Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

According to evaluations of ABS demographics data for the surrounding region, combined with fresh street addresses verified by AreaSearch since the Census, the resident count of Pascoe Vale stands at approximately 19,970 in May 2026. This represents a rise of 1,799 residents (9.9%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 18,171 individuals. This trend is calculated using the resident total of 19,781, determined by AreaSearch after examining the latest ABS ERP release (June 2025) along with 328 validated new addresses added after the Census. Such a population size results in a density ratio of 4,010 persons per square kilometer, placing the locality in the top 10% of all areas analyzed by AreaSearch, highlighting the high demand for local land. The 9.9% rate of growth in Pascoe Vale since the 2021 census was higher than the state level of 9.3% as well as the national benchmark, establishing the suburb as a leader in regional growth. The main driver of this expansion was overseas migration, which was responsible for roughly 73.0% of the overall population increases in recent times.

AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia for every SA2 region, which were published in 2024 utilizing 2022 as the base year. For SA2 regions lacking this coverage, projections from the VIC State Government's 2023 release are utilized, adjusting them through a weighted combination of growth figures from LGA to SA2 levels. The age cohort growth projections derived from these models are also applied to all locations for the years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends indicate that the area will experience rapid expansion, ranking in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationwide. Aggregated SA2-level modeling projects an increase of 9,325 residents by 2041, which translates to a total expansion of 45.8% over the course of the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pascoe Vale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

According to building approval figures from the ABS compiled by AreaSearch for the statistical area, Pascoe Vale has averaged about 141 residential building permits annually, translating to an estimated 709 dwellings over the prior 5 financial years. Thus far during FY-26, there have been 106 approvals recorded. With an average of 1.2 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), local supply and demand appear well balanced, promoting steady conditions, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $489,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, commercial building permits have reached $425,000 during this financial year, pointing to a market dominated by residential activity.

Of the housing built recently, standalone houses make up 23.0% while townhouses or apartments comprise 77.0%. Concentrating on medium and high-density options provides more economical purchase pathways and fits the needs of downsizers, property investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a distinct departure from the current housing stock (which stands at 48.0% houses), indicating a decline in available building sites and reflecting evolving lifestyle trends and a demand for more varied, budget-friendly housing choices. With a ratio of approximately 118 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking forward, projections based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly dataset show Pascoe Vale adding 9,136 residents by 2041. Given the current pace of construction, the volume of housing supply could fall short of demographic growth, which may intensify competition among purchasers and help drive up values.

Pascoe Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning initiatives, and major developments have a significant influence on property market performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that are likely to influence the local area. Notable projects include the Coburg Health and Community Services Precinct, 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Assembly Broadmeadows, and M-City 2 - Oak Park, with the main projects of interest outlined below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Pascoe Vale demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Pascoe Vale is characterized by a workforce with high levels of education, strong representation in professional service industries, an unemployment rate of only 2.5%, and stable employment patterns over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregations of regional statistical data. In March 2026, the employed resident count reached 11,933, while the unemployment rate remained 2.2% lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.8%, and the participation rate was typical at 74.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.2%. Census figures indicate that a high proportion of employed residents (37.9%) performed their jobs from home, although this should be interpreted in the context of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary sectors employing residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. Public administration & safety shows a notable concentration in the area, with its employment share reaching 1.4 times the regional proportion. Conversely, the retail trade sector is less prominent, employing 8.2% of the local workforce compared to 9.8% across the region. The suburb's residential nature is reflected in the contrast between the local working population and the total resident workforce, pointing to limited local job opportunities.

Based on AreaSearch's compilation of SALM and ABS statistics for the surrounding statistical regions, the 12 months ending March 2026 saw local employment grow by 0.1% while the overall labour force contracted by 0.4%, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment expansion of 2.1% and labour force expansion of 2.3%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point increase. National employment projections from May-25 published by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context regarding future labor demand in Pascoe Vale. These models, spanning five and ten-year horizons, have been applied to the local workforce structure to project future trends. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the rates of change differ significantly by industry. Applying these national industry trends to the local sector mix indicates that employment among residents would rise by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years (note that this is a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not account for localized population trends).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to the compilation of postcode-level ATO data released for the financial year 2023 by AreaSearch, taxpayers in the suburb of Pascoe Vale recorded a median income of $61,952 and an average income of $75,380. These figures are elevated on a national scale and compare to Greater Melbourne figures of $57,688 and $75,164. Adjusting these values for the 9.62% Wage Price Index growth observed since financial year 2023 yields estimated figures of approximately $67,912 for the median and $82,632 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census reports that household, family, and individual incomes in Pascoe Vale fall around the 71st percentile nationally. Looking at income cohorts, the $1,500 - 2,999 range is the most common, accounting for 34.0% of the population (6,789 people), which aligns closely with the Greater Melbourne proportion of 32.8%. High housing costs absorb 15.5% of earnings, yet strong wages keep the net disposable income level at the 67th percentile, and the suburb sits in the 7th decile for SEIFA income status.

