Duncraig

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Duncraig's population is approximately 17,646. This represents an increase of 1,664 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,982. The growth was inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 17,630 in June 2025 and an additional 74 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,306 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Duncraig's growth rate of 10.4% since the 2021 census exceeds the national average of 9.3%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of national areas to 2041, with the area expected to expand by 1,864 persons reflecting a gain of approximately 10.5% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

Duncraig averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25230 homes were approved, with an additional 24 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 5.4 new residents arrived annually for each dwelling constructed during this period.

This has led to significant demand exceeding supply, typically resulting in price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $298,000. In the current financial year, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating Duncraig's primarily residential nature. When compared to Greater Perth, Duncraig has 13.0% less new development per person.

Nationally, it ranks among the 32nd percentile of areas assessed, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower activity reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. The majority of new building activity consists of detached dwellings (81.0%), with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 19.0%, sustaining Duncraig's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. Currently, there are around 502 people per approval in Duncraig, indicating a mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Duncraig is projected to grow by 1,848 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Duncraig has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Fourteen projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Duncraig Adventure Hub, 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, and Duncraig Senior High School Redevelopment.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Duncraig performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Duncraig's workforce is well-educated with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 1.7% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%.

As of that date, 9,550 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4%, lower than Greater Perth's 4.1%. Workforce participation in Duncraig is similar to Greater Perth's 69.7%. According to Census responses, 12.4% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries among Duncraig residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services.

The latter has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence at 2.4%, compared to the regional average of 4.7%. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment in Duncraig increased by 4.2% while labour force increased by 4.2%. Unemployment remained essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 2.3% and labour force growth of 2.6%, with a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Duncraig's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023 shows Duncraig SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $64,608 and an average of $86,224. These figures are among the highest in Australia, with Greater Perth's median being $60,748 and average being $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates for Duncraig would be approximately $71,670 (median) and $95,648 (average) as of March 2026. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes in Duncraig rank between the 73rd and 87th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 27.3% of locals (4,817 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.0%. Economic strength is evident with 40.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.0% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Duncraig, as per the latest Census data, 91.9% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 8.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Perth metropolitan area's figures of 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duncraig stood at 42.2%, with mortgaged properties at 45.5% and rented ones at 12.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,208, exceeding the Perth metro average of $1,907. Median weekly rent in Duncraig was $460 compared to $350 in Perth metro. Nationally, Duncraig's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,208 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and median rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.8 percent of all households, including 43.4 percent couples with children, 28.4 percent couples without children, and 9.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.2 percent, with lone person households at 16.6 percent and group households at 1.7 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 37.7% among residents aged 15+, surpassing both the WA average of 27.9% and the SA4 region average of 29.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas comprise 12.3% while certificates account for 19.5%.

Educational participation is notably high at 30.4%, including 11.3% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Duncraig has 95 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by six routes, offering 1,387 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport access is good, with residents on average 202 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Cars are the dominant mode at 76%, while 16% use trains. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional norm.

Only 12.4% work from home (2021 Census data). Service frequency is 198 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 14 weekly trips per stop.

Duncraig's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results for Duncraig based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with very low prevalence across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (10,940 people), compared to 59.0% in Greater Perth and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4% and 7.0% of residents respectively, while 72.0% report being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the 71.9% in Greater Perth.

Working-age residents show low chronic condition prevalence. Duncraig has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.3%, compared to 16.1% in Greater Perth (3,762 people). Health outcomes among seniors are strong, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Duncraig was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig, surveyed in Aug-2016, had 11.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home. In the same period, 33.7% were born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 48.4%.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 0.3% in Greater Perth. For ancestry, the top groups were English (31.6%), Australian (23.4%), and Irish (8.4%). Notably, Welsh (1.1%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.7%. Similarly, South Australian (1.8%) and Dutch (1.8%) groups had higher representations than their respective regional averages of 1.0% and 1.5%.

Duncraig's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Duncraig is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years and also considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 5-14 age group makes up 15.4% of the population in Duncraig, compared to Greater Perth, while the 25-34 age group is less prevalent at 6.5%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 13.9%, and the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.2% to 8.3%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has declined from 12.2% to 10.5%, and the 55 to 64 age group has dropped from 11.1% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Duncraig, with the 85+ age group expected to grow by 172% (adding 768 people), reaching a total of 1,217 from 448. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 64% of the total population growth, reflecting Duncraig's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.