Craigieburn - Central
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Craigieburn - Central reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Craigieburn - Central's population was around 8,303 as of Aug 2025. This showed an increase of 204 people from the 2021 Census figure of 8,099. The change was inferred from ABS' June 2024 estimate of 8,207 and 55 new addresses validated since the Census date. This resulted in a population density of 2,091 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.2% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For uncovered areas, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Craigieburn - Central is forecasted to increase by 3,175 persons, a total gain of 37.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Craigieburn - Central, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Craigieburn - Central has recorded approximately 13 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 67 homes over the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, and 10 so far in FY26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to demand, maintaining an adequate housing supply and creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $351,000, under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers.

This financial year, $1.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - Central has significantly less development activity, at 84.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes due to constrained new construction. This activity is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 92.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 429 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts indicate Craigieburn - Central will gain 3,079 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Craigieburn - Central has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are The Base Craigieburn, Aston Square Neighbourhood Centre, Stockland Cloverton, and Craigieburn Road Upgrade. Below is a list detailing those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment drivers in Craigieburn - Central are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Craigieburn - Central has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 9.5% as of June 2021, with an estimated employment growth of 3.5%.

As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 4.8%, which is 0.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Craigieburn - Central lags behind Greater Melbourne at 59.0% compared to 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. There is a significant specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.5%, while the labour force grew by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% with a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. As of Sep-25, state-level data shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, and the state unemployment rate is at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn - Central's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.8% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Craigieburn - Central has incomes below the national average. The median assessed income is $49,350 and the average income stands at $56,780. In contrast, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Craigieburn - Central would be approximately $54,339 (median) and $62,520 (average) as of March 2025. From the Census conducted on 10 August 2021, household income ranks at the 37th percentile with a weekly income of $1,523, while personal income sits at the 20th percentile. Distribution data shows that 36.0% of individuals in Craigieburn - Central earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (2,989 individuals). This is consistent with broader trends across the region where 32.8% fall into the same earnings band. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 37th percentile.

Craigieburn - Central is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Craigieburn - Central's dwelling structure in its latest Census report showed 92.5% houses and 7.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - Central was at 28.9%, with mortgaged properties at 43.5% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,834. Median weekly rent in Craigieburn - Central was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Craigieburn - Central's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn - Central features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.9% of all households, including 41.2% couples with children, 20.1% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.1%, with lone person households at 19.5% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Craigieburn - Central shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 33.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (22.9%).

Educational participation is high at 33.1%, including primary education (11.1%), secondary education (8.6%), and tertiary education (4.8%). The area has two primary schools, Willmott Park Primary School-Willmott Park Deaf Facility and Willmott Park Primary School, serving 635 students in total. Craigieburn - Central school demonstrates typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. Both primary schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 7.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.6, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn - Central has 23 active public transport stops. All these stops are serviced by buses operating along 6 different routes. Together, these routes facilitate 3,612 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing 217 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 516 bus trips daily across all routes, which amounts to approximately 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Craigieburn - Central's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Craigieburn - Central residents showed relatively positive health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among the general population. However, this was higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover was found to be very low, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 4,010 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 7.8% and 7.2% of residents respectively. A higher proportion, 71.2%, declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne at 76.3%. The area had a higher percentage of residents aged 65 and over, at 12.6% (around 1,044 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.8%. Health outcomes among seniors required more attention than the broader population due to presenting challenges.

Craigieburn - Central is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn-Central has a high level of cultural diversity, with 39.0% of its population born overseas and 44.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Craigieburn-Central, accounting for 46.8% of the population. However, the most notable overrepresentation is seen in the 'Other' category, which comprises 7.9% of the population compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.9%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are 'Other' at 25.7%, Australian at 18.0%, and English at 17.0%. Notably, Samoan (1.8%), Maltese (2.4%), and Sri Lankan (0.9%) ethnicities have higher representations in Craigieburn-Central compared to regional averages.

Craigieburn - Central hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Craigieburn-Central's median age in 2021 was 34 years, lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn-Central had a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.4%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (13.1%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 75 to 84 increased from 2.8% to 4.0%, while those aged 15 to 24 rose from 14.0% to 15.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 decreased from 14.9% to 14.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Craigieburn-Central, with the strongest growth projected for the 65-74 age group (75%), adding 478 residents to reach a total of 1,118.