Caroline Springs

Population growth drivers in Caroline Springs are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of the Caroline Springs statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 25,348. This reflects an increase of 860 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,488. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 25,325 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 52 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,039 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projected demographic shifts, the Caroline Springs (SA2) is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas. By 2041, based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is expected to increase by 7,314 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 28.0% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Caroline Springs is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Caroline Springs averaging around 9 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years from FY17 to FY21. This totals an estimated 49 homes. In FY26 so far, 6 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes, which may positively impact buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $759,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, $56.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Caroline Springs shows substantially reduced construction activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 82.0% standalone homes and 18.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes.

With around 5023 people per dwelling approval, Caroline Springs reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 7,108 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Caroline Springs has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects likely affecting this region. Notable initiatives are Modeina Estate, Masall Estate, WestWood Estate, and Lake Caroline Master Plan & Activation Strategy. The following details projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Caroline Springs shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Caroline Springs has a well-educated workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 4.2% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment growth in the area was estimated at 4.6%. As of September 2025, there were 15,045 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, 0.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation was 68.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Transport, postal & warehousing had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had limited presence, with 6.5% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, labour force grew by 5.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 showed VIC employment growth of 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caroline Springs's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Caroline Springs had a median income among taxpayers of $55,325 and an average income of $65,005 in financial year 2023, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $59,889 (median) and $70,368 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows household income ranks at the 74th percentile ($2,134 weekly), while personal income sits at the 53rd percentile. Income analysis reveals that 37.9% of locals (9,606 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Caroline Springs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Caroline Springs' dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 89.9% houses and 10.1% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Melbourne metro had 90.9% houses and 9.1% others. Home ownership in Caroline Springs was 24.0%, similar to Melbourne's 24.0%. Mortgaged dwellings were 53.2% and rented ones 22.8%. Median monthly mortgage repayments were $1,950, above Melbourne's $1,800 average. Median weekly rent was $400, compared to Melbourne's $351. Nationally, Caroline Springs' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863 and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Caroline Springs features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.7% of all households, including 51.3% couples with children, 17.7% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.3%, with lone person households at 14.5% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.0.

The educational profile of Caroline Springs exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 30.8% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA3 area average of 24.3%. This reflects the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 21.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (17.6%). Educational participation is notably high at 35.9%, including 12.3% in primary education, 11.1% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Caroline Springs has 87 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 3,005 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average located 224 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, these routes run an average of 429 trips, which amounts to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Caroline Springs's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Caroline Springs shows excellent health outcomes, with younger age groups having particularly low prevalence of common health conditions.

Its private health cover rate is approximately 53%, higher than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.2% and 5.5% of residents respectively. A total of 77.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 73.7% in Greater Melbourne. As of the latest data (June 20XX), 10.6% of Caroline Springs' population is aged 65 and over, numbering approximately 2,686 people.

Caroline Springs is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Caroline Springs has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.4% of its population born overseas and 47.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Caroline Springs, accounting for 56.9% of the population. However, the most notable overrepresentation is in the 'Other' category, which comprises 3.0% of the population compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (21.8%), Australian (13.1%), and English (11.7%). Notably, Australian and English ancestry are lower than the regional averages of 18.6% and 16.9%, respectively. There are also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Maltese (6.3% vs regional 5.1%), Filipino (5.9% vs 3.4%), and Macedonian (3.0% vs 1.8%) are notably overrepresented in Caroline Springs.

Caroline Springs's population is younger than the national pattern

Caroline Springs's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of approximately 37 years and slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Caroline Springs has a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (17.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.2%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 55 to 64 has increased from 8.8% to 10.6%, while the 15 to 24 age group has risen from 14.7% to 16.4%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 16.8% to 14.3%, and the 35 to 44 age group has dropped from 16.7% to 14.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Caroline Springs's age profile. The 55 to 64 cohort is projected to grow by 78%, adding 2,094 residents to reach a total of 4,781. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 age group is expected to decrease by 97 residents.