Keilor Lodge

Keilor Lodge has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Keilor Lodge is around 1,688. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 1,668 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,686 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and one additional validated new address since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,962 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Keilor Lodge's 1.2% growth since census is within 1.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. The population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Keilor Lodge is expected to grow by approximately 70 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of around 3.7% in total over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Keilor Lodge is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Keilor Lodge has around 6 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 33 homes were approved, with one additional approval in FY-26. The area's population decline suggests new supply is meeting demand, offering buyers good choice.

Average construction value of new properties is $591,000, indicating focus on the premium market. In FY-26, $8.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Keilor Lodge has slightly more development activity, 30.0% above regional average per person over the five-year period, supporting buyer choice and existing property values.

However, building activity has slowed recently. New building activity comprises 89.0% detached dwellings and 11.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Keilor Lodge's suburban nature with emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The area has approximately 1678 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections estimate Keilor Lodge will add 62 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth exceeding current forecasts.

Keilor Lodge has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a single project likely to impact the area: Taylors Lakes Ambulance Branch, Melbourne Airport Rail (SRL Airport), Melbourne Airport Rail, and Melton Level Crossing Removals are key projects. The following details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Keilor Lodge performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Keilor Lodge's skilled workforce is notable, particularly in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.1% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.2%.

Residents' participation in the workforce was high at 77.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 28.9% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction shows significant concentration with levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area's limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 6.2%, labour force also grew by 6.2%, and unemployment remained essentially unchanged at 2.5%. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise to 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Keilor Lodge's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023. In Keilor Lodge, median income among taxpayers was $53,410 and average income stood at $65,285. These figures were slightly below national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,816 (median) and $70,671 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Keilor Lodge's household income ranked at the 78th percentile ($2,198 weekly), with personal income at the 43rd percentile. Income analysis showed that 30.9% of residents (521 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% occupied this range. Higher earners were substantial, with 34.1% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retained 89.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Keilor Lodge is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Keilor Lodge's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Keilor Lodge stood at 50.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.5% and rented ones at 12.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,993, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $421, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Keilor Lodge's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Keilor Lodge features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.9% of all households, including 44.8% that are couples with children, 29.7% that are couples without children, and 11.6% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 12.1%, with lone person households at 10.9% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Keilor Lodge aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 32.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (22.2%). Educational participation is high, with 25.7% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (7.4%), secondary (7.4%), and tertiary (6.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.4% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Keilor Lodge has seven active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 279 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 209 meters from the nearest transport stop. Most residents commute outward due to Keilor Lodge being primarily residential. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 92%, while train usage accounts for 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 28.9% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 39 trips per day, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Keilor Lodge's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows Keilor Lodge performed well across health metrics, as per AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups had low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover was at approximately 53% of the total population (~888 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis (affecting 8.0% of residents) and asthma (7.3%). A total of 70.2% of residents reported no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Under-65 residents had better than average health outcomes. Keilor Lodge has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.3% (393 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes were strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Keilor Lodge was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Keilor Lodge had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 29.7% of its residents born overseas and 30.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Keilor Lodge, comprising 71.0% of the population, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were Italian (16.9%), Australian (15.2%), and English (14.9%).

Notably, Maltese (5.6%) Croatian (4.4%), and Polish (1.4%) groups had higher representations in Keilor Lodge compared to regional averages of 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.8% respectively.

Keilor Lodge hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Keilor Lodge has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and is significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 16.9% of Keilor Lodge's population, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 35-44 cohort makes up 10.4%. This concentration in the 55-64 bracket is notably higher than the national figure of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 65-74 age group has increased from 11.1% to 13.7%, and the 75-84 cohort has risen from 5.5% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.5% to 11.4%, and the 15-24 group has dropped from 14.0% to 12.7%. Demographic projections suggest Keilor Lodge's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 75-84 group expected to grow by 55% (68 people), reaching 193 from 124. This growth is driven entirely by those aged 65 and above. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 45-54 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.