Ascot Vale
Statistical Area - sa2

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Ascot Vale's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 16,252 people. This figure represents an increase of 1,061 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,191. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,154 in June 2024 and an additional 266 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,232 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale within the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 7.0% since the census is competitive, being only 1.9 percentage points below the national average of 8.9%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 70.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, Ascot Vale is projected to have above median population growth nationally, with an expected increase of 2,500 persons by 2041 based on the latest population numbers, representing a total gain of 14.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ascot Vale has averaged approximately 78 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 394 homes. As of FY26, there have been 5 approvals recorded so far. On average, 1 person moves to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new properties is $242,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

This financial year has seen $7.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Comparatively, Ascot Vale records about 57% of Greater Melbourne's building activity per person and ranks among the 28th percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established properties. New development consists of 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% attached dwellings, a trend that provides accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Ascot Vale has around 597 people per dwelling approval, indicating a highly mature market.

Future projections estimate an addition of 2,402 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Ascot Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely to affect the area. Key projects include Highpoint Urban Village, Ascot Vale Library Redevelopment, The Archer - Flemington Racecourse Residential Development, and Flemington Green. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Ascot Vale shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 8.6% as of June 2025, which is 3.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

The estimated employment growth over the past year was 5.8%. There were 9,507 residents employed in June 2025 while workforce participation was at 68.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. The area specializes in professional & technical jobs with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 6.8% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 5.8% while labour force grew by 7.1%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Ascot Vale had a median taxpayer income of $60,258 and an average income of $82,819 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures were among the highest in Australia, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $67,585 (median) and $92,890 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ascot Vale ranked highly nationally, between the 78th and 85th percentiles. Income distribution showed that 26.3% of individuals earned between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with broader trends across the area at 32.8%. Economic strength was evident with 37.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consumed 15.2% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 42.6% houses and 57.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale stood at 27.7%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (38.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,458, higher than Melbourne's average of $2,200. Median weekly rent in Ascot Vale was $370, equal to Melbourne metro's figure but lower than the national average of $375. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,458 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.8% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households making up 6.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. 49.4% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 13.5% and graduate diplomas at 5.2%. Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education. There are six schools operating within Ascot Vale, educating approximately 1,050 students. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1086. The educational mix includes three primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (6.5) fall below the regional average (12.5), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 63 active transport stops operating within Ascot Vale. These comprise a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. There are 12 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 6725 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent; residents typically live 157 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 960 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows Ascot Vale performed well across various health metrics. Both younger and older residents had low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover was high at approximately 61% (9,962 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 67.2%.

Nationally, the average is 55.3%. Mental health issues affected 8.9% of Ascot Vale residents, while asthma impacted 7.5%. A total of 72.7% declared themselves free from medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.0%. The area has 14.1% (2,293 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 16.0%. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Ascot Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale, surveyed in June 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas. Its population born overseas was 29.1%, and those speaking languages other than English at home comprised 26.8%. Christianity dominated Ascot Vale's religious landscape with 44.7% of the population, but Islam was more prevalent here compared to Greater Melbourne, representing 5.4% versus 4.4%.

Ancestry-wise, the top three groups were English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Notable variations existed in Italian (7.7%, versus regional 10.2%), Vietnamese (2.6%, versus 1.8%), and Maltese (1.4%, versus 1.6%) representations.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 age group comprises 13.2% in Ascot Vale compared to Greater Melbourne. The 5-14 cohort makes up 10.2%, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne figure. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.2%. By 2041, projections indicate significant changes in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is expected to grow by 35%, reaching 2,450 people from 1,812. Meanwhile, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease.