Padbury

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padbury reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch's validation of new addresses, Padbury's estimated population as of Nov 2025 is around 9,636. This reflects an increase of 1,010 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,626. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 9,519 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 31 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,606 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padbury's growth rate of 11.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.7%). Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 52.0%.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and post-2032 estimates, AreaSearch uses ABS' Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. With current demographic trends, an above median population growth is projected for the Padbury statistical area (Lv2), with an expected increase of 1,382 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.1% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padbury when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Padbury shows an average of around 39 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 196 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. This results in an estimated 4.4 new residents arriving per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. The supply is substantially lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

The average construction value of new homes is $401,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In this financial year, $1.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Perth, Padbury has slightly more development, measuring 38.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This balances buyer choice with support for current property values, although building activity has slowed in recent years. Recent construction comprises 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 436 people per dwelling approval, Padbury shows a developed market. Future projections estimate an addition of 1,265 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Padbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Regents Garden Padbury Residential Aged Care Facility, Harbour Rise Masterplanned Community (final stages), Chichester Park Skate Facility, and Whitfords Activity Centre Precinct (West) Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Padbury ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Padbury has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.7%, lower than the Greater Perth average of 4%.

Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 4.5%. As of September 2025, 5,382 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Greater Perth's rate. Workforce participation in Padbury is 68.9%, slightly higher than Greater Perth's 65.2%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Notably, construction employs 1.5 times the regional average. In contrast, retail trade employs only 7.4% of local workers, below Greater Perth's 9.3%. Analysis from AreaSearch shows that over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.5%, while labour force grew by 3.8%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Perth where employment rose by 2.9% and unemployment marginally increased. State-level data from WA as of 25-Nov-25 indicates employment contracted by 0.27%, with the state unemployment rate at 4.6%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Padbury suburb has high incomes nationally. The median income is $58,714 and the average income is $78,500. In comparison, Greater Perth has a median income of $60,748 and an average income of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 9.62% from June 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $64,362 (median) and $86,052 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Padbury's household, family, and personal incomes are at the 69th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 33.7% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is consistent with broader trends in the area (32.0%). Housing expenses account for 14.4% of income. Residents' strong earnings place them at the 72nd percentile for disposable income. Padbury's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Padbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Padbury, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.6% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Perth metro's 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padbury stood at 32.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.4% and rented dwellings at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, lower than Perth metro's average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Padbury was $390, compared to Perth metro's $400. Nationally, Padbury's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Padbury features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.3% of all households, including 35.8% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households at 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Perth average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Padbury exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Tertiary education reaches 28.8% of residents aged 15+ in Padbury. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 39.0% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.4% while certificates make up 26.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Padbury public transport analysis shows 52 active stops operating within the area, all of which are bus routes. These stops are served by nine individual routes that collectively facilitate 1,819 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically situated 197 meters from their nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 259 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padbury is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Padbury shows better-than-average health results, with both younger and older residents having low rates of common health issues.

Private health insurance coverage is high, at approximately 58% (around 5,623 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health problems and asthma, affecting 7.4% and 7.3% of residents respectively. About 71.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 71.5% in Greater Perth. Around 17.1% of Padbury's population is aged 65 or over (1,647 people), lower than the 20.1% in Greater Perth. Seniors' health outcomes are above average, similar to those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Padbury was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Padbury's population showed higher cultural diversity than most nearby areas, with 11.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 32.8% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Padbury, comprising 43.5% of its population. Notably, Judaism was present at 0.1%, similar to Greater Perth's figure.

Regarding ancestry, the top groups were English (31.8%), Australian (24.3%), and Irish (9.2%). Some ethnic groups had notable differences in representation: Welsh (0.9% vs regional 1.1%), South African (0.9% vs 1.8%), and New Zealand (1.0% vs 0.9%) were overrepresented in Padbury compared to the wider region.

Padbury's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Padbury is close to Greater Perth's average of 37 years, similar to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Perth, Padbury has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (17.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.3%). Between the 2016 and 2021 Census periods, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 increased from 4.5% to 5.9%, while those aged 35 to 44 grew from 16.3% to 17.5%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25 to 34 decreased from 13.1% to 11.3%, and those aged 55 to 64 dropped from 11.2% to 9.5%. By 2041, Padbury's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 77%, reaching 1,007 people from 568. Those aged 65 and above will comprise half of the projected population growth. Meanwhile, declines are projected for residents aged 5 to 14 and those under 4 years old.