Braybrook

Population growth drivers in Braybrook are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area around Braybrook, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb's population is estimated at around 10,806 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,124 people (11.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,682 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,773, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, and an additional 337 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,501 persons per square kilometer, placing Braybrook in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Braybrook's 11.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state average (9.3%), along with the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is forecast for Braybrook, with the suburb expected to increase by 3,168 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 29.0% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Braybrook among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis indicates Braybrook has seen around 131 dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 655 homes were approved, with another 112 in FY26 so far. This results in an average of about 1.4 new residents per year for each new home over these years.

The average construction value of new dwellings is $384,000. In terms of commercial approvals, $29.9 million has been registered this financial year. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Braybrook has seen slightly more development, 12.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This level of development is well above the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. The current housing mix shows a trend towards denser development, with 76.0% attached dwellings and 24.0% standalone homes, compared to the current mix of 47.0% houses. Braybrook reflects a developing area, with around 103 people per approval.

Future projections estimate Braybrook will add approximately 3,135 residents by 2041, suggesting that housing supply should meet demand adequately under current construction levels.

Braybrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are HomeCo Braybrook, Braybrook Shopping Centre Upgrade, Defence Site Maribyrnong Redevelopment, and Sunshine Priority Precinct Vision 2050. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Braybrook has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Braybrook's workforce is well-educated with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 7.2% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.1%. As of December 2025, 5,901 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 22.7% of residents worked from home. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Transport, postal & warehousing had notable concentration with levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Construction had limited presence with 6.0% employment compared to 9.7% regionally. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census working population count. Over a 12-month period ending May-25, employment increased by 4.1% and labour force by 4.8%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 12.8% over ten years for Braybrook, based on industry-specific projections applied to its employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Braybrook is $44,816 and the average is $53,306 based on AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. This is lower than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By March 2026, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $49,127 and the average will be $58,434, accounting for a 9.62% growth in wages since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Braybrook's household income ranks at the 32nd percentile ($1,451 weekly) and personal income at the 14th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 31.2% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999 per week (3,371 individuals). Housing affordability is severe, with only 80.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 27th percentile.

Braybrook displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Braybrook, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 47.0% houses and 52.9% other dwellings. In Melbourne metro, it was 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Braybrook was 19.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented ones at 49.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Braybrook was $1,859, below Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Braybrook was $312, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Braybrook's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Braybrook features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.6% of all households, including 27.4% couples with children, 19.6% couples without children, and 16.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.4%, with lone person households at 25.7% and group households comprising 8.0%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Braybrook fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 32.8%, significantly lower than the SA3 area average of 46.1%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational pathways account for 22.5% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 13.1%. Educational participation is high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.3% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 7.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Braybrook has 44 active public transport stops, all serving buses. Five routes operate here, collectively facilitating 1,942 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 213 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Cars are the primary mode of transport (79%), followed by trains (10%) and buses (6%). Vehicle ownership is lower than the regional average, at 1.1 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 22.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 277 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Braybrook's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows Braybrook residents have relatively positive health outcomes. Mortality rates and health conditions are largely in line with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~5,185 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.5 and 6.6% of residents respectively. 75.0% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 13.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,458 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

Braybrook is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Braybrook has a population where 58.7% were born overseas, and 69.0% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Braybrook, with 34.8%. Buddhism is significantly higher here compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%, making up 18.3% of Braybrook's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Vietnamese (25.0%), Other (18.9%), and Chinese (13.2%). Notably, Filipino (3.2%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.3%. Similarly, Indian (4.9%) is higher than the regional average of 4.2%, and Macedonian (0.5%) also shows a notable divergence from its regional average of 0.7%.

Braybrook hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Braybrook's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Braybrook has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.6%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.6%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 14.6% to 16.2%, while the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has declined from 10.2% to 8.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Braybrook, with the strongest projected growth occurring among the 45-54 age group, which is expected to grow by 44%, adding 522 residents and reaching a total of 1,700.