Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of Pascoe Vale is estimated at around 19,933 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,762 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,171. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 19,488 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 290 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,002 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 9.7% growth since census is within 0.2 percentage points of the national average (9.9%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 73.0%.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends predict exceptional growth placing Pascoe Vale in the top 10% of national statistical areas with an expected increase of 9,523 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 45.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pascoe Vale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Pascoe Vale averaged approximately 141 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 709 homes. As of FY-26, 63 approvals have been recorded. This averages to around 0.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value for new properties is $489,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $425,000, reflecting minimal commercial development activity. Building activity shows 23.0% detached dwellings and 77.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns of 48.0% houses. Pascoe Vale has around 113 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a growth area. Population forecasts suggest Pascoe Vale will gain approximately 9,078 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Pascoe Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that could impact the area, with key ones being 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Coburg Health and Community Services Precinct, Assembly Broadmeadows, and M-City 2 - Oak Park. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Pascoe Vale demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Pascoe Vale has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.6% in the past year, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. As of December 2025, 11,808 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.1%, and a workforce participation rate of 74.5%.

A significant 37.9% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, retail trade employs only 8.2% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.8%.

The predominantly residential area may offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.8%, with employment declining by 0.4%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Pascoe Vale has a high national income level according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Pascoe Vale is $61,952, with an average income of $75,380. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $67,063 (median) and $81,599 (average). Census 2021 income data shows that incomes in Pascoe Vale cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 34.0% of locals, with 6,777 people earning between $1,500 and $2,999, aligning with the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income in Pascoe Vale. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 67th percentile nationally, and the suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Pascoe Vale displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Pascoe Vale, as per the latest Census, 47.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 52.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale was at 29.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.2% and rented ones at 35.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $400 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,100 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.4% of all households, including 31.3% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 28.0% and group households comprising 4.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Pascoe Vale is notably high, with 40.8% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data point (2021). This exceeds both national (30.4%) and Victorian state averages (33.4%). Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.3% and graduate diplomas at 3.9%. Vocational credentials are also common, with 27.0% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 15.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data point (2021). This includes 8.9% in primary education, 6.5% in tertiary education, and 6.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Pascoe Vale shows there are 72 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 8 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 4,107 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 177 meters from their nearest transport stop. As Pascoe Vale is predominantly residential, most commuting patterns show residents traveling outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation at 80%, while train use stands at 12%.

The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.1, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 37.9%, work from home, which may be reflective of COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages at 586 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 57 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pascoe Vale's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Pascoe Vale's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are typical but higher than average among older cohorts. Approximately 57% (~11,280 people) have private health cover, which is very high compared to national figures. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (8.0%) and asthma (7.7%). About 72.0% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Under-65s in Pascoe Vale have better-than-average health outcomes. As of 31 December 2020, 14.6% (2,910 people) are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Pascoe Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale has a high level of cultural diversity, with 32.0% of its population born overseas and 35.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale, accounting for 48.6% of people. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 8.1% of Pascoe Vale's population versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (16.9%), English (16.5%), and Italian (14.6%), with Italians being substantially higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Other notable ethnic groups include Greeks at 4.6% (regional average: 2.7%), Lebanese at 2.5% (regional average: 0.8%), and Maltese at 1.6% (regional average: 1.1%).

Pascoe Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Pascoe Vale's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pascoe Vale has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (18.5%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has grown from 17.2% to 18.5% of Pascoe Vale's population, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 19.2% to 17.8%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Pascoe Vale's age profile will evolve significantly, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 cohort (66%), adding 1,583 residents to reach a total of 3,975.