Burnside Heights

Population growth drivers in Burnside Heights are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Burnside Heights' population is around 6450 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 73 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6377 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6443 from the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 8 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3225 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 70.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future trends, a significant population increase is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 1654 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 25.5% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Burnside Heights is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Burnside Heights has seen approximately three new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, with 17 homes approved between FY21 and FY25, and one so far in FY26. The population has fallen during this period, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $376,000.

This financial year, $400,000 worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Burnside Heights shows reduced construction activity, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. Nationally, Burnside Heights' new building activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity consists of 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift towards denser development provides accessible entry options, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. It represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition (currently 91.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

With around 1219 people per dwelling approval, Burnside Heights reflects a highly mature market. Looking ahead, Burnside Heights is expected to grow by 1,647 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Burnside Heights has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may affect this region: Kings Park Reserve Sports Facilities Upgrades, Taylors Creek Residential Estate, Aspire Community, and Modeina Estate. The following details the most relevant projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Burnside Heights ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Burnside Heights has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.8% as of December 2025, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%.

As of December 2025, 3,659 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 78.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Notably, 26.0% of residents worked from home according to Census responses. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing, with the latter showing strong specialization at twice the regional level. However, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 7.7%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on resident population vs working population counts. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Burnside Heights saw employment levels increase by 3.7% and labour force grow by 4.3%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Burnside Heights' employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Burnside Heights SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $57,685. The average income stood at $66,919. Nationally, the median was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes are approximately $63,234 (median) and $73,357 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes ranked at the 80th percentile ($2,246 weekly), while personal income ranked at the 49th percentile. Income analysis showed that 39.6% of residents (2,554 people) fell into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket. This is consistent with regional trends where 32.8% fell into the same category. Economic strength was evident with 31.6% of households earning over $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consumed 16.3% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 79th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Burnside Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Burnside Heights' latest Census data shows 90.6% houses and 9.4% other dwellings. Melbourne metro has 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Burnside Heights is 18.7%, with 63.5% mortgaged and 17.8% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's figure, while median weekly rent is $411 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Burnside Heights' mortgage repayments exceed the average of $1,863 and rents surpass the national figure of $375.

Burnside Heights features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 93.2% of all households, including 66.3% couples with children, 13.4% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 6.8%, with lone person households at 5.4% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Burnside Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 34.2% of residents aged 15+, exceeding the SA3 area average of 24.3% and Australia's rate of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 25.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 10.6% and certificates at 15.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 38.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 16.7% in primary, 9.9% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Burnside Heights has 14 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There are three different bus routes operating in the area, providing a total of 918 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility to these stops is rated as good, with residents typically located just 230 meters from the nearest one. Most residents commute outwards from this primarily residential area. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 90%, while only 7% use trains for their journeys. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling in Burnside Heights, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census data, a significant 26.0% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 131 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 65 weekly trips per individual stop.

Burnside Heights's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Burnside Heights. AreaSearch's assessment shows low mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, particularly among younger cohorts.

Private health cover is at approximately 52%, slightly lagging the average SA2 area but still higher than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.5%) and diabetes (4.2%). A total of 81.4% of residents declare no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Burnside Heights has 8.3% of residents aged 65 and over (538 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Burnside Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Burnside Heights has a population where 49.9% were born overseas, and 61.9% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Burnside Heights, with 48.8%. Buddhism, however, is more prevalent here than in Greater Melbourne, comprising 7.4% compared to the regional average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (25.1%), Indian (10.3%), and Australian (9.8%). Notably, Maltese (5.8%), Spanish (1.3%), and Vietnamese (7.9%) communities are overrepresented in Burnside Heights compared to Greater Melbourne's averages of 1.1%, 0.4%, and 1.9% respectively.

Burnside Heights's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Burnside Heights' median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The 5-14 age group makes up 19.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.2%. This 5-14 concentration is well above the national 12.0%. Between 2021 and now, residents have aged on average by 1.7 years, with the median rising from 33 to 35. Notably, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.3% to 16.1%, and the 45-54 cohort increased from 12.8% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort declined from 22.6% to 18.1%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 21.7% to 19.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 39%, adding 390 residents to reach 1,387. In contrast, both the 5-14 and 35-44 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.