Tullamarine

Tullamarine has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation for the broader area, the population of the suburb of Tullamarine was estimated at around 6,947 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 214 people (3.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,733 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 6,901 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 90 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 927 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, significant population increase is forecasted for the top quartile of national statistical areas, with the suburb of Tullamarine expected to increase by 2,615 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 37.0% in total over these 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tullamarine recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Tullamarine averaged around 45 new dwelling approvals per year. An estimated 225 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with a further 15 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $403,000. This year, $5.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Recent development consists of 28.0% detached houses and 72.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 59.0% houses), potentially due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 147 people per approval, Tullamarine reflects a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate an increase of 2,569 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Tullamarine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 27 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Tullamarine Logistics Estate, Oaklands Green, Western Ring Road (M80) Infrastructure Upgrades, and Assembly Tullamarine. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Tullamarine shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Tullamarine has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 5.3% as of December 2025. Over the past year, employment stability was relative based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, 3,564 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 63.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, a moderate 21.1% of residents worked from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. Leading employment industries among residents comprised construction, transport, postal & warehousing, and health care & social assistance.

The area showed strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.3 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical employed just 5.8% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. With a ratio of 1.5 workers per resident as at the Census, Tullamarine functioned as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.3% while labour force decreased by 0.8%, resulting in a unemployment fall of 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a rise of 0.3 percentage points in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Tullamarine. These projections estimated national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tullamarine's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes not accounting for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Tullamarine's median income among taxpayers is $52,379, with an average of $61,303. Both figures are below the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $57,688 and the average is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $56,700 (median) and $66,360 (average). Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Tullamarine rank modestly, between the 29th and 33rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.8% of locals (2,278 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999, reflecting regional patterns. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Tullamarine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tullamarine's latest Census data shows 59.4% houses and 40.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tullamarine was at 32.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.9% and rented ones at 35.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Tullamarine was $355, lower than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Tullamarine's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents less than the national figure of $375.

Tullamarine features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.8 percent of all households, including 25.4 percent couples with children, 24.4 percent couples without children, and 12.4 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.2 percent, with lone person households at 33.5 percent and group households making up 2.8 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6 people.

Educational outcomes in Tullamarine fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 22.9%. A total of 24.4% of the population is currently engaged in formal education, including 7.8% in primary, 5.1% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.8% in primary education, 5.1% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tullamarine has 53 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that collectively facilitate 1444 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically located approximately 207 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential region, most residents commute outward, with the car being the primary mode of transportation at 90%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in Tullamarine, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 21.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 206 trips per day, equating to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tullamarine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tullamarine faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (around 3,549 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively, while 67.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 23.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,632 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tullamarine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullamarine's population has a high level of cultural diversity, with 35.8% born overseas and 36.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tullamarine, accounting for 64.1% of its population, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestral groups based on country of birth of parents are English (17.8%), Australian (16.4%), and Other (16.1%).

Notably, Italian ancestry is overrepresented in Tullamarine at 11.6%, compared to the regional average of 5.2%. Maltese ancestry also stands out at 2.9% in Tullamarine versus 1.1% regionally, as does Greek ancestry at 4.8% compared to 2.7% across Greater Melbourne.

Tullamarine's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Tullamarine is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age group is notably over-represented in Tullamarine at 10.8%, while the 15-24 age group is under-represented at 9.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.0% to 10.8% of Tullamarine's population, while the 65-74 age group has declined from 11.4% to 10.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Tullamarine, with the 75-84 age group projected to grow by 58%, reaching 1,182 people from its current total of 750.