Duncraig
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Duncraig's population is approximately 17,310 as of Aug 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,328 people from the 2021 Census total of 15,982, reflecting a growth rate of 8.3%. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 17,263 residents in June 2024 plus 73 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,262 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Duncraig has shown steady growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outperforming its SA3 area. Recent population gains were predominantly driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 81.7% to overall increases.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 (with base year 2022), and ABS Greater Capital Region projections from 2023 (based on 2022 data) for areas not covered by this data or for estimates post-2032. Future population trends indicate a median increase, with Duncraig expected to expand by 1,991 persons to 2041, recording an 11.2% total gain over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

Duncraig has averaged approximately 77 new dwelling approvals per year. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 385 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-20 to FY-25, and three approvals so far in FY-26. On average, 5.4 new residents are associated with each home built during these five financial years. Supply has substantially lagged demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $530,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. This financial year has seen $7.7 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Perth, Duncraig has 12.0% less new development per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and interest in existing homes. This activity is also below average nationally, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New building activity consists of 81.0% detached dwellings and 19.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Duncraig's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 502 people per approval, Duncraig indicates a mature market. Population forecasts suggest Duncraig will gain 1,944 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Duncraig has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could impact the area, with key ones being Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, Duncraig Senior High School Redevelopment, and Duncraig Adventure Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Duncraig performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Duncraig has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 1.6%, with estimated employment growth of 4.1% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 9,483 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.2 percentage points lower than Greater Perth's 3.9%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Perth's 65.2%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, with the latter having employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence, with 2.4% employment compared to 4.7% regionally.

Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 4.1% while labour force increased by 4.0%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 3.7% and labour force growth of 3.8%, with a 0.1 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows WA employment contracted by 0.82% (losing 14,590 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National unemployment is 4.5%, with national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's projections from May 2025 forecast national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Duncraig's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7%% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 indicates Duncraig's median income among taxpayers is $61,044. The average income in the same period was $82,703. Both figures rank high compared to national averages. Greater Perth's median income was $58,380 and average income was $78,020 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Duncraig would be approximately $68,131 (median) and $92,305 (average) as of March 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Duncraig rank between the 74th and 88th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 27.3% of locals (4,725 people), earning $1,500 - 2,999 annually. This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.0%. Duncraig's economic strength is evident through 40.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000. After housing costs, residents retain 88.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Duncraig, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 29 August 2016, comprised 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Perth metropolitan area had 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duncraig was at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.5% and rented ones at 12.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of the latest figures available, was $2,208. The median weekly rent figure stood at $460. Nationally, Duncraig's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.8 percent of all households, including 43.4 percent couples with children, 28.4 percent couples without children, and 9.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.2 percent, with lone person households at 16.6 percent and group households comprising 1.7 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.7.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 37.7% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Western Australia average of 27.9% and the SA4 region average of 29.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 31.8% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 19.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.3% in primary, 10.2% in secondary, and 4.5% in tertiary education. Duncraig has a robust network of seven schools educating approximately 5,961 students, with an above-average socio-educational condition index (ICSEA: 1096). The educational mix includes four primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. As an education hub, Duncraig offers 34.4 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 19.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 94 active transport stops in Duncraig, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 1,385 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 202 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 197 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Duncraig is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Duncraig shows above-average health outcomes with both young and elderly cohorts having low prevalence of common conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of its total population (10,611 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4% and 7.0% of residents respectively. 72.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of ailments, slightly higher than Greater Perth's 71.5%. Duncraig has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.8% (3,770 people) compared to Greater Perth's 20.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Duncraig was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig has a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 11.1% of its population speaking languages other than English at home and 33.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Duncraig, comprising 48.4% of its people. Judaism, however, is overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to Greater Perth's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (31.6%), Australian (23.4%), and Irish (8.4%). Notably, South African, Welsh, and Dutch ethnicities have similar representations in Duncraig as they do regionally: 1.8%, 1.1%, and 1.8% respectively.

Duncraig hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Duncraig is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years, and also older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 8.5% of the population in Duncraig, a stronger representation compared to Greater Perth, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 6.3%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 13.1%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 6.2% to 8.5%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has decreased from 12.2% to 10.9%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 11.1% to 9.8%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Duncraig, with the 85+ age group projected to grow by 202%, reaching 1,254 people from a previous figure of 415. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 67% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.