Ascot Vale

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Ascot Vale's population was approximately 16,295 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,104 people, a 7.3% rise since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 15,191. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,154 in June 2024 and an additional 275 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,243 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale in the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch, indicating high demand for land in the area. The 7.3% growth since the census is within 2.6 percentage points of the national average (9.9%), suggesting competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 70.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting with a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Ascot Vale is projected to increase by 2,500 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 14.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ascot Vale averaged approximately 78 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 394 homes. As of FY26, 16 approvals have been recorded. On average, one person has moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost of new properties is $242,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

This year, Ascot Vale has seen $7.1 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating its primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records about 57% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 27th percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. New development consists of 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser development that appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift addresses reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 597 people per dwelling approval, Ascot Vale reflects a highly mature market.

Future projections estimate an addition of 2,359 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Ascot Vale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Highpoint Urban Village, Ascot Vale Library Redevelopment, Flemington Green, and Holland Court Flemington housing. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Ascot Vale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 8.5% as of September 2025, which is 3.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%.

There are 9,268 residents currently in work and workforce participation stands at 74.3%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 45.5% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries of employment include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Ascot Vale has a particular specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 6.8% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.9%, while labour force also grew by 4.9% with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Ascot Vale SA2 was $62,880, and the average was $82,400 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $68,068 (median) and $89,198 (average), based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Ascot Vale's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 77th and 85th percentiles nationally according to the 2021 Census figures. The $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 26.3% of the community (4,285 individuals), consistent with broader trends showing 32.8% in the same category across the broader area. Economic strength is evident with 37.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 78th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale was 27.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (38.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ascot Vale was $2,458, above Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ascot Vale was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,458 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 against the national figure of $375.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 6.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Ascot Vale's educational attainment exceeds national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 49.4% have university qualifications, surpassing Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (30.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.5%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational pathways account for 22.3%, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary, 8.0% in tertiary, and 6.4% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 64 active transport stops operating within Ascot Vale. These comprise a mix of lightrail and buses serviced by 9 individual routes providing 8,154 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 70%, while 13% use train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 45.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 1,164 trips per day across all routes equating to approximately 127 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were both low across young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was found to be exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population, which is 9,760 people, compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.9 and 7.5% of residents respectively. 72.7% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.8% of residents aged 65 and over, which is 2,403 people. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ascot Vale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale, surveyed between June 2016 and June 2021, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas with 29.1% of residents born overseas and 26.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 44.7% of Ascot Vale's population. Islam was notably overrepresented at 5.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Significant differences existed in the representation of Italian (7.7% vs regional 5.2%), Vietnamese (2.6% vs 1.9%), and Maltese (1.4% vs 1.1%) ethnic groups.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38 years. The age group of 45-54 has a strong presence at 13.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 10.1%. Between 2021 and present day, the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 7.4% to 8.7%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 10.5% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55 to 64 group is projected to grow by 33%, adding 605 people and reaching a total of 2,450 from its current figure of 1,844. Meanwhile, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to have reduced numbers.