Ascot Vale

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Ascot Vale's population was approximately 16,398 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,207 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,191. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 16,398 in June 2025 and 277 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,270 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale within the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 7.9% growth since the census is close to the SA3 area's 9.0%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by the first dataset. Applying growth rates by age group from these aggregations, Ascot Vale is projected to have an above median population growth nationally, increasing by 2,335 persons to 2041 based on latest ERP numbers, reflecting a total gain of 14.2% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ascot Vale has averaged approximately 78 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 394 homes. As of FY26, 17 approvals have been recorded. On average, only one person per year moves to the area for each dwelling built during these years (FY21-FY25), indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice while allowing for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost of new properties is $242,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

In FY26, there have been $7.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records around 56% of building activity per person and ranks among the 27th percentile nationally when considering buyer options, suggesting somewhat limited choices while strengthening demand for established properties. New development consists of 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% attached dwellings, indicating a trend towards denser development that appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 597 people per dwelling approval, Ascot Vale demonstrates a highly mature market.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 2,335 residents by 2041. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Ascot Vale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Highpoint Urban Village, Ascot Vale Library Redevelopment, Holland Court, Flemington housing, and Ascot Vale Estate Public Housing Renewal (Dunlop Avenue). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Ascot Vale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 8.6% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.5%.

As of that date, 9,337 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was 74.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 45.5% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment were health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training.

Ascot Vale had a particular specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, construction showed lower representation at 6.8% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 4.5% while labour force increased by 4.6%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insight into potential future demand within Ascot Vale. These projections suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Ascot Vale SA2 is $62,880, with an average of $82,400, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. These figures are among the highest in Australia, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $68,929 (median) and $90,327 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ascot Vale rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 85th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 26.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with broader trends across the area showing 32.8% in the same category. Economic strength is evident through 37.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale was at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 38.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,458, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure for Ascot Vale was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,458 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 than the national figure of $375.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.8% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households making up 6.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 49.4% hold university qualifications compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.5%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas making up 9.6% and certificates 12.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 8.0% in tertiary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 64 active transport stops operating within Ascot Vale. These include a mix of light rail and bus services. Nine individual routes serve these stops, collectively providing 8,154 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest stop. Ascot Vale is primarily residential, with most residents commuting outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transport at 70%, while 13% use the train.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 45.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,164 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 127 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (9,822 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.9 and 7.5% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 72.7%, declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, comparable to the 72.6% figure for Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents showed low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,379 people), with health outcomes among seniors ranking above average, broadly in line with national averages.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ascot Vale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale, surveyed in June 2016, exhibited higher cultural diversity than most local areas. Its population born overseas constituted 29.1%, while those speaking a language other than English at home comprised 26.8%. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 44.7% of residents.

Islam's representation in Ascot Vale stood at 5.4%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 5.6%. The top three ancestral groups were English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Notably, Italians were overrepresented at 7.7% compared to the regional average of 5.2%, Vietnamese at 2.6% versus 1.9%, and Maltese at 1.4% against a regional average of 1.1%.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 age group is notably represented at 13.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 10.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has grown from 7.4% to 8.7% of the population, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.5% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is projected to grow by 33%, adding 585 people and reaching a total of 2,368 from the current 1,782. Meanwhile, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.