Ardeer

Population growth drivers in Ardeer are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Ardeer is around 3,456. This represents an increase of 286 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,170 people. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 3,323 as of June 2024, with an additional 32 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 1,622 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth rate of 9.0% since the 2021 census exceeds that of the SA3 area (2.6%), indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch projections for Ardeer are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Ardeer is forecasted to experience significant population growth, with an expected increase of 779 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 19.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ardeer, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Ardeer averaged around 14 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 73 homes. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. With population declining recently, development activity has been adequate relative to population change, benefiting buyers while new homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $334,000. This financial year, $5.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited commercial development focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ardeer records elevated construction activity, with 49.0% above the regional average per person over the past 5 years, maintaining good buyer choice and supporting existing property values. New building activity comprises 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift from the area's existing housing makeup of 77.0% houses. This trend indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring diverse, affordable housing options. Ardeer reflects a transitioning market with around 288 people per approval. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates Ardeer to grow by 667 residents through to 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Ardeer has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include Sunshine Mental Health and Wellbeing Centre, Derrimut Technology Hub, 661-663 Ballarat Road in Ardeer, and Ardeer Community Park Renewal. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Ardeer lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ardeer has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 8.8% as of September 2025, with estimated employment growth of 3.9% over the preceding year. This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

In September 2025, 1,737 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, which was higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Ardeer was lower at 68.8% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 24.3% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors in Ardeer include health care & social assistance, construction, and transport, postal & warehousing.

The area has a notably high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 6.8% of residents employed in this sector compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between the Census working population and resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment in Ardeer increased by 3.9% while the labour force grew by 4.8%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, with a labour force increase of 3.3% and a smaller unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 provide insights into potential future demand within Ardeer. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ardeer's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Ardeer had a median taxpayer income of $47,542 and an average of $55,123. This is below the national average of $69,808. In Greater Melbourne, these figures were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $51,464 (median) and $59,671 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Ardeer rank modestly, with household income at the 28th percentile, family income at the 31st percentile, and personal income at the 32nd percentile. Income brackets indicate that 34.4% of Ardeer's population (1,188 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ardeer, with only 82.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Ardeer is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ardeer's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.8% houses and 23.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ardeer was at 31.0%, aligning with Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (33.7%) or rented (35.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ardeer was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ardeer's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Ardeer features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.2% of all households, including 26.2% couples with children, 20.0% couples without children, and 14.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 32.0% and group households making up 5.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Ardeer aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Ardeer's residents aged 15+ have 27.9% with university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. The most common qualification is bachelor degrees at 18.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 30.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 19.8%. Educational participation is high, with 30.0% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (10.1%), secondary (6.2%), and tertiary (5.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ardeer has 13 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 1,766 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents typically located 259 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting in Ardeer is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 84% of residents, while 9% use trains. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 252 trips per day, equating to approximately 135 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ardeer is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Ardeer faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age cohorts but slightly more so among older individuals. Private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 1,683 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 8.4% of residents and arthritis impacting 7.3%, while 72.0% report no medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Under-65 residents have better-than-average health outcomes. Ardeer has 18.1% of residents aged 65 and over (625 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Ardeer is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ardeer has a high level of cultural diversity, with 47.8% of its population born overseas and 52.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Ardeer, comprising 47.7% of the population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented, making up 7.6% of the population compared to 4.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (19.6%), English (13.3%), and Australian (12.4%). The Other group is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, while English and Australian are notably lower than their respective averages of 20.1% and 18.4%. There are also notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups, with Polish at 3.0% (vs 0.8%), Vietnamese at 11.0% (vs 1.9%), and Maltese at 4.5% (vs 1.1%).

Ardeer's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ardeer has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 35-44 age group constitutes 18.4%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 15-24 cohort represents 9.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has risen from 4.7% to 6.5%, and the 35-44 cohort has increased from 17.3% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 19.1% to 16.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ardeer's age structure. Notably, the 45-54 group is projected to grow by 32%, adding 138 people and reaching 574 from 435. Meanwhile, the 5-14 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 1%, increasing by 2 people.