Craigieburn

Craigieburn lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Craigieburn's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 72,600. This reflects an increase of 7,422 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 65,178. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as 71,336 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 692 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,048 persons per square kilometer. Craigieburn's growth rate of 11.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (9.7%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the Craigieburn statistical area (Lv2) expected to expand by 50,059 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 67.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Craigieburn was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Craigieburn has had around 363 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 1,818 homes were approved, with 92 so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 4.8 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

Demand significantly exceeds supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average value for new dwellings is $390,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $57.1 million, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn has 56.0% less construction per person, which usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

Recent construction comprises 77.0% detached houses and 23.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an average of 318 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Craigieburn is projected to grow by 48,979 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Craigieburn has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 57 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include True North Estate, Merrifield City Centre, Aston Square Neighbourhood Centre, and The Base Craigieburn. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Craigieburn lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Craigieburn's workforce is highly educated with a strong presence in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.6% as of September 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation from statistical areas.

As of September 2025, 35,137 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Craigieburn is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and transport, postal & warehousing. Notably, the area has a high specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, while labour force grew by 2.0%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from VIC as of 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, employment grew by 0.14%, with a national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts for May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Craigieburn's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023 for financial year 2023, the suburb of Craigieburn had a median income among taxpayers of $52,706 and an average income of $60,642. This was lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Craigieburn would be approximately $57,054 (median) and $65,645 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranked at the 53rd percentile ($1,798 weekly), while personal income was at the 28th percentile. Income analysis revealed that 40.0% of Craigieburn's population (29,040 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, aligning with regional trends where this cohort also represented 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Craigieburn, with only 80.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 49th percentile.

Craigieburn is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Craigieburn's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn was at 15.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.3% and rented ones at 29.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,834. Median weekly rent was $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Craigieburn's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.2% of all households, including 53.4% couples with children, 16.9% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.8%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households at 2.4%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 3.2.

Educational attainment in Craigieburn aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Craigieburn's residents aged 15+ have 27.3% university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 30.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 17.8%. Educational participation is high, with 36.4% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (13.2%), secondary (8.5%), and tertiary (5.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.2% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn has 204 active public transport stops. These include train and bus services. There are 17 different routes operating in total.

Each week, these routes provide 9,210 passenger trips combined. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 222 meters. On average, there are 1,315 trips per day across all routes. This means each stop has approximately 45 weekly trips.

Craigieburn's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Craigieburn, particularly for younger cohorts with low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 51% (~36,917 people) have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 5.9 and 5.1% of residents respectively. A total of 79.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 76.3%. Craigieburn has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 8.2% (5,953 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.8%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

Craigieburn is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn, as of the 2016 Census, had a population where 50.8% were born overseas. At home, 62.8% spoke languages other than English. Christianity was the predominant religion with 43.7%.

The category 'Other' made up 10.4%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 5.9%. In terms of ancestry, 'Other' was highest at 38.7%, followed by Australian (13.0%) and English (10.9%). Notably, Indian (10.8%), Samoan (1.7%), and Sri Lankan (1.4%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 6.5%, 1.3%, and 1.1% respectively.

Craigieburn hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (2.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 13.1% to 13.9%, while the 25-34 age group decreased from 17.0% to 14.8%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Craigieburn, with the strongest growth expected in the 45-54 age cohort, which is forecast to increase by 104%, adding 8,811 residents to reach a total of 17,306.