Duncraig

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duncraig reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Duncraig's population was approximately 17,310 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,328 people from the 2021 Census total of 15,982, reflecting a growth rate of 8.3%. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,263 in June 2024 and an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,262 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Duncraig has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outperforming the SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch utilises growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends indicate a likely increase just below the median of national areas. By 2041, Duncraig is expected to expand by 1,991 persons, reflecting an overall gain of 11.2% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Duncraig when compared nationally

Duncraig averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 230 homes approved during this period and an additional 14 approved so far in FY26. On average, 5.4 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed annually between FY21 and FY25. This has led to demand significantly exceeding new supply, resulting in price growth and increased buyer competition.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $298,000. In FY26, $7.7 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Perth, Duncraig has 12.0% less new development per person and ranks in the 32nd percentile nationally when assessed for areas with new developments, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. New building activity consists of 81.0% detached dwellings and 19.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Duncraig's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

With around 502 people per approval, Duncraig indicates a mature market. By 2041, Duncraig is projected to grow by 1,944 residents according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Duncraig has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include Glengarry Shopping Centre Redevelopment, 57 Marri Road Aged and Dependent Persons Dwellings, Duncraig Senior High School Redevelopment, and Duncraig Adventure Hub. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Duncraig performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Duncraig has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 1.6%, lower than the Greater Perth average of 4.0%.

Over the past year, employment grew by 3.7%. As of September 2025, 9,456 residents are employed, with a local unemployment rate of 2.3% and workforce participation similar to Greater Perth's 65.2%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and professional & technical services, the latter being particularly concentrated at 1.5 times the regional average. Transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence with 2.4% employment compared to 4.7% regionally.

Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.7% while labour force grew by 3.5%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Perth had employment growth of 2.9%. Statewide in WA, from November 25, employment contracted by 0.27%, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Duncraig's employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.7% in five years and 13.8% in ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Duncraig SA2 had a median income of $61,044 and an average income of $82,703. These figures are among the highest in Australia. Greater Perth's median income was $58,380 with an average of $78,020. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $69,712 (median) and $94,447 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Duncraig's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 73rd and 87th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 27.3% of locals (4,725 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to the surrounding region at 32.0%. Economic strength is evident with 40.0% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 88.0% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duncraig is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Duncraig, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, consisted of 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compared to Perth metropolitan area's 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duncraig stood at 42.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (45.5%) or rented (12.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,208 as of the latest data available, exceeding the Perth metropolitan average of $2,080. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure for Duncraig was recorded at $460, compared to Perth metro's $400. Nationally, Duncraig's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duncraig features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.8% of all households, including 43.4% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.2%, with lone person households at 16.6% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Perth average of 2.7.

Duncraig shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 37.7%, higher than the Western Australia average of 27.9% and the SA4 region's rate of 29%. The most common qualifications are bachelor degrees (25.4%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 31.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Duncraig shows that there are 94 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 6 individual routes providing service to the area. The combined weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 1,385.

The accessibility of transport in Duncraig is rated as good, with residents on average located 202 meters from their nearest transport stop. The service frequency across all routes averages 197 trips per day, which equates to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Duncraig is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Duncraig shows superior health outcomes with both young and elderly cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of the total population (10,611 people), surpassing the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.4 and 7.0% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 72.0%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 71.5% across Greater Perth. Duncraig has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.8% (3,770 people), compared to the Greater Perth average of 20.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in Duncraig are particularly strong, outperforming those of the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Duncraig was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duncraig's population, as per the 2016 Census, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas with 11.1% speaking a language other than English at home and 33.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 48.4%. Judaism, although small at 0.1%, was proportionally similar to Greater Perth's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.6%), Australian (23.4%), and Irish (8.4%). Notably, Welsh (1.1%) and South African (1.8%) groups had equal representation compared to the regional average, while Dutch was slightly higher at 1.8% versus 1.7%.

Duncraig's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Duncraig is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Perth's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 8.5% of the population in Duncraig, compared to Greater Perth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age cohort makes up 6.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.7% to 13.1%, while the 75 to 84 age group increased from 6.2% to 8.5%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 10.9%, and the 55 to 64 age group dropped from 11.1% to 9.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Duncraig, with the 85+ age group expected to grow by 202%, reaching 1,254 people from 415. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 67% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.