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments were under the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.8% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 33.8% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (22.9%). A total of 24.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 7.8% in primary, 5.1% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 5.1% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tullamarine has 53 operational public transport stops, all offering bus services. These stops are served by 8 different routes, collectively facilitating 1,444 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents situated an average of 207 metres from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Tullamarine residents commute outwards, preferring cars at a rate of 90%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 21.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 206 trips daily, translating to roughly 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,548 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively, while 67.1% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 22.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,590 people), which is higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tullamarine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.8% of its population born overseas and 36.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tullamarine, accounting for 64.1% of the population, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups in Tullamarine are English (17.8%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (16.1%).

Notably, Italian, Maltese, and Greek ethnicities are overrepresented in Tullamarine compared to the regional averages: Italians comprise 11.6% of the population in Tullamarine versus 5.2% regionally, Maltese make up 2.9% versus 1.1%, and Greeks account for 4.8% versus 2.7%.

Tullamarine's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Tullamarine is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tullamarine has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (10.0% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 15-24 (9.0%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 7.0% to 10.0%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 1.8% to 2.9%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 11.4% to 10.0% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.8% to 10.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Tullamarine, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 57%, reaching 1,092 people from a starting point of 694.