Ardeer

Population growth drivers in Ardeer are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the Ardeer statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,457. This figure represents an increase of 287 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,170. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,323 in Jun 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,623 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Ardeer (SA2) experienced a 9.1% growth since the 2021 census, outperforming the SA3 area's 2.5%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, a significant population increase in the top quartile is forecasted for the Ardeer (SA2), with an expected growth of 779 persons to 2041, reflecting a 19.6% increase over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ardeer, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Ardeer shows an average of 14 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 73 homes. In FY-26 so far, 6 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined recently, but development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, benefiting buyers while new homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $334,000. This financial year, $5.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited commercial development focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ardeer records elevated construction activity, with 49.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice and supporting existing property values. New building activity shows 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend toward denser development that appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 77.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. Ardeer reflects a transitioning market with around 288 people per approval. Looking ahead, Ardeer is expected to grow by 678 residents through to 2041, potentially leading to housing supply struggles at current development rates, which may heighten buyer competition and support price increases.

Looking ahead, Ardeer is expected to grow by 678 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Ardeer has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include Sunshine Mental Health and Wellbeing Centre, Derrimut Technology Hub, 661-663 Ballarat Road in Ardeer, and Ardeer Community Park Renewal. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Ardeer lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ardeer has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 8.8% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.3%.

As of September 2025, 1,750 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation in Ardeer lags at 57.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and transport, postal & warehousing. Employment levels in transport, postal & warehousing are notably high, at 1.7 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence with 6.8% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 4.3%, labour force grew by 5.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 0.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.0% and unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ardeer's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023 shows Ardeer had a median taxpayer income of $47,542 and an average income of $55,123. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 in Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, estimated median and average incomes for Ardeer as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,464 and $59,671 respectively. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ardeer rank modestly, between the 28th and 32nd percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 34.4% of Ardeer's population (1,189 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ardeer, with only 82.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Ardeer is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ardeer's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.8% houses and 23.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ardeer stood at 31.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 35.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $1,700 and $346 respectively. Nationally, Ardeer's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Ardeer features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.2% of all households, including 26.2% couples with children, 20.0% couples without children, and 14.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 32.0% and group households making up 5.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Ardeer aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Ardeer's educational qualifications trail Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks, with 27.9% of its residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 30.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (19.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Ardeer shows that there are currently 13 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 8 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes offer 1,766 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Ardeer is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 259 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 252 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 135 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ardeer's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Ardeer's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with the level of common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Approximately 49% of Ardeer's total population (~1,683 people) has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in Ardeer are mental health issues and arthritis, affecting 8.4 and 7.3% of residents respectively, while 72.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 73.5% across Greater Melbourne. As of the latest data (December 2021), Ardeer has 17.4% of its residents aged 65 and over (601 people). Health outcomes among seniors in Ardeer present some challenges that require more attention than those of the broader population.

Ardeer is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ardeer's population shows high cultural diversity, with 47.8% born overseas and 52.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ardeer, accounting for 47.7%. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 7.6% of Ardeer's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (19.6%), English (13.3%), and Australian (12.4%). Polish (3.0%) and Maltese (4.5%) are notably overrepresented in Ardeer compared to regional averages, while Vietnamese is underrepresented at 11.0%.

Ardeer's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ardeer's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 35-44 age group comprises 18.4%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 9.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has risen from 4.7% to 5.9%, and the 35-44 cohort has increased from 17.3% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 19.1% to 17.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ardeer's age structure. Notably, the 45-54 group is projected to grow by 35%, adding 149 people and reaching 582 from 432. Meanwhile, the 5-14 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 1%, increasing by 4 people.