Pascoe Vale South

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Pascoe Vale South is around 11,115. This reflects an increase of 581 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,534. The current population estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS's latest ERP data release from June 2024, showing a resident population of 11,084 with an additional 57 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,656 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale South in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration contributing approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia's projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Considering these projections, Pascoe Vale South is forecasted to experience a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with an expected growth of 4,104 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 36.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pascoe Vale South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Pascoe Vale South averaged approximately 49 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021, totalling an estimated 247 homes. As of April 2026, 18 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good choice for buyers. The average construction cost value of new properties is around $595,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This year, there have been $2.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. New building activity shows 44.0% standalone homes and 56.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living and creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 80.0% houses. Pascoe Vale South has around 198 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to increase by 4,073 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 20 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include York Street Park and Mixed-Use Development in Pascoe Vale South, the 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Napier Park Masterplan and Community Hub, and Tram Route 55 Power Substation. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Pascoe Vale South demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Pascoe Vale South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 4.7% as of an unspecified date, with estimated employment growth of 4.3% over the past year based on AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, 6,417 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate aligned with Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 41.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment concentrations include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. The area has a particular specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Manufacturing, however, has limited presence at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 4.3% while labour force grew by 4.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4%, labour force by 2.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Pascoe Vale South's median income among taxpayers was $62,765 in financial year 2023. The suburb's average income stood at $76,687 during the same period. These figures are higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Pascoe Vale South would be approximately $67,943 (median) and $83,014 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows that incomes in Pascoe Vale South rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes all falling between the 73rd and 80th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 30.4% of the population (3,378 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999 per week. This is similar to the regional pattern where 32.8% fall within this income range. The suburb demonstrates considerable affluence with 35.9% earning over $3,000 per week. After housing costs, residents retain 86.9% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Pascoe Vale South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.5% houses and 19.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pascoe Vale South was at 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.1% and rented dwellings at 24.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure for Pascoe Vale South was $425, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 40.6% couples with children, 22.7% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.8%, consisting of 21.6% lone person households and 4.1% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 40.0% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and Victoria's rate of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.3% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 14.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 46 active transport stops operating within Pascoe Vale South, comprising a mix of light rail and buses. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, collectively providing 6,615 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 6% by train and 2% cycling. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high 41.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 945 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 143 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pascoe Vale South's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Pascoe Vale South shows positive outcomes overall.

Mortality rates and health conditions are largely in line with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are relatively low among the general population but higher among older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is high, with approximately 57% of the total population (~6,346 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (7.6%) and asthma (7.4%). Around 72.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Those under 65 have better-than-average health outcomes. About 15.9% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,767 people). While seniors face some health challenges, their outcomes rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pascoe Vale South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 23.6% of its population born overseas and 29.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale South, comprising 56.9% of the population, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups in Pascoe Vale South were English (17.3%), Australian (17.1%), and Italian (17.1%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 5.2%.

Notably, Greek (8.4%) and Maltese (1.8%) populations were overrepresented compared to the regional averages of 2.7% and 1.1%, respectively, while Lebanese population (1.7%) also exceeded the regional average of 0.8%.

Pascoe Vale South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Pascoe Vale South is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Pascoe Vale South at 13.1%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.4%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 13.5% of the population, and the 55-64 cohort has increased from 12.0% to 13.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 13.0% to 11.9%. Population forecasts for Pascoe Vale South indicate significant demographic changes by 2041. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 50%, reaching 2,383 people from 1,589.