Pascoe Vale South

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Pascoe Vale South is around 11,146. This figure reflects a growth of 612 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,534. AreaSearch's analysis of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and additional validated addresses indicates this increase. The population density is 3,666 persons per square kilometer, placing Pascoe Vale South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 79% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Projected demographic shifts indicate significant population growth for Pascoe Vale South, with an expected increase of 4,095 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 35.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Pascoe Vale South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Pascoe Vale South averaged around 50 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years to June 2021, totalling an estimated 253 homes. As of July 2026, 11 approvals have been recorded. Population decline in recent years suggests demand has been met by new supply, offering variety for buyers. Average construction cost value per dwelling is $592,000, higher than regional norms, indicating quality-focused development.

This financial year saw $2.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Building activity comprises 44.0% standalone homes and 56.0% attached dwellings, catering to affordability and lifestyle changes. This shift from the current 80.0% houses suggests decreasing developable sites and increasing demand for diverse housing options. Pascoe Vale South's population density is around 185 people per dwelling approval.

Population forecasts indicate an increase of 3,971 residents by 2041. If development rates remain constant, supply may not keep pace with growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Pascoe Vale South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include the 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Napier Park Masterplan and Community Hub, York Street Park and Mixed-Use Development in Pascoe Vale South, and the Tram Route 55 Power Substation. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Pascoe Vale South demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Pascoe Vale South has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% as of June 2025, aligning with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Workforce participation stood at 68.6%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services. Notably, education & training has a significant presence, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing has limited presence at 5.2%, compared to the regional average of 7.2%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the difference between the Census working population and resident population counts. Over the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 6.6% while the labour force grew by 7.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, with the labour force growing by 4.0%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pascoe Vale South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Pascoe Vale South's median income among taxpayers was $62,756 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $76,693 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest that Pascoe Vale South's median income will be approximately $70,387, with an average income of around $86,019, based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% since financial year 2022. According to Census 2021 data, Pascoe Vale South's incomes rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes all falling between the 73rd and 80th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 30.4% of Pascoe Vale South's population (3,388 individuals) have incomes within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. This is similar to the regional pattern where 32.8% of the population falls into this income bracket. The locality demonstrates considerable affluence with 35.9% earning over $3,000 per week, which supports premium retail and service offerings in the area. After housing costs, residents retain 86.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Pascoe Vale South, as per the latest Census, 80.5% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 19.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. Home ownership in the area stood at 37.6%, with mortgaged properties at 38.1% and rented dwellings at 24.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Melbourne's metropolitan average, while the median weekly rent was $425. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a median household size of 2.7 people

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 40.6% couples with children, 22.7% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 40.0% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and Victoria's rate of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.3% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 14.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education. The area has two schools serving 1,212 students: Pascoe Vale South Primary School and Antonine College. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1038) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 46 active transport stops operating within Pascoe Vale South. These comprise a mix of light rail and bus services. Eleven individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 6,233 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 202 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 890 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 135 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pascoe Vale South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pascoe Vale South exhibits superior health outcomes with a lower prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages.

However, among older, at-risk cohorts, this prevalence is higher. Private health cover is prevalent, with approximately 57% (~6364 people) of the total population having it. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.6% and 7.4% of residents respectively. A significant majority (72.1%) report no medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.2% (1694 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Pascoe Vale South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 23.6% of its residents born overseas and 29.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pascoe Vale South, comprising 56.9% of the population, compared to None% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were English (17.3%), Australian (17.1%), and Italian (17.1%).

Notably, Greek (8.4%) was overrepresented compared to None% regionally, as were Maltese (1.8%) and Lebanese (1.7%).

Pascoe Vale South's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Pascoe Vale South is 39 years, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 cohort comprises 12.8% of the population in Pascoe Vale South, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, indicating an over-representation. Conversely, the 25-34 age group makes up 12.6%, showing under-representation relative to Greater Melbourne's average. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 12.0% to 13.3%. Meanwhile, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 13.0% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest significant demographic changes for Pascoe Vale South. Notably, the 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 47%, adding 756 people and reaching a total of 2,373 from its current figure of 1,616.