Burnside

Burnside lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Burnside's population is around 6,681 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 881 people (15.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,800 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,449 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 209 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,620 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Burnside's 15.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 48.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australian statistical areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 3,602 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 50.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Burnside among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Burnside has recorded around 69 residential properties granted approval per year, with 349 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 26 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.6 new residents per year for each dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), indicating healthy demand that should support property values, new homes are being built at an average construction cost of $446,000—somewhat higher than regional norms—reflecting quality-focused development. Additionally, $8.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating a limited commercial development focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Burnside has significantly less development activity (55.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This level is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. Meanwhile, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 117 people per dwelling approval, Burnside shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, Burnside is expected to grow by 3,370 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping a reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Burnside has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 5 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Amora Estate Cairnlea, Western Freeway Upgrade - Melton to Caroline Springs, Lake Caroline Master Plan & Activation Strategy, and Modeina Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Burnside has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Burnside has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 5.6%, and 3.1% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,343 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.8% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (68.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 21.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area has a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 2.0 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.4% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increase by 3.1% alongside a labour force increase of 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Burnside. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Burnside's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Burnside SA2's income level is lower than the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Burnside SA2's median income among taxpayers is $48,562 and the average income stands at $56,335, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $52,568 (median) and $60,983 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 57th percentile ($1,871 weekly), while personal income sits at the 23rd percentile. Regarding income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 34.9% of locals (2,331 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the broader area where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 57th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Burnside is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Burnside, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.3% houses and 14.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, and other dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Burnside was in line with that of Melbourne metro, at 31.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (58.4%) or rented (10.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Melbourne metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Burnside's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Burnside features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 80.9% of all households, comprising 51.5% couples with children, 18.6% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 18.0% and group households comprising 1.1% of the total. The median household size of 3.1 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Burnside performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (25.0%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (19.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 20 active transport stops operating within Burnside, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 804 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 210 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 6% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 21.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 114 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 40 weekly trips per individual stop.

Burnside's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Burnside residents, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results broadly in line with national benchmarks. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~3,173 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.2% and 6.9% of residents, respectively, while 73.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,112 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Burnside is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Burnside is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 49.3% of its population born overseas and 56.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Burnside is Christianity, which makes up 60.5% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 5.9% of the population, compared to 4.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Burnside are Other, comprising 23.0% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Australian, comprising 12.1% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 18.4%, and English, comprising 10.3% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 20.1%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Filipino is notably overrepresented at 8.3% of Burnside (vs 1.3% regionally), Maltese at 5.9% (vs 1.1%) and Serbian at 1.6% (vs 0.4%).

Burnside's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

With a median age of 37, Burnside is equal to the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and remains comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 15 - 24 age group shows strong representation at 16.3% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 11.1%. In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.9% to 16.3% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 9.8% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 12.4% to 11.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Burnside's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 15 to 24 group will grow by 53% (579 people), reaching 1,670 from 1,090.