Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Pascoe Vale is around 19,970, reflecting an increase of 1,799 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was 18,171. This growth rate of 9.9% exceeds both the state average of 9.3% and the national average. The primary driver for this growth is overseas migration, contributing approximately 73.0% of overall population gains. By June 2025, AreaSearch estimated the resident population at 19,781 after examining the latest ERP data release by the ABS and validating additional 328 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 4,010 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch.

For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch predicts exceptional growth for the suburb, with an expected increase of 9,325 persons, reflecting a total increase of 45.8%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pascoe Vale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis reveals Pascoe Vale averaged around 141 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 709 homes. By FY26, 79 approvals have been recorded. The average annual increase in residents per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 was 0.8, indicating supply is meeting or exceeding demand. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $489,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market.

This year, there have been $425,000 in commercial approvals, showing minimal commercial development activity. In terms of dwelling types, 23.0% are detached and 77.0% attached, marking a significant shift from current housing patterns (48.0% houses). With approximately 113 people per dwelling approval, Pascoe Vale exhibits growth area characteristics. Population forecasts indicate it will gain around 9,136 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially influencing buyer competition and property prices.

Pascoe Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 18 projects likely to impact the area, with key ones including Coburg Health and Community Services Precinct, 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Assembly Broadmeadows, and M-City 2 - Oak Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Pascoe Vale demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Pascoe Vale has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.7% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Workforce participation was 73.7%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

A significant 37.9% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. The area shows strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Retail trade employs fewer locals than regionally, at just 8.2%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by resident-to-working population ratios. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, Pascoe Vale's labour force decreased by 0.7% and employment declined by 0.2%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point reduction in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years for Pascoe Vale, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Pascoe Vale suburb's median income among taxpayers is $61,952 according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended 30 June 2023. Average income stands at $75,380 in Pascoe Vale, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year ended 30 June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $67,912 (median) and $82,632 (average) as of March 2026. Census data from 2021 shows incomes in Pascoe Vale cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. Income distribution reveals that 34.0% of locals (6,789 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the broader area at 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, leaving disposable income at the 67th percentile nationally. Pascoe Vale's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Pascoe Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pascoe Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 47.9% houses and 52.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale was at 29.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.2% and rented ones at 35.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, above Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Pascoe Vale was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.4% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 28.0% and group households comprising 4.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pascoe Vale is notably high, with 40.8% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications as of the latest data point. This figure surpasses both national (30.4%) and Victorian state averages (33.4%). The area's educational advantage is reflected in its strong representation of Bachelor degree holders at 26.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.3% and graduate diplomas at 3.9%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 27.0% of residents aged 15 years and over holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (15.9%).

Educational participation is notably high in Pascoe Vale, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data point. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 6.5% in tertiary education, and 6.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 72 active transport stops operating in Pascoe Vale. These stops are served by 8 different bus routes, collectively providing 4,107 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 177 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 80%, while train accounts for 12%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 37.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 586 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 57 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pascoe Vale's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Pascoe Vale's health metrics align closely with national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence data.

The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average for older cohorts. Private health cover is very high in the area, with approximately 57% of the total population (~11,301 people) having it. Mental health issues are the most common medical condition, affecting 8.0% of residents, followed by asthma at 7.7%. About 72.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. There are 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,815 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting some challenges but ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale has a high level of cultural diversity, with 32.0% of its population born overseas and 35.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale, comprising 48.6% of the population. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 8.1% of Pascoe Vale's population versus the regional average of 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups in Pascoe Vale are Australian (16.9%), English (16.5%), and Italian (14.6%), with Italian being significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Notably, Greek (4.6% vs 2.7%), Lebanese (2.5% vs 0.8%), and Maltese (1.6% vs 1.1%) ethnic groups are also overrepresented in Pascoe Vale compared to Greater Melbourne.

Pascoe Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Pascoe Vale's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and modestly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (18.6%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the age group of 35 to 44 has increased from 17.2% to 18.6%, while the age group of 5 to 14 has decreased from 11.3% to 10.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Pascoe Vale's age profile will change significantly. The strongest projected growth is in the 45 to 54 cohort, with an increase of 66%, adding 1,579 residents to reach a total of 3,956.