Pascoe Vale South

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Pascoe Vale South statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 11,111 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 577 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,534. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 11,083 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 52 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 3,654 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for this area's population growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projected demographic shifts, the Pascoe Vale South (SA2) is forecasted to experience significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with an expected growth of 4,091 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 36.0% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Pascoe Vale South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Pascoe Vale South shows an average of around 49 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 247 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 18 approvals have been recorded. The area's population has declined recently, with new supply likely keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $595,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

This financial year has seen $2.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Building activity shows 44.0% standalone homes and 56.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a shift from the current 80.0% houses in the area, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. Pascoe Vale South has around 198 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area.

Population forecasts estimate an increase of 4,002 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pascoe Vale South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that may affect the region. Notable ones include York Street Park and Mixed-Use Development in Pascoe Vale South, a mixed-use development at 299 Pascoe Vale Road, Napier Park Masterplan and Community Hub, and Tram Route 55 Power Substation. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Pascoe Vale South demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Pascoe Vale South has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year, seeing a 4.7% employment growth.

As of September 2025, 6374 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, slightly below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to the region at 68.6%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Education & training has a significant presence, being 1.3 times the regional level, while manufacturing has limited representation with 5.2% employment compared to 7.2% regionally.

In the past year, employment increased by 4.7%, matching labour force growth, keeping unemployment stable at 0.8%. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's 3.0% employment rise and 0.3% unemployment increase. Statewide, Victoria saw a 1.13% year-on-year employment growth to November 25, adding 41950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, outpacing the national average of 0.14%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming constant population growth.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Pascoe Vale South had a median income among taxpayers of $62,765 and an average income of $76,687 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 during the same period. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income in Pascoe Vale South will be approximately $67,943 and the average income will be around $83,014, based on an 8.25% increase from the financial year 2023 using Wage Price Index growth. Census data from 2021 shows that incomes in Pascoe Vale South rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes all between the 73rd and 80th percentiles. In terms of income distribution, 30.4% of the population (3,377 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, which is similar to the regional pattern where 32.8% occupy this range. The suburb demonstrates considerable affluence with 35.9% earning over $3,000 per week. After housing costs, residents retain 86.9% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Pascoe Vale South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.5% houses and 19.5% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership stood at 37.6%, with 38.1% of dwellings under mortgage and 24.3% rented out. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, while the median weekly rent was $425. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a median household size of 2.7 people

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 40.6% couples with children, 22.7% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.8%, comprising 21.6% lone person households and 4.1% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 40.0% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and Victoria's rate of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.3% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas comprising 10.2% and certificates making up 14.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Pascoe Vale South transport analysis indicates that there are 46 active transport stops in operation within the area. These stops cater to a mix of light rail and bus services. A total of 11 individual routes service these stops, collectively facilitating 6,615 weekly passenger trips.

The transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 203 meters from their nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages 945 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly 143 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pascoe Vale South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pascoe Vale South shows better-than-average health outcomes, with lower prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to national averages.

However, older, at-risk cohorts have higher rates. As of 2016, approximately 57% (~6,344 people) had private health cover. Mental health issues and asthma were the most prevalent conditions, affecting 7.6% and 7.4% of residents respectively. About 72.1% reported no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Melbourne overall. The area has 15.2% (1,688 people) aged 65 and over, with health outcomes among seniors needing more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pascoe Vale South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 23.6% of its population born overseas and 29.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale South, making up 56.9% of the population, compared to None% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were English (17.3%), Australian (17.1%), and Italian (17.1%).

Notably, Greek (8.4%) was overrepresented in Pascoe Vale South compared to None% regionally, as were Maltese (1.8%) and Lebanese (1.7%).

Pascoe Vale South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Pascoe Vale South is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Pascoe Vale South at 12.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.6%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 13.3%, while the 5-14 age cohort has declined from 13.0% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Pascoe Vale South, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 47%, reaching 2,373 people from 1,611.