Duncraig

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Duncraig's population is around 17,456 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,474 people (9.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,982 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,263 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,281 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Duncraig has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 0.8% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 81.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilising the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 1,991 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 10.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

Duncraig has averaged around 46 new dwelling approvals per year, with 230 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 20 so far in FY-26. Given an average of 5.4 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $298,000. Additionally, $7.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

When measured against Greater Perth, Duncraig has 12.0% less new development (per person) and ranks in the 32nd percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This activity is likewise lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New building activity consists of 81.0% detached dwellings and 19.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. At around 502 people per approval, Duncraig indicates a mature market.

Looking ahead, Duncraig is expected to grow by 1,798 residents through to 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Duncraig has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, Duncraig Senior High School Redevelopment, and Duncraig Adventure Hub, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Duncraig performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Duncraig possesses a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.7%, and 4.2% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 9,550 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.4% below Greater Perth's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Perth's 71.9%. Based on Census responses, a low 12.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Meanwhile, transport, postal & warehousing has a limited presence with 2.4% employment compared to 4.7% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 4.2% while the labour force increased by 4.2%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Perth experienced employment growth of 2.3% and labour force growth of 2.6%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Duncraig. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Duncraig's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Duncraig SA2's median income among taxpayers is $64,608, with an average of $86,224. This is among the highest in Australia, and compares to Greater Perth's median of $60,748 and average of $80,248. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $70,823 (median) and $94,519 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Duncraig, between the 73rd and 87th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 27.3% of locals (4,765 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 32.0%. Economic strength emerges through 40.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Duncraig, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Perth metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Duncraig was well beyond that of Perth metro, at 42.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (45.5%) or rented (12.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Perth metro average at $2,208, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $460, compared to Perth metro's $1,907 and $350. Nationally, Duncraig's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 81.8% of all households, comprising 43.4% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.2%, with lone person households at 16.6% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.6.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (37.7% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the WA average of 27.9% and that of the SA4 region (29.0%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 95 active transport stops operating within Duncraig, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 1,387 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 202 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 76%, with 16% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 12.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 198 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Duncraig's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Duncraig, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (10,822 people). This compares to 59.0% across Greater Perth and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.4% and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 72.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.9% across Greater Perth. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 22.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,897 people), which is higher than the 16.3% in Greater Perth. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Duncraig was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 11.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 33.7% born overseas. The main religion in Duncraig is Christianity, which makes up 48.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.3% across Greater Perth.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Duncraig are English, comprising 31.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 23.4% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of Duncraig (vs 0.7% regionally), South Australian at 1.8% (vs 1.0%) and Dutch at 1.8% (vs 1.5%).

Duncraig's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Duncraig is significantly above Greater Perth's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 75 - 84 age group shows strong representation at 8.8% compared to Greater Perth, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.7% to 13.5% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 6.2% to 8.8%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 10.8% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 7.4% to 6.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Duncraig. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 170% (789 people), reaching 1,254 from 464. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 66% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.