Ascot Vale
Statistical Area - sa2

Ascot Vale has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Ascot Vale's population was approximately 16,145 as of August 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 954 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,191. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 16,154 in June 2024 and the validation of 221 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,204 persons per square kilometer, placing Ascot Vale within the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 6.3% growth rate from census to August 2025 is close to the national average of 8.6%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 70.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in Ascot Vale.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to calculate population growth at the SA2 level. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these trends, Ascot Vale is projected to have an above median population growth, increasing by approximately 2,500 persons by 2041, representing a total gain of 15.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ascot Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ascot Vale averages approximately 78 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Between FY21-FY25394 dwellings were approved; as of FY26, there have been 3 approvals. Over these five years, an average of one person moved to the area per dwelling built.

This pace suggests new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $909,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY26, there have been $7.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Ascot Vale's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ascot Vale records about 57% of building activity per person and ranks at the 28th percentile nationally for buyer options, indicating somewhat limited choices while strengthening demand for established properties. New development consists of 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% attached dwellings, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This shift towards denser development is a notable change from the current housing mix (46.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 597 people per dwelling approval, Ascot Vale exhibits a highly mature market. Future projections estimate an increase of 2,509 residents by 2041. Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Ascot Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Flemington Racecourse Development, Highpoint Urban Village, Ascot Vale Library Redevelopment, and Flemington Public Housing Estate Renewal. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment landscape in Ascot Vale shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Ascot Vale has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 8.6% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.8%.

As of June 2025, 9,507 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is at 68.8%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. The area specializes in professional & technical jobs with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, but construction shows lower representation at 6.8% compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 5.8%, labour force grew by 7.1%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% with a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data as of Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ascot Vale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these are illustrative extrapolations based on national trends without consideration for local population changes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Ascot Vale had a median taxpayer income of $60,258 and an average income of $82,819 in financial year 2022, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data. These figures were among the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By March 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $66,350 and an average income of $91,192, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census showed household, family, and personal incomes in Ascot Vale ranking between the 78th and 85th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data indicated that 26.3% of individuals earned between $1,500 and $2,999, which was consistent with broader trends across the broader area at 32.8%. Economic strength was evident with 37.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Despite high housing costs consuming 15.2% of income, disposable income remained at the 78th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Ascot Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ascot Vale's dwelling structure in the latest Census showed 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 42.6% houses and 57.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Vale was 27.7%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 38.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,458, above Melbourne's average of $2,200. Median weekly rent in Ascot Vale was $370, matching Melbourne metro's figure. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ascot Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 30.1% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 6.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3 people.

Ascot Vale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Ascot Vale is notable, with 49.4% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% statewide as of the latest data. Bachelor degrees are most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.5%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational pathways account for 22.3%, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 12.7%. Educational participation is high, with 30.6% currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.1% in primary, 8.0% in tertiary, and 6.4% in secondary education as of the latest figures.

Six schools operate within Ascot Vale, educating approximately 1,050 students, with above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1086). The educational mix includes three primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents are 6.5, below the regional average of 12.5, suggesting some students may attend schools in nearby areas. Note that for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows 63 active transport stops in Ascot Vale. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 12 individual routes operating.

Collectively, these provide 6725 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 157 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 960 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per stop.

Ascot Vale's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale. Both young and old age cohorts have a low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of the total population (9896 people), compared to 67.2% across Greater Melbourne.

Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.9% and 7.5% of residents respectively. A total of 72.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. Ascot Vale has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2278 people), which is lower than the 16.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ascot Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Vale, surveyed in June 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 29.1% of its population born overseas and 26.8% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 44.7%. Islam was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 5.4% vs 4.4%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (20.2%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (11.8%). Notable differences existed in Italian (7.7% vs regional 10.2%), Vietnamese (2.6% vs 1.8%), and Maltese (1.4% vs 1.6%) representation.

Ascot Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Ascot Vale's median age is 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 45-54 age group comprises 13.2% of Ascot Vale's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 5-14 age group constitutes 10.2%, lower than the Greater Melbourne figure. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 11.6%. Meanwhile, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 11.3% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is expected to grow by 36%, adding 649 people and reaching a total of 2,450 from its previous figure of 1,800. Both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease in number.