Ascot Vale

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Ascot Vale's population was around 16,252 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 1,061 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,191. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,154 in June 2024 and an additional 266 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 4,232 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 7.0% growth since the census positioned it within 1.9 percentage points of the national average (8.9%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 70.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends, an above median population growth was projected for the area, expected to increase by 2,500 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 14.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ascot Vale has averaged approximately 78 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 394 homes. As of FY26, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, one person per year moves to the area for each dwelling built during these years (FY21-FY25). This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost of new properties is $242,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers. In FY26, there have been $7.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records approximately 57% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 27th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This suggests somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. New development consists of 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% attached dwellings, showing a trend towards denser development that appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This is a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 46.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With approximately 597 people per dwelling approval, Ascot Vale reflects a highly mature market. Future projections estimate that Ascot Vale will add around 2,402 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Ascot Vale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Highpoint Urban Village, Flemington Housing Precinct Renewal (Various Sites), Ascot Vale Library Redevelopment, and Flemington Green. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Ascot Vale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented, an unemployment rate of 8.5%, and estimated employment growth of 4.9% over the past year as of September 2025. The area has 9,268 residents in work while its unemployment rate is 3.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation is at 68.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. The area specializes in professional & technical jobs with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while construction shows lower representation at 6.8% versus the regional average of 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

In the past year, employment increased by 4.9% alongside labour force increasing by 4.9%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points during this period. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Ascot Vale SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $60,258 and an average income of $82,819 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. By September 2025, accounting for a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $67,585 (median) and $92,890 (average). In Ascot Vale, household, family, and personal incomes ranked highly nationally, between the 77th and 85th percentiles in 2021 Census figures. Income distribution data showed that 26.3% of individuals earned between $1,500 - $2,999, which was consistent with broader trends across the area showing 32.8% in the same category. Economic strength was evident with 37.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Despite high housing costs consuming 15.2% of income, disposable income remained at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 42.6% houses and 57.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale was 27.7%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 38.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,458, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,200. The median weekly rent figure was $370, matching Melbourne metro's figure. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,458 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 versus the national figure of $375.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 6.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 49.4% possess university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.5%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 63 active transport stops operating within Ascot Vale. These include a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. There are 12 individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 6725 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 960 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Both young and old age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of the total population (9,962 people), compared to 67.2% across Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.9 and 7.5% of residents respectively, while 72.7% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. Ascot Vale has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,293 people), which is lower than the 16.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ascot Vale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale, surveyed in 2016, had a population where 29.1% were born overseas, with 26.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 44.7%. Islam's representation was higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 4.4%, making up 5.4% in Ascot Vale.

The top three ancestry groups were English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Notably, Italians (7.7%) and Vietnamese (2.6%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 10.2% and 1.8%, respectively. Maltese representation was slightly higher at 1.4%.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale has a median age of 37, which is equal to Greater Melbourne's figure and comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 45-54 age group is strongly represented at 13.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 10.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 10.5% to 11.6% of the population, while the 5-14 cohort has declined from 11.3% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is expected to grow by 35%, adding 637 people and reaching a total of 2,450 from the previous count of 1,812. Conversely, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.