Craigieburn - Central

An assessment of population growth drivers in Craigieburn - Central reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Craigieburn - Central's population is 8,303 as of Nov 2025. From the 2021 Census, this reflects a growth of 204 people (2.5%), with the population then being 8,099. This increase is inferred from ABS' June 2024 estimate of 8,207 and 55 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 2,091 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.2% to recent population gains in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict a significant increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed, with Craigieburn - Central expected to grow by 3,175 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 37.1% over 17 years based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Craigieburn - Central, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Craigieburn - Central has recorded approximately 20 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 103 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved so far in FY-26. Despite recent population decline, housing supply has been adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $250,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers. This financial year, $1.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - Central has significantly less development activity, 81.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This lower activity also reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 92.0% houses. The location has approximately 429 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area.

Future projections estimate Craigieburn - Central to add 3,079 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Craigieburn - Central has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are The Base Craigieburn, Aston Square Neighbourhood Centre, Craigieburn Road Upgrade, and Stockland Highlands Masterplanned Community. Details of the most relevant projects follow.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Craigieburn - Central are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Craigieburn - Central has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 9.5% as of September 2021, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0%.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 4.8%, which is 0.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. The workforce participation in Craigieburn - Central lags behind Greater Melbourne at 59.0% compared to 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. There is particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment levels increased by 1.0% and labour force increased by 1.6% during the year to September 2025, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn - Central's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2022 shows median income in Craigieburn - Central SA2 at $49,350 and average income at $56,780. In Greater Melbourne, median income was $54,892 and average income was $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in Craigieburn - Central SA2 is approximately $55,351 and average income is $63,684. According to the Census conducted on August 10, 2021, household income ranks at the 37th percentile ($1,523 weekly) and personal income at the 20th percentile. Distribution data shows that 36.0% of individuals earn between $1,500 to $2,999 per week. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 37th percentile.

Craigieburn - Central is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Craigieburn - Central's dwelling structure in 2016 comprised 92.5% houses and 7.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - Central was 28.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.5% and rented dwellings at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, below Melbourne metro's $1,834. Median weekly rent in Craigieburn - Central was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Craigieburn - Central features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.9% of all households, including 41.2% couples with children, 20.1% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.1%, with lone person households at 19.5% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Craigieburn - Central shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (22.9%). Educational participation is high, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (11.1%), secondary (8.6%), and tertiary (4.8%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn - Central has 23 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 3,612 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 217 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 516 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Craigieburn - Central's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Craigieburn - Central residents showed relatively positive health outcomes with a low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, but higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts. Private health cover was found to be very low in the area, approximately 48% (around 4,010 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 7.8 and 7.2% of residents respectively, while 71.2% reported being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 76.3% in Greater Melbourne. Seniors made up 12.6% of the population (1,044 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 10.8%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those for the broader population.

Craigieburn - Central is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn-Central has a high level of cultural diversity, with 39.0% of its population born overseas and 44.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Craigieburn-Central, comprising 46.8% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprises 7.9% of Craigieburn-Central's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 5.9%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (25.7%), Australian (18.0%), and English (17.0%). While Other is lower than the regional average of 36.9%, Australian is substantially higher than the regional average of 11.3%. Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Samoan at 1.8% compared to 1.3% regionally, Maltese at 2.4% versus 1.8%, and Sri Lankan at 0.9% against 1.1%.

Craigieburn - Central hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Craigieburn - Central's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - Central has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.4%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (13.1%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 2.8% to 4.0%, while the 15 to 24 age group increased from 14.0% to 15.1%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group declined from 14.9% to 14.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Craigieburn - Central, with the 65 to 74 age cohort projected to grow by 75%, adding 478 residents to reach a total of 1,118.