Craigieburn - West

Craigieburn - West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Craigieburn - West's population was around 15,330 as of November 2025. This showed an increase of 2,331 people, a 17.9% rise since the 2021 Census which reported 12,999 residents. The change was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 14,760 in June 2024 and additional 237 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density of 3,748 persons per square kilometer, placing Craigieburn - West in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. The area's growth exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.7% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate exceptional growth, placing Craigieburn - West in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 12,285 persons, reflecting a 76.4% increase over the 17 years based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

The level of residential development activity in Craigieburn - West was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Craigieburn - West averaged approximately 138 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 690 homes. As of FY26, 49 approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.2 new residents were associated with each home built between FY21 and FY25. This indicates a significant demand outpacing supply, which can put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings was $170,000, reflecting more affordable housing options in the area. In FY26, there have been $5.1 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating Craigieburn - West's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn - West records 13.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 74th percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating strong developer confidence. New building activity shows 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

With around 189 people per dwelling approval, Craigieburn - West exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Craigieburn - West is expected to grow by 11,715 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Craigieburn - West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are Merrifield City Centre, Merrifield, Merrifield Business Park, and True North Estate, as detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Craigieburn - West lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Craigieburn - West has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.7%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9% over the past year.

There are 6,953 employed residents, with an unemployment rate 3.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 60.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and manufacturing. Transport, postal & warehousing has a particularly high share of employment at 2.2 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented with only 6.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 1.9%, labour force by 2.2%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Statewide in Victoria, as of 25-Nov, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn - West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Craigieburn - West SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $51,991 and an average of $59,819 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. As of September 2025, estimates suggest median taxpayer income would be approximately $58,313 and average income $67,093, based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. In Census 2021, household income ranked at the 50th percentile ($1,752 weekly), while personal income was at the 26th percentile. The earnings profile showed that 40.5% of the population (6,208 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupied this bracket. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 78.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile.

Craigieburn - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Craigieburn - West's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, had 79.8% houses and 20.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn - West was 10.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 54.5% and rented ones at 34.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,900, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,834. Median weekly rent in Craigieburn - West was $381, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Craigieburn - West's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn - West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.4% of all households, including 53.5% couples with children, 17.3% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.6%, with lone person households at 14.3% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Craigieburn - West performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 31.4% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA3 area average of 24.3%. This reflects the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with vocational credentials held by 27.4% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (12.8%) and certificates (14.6%). Educational participation is high, with 37.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.0% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn-West has 46 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 3,878 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average being located 222 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 554 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

Craigieburn - West's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Craigieburn - West shows excellent health outcomes, especially for younger age groups with low prevalence of common conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 50%, or around 7,588 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (5.0%) and arthritis (4.5%). A total of 81.6% reported no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 76.3%. The area has 8.3%, or 1,280 people aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.8%. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention, the overall population fares well.

Craigieburn - West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn-West has a population where 57.6% were born overseas, with 69.9% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 41.3%. The 'Other' religious category is overrepresented at 11.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.9%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' leads with 46.3%, followed by Indian (12.1%) and Australian (10.3%). Notably, Sri Lankan (1.6%), Samoan (1.6%), and Lebanese (1.5%) ethnic groups have higher representations compared to regional averages.

Craigieburn - West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn-West has a median age of 32 years, which is notably younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and also significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn-West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.9%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (6.9%). According to data from the post-2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 12.0% to 13.2%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 18.5% to 16.5%. Demographic projections indicate that Craigieburn-West's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 age cohort, which is expected to increase by 123%, adding 1,977 residents to reach a total of 3,583.