Duncraig

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to the analysis by AreaSearch, Duncraig has a population of approximately 17,646 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 1,664 people (10.4%) from the 15,982 people recorded in the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated using the ABS estimated resident population of 17,630 from June 2025 alongside 74 validated new addresses identified since the Census. The resulting population density stands at 2,306 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the typical density of national locations evaluated by AreaSearch. The local expansion rate of 10.4% since the 2021 census outpaced the national benchmark of 9.3%, positioning the suburb as a regional growth leader. This population rise was chiefly powered by overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 84.0% of the total demographic gains, though all other contributors, such as natural increase and interstate migration, also recorded positive growth.

AreaSearch implements projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia for each SA2 locality, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline. For any SA2 regions lacking this specific data, and to project development beyond 2032, AreaSearch applies cohort-specific growth rates from the latest Greater Capital Region projections released by the ABS in 2023 using 2022 data. Future demographic patterns suggest a population rise slightly below the national median, with the locality projected to grow by 1,864 residents by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, which translates to a total increase of 10.5% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

Dwelling approvals in Duncraig have run at an average of roughly 46 annually, totaling 230 homes approved during the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 26 recorded so far in FY-26. Because an average of 5.5 new residents per year have arrived for each built dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand outstrips supply, which generally drives up property values and intensifies competition among buyers, with new builds averaging a construction value of $298,000. Furthermore, commercial approvals have reached $7.7 million during the current financial year, highlighting that the locality remains predominantly residential.

Relative to Greater Perth, Duncraig has 13.0% less new development (per person) and ranks in the 33rd percentile of evaluated regions nationwide, which restricts options for prospective buyers and bolsters demand for existing residences. This level of activity is also lower than the national average, indicating a mature market and hinting at prospective development limitations. Newly approved construction consists of 81.0% detached dwellings and 19.0% townhouses or apartments, which preserves the suburban character of the area and its focus on spacious family residences. With approximately 513 people per approval, Duncraig displays the characteristics of a mature property market.

Looking forward, Duncraig is projected to add 1,848 residents by 2041 based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. If the current pace of building continues, housing supply might not keep up with population expansion, which could exacerbate buyer competition and support upward pressure on prices.

Duncraig has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and planning schemes significantly impact area performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects likely to influence the local area. Principal developments include the Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Duncraig Adventure Hub, 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, and the Duncraig Senior High School Redevelopment, with the list below highlighting the most relevant projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Duncraig performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Duncraig features a highly educated labor force with a substantial share of professional services, an unemployment rate of only 1.7%, and an estimated employment expansion of 3.8% over the prior year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 9,619, while the unemployment rate was 2.5% below the Greater Perth average of 4.2%, and labor force participation closely matched the Greater Perth level of 70.2%. Census data showed that a modest 12.4% of residents worked from home, although this figure may be influenced by Covid-19 restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical. The suburb displays a strong concentration in the professional & technical sector, with employment rates 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing represents a small share of the workforce at 2.4% compared to 4.7% regionally. The location is predominantly residential and offers relatively few local jobs, as seen in the comparison of the Census working population against the resident population.

AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data shows that during the 12 months ending March 2026, employment grew by 3.8% and the labor force expanded by 3.8%, leaving the unemployment rate virtually unchanged. By comparison, Greater Perth recorded employment growth of 2.0% and labor force growth of 2.5%, alongside a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia released in May-25 provide additional context regarding future demand trends in Duncraig. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary widely by sector. Applying these industry-specific trends to the employment profile of Duncraig indicates local employment should rise by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (note that this simple weighting extrapolation is illustrative and does not incorporate local population forecasts).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to the latest postcode-level ATO data released for financial year 2023, the median taxpayer income in the Duncraig SA2 is $64,608, and the average is $86,224. This ranks among the highest rates in the country, comparing to a median of $60,748 and average of $80,248 in Greater Perth. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 stand at approximately $71,670 (median) and $95,648 (average). Based on 2021 Census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Duncraig rank highly, placing between the 73rd and 87th percentiles nationally. The largest income cohort comprises 27.3% of residents (4,817 people) earning between $1,500 - 2,999, mirroring the wider region where this bracket accounts for 32.0%. Local economic strength is underscored by the 40.0% of households that earn high weekly incomes of over $3,000, which supports local retail spending. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 88.0% of their income, indicating high disposable funds, and the area is positioned in the 9th decile for the SEIFA income index.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The mix of housing in Duncraig at the time of the latest Census consisted of 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (such as semi-detached homes and apartments), compared to the Perth metropolitan average of 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Furthermore, home ownership in Duncraig stood well above the Perth metro rate at 42.2%, with remaining residences being mortgaged (45.5%) or rented (12.3%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,208 was higher than the Perth metro average of $1,907, while the median weekly rent was $460 compared to the Perth metro average of $350. Nationally, mortgage costs in Duncraig are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rental costs are also above the national average of $375.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 81.8% of the total, consisting of 43.4% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.2%, with lone person households at 16.6% and group households at 1.7%. The median household size of 2.8 people exceeds the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The educational profile of the suburb is distinct within the region, as university graduation rates (37.7% of residents aged 15+) surpass the WA average of 27.9% and the SA4 regional average of 29.0%, showing a strong local emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees are held by 25.4% of residents, followed by postgraduate degrees (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational and technical training is also highly represented, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational qualifications, split between advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Participation in education is high, with 30.4% of the population currently enrolled in study. This includes 11.3% in primary schools, 10.2% in secondary schools, and 4.5% attending tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in Duncraig include 95 active stops, consisting of various bus options. These stops are served by 6 unique routes, which together provide 1,387 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 202 meters from the nearest stop. Because Duncraig is primarily residential, most workers commute out of the suburb, with cars remaining the main transport mode at 76% and train travel at 16%. Car ownership averages 1.7 per household, which is higher than the regional average. A relatively low 12.4% of residents work from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect the pandemic context.

The average frequency of public transport services is 198 runs per day across all routes, which corresponds to approximately 14 weekly runs per individual stop.

Duncraig's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health metrics show excellent outcomes across Duncraig, according to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, which indicates low occurrence of common illnesses across all age brackets. The rate of private health insurance is high at approximately 62% of the population (10,940 people), compared to 59.0% in Greater Perth and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions locally, affecting 7.4 and 7.0% of the population respectively, while 72.0% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. The working-age population exhibits strong health profiles with minimal chronic illness. Seniors aged 65 and over constitute 21.3% of the community (3,762 people), higher than the 16.1% recorded in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among this older demographic are positive, with national health rankings matching those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Duncraig was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig displays higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 11.1% of the population speaking a non-English language at home and 33.7% born outside Australia. Christianity is the primary religion, representing 48.4% of residents. The most distinct religious overrepresentation is Judaism, which accounts for 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

Regarding ancestry (parental country of birth), the three most common backgrounds in Duncraig are English at 31.6%, Australian at 23.4%, and Irish at 8.4%. Notable differences in other groups include Welsh ancestry at 1.1% of the Duncraig population (compared to 0.7% regionally), South Australian ancestry at 1.8% (compared to 1.0%), and Dutch ancestry at 1.8% (compared to 1.5%).

Duncraig's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Duncraig is 42 years, which is older than the Greater Perth average of 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 5 - 14 age bracket is highly represented at 15.4% compared to Greater Perth, while the 25 - 34 cohort is less common at 6.5%. Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age bracket has risen from 10.7% to 13.9% of the population, and the 75 to 84 cohort has grown from 6.2% to 8.3%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 group fell from 12.2% to 10.5% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 11.1% to 9.9%. Demographic projections for 2041 indicate significant changes for Duncraig, with the 85+ cohort expected to rise by 172% (768 people) to reach 1,217 from 448. The combined 65+ cohorts will make up 64% of total population growth, pointing to an aging local profile, whereas the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 groups are projected to contract.