Caroline Springs

Population growth drivers in Caroline Springs are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Caroline Springs' population is estimated at around 25,247, reflecting a 3.1% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 24,488 people. This increase is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 25,210 based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 52 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,027 persons per square kilometer, placing Caroline Springs in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels using weighted aggregation for areas not covered by ABS data.

Considering these projections, Caroline Springs is forecasted to experience significant population growth, increasing by 7,315 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 28.6% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Caroline Springs is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Caroline Springs averaged approximately 8 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 40 homes. As of FY26, there have been 3 approvals recorded. The population has decreased during this period.

Despite this, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes, which could benefit buyers. The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $727,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $34.7 million, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Caroline Springs shows substantially reduced construction activity. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

The area's development rate is below the national average, indicating its established nature and potentially suggesting planning limitations. New development consists of 78.0% standalone homes and 22.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. With around 5581 people per dwelling approval, Caroline Springs reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 7,210 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Caroline Springs has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Modeina Estate, Masall Estate, WestWood Estate, and Lake Caroline Master Plan & Activation Strategy. The following details the most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Caroline Springs shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Caroline Springs has a well-educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.0% as of June 2025, which is 0.6% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.0%. There are 15,306 residents in work, with workforce participation at 68.9%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have a limited presence at 6.5% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.0%, and labour force grew by 5.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5% and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points over the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caroline Springs' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Caroline Springs' median income among taxpayers was $55,335 and average income was $65,016 in financial year 2022. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $62,064 and average income will be around $72,922 based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%. According to Census 2021 data, household income ranks at the 74th percentile ($2,134 weekly) and personal income is at the 53rd percentile. Income analysis shows that 37.9% of locals (9,568 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Caroline Springs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Caroline Springs, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings. In Melbourne metro, this was 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Caroline Springs stood at 24.0%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (53.2%) or rented (22.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, above Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Caroline Springs was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $351. Nationally, Caroline Springs' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Caroline Springs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.7% of all households, including 51.3% couples with children, 17.7% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.3%, with lone person households at 14.5% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

The educational profile of Caroline Springs exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.8% among residents aged 15+, higher than the SA3 average of 24.3%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 21.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 29.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 17.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 35.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 12.3% in primary, 11.1% in secondary, and 6.0% in tertiary education. Caroline Springs has a robust network of 10 schools educating approximately 7,602 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1043) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 30.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 16.2, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Caroline Springs has 89 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 5,235 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 223 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 747 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Caroline Springs's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Caroline Springs shows excellent health outcomes, with younger age groups having a notably low prevalence of common health conditions.

Its private health cover rate stands at approximately 53%, higher than the average SA2 area (~13,267 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.2% and 5.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 77.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 73.7% in Greater Melbourne. As of 2016 data, 10.6% of Caroline Springs' population is aged 65 and over (2,676 people).

Caroline Springs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Caroline Springs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.4% of its population born overseas and 47.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Caroline Springs, comprising 56.9% of the population. Notably, the category 'Other' makes up 3.0% of the population, compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Caroline Springs are 'Other', Australian, and English, representing 21.8%, 13.1%, and 11.7% respectively. These figures differ from regional averages: Australian is lower at 13.1% (regional average: 18.6%), and English is lower at 11.7% (regional average: 16.9%). Some ethnic groups are notably overrepresented in Caroline Springs compared to Greater Melbourne, including Maltese at 6.3% vs 5.1%, Filipino at 5.9% vs 3.4%, and Macedonian at 3.0% vs 1.8%.

Caroline Springs's population is younger than the national pattern

Caroline Springs's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Caroline Springs has a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (17.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.2%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 55 to 64 age group has increased from 8.8% to 10.6%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 14.7% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 16.8% to 14.3%, and the 35 to 44 group has dropped from 16.7% to 14.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Caroline Springs's age profile. The 55 to 64 cohort is expected to grow by 79%, adding 2,104 residents to reach 4,781. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 group is projected to decrease by 84 residents.