Burnside

Burnside lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Burnside's population is around 6833 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1033 people, a 17.8% rise since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5800 people. The change was inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 6635 in June 2025 and an additional 241 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2679 persons per square kilometer, placing Burnside in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Burnside's growth exceeded both state (9.3%) and national averages since the 2021 census, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 48.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward, exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing Burnside in the top 10 percent of Australian statistical areas. The area is expected to increase by 3369 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 46.4% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Burnside among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Burnside has recorded approximately 69 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25349 homes were approved, with an additional 32 approved so far in FY26. Each dwelling, on average, accommodates 2.6 new residents per year over these five years, indicating robust demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost of new homes is $446,000, which is higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. In terms of commercial development, Burnside has recorded $8.0 million in approvals this financial year, suggesting limited focus on commercial projects compared to Greater Melbourne, where development activity is 54.0% higher per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes nationally, with Burnside's developer confidence notably high. Recent development has been exclusively detached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban identity and catering to buyers seeking space. With around 117 people per dwelling approval, Burnside exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

By 2041, Burnside is projected to grow by 3,171 residents, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Development activity is keeping pace with this projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Burnside has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified three projects likely affecting the region: Amora Estate in Cairnlea, Modeina Estate, Taylors Creek Residential Estate, and Lake Caroline Master Plan & Activation Strategy. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Burnside has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Burnside has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 5.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.1%. As of December 2025, there were 3,343 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.6%, which is 0.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was somewhat below standard at 66.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 21.3% of residents worked from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. Burnside had particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Burnside's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Burnside SA2 had a lower than average national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $48,562 and the average income stood at $56,335, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $53,234 (median) and $61,754 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household income ranked at the 57th percentile ($1,871 weekly), while personal income was at the 23rd percentile. The predominant income cohort comprised 34.9% of locals (2,384 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the broader area where 32.8% occupied this bracket. High housing costs consumed 16.7% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 57th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Burnside is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Burnside, as per the latest Census evaluation, 85.3% of dwellings were houses while 14.7% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Melbourne's metropolitan area where 67.9% were houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Burnside stood at 31.1%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 58.4% and rented ones for 10.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Burnside was $2,000, aligning with the Melbourne metro average, while the median weekly rent was $400 compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Burnside's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Burnside features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.9% of all households, including 51.5% couples with children, 18.6% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.1%, consisting of 18.0% lone person households and 1.1% group households. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Burnside performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 30.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (19.3%). Educational participation is high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.7% in primary, 9.7% in secondary, and 5.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Burnside has 20 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by four routes offering a total of 804 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 210 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from Burnside, primarily by car (90%), with train use at 6%. The area has an average vehicle ownership of 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 21.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 114 trips per day, equating to about 40 weekly trips per individual stop.

Burnside's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Burnside residents. AreaSearch's analysis shows mortality rates and health conditions are broadly in line with national benchmarks. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is very low, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 3,245 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.2 and 6.9% of residents respectively. About 73.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.8% of residents aged 65 and over (around 1,078 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Burnside is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Burnside has a culturally diverse population, with 49.3% born overseas and 56.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Burnside, comprising 60.5% of its population. However, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 5.9% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (23.0%), Australian (12.1%), and English (10.3%). Notably, Filipino, Maltese, and Serbian ethnicities are overrepresented in Burnside compared to the regional averages of 1.3%, 1.1%, and 0.4% respectively.

Burnside's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Burnside has a median age of 37 years, matching Greater Melbourne and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group comprises 15.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne's figure, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 12.2%. Between 2021 and present, Burnside's 15-24 age group grew from 12.9% to 15.5%, and the 45-54 group increased from 12.3% to 13.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort decreased from 11.2% to 9.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Burnside's age structure. Notably, the 45-54 group is projected to grow by 61%, adding 562 people and reaching a total of 1,482 from its current figure of 919.