Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Pascoe Vale statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 19,806 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,635 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,171 people in Pascoe Vale (SA2). The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 19,488 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and an additional 234 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,977 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 9.0% growth since census is within 0.7 percentage points of the national average (9.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 9,514 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 46.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pascoe Vale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Pascoe Vale averaged around 143 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 715 homes. So far in FY-26, 60 approvals have been recorded. Over these 5 years, there was an average of 0.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed. This suggests supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential for population growth above projections.

New properties are being constructed at an average value of $489,000, indicating developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, there have been $425,000 in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Building activity shows 23.0% detached dwellings and 77.0% attached dwellings, a trend towards denser development that provides accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, currently at 48.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

With around 112 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale shows characteristics of a growth area. Latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate indicates Pascoe Vale will gain 9,169 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Pascoe Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects that could affect the area. Notable projects include: 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Coburg Health and Community Services Precinct, Assembly Broadmeadows, and M-City 2 - Oak Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Pascoe Vale has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.2%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of September 2025, there are 11,899 residents employed, and the area's unemployment rate is 1.5 percentage points lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Pascoe Vale stands at 68.1%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Notably, public administration & safety is particularly prominent, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, retail trade employs only 8.2% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.8%. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, while labour force grew by 1.7%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.1 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis). In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, and employment growth is slightly higher than Victoria's at 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Pascoe Vale suburb's income level is high nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers in Pascoe Vale suburb is $61,952 and average income stands at $75,380. Greater Melbourne's figures are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Pascoe Vale suburb would be approximately $67,063 (median) and $81,599 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Pascoe Vale suburb cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. Income distribution reveals that predominant cohort spans 34.0% of locals (6,734 people) in $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with broader area where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, placing disposable income at the 67th percentile. Pascoe Vale suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Pascoe Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types

Pascoe Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 47.9% houses and 52.0% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale stood at 29.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.2% and rented ones at 35.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, and the median weekly rent was recorded as $400. Nationally, Pascoe Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a median household size of 2.4 people

Family households constitute 67.4% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 28.0% and group households making up 4.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pascoe Vale is notably high, with 40.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to the Australian average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for the area, positioning it favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.1% and certificates for 15.9%.

Educational participation is notably high in Pascoe Vale, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 6.5% in tertiary education, and 6.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pascoe Vale has 71 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are operated by 8 different routes, collectively handling 4,007 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 177 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 586 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 57 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pascoe Vale is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pascoe Vale shows better-than-average health outcomes with fewer common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages.

However, certain older, at-risk cohorts have a higher prevalence of these conditions. Approximately 57% (~11,208 people) of Pascoe Vale's total population has private health cover, which is quite high. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.0% and 7.7% of residents respectively. Around 72.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. Pascoe Vale has 13.8% (2,733 people) of its population aged 65 and over. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population, they present some challenges that need to be addressed.

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale has a high level of cultural diversity, with 32.0% of its population born overseas and 35.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Pascoe Vale, making up 48.6% of people. Islam is overrepresented in Pascoe Vale compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 8.1% of the population.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (16.9%), English (16.5%), and Italian (14.6%). Notably, Greek (4.6%), Lebanese (2.5%), and Maltese (1.6%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Pascoe Vale compared to regional averages.

Pascoe Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Pascoe Vale has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (18.4%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 17.2% to 18.4%, while the 25-34 age cohort has decreased from 19.2% to 18.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Pascoe Vale's age profile, with the strongest growth expected in the 45-54 cohort, which is projected to grow by 67%, adding 1,595 residents to reach a total of 3,972.