Padbury

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padbury reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to investigations of ABS demographic releases for the wider region, alongside newly validated addresses sourced by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Padbury has a population calculated to be approximately 9,724 in May 2026. This represents a growth of 1,098 individuals (12.7%) relative to the Census in 2021, when the population was recorded at 8,626. This population movement is determined from a resident population of 9,714, estimated by AreaSearch using the latest ABS ERP release (June 2025) coupled with 33 verified new addresses registered post-Census. Such a population count translates to a density of 1,620 persons per square kilometer, a figure that is higher than the typical location analyzed across the country by AreaSearch. The 12.7% rate of expansion in the suburb of Padbury since the 2021 census was quicker than the national trend of 9.3%, as well as the SA3 territory, making it a regional growth leader. The expansion of the population in the suburb of Padbury was chiefly propelled by natural increase, which was responsible for roughly 52.0% of the overall population gains in recent times.

AreaSearch incorporates ABS and Geoscience Australia demographic forecasts for each SA2 region, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the base point. For SA2 territories lacking this coverage, and to calculate expansion in the years after 2032, AreaSearch applies cohort-specific growth rates published by the ABS in its Greater Capital Region projections (published in 2023, utilizing 2022 data). Factoring in the anticipated age-group transitions, the suburb of Padbury is expected to experience population growth above the median of national statistical localities, with an expected increase of 1,300 residents by 2041 using combined SA2 projections, representing a total rise of 13.3% across the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padbury when compared nationally

Analysis by AreaSearch of ABS building permit records allocated from statistical data indicates that Padbury averages approximately 39 home permits per year, amounting to about 196 properties over the last 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 22 approvals have been registered. With an average of 4.8 new occupants per year arriving for each finished home over the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), demand is outstripping new supply, which routinely creates price escalation and intensifies buyer competition, while new properties carry an average construction value of $401,000, indicating that developers are focusing on the higher-end market tier. Additionally, commercial approvals worth $1.2 million have been logged this financial year, reinforcing the mainly residential orientation of the area.

In comparison to Greater Perth, Padbury registers elevated building volumes (39.0% higher than the regional average on a per-capita basis over the 5 year period), which helps maintain buyer options while supporting established property values, though recent construction speed has moderated. Recent residential building is made up of 93.0% detached houses and 7.0% semi-detached properties or units, maintaining the low-density suburban character of the neighborhood which appeals to buyers seeking extra space. With about 447 residents per single home permit, Padbury behaves like an established market.

Future forecasts indicate that Padbury will gain 1,290 residents by 2041 based on the most recent quarterly calculation by AreaSearch. Construction levels are matching the projected growth rates, though house hunters could face tougher competition as the population expands.

Padbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Local performance is heavily shaped by developments in public facilities, major construction works, and municipal planning strategies. In total, 10 projects have been tracked by AreaSearch as having a likely impact on this locality. Significant developments include the Regents Garden Padbury Residential Aged Care Facility, the expansion of Westfield Whitford City, the Whitfords Activity Centre Precinct (West) Redevelopment, and the concluding phases of the Harbour Rise Masterplanned Community, with the list below highlighting the most significant undertakings.

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Padbury ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Padbury features a highly qualified labor force, strong representation in core services, an unemployment rate of only 3.0%, and an annual employment expansion rate estimated at 3.9%, based on AreaSearch compilations of local statistical data. In March 2026, 5,467 local residents were employed, while the unemployment rate sat 1.2% lower than the Greater Perth metric of 4.2%, and labor force participation was close to typical levels (73.2% compared to 70.2% in Greater Perth). According to Census statistics, a minor 9.0% of workers operated from home, though the influence of pandemic restrictions should be taken into account.

The primary sectors employing local residents are healthcare & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The neighborhood displays a particularly high concentration of workers in construction, with employment representation reaching 1.5 times the regional norm. Conversely, retail trade accounts for only 7.4% of the local workforce, which is lower than the Greater Perth average of 9.3%. The highly residential nature of the locality means that local job opportunities are relatively sparse, as shown by comparing the count of working residents against local job numbers in the Census.

Based on AreaSearch calculations of SALM and ABS statistics gathered from surrounding areas, the 12 months leading to March 2026 saw employment grow by 3.9% and the labor force expand by 3.8%, with the unemployment rate remaining virtually constant. This differs from Greater Perth, which saw a 2.0% increase in employment, a 2.5% rise in the labor force, and a 0.4 percentage point lift in unemployment. National workforce forecasts released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional perspective on prospective employment trends in Padbury. These forecasts, which span five and ten-year horizons, have been modeled against local employment distributions to project future trends. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the expected growth rates vary widely by industry. Projecting these industry-level patterns onto the local employment profile suggests employment for residents will grow by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (note that this represents a direct weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not incorporate localized population adjustments).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The most recent postcode-level ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 demonstrate that incomes in the suburb of Padbury are exceptionally high on a national scale, with a median of $58,714 and an average of $78,500. This compares to a median of $60,748 and an average of $80,248 across Greater Perth. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year 2023, current projections suggest figures of approximately $65,131 (median) and $87,080 (average) as of March 2026. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual earnings in Padbury were positioned around the 69th percentile across Australia. Looking at income brackets, the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly earnings range contains 33.7% of the population (3,276 people), which aligns with wider regional trends where 32.0% fall into this bracket. Housing costs consume 14.4% of earnings, while strong household income ranks residents in the 72nd percentile for disposable funds, and the local SEIFA income metric sits in the 7th decile.

Padbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Residential architecture in Padbury at the time of the latest Census consisted of 92.3% detached houses and 7.6% alternative housing styles (including semi-detached properties, units, and other formats), compared to 77.8% detached houses and 22.1% alternative styles in the Perth metropolitan area. Home ownership rates in Padbury significantly outpaced the metropolitan average at 32.8%, with the remaining properties occupied by people with mortgages (50.4%) or tenants (16.8%). The median monthly home loan payment in the neighborhood was higher than the Perth metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rental cost was $390, compared to metropolitan figures of $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Padbury mortgage payments exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are higher than the national benchmark of $375.

Padbury features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Families comprise the bulk of households at 77.3% of the total, which includes 35.8% couples raising children, 28.2% couples without children at home, and 12.1% single parent households. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 22.7% of homes, with single-person households at 20.2% and share houses representing 2.4%. The median household occupancy of 2.6 residents aligns perfectly with the average across Greater Perth.

The educational profile of Padbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Higher education qualifications have been attained by 28.8% of residents aged 15+ in Padbury. Bachelor degrees represent the most common qualification at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Practical and vocational training is also highly represented, with 39.0% of the population aged 15+ holding technical credentials, comprising advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (26.6%).

Enrolment rates in studies are quite high, with 28.2% of the local population actively participating in academic courses. This consists of 10.4% of residents in primary schooling, 7.6% in secondary schools, and 4.4% enrolled in higher education programs.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transit records show 51 operational transit stops located inside Padbury, consisting of bus services. These stops are linked to 9 distinct routes, which combine to support 1,819 weekly passenger journeys. Local transit connections are classified as excellent, with households situated an average of 197 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the residential character of the neighborhood, most workers travel out of the area, with private cars remaining the primary travel mode at 80%, followed by train travel at 13%. Car ownership sits at an average of 1.6 vehicles per household. A minor 9.0% of the workforce operates from home, based on 2021 Census data that could reflect pandemic conditions.

Daily transit services average 259 trips across all routes, which translates to roughly 35 passenger journeys per week for each transit stop.

Padbury's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Assessments of health statistics show positive outcomes throughout Padbury, according to AreaSearch evaluations of mortality rates and the prevalence of long-term illnesses, with both younger and older demographics recording low occurrences of widespread health issues, and private medical insurance uptake is exceptionally high, covering approximately 58% of the population (~5,674 people).

The primary medical diagnoses reported in the neighborhood were mental health conditions and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 7.3% of the population, respectively, while 71.9% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, matching the 71.9% average across Greater Perth. Residents under the age of 65 display better health statistics than average. Seniors aged 65 and older make up 17.1% of the community (1,662 people). Health ratings among these senior citizens are positive, with national comparisons showing outcomes similar to the wider community.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Padbury was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Padbury exhibits a higher level of cultural diversity than most suburban property markets, with 11.2% of residents using a non-English language at home and 32.8% of the population born outside Australia. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 43.5% of the local population. The most prominent statistical divergence is in Judaism, which is practiced by 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

Regarding ethnic lineage and parental country of birth, the three most common ancestries in Padbury are English at 31.8%, Australian at 24.3%, and Irish at 9.2%. Notable differences in ethnic concentrations also exist, with Welsh ancestry representing 0.9% of Padbury (compared to 0.7% across the region), South Australian representing 0.9% (compared to 1.0%), and New Zealand heritage at 1.0% (compared to 0.8%).

Padbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age of 38 years in Padbury is comparable to the Greater Perth median of 37 and matches the national median of 38. Compared to the wider Perth area, Padbury has an elevated proportion of residents aged 35 - 44 (17.3%) but a lower representation of individuals aged 25 - 34 (11.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket has risen from 9.5% to 11.3% of the local population, while the 75 to 84 cohort grew from 4.5% to 6.1%. In contrast, the 55 to 64 group shrank from 11.2% to 9.3%, and the 25 to 34 demographic decreased from 13.1% to 11.5%. By 2041, Padbury is projected to experience clear changes in its age profile. Leading these changes, the 75 to 84 cohort is expected to grow by 65% (382 people), increasing to 976 from 593, while both the 5 to 14 and 35 to 44 age categories are expected to contract.