Pascoe Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The mix of dwelling types in Pascoe Vale at the time of the latest Census stood at 47.9% houses and 52.0% other options (comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and alternative dwellings), which contrasts with the Greater Melbourne split of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Pascoe Vale, standing at 29.1%, was slightly lower than the metropolitan Melbourne average, with the remaining homes occupied by individuals with a mortgage (35.2%) or tenants (35.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,100 was higher than the Melbourne metro median of $2,000, while the median weekly rental cost was $400 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale's mortgage costs are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents exceed the national benchmark of $375.

Pascoe Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 67.4%, which includes couples with children at 31.3%, couples without children at 24.7%, and single parent households at 9.9%. The remaining 32.6% consist of non-family households, with lone person households representing 28.0% and group households accounting for 4.6% of the total. The median household occupancy of 2.4 people is slightly lower than the Greater Melbourne median of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualification levels in Pascoe Vale are considerably higher than broader averages, with 40.8% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% across VIC. This education premium positions the community well to benefit from knowledge-based economic sectors. Bachelor degrees represent the most common qualification at 26.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational training is also well represented, with 27.0% of residents aged 15+ holding technical qualifications, split between advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (15.9%).

A high level of educational enrollment is observed locally, with 29.0% of residents currently studying in some form of structured education. Within this student population, 8.9% are in primary school, 6.5% are in higher education, and 6.3% are attending secondary school.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of the public transport network shows 72 active transit stops in Pascoe Vale, consisting of various bus options. These stops service 8 distinct routes, which accommodate 4,107 passenger journeys each week. Transport accessibility is high, with residents living an average of 177 meters from their nearest stop. As the suburb is primarily residential, most workers travel outside the area for employment, with private cars being the main transport mode at 80% and trains at 12%. The average number of vehicles per dwelling is 1.1, which is below the metropolitan Melbourne average. A high proportion of residents, 37.9%, worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect the pandemic conditions at that time.

Routes run at an average frequency of 586 journeys per day, which averages out to approximately 57 weekly trips for each transit stop.

Pascoe Vale's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Pascoe Vale's health outcomes align closely with national averages based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and chronic illness rates, with common health issues appearing typical overall, though exceeding the national average in older demographics, while private health coverage is high, encompassing roughly 57% of the population (~11,301 people).

The most frequent health issues reported by residents are mental health conditions and asthma, affecting 8.0 and 7.7% of the population respectively, while 72.0% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Residents under the age of 65 enjoy better than average health outcomes. The suburb contains 2,815 residents aged 65 and older, representing 14.1% of the population. Health outcomes for these seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the rest of the local community.

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale exhibits high levels of cultural diversity, with 32.0% of its residents born outside of Australia and 35.0% using a language other than English in their homes. Christianity is the most common religious affiliation, representing 48.6% of the community. Islam represents the most notable divergence from regional patterns, accounting for 8.1% of residents compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

Regarding ancestral backgrounds, the three largest ethnic groups in Pascoe Vale are Australian at 16.9%, English at 16.5%, and Italian at 14.6%, with the Italian proportion being much higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Other distinct cultural representations include Greek background at 4.6% (compared to 2.7% regionally), Lebanese background at 2.5% (compared to 0.8% regionally), and Maltese background at 1.6% (compared to 1.1% regionally).

Pascoe Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Pascoe Vale is 36 years, which is close to the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and slightly below the national median of 38. Compared to the Melbourne metropolitan area, Pascoe Vale has a higher share of people aged 35 - 44 (18.6%) but a lower share of people aged 15 - 24 (10.7%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort has increased from 17.2% to 18.6% of the population, while the 5 to 14 cohort decreased from 11.3% to 10.5%. Population projections suggest the age profile of Pascoe Vale will change by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort expected to grow the fastest, expanding by 66% (an addition of 1,579 residents) to reach a total of 3,956.