Ardeer

Population growth drivers in Ardeer are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Ardeer's population is estimated at approximately 3,261 people. This reflects a growth of 91 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,170. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, indicating an estimated resident population of 3,242 for Ardeer. This results in a density ratio of 1,531 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Between the 2021 Census and November 2025, Ardeer's population grew by 2.9%, outpacing the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.6%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82% to overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, applying adjustments through weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Ardeer is forecasted to experience significant population growth, with an expected increase of 786 persons by the year 2041. This reflects a total increase of approximately 27% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ardeer, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Ardeer shows an average of approximately 14 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 74 homes. As of FY26, there has been 1 approval recorded so far. The population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate development activity relative to population size, benefiting buyers as new homes are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $334,000, which is below regional levels. This indicates more affordable housing choices for buyers.

Additionally, $2.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Ardeer has recorded 51.0% more building activity per person. This should provide buyers with ample choice. The new building activity shows 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings, indicating a trend towards denser development that appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing stock, which is currently 77.0% houses, potentially due to decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options. Ardeer has a population density of around 265 people per approval, reflecting a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ardeer is expected to grow by 881 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Ardeer has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones include Sunshine Mental Health and Wellbeing Centre, Derrimut Technology Hub, 661-663 Ballarat Road in Ardeer, and Ardeer Community Park Renewal. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Ardeer lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ardeer has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 8.5% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.7%.

As of June 2025, 1,768 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Ardeer lags at 57.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and transport, postal & warehousing, with the latter having particularly high concentration at 1.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence in Ardeer, with only 6.8% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population and resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 4.7%, labour force grew by 5.2%, resulting in a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures: employment rose by 3.5%, labour force grew by 4.0%, and unemployment also rose by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ardeer's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Ardeer had a median income among taxpayers of $47,542 and an average level of $55,123. These figures are below the national average and compare to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $53,323 (median) and $61,826 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Ardeer rank modestly, between the 28th and 32nd percentiles. Income brackets indicate 34.4% of the population (1,121 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Ardeer is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ardeer's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.8% houses and 23.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ardeer was at 31.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 35.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $340, compared to Melbourne metro's $1,700 and $346 respectively. Nationally, Ardeer's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Ardeer features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.2% of all households, including 26.2% couples with children, 20.0% couples without children, and 14.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 32.0% and group households making up 5.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Ardeer aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Ardeer trail show 27.9% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 30.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 19.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 5.9% in tertiary. Mother of God School and Ardeer Primary School serve 255 students collectively, offering balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 989). Both focus exclusively on primary education; secondary options are available nearby. There are 7.8 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 14.2, suggesting some students attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ardeer has 13 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 3031 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents living an average of 258 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are approximately 433 trips across all routes, which amounts to about 233 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ardeer's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Ardeer's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Approximately 49% of Ardeer's total population (~1,588 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in Ardeer are mental health issues and arthritis, affecting 8.4 and 7.3% of residents respectively. A total of 72.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.5% across Greater Melbourne. Ardeer has 17.4% of its residents aged 65 and over (567 people). Health outcomes among seniors in the area present some challenges that require more attention than those of the broader population.

Ardeer is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ardeer's cultural diversity is high, with 47.8% of its population born overseas and 52.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ardeer, accounting for 47.7% of residents. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 7.6% versus 12.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (19.6%), English (13.3%), and Australian (12.4%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Polish at 3.0% in Ardeer versus 1.1% regionally, Vietnamese at 11.0% versus 15.7%, and Maltese at 4.5% versus 4.6%.

Ardeer's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ardeer's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and remaining comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 35-44 age group makes up 18.4%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent at 9.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.7% to 5.9%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 17.3% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 19.1% to 17.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Ardeer's age structure: the 45-54 group will grow by 44%, reaching 582 from 404, and the 5-14 cohort grows by a modest 8%.