Tullamarine

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the Tullamarine statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 6,949 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 216 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,733. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 6,901 in June 2024 and 95 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 927 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For future projections, AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to reach SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Tullamarine (SA2) is forecasted to grow by 2,626 persons, reflecting a total increase of 36.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tullamarine recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Tullamarine averaged around 45 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 225 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 12 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, with new supply likely keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average value of $403,000.

This financial year, there have also been $5.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. New building activity shows 28.0% detached dwellings and 72.0% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 59.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles. Tullamarine shows characteristics of a low density area with around 147 people per dwelling approval.

Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates Tullamarine is expected to grow by 2,561 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tullamarine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Tullamarine Logistics Estate, Oaklands Green, Western Ring Road (M80) Infrastructure Upgrades, and Assembly Tullamarine. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Tullamarine lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Tullamarine has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.3% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3%.

As of September 2025, 3,570 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 8.4%, which is 3.7 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Tullamarine is 58.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance. The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 5.8% of residents employed in this sector compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There are 1.5 workers for every resident in Tullamarine, indicating that it functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.3% while labour force grew by 1.6%, resulting in a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from Victoria to November 25 shows that employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tullamarine's employment mix suggests that local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Tullamarine's income level is below the national average according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended 30 June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Tullamarine was $52,379 and the average income stood at $61,303. These figures compare with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended 30 June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $56,700 (median) and $66,360 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Tullamarine, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. Distribution data shows 32.8% of the population (2,279 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tullamarine, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Tullamarine's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.4% houses and 40.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Home ownership in Tullamarine stood at 32.8%, with 31.9% of dwellings mortgaged and 35.3% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, while the median weekly rent was $355. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents being less than the national figure of $375.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a median household size of 2.3 people

Family households account for 63.8% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.2%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households making up 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 10.9% and certificates for 22.9%.

A total of 24.4% of the population is actively engaged in formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary, 5.1% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tullamarine has 53 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 1,444 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is considered good, with residents on average being located 207 metres from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 206 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,550 people). The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively. 67.1% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, 22.5% of Tullamarine's residents are aged 65 and over (1,563 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Tullamarine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.8% of its population born overseas and 36.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tullamarine, accounting for 64.1% of people, compared to None% across Greater Melbourne. The top three represented ancestry groups are English (17.8%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (16.1%).

Notably, Italian ancestry is overrepresented at 11.6%, Maltese at 2.9%, and Greek at 4.8%, compared to None% regionally for each group.

Tullamarine's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Tullamarine is 39 years, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tullamarine has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (9.9% locally) but a lower proportion of those aged 15-24 (8.7%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.0% to 9.9%, while the 65-74 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 10.0%. Population forecasts for Tullamarine in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 71% (adding 487 people), reaching a total of 1,175 from 687. The 0-4 age group is projected to grow at a more modest rate of 9%, adding just 35 residents.