Craigieburn

Craigieburn lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, Craigieburn's population is estimated at around 72,452, reflecting an increase of 7,274 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents an 11.2% rise from the previous population count of 65,178. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 71,330 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validation of 692 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,043 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Craigieburn's growth rate since the 2021 census (11.2%) surpassed both national (8.9%) and state averages, positioning it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward, Craigieburn is expected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. By 2041, the suburb's population is projected to expand by 50,033 persons, reflecting a total increase of 67.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Craigieburn was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Craigieburn has seen approximately 357 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis. From FY-21 to FY-25, around 1,786 homes were approved, with another 71 approved in FY-26. This results in about 4.9 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed annually over the past five financial years.

The demand significantly exceeds supply, leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new dwellings is $391,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $52.4 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn has 57.0% less development activity per person.

The recent construction comprises 77.0% standalone homes and 23.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited for buyers seeking space. The area has approximately 349 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. By 2041, Craigieburn is projected to grow by 49,101 residents. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Craigieburn has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 57 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include True North Estate, Merrifield City Centre, The Base Craigieburn, and Aston Square Neighbourhood Centre. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Craigieburn are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Craigieburn has a well-educated workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 7.6% in June 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4% over the past year based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, there are 35,190 residents in work, and the unemployment rate is 3.0% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and transport, postal & warehousing. Employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing is particularly high, with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 5.3% of Craigieburn's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.4%, while labour force increased by 4.5%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer further insight into potential future demand within Craigieburn. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Craigieburn's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Craigieburn had a median taxpayer income of $52,749 and an average income of $60,691. Nationally, the median was $54,892 and the average was $73,761. In Greater Melbourne, these figures were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $59,163 (median) and $68,071 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Craigieburn's household income at the 53rd percentile ($1,798 weekly), with personal income at the 28th percentile. The largest income segment comprises 40.0% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (28,980 residents). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 49th percentile.

Craigieburn is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Craigieburn's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Craigieburn stood at 15.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 55.3% and rented ones at 29.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,834. Median weekly rent in Craigieburn was $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $369. Nationally, Craigieburn's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Craigieburn features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.2% of all households, including 53.4% couples with children, 16.9% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.8%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational attainment in Craigieburn aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Craigieburn trail's residents aged 15+ have 27.3% with university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 30.2% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 17.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 36.4% currently enrolled in formal education: 13.2% in primary, 8.5% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education. Sixteen schools serve 11,505 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 988) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes eleven primary, two secondary, and three K-12 schools. Note that 'n/a' for enrolments refers to parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Craigieburn has 194 operational public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. They are served by 18 different routes that together facilitate 15,329 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 230 meters from the nearest stop. On a daily basis, there are an average of 2,189 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 79 weekly trips per individual stop.

Craigieburn's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Craigieburn, particularly for younger cohorts who have a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 51% (~36,856 people) of the total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 5.9 and 5.1% of residents respectively. A majority, 79.5%, report being completely free from medical ailments compared to 76.3% in Greater Melbourne. Craigieburn has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 8.2% (5,941 people) than Greater Melbourne's 10.8%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Craigieburn is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Craigieburn has a high level of cultural diversity, with 50.8% of its population born overseas and 62.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Craigieburn, accounting for 43.7% of the population. Notably, the category 'Other' comprises 10.4% of Craigieburn's population, higher than the regional average of 5.9%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (38.7%), Australian (13.0%), and English (10.9%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences in representation: Indian (10.8% vs regional 6.5%), Samoan (1.7% vs 1.3%), and Sri Lankan (1.4% vs 1.1%) are overrepresented in Craigieburn compared to Greater Melbourne.

Craigieburn hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Craigieburn has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Craigieburn has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (2.2%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 13.1% to 13.9%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 17.0% to 14.8%. By 2041, significant demographic shifts are projected for Craigieburn, with the 45-54 age cohort expected to grow by 104%, adding 8,827 residents to reach a total of 17,304.