Sunshine West

Sunshine West has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the Sunshine West statistical area (Lv2), its population is estimated at around 18,610 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 58 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,552 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 18,538 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 103 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,952 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Sunshine West has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.1%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the Sunshine West (SA2), with the area expected to expand by 3,613 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 20.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Sunshine West, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Sunshine West has seen around 36 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending in FY25, totalling an estimated 183 homes. In FY26 so far, 10 approvals have been recorded. The average construction cost value for new properties is $355,000. Commercial approvals this year amount to $34.0 million.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine West has about 65% of the building activity per person and ranks in the 33rd percentile nationally, indicating more limited buyer choices. New building activity comprises 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. The population is expected to grow by 3,784 residents by 2041, potentially outpacing housing supply if current development rates continue, which could increase buyer competition and support stronger price growth.

Population forecasts indicate Sunshine West will gain 3,784 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Sunshine West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 such projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Derrimut Industrial Precinct Expansion, Derrimut Logistics Hub (Charter Hall), Ballarat Road Upgrade - Derrimut Section, and 10-12 Marchant Crescent, Sunshine West. The following list details those projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Sunshine West lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Sunshine West has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 8.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0%.

As of September 2025, 8,890 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lags at 53.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and manufacturing. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.9% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 4.0%, labour force by 5.2%, and unemployment rose by 1.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 12.5% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest data released for financial year 2023, Sunshine West's median income among taxpayers is $47,258. The average income is $54,744. This is below the national average. Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $51,157 (median) and $59,260 (average). Census data shows individual incomes at the 7th percentile are $565 weekly, while household incomes are at the 30th percentile. The income distribution shows that 31.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 to $2,999, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 30th percentile.

Sunshine West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine West's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine West stood at 40.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (28.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $346, also in line with Melbourne metro figures. Nationally, Sunshine West's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine West features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.1% of all households, including 33.1% couples with children, 22.3% couples without children, and 16.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.9%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Sunshine West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 23.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (16.5%). Educational participation is high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.0% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 5.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 5.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine West has 89 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus services. There are 12 different routes operating in total, which together provide 3,373 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 184 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 481 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Sunshine West's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Sunshine West residents. Prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very low, approximately 49% of the total population (~9,035 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.0% and 6.8% of residents respectively. A total of 71.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.5% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 18.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,517 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Sunshine West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine West has a population where 54.3% were born overseas, with 66.2% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Sunshine West, comprising 49.2%. Buddhism is notably higher compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 12.7% of Sunshine West's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (21.1%), Vietnamese (17.6%), and Australian (10.6%). Notably, Maltese (4.8%) and Macedonian (2.6%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Greek is also higher at 4.8%.

Sunshine West's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Sunshine West is 38 years, similar to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Sunshine West has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (7.4% vs. 6.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.1% vs. 17.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the percentage of Sunshine West's population aged 75-84 increased from 6.7% to 7.4%, while the percentage of residents aged 5-14 decreased from 11.1% to 10.1%. By 2041, Sunshine West's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 55-64 age group is expected to grow by 34%, reaching 2,777 residents from 2,065 in 2021. Meanwhile, the 5-14 age group is projected to grow by only 1%, adding just 11 residents.