Pascoe Vale South

Population growth drivers in Pascoe Vale South are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census Pascoe Vale South's population is estimated at around 11,095 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 561 people (5.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,534 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 11,068, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 59 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,649 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 4,048 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting reflecting an increase of 36.2% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Pascoe Vale South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Pascoe Vale South has averaged around 48 new dwelling approvals each year, with an estimated 244 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 31 so far in FY-26. At an average of just 0.4 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $596,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. There have also been $2.4 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Recent construction comprises 45.0% detached houses and 55.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 80.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 203 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Future projections show Pascoe Vale South adding 4,021 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Pascoe Vale South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives. In total 20 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include 299 Pascoe Vale Road Mixed-Use Development, Napier Park Masterplan and Community Hub, York Street Park and Bell Street Land Sale, Pascoe Vale South, and Tram Route 55 Power Substation, with the below list detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Pascoe Vale South maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Pascoe Vale South features a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of 4.6%, and 3.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 6,423 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (72.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 41.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical. The area shows particularly strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. On the other hand, manufacturing is under-represented, with only 5.2% of Pascoe Vale South's workforce compared to 7.2% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, aggregated from broader statistical areas, over the 12 months to March 2026, employment increased by 3.6% while labour force increased by 3.7%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.1%, the labour force grew by 2.3%, and unemployment rose 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Pascoe Vale South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Pascoe Vale South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Pascoe Vale South shows a median taxpayer income of $62,765 and an average of $76,687 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is very high nationally, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $68,803 (median) and $84,064 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Pascoe Vale South, between the 73rd and 80th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 30.4% of locals (3,372 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen the broader area where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 35.9% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retain 86.9% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Pascoe Vale South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Pascoe Vale South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 80.5% houses and 19.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Pascoe Vale South was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (38.1%) or rented (24.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $425, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Pascoe Vale South's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Pascoe Vale South features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.2% of all households, comprising 40.6% couples with children, 22.7% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households comprising 4.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Pascoe Vale South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (40.0% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and that of VIC (33.4%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational pathways account for 24.3% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (14.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 46 active transport stops operating within Pascoe Vale South comprising a mix of lightrail and buses. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, collectively providing 6,615 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 6% by train and 2% cycling. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A high 41.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 945 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 143 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pascoe Vale South's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Pascoe Vale South residents, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results broadly in line with national benchmarks with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts , and the rate of private health cover found to be very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~6,335 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.6 and 7.4% of residents, respectively, while 72.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 15.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,686 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pascoe Vale South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pascoe Vale South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 23.6% of its population born overseas and 29.7% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Pascoe Vale South was found to be Christianity, which makes up 56.9% of people in Pascoe Vale South. This compares to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Pascoe Vale South are English, comprising 17.3% of the population, Australian, comprising 17.1% of the population, and Italian, comprising 17.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.2%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Greek is notably overrepresented at 8.4% of Pascoe Vale South (vs 2.7% regionally), Maltese at 1.8% (vs 1.1%) and Lebanese at 1.7% (vs 0.8%).

Pascoe Vale South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The 39-year median age in Pascoe Vale South is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 similarly very close to the 38-year national average. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (13.0% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (12.9%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 13.2% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Pascoe Vale South. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 50% (795 people), reaching 2,393 from 1,597